Let's Trade Options | Page 285 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

BELLA SYSTEM. Let's try it, let's improve it! 118 replies

Let's Trade The News V 0.4 ! 479 replies

Any Options, Bull Options & Option Bit 39 replies

Let's Trade The News! 46 replies

Let a trade develop? 17 replies

Attachments: Let's Trade Options
Exit Attachments

Let's Trade Options

  • #5,681
  • Oct 29, 2014 12:39pm Oct 29, 2014 12:39pm


Wall Street is already thinking about QE4

"As the Fed gets set to stop QE, Wall Street is already speculating the central bank could crank up a new bond-buying program to take its place if the economy sours. "

Yeah...
Attached Image

First another leg down... before QE4
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,682
  • Oct 29, 2014 1:16pm Oct 29, 2014 1:16pm
Hm...

U.S. stocks fall after Fed decision

"NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The U.S. stock market moved decidedly lower after the Federal Reserve decided to end the last batch of its bond-buying program and kept the Fed funds rate at zero. In the accompanying statement, for the first time, the Fed explicitly said it could raise interest rates sooner than markets expect if the economy grows faster than the bank projects."


Read what Fed says on ending QE stimulus

"The Committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee’s employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated."


well, any thoughts... anybody?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,683
  • Oct 29, 2014 1:43pm Oct 29, 2014 1:43pm
Quoting StrayDog
However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee’s employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated." well, any thoughts... anybody?
lol, it's back to "good news = bad news" - any good econ data in the US is just more reason for the Fed to raise ff rate sooner. Well, we'll see.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,684
  • Oct 29, 2014 1:59pm Oct 29, 2014 1:59pm
I "optimistically" expected a bigger reaction... yeah, hopes...

Anyway, BIDU today... If I had a bigger account (TF, check your PM), then I would short a Nov 200/250 strangle for like $3.80 credit. Maybe put strike even lower... like on 190. That strangle would require about $2,650 of margin. But, if mofo stays in EM, it will lose probably more than 1/2 of value in single day. Much less credit with weeklies and only 2 days left for making adjustments. Will paper trade that... otherwise, I am interested in shorting a call spread for live acc, probably $2.5 wide, close to current price.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,685
  • Oct 29, 2014 1:59pm Oct 29, 2014 1:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} lol, it's back to "good news = bad news" - any good econ data in the US is just more reason for the Fed to raise ff rate sooner. Well, we'll see.....
So, here we are: previous endgames for QE1 and QE2 dunked the markets into a -10-15% funk.

Do you sell some SPY bear call spreads? Maybe just buy some SSO or SPY or QQQ or IWM puts outright?

Look around for bloated speculative equity names to catch a rich drop on? If you wait til tomorrow morning you'll already be a gap down....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,686
  • Oct 29, 2014 2:05pm Oct 29, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} So, here we are: previous endgames for QE1 and QE2 dunked the markets into a -10-15% funk. Do you sell some SPY bear call spreads? Maybe just buy some SSO or SPY or QQQ or IWM puts outright? Look around for bloated speculative equity names to catch a rich drop on? If you wait til tomorrow morning you'll already be a gap down....?
Don't know... this NQ 100 is so resilient right now, it is just nerve wrecking... Shorting it @ 4100 was nice play today... but I already shorted it... much lower.

Also I expected VIX to go higher, even all of this FOMC blah blah was not anything unexpected... will sit tight for now.

Earnings
BIDU and V today AH, MA and COP tomorrow BMO. COP has such a cheap options...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,687
  • Oct 29, 2014 2:10pm Oct 29, 2014 2:10pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} So, here we are: previous endgames for QE1 and QE2 dunked the markets into a -10-15% funk. Do you sell some SPY bear call spreads? Maybe just buy some SSO or SPY or QQQ or IWM puts outright? Look around for bloated speculative equity names to catch a rich drop on? If you wait til tomorrow morning you'll already be a gap down....?
I already have Nov SPY and IWM long puts, all part of prior bull put spreads and the short puts sold off near worthless. If we get a drop over the next days those will be worth something & I could sell some puts against them. Also have long PBR and EWZ puts from prior dismantled spreads.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,688
  • Oct 29, 2014 2:12pm Oct 29, 2014 2:12pm
Calendars example

TWTR Oct31/Nov7 41 put calendar... was bought for $0.16, sold today for $0.42... now trades for $0.53... So it can be used for earnings, directionally...
Will try that same combo, with weeklies, for some other stock.

Also - what would happen in case of no-move? On Single and Double Calendars? Since on diagram biggest wins are if stock moves almost to the short strike.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,689
  • Edited 2:52pm Oct 29, 2014 2:39pm | Edited 2:52pm
Quoting StrayDog
Also - what would happen in case of no-move? On Single and Double Calendars? Since on diagram biggest wins are if stock moves almost to the short strike.
You have to watch out for that center dip zone in the DC's - at least make sure you are above b/e in there - if your dip is well above b/e in the projection you at least have a good chance of having it work out that way in reality.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,690
  • Oct 29, 2014 2:56pm Oct 29, 2014 2:56pm
Yipe, another rally... just who buys now... VIX under 15 again...


I just entered a short strangle for BIDU... 190/260 for Nov expiry... $1.95 credit ($0.90 for put and $1.05 for call, ignore values on pic)
If everything goes according to plan, will close tomorrow. POP 86%...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BIDU-short-strangle.png Size: 75 KB


Estimated move is $13... my short strikes are $35 away... So - let us play.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,691
  • Edited 3:24pm Oct 29, 2014 3:10pm | Edited 3:24pm
Quoting StrayDog
So - let us play.
good luck on BIDU - I am actually sitting on lots of dry powder, might do something on LNKD tomorrow. Yep, not much of a panic off the FOMC. Santa Claus rally train might just be getting under way. But we'll see. Anyway, I will be surprised if there is not one more push for all-time highs for the S&P.

edit: Actually, I'm not so sure....I see markets sliding AH. I would not also be surprised to see markets tank. I have nothing bullish in the way, except for a pile of EWZ call calendars thumbing their nose at me...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,692
  • Oct 29, 2014 5:33pm Oct 29, 2014 5:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} good luck on BIDU - I am actually sitting on lots of dry powder, might do something on LNKD tomorrow. Yep, not much of a panic off the FOMC. Santa Claus rally train might just be getting under way. But we'll see. Anyway, I will be surprised if there is not one more push for all-time highs for the S&P. edit: Actually, I'm not so sure....I see markets sliding AH. I would not also be surprised to see markets tank. I have nothing bullish in the way, except for a pile of EWZ call calendars thumbing their nose at me...
They could at least retrace the Bullard spike - get that done in the next 2 weeks & still have time for a Santa rally.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,693
  • Oct 30, 2014 12:16am Oct 30, 2014 12:16am
Brazil CB surprises with a 25 bp hike to the SELIC - wow 11.25% - and that is supposedly market-friendly....

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102134522?trk...opnews%25253A1#.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,694
  • Edited 12:46am Oct 30, 2014 12:33am | Edited 12:46am
BABA boom? I get my best stock research from USA Today... BABA ER's 11/4, bmo.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/c...lers/18142057/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,695
  • Oct 30, 2014 6:54am Oct 30, 2014 6:54am
Well... who would expect this:

Apple CEO: "I’m proud to be gay, and I consider being gay among the greatest gifts God has given me"

AAPL is down a bit in premarket trading...

So, IS GAY OK?
I mean OK for Apple CEO?

We will find today in another exciting episode of Wall Street Drama
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,696
  • Oct 30, 2014 8:03am Oct 30, 2014 8:03am
Very interesting article

A Once In A Generation Change For Stocks

Summary

  1. The Federal Reserve is currently undergoing a monumental change in its monetary policy priorities.
  2. This shift marks a major departure from the focus that has defined the Fed’s work for more than a generation.
  3. This transition will have dramatic implications for years if not decades to come on financial markets that have become so heavily dependent on the persistently generous support of monetary policy.
  4. Stock investors will almost certainly be required to work much harder to generate consistently positive returns than has been required over the past few decades.

Author:
"But given the fact that stocks are currently trading at lofty valuations, the likely move without the support of further policy stimulus is to the downside as stocks seek to find their true equilibrium price. In recognition of this fact, the most desirable outcome for the Fed, particularly if they wish to close the inequality gap moving forward, is to let the air out of the stock market very slowly in fits and starts over the next few years. Such is the makings for the long, slow, grinding bear market that would mark the third and final leg lower in the traditional secular bear market cycle, as the cleansing process is finally allowed to play out along the way."

Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,697
  • Oct 30, 2014 8:28am Oct 30, 2014 8:28am
Quoting StrayDog
the most desirable outcome for the Fed, particularly if they wish to close the inequality gap moving forward, is to let the air out of the stock market very slowly in fits and starts over the next few years. Such is the makings for the long, slow, grinding bear market that would mark the third and final leg lower in the traditional secular bear market cycle, as the cleansing process is finally allowed to play out along the way."
Bring it on. I have thought this ever since J. Yellen started publicly fretting about income inequality in the US...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,698
  • Oct 30, 2014 8:34am Oct 30, 2014 8:34am
Quoting StrayDog
I just entered a short strangle for BIDU... 190/260 for Nov expiry... $1.95 credit ($0.90 for put and $1.05 for call, ignore values on pic) If everything goes according to plan, will close tomorrow. POP 86%... {image} Estimated move is $13... my short strikes are $35 away... So - let us play.
Well, I am certain I closed than too soon, but I closed it for $0.95 few moments ago.

Edit: - OH NOW IT MOVES... o yeah baby - I closed it RIGHT ON TIME... cry me a river BIDU... gonna trow firecrackers now... not because of money, but finally a good timing

Nice. Who would say BIDU could be a ER's no-mover? Well, no move in first 1 second after open...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,699
  • Oct 30, 2014 8:37am Oct 30, 2014 8:37am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Bring it on. I have thought this ever since J. Yellen started publicly fretting about income inequality in the US...
I think for us - it is better (or maybe just the same) to have slow grinding bear market than slow grinding bull market. As option traders. But we will adapt to anything.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,700
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:16am Oct 30, 2014 9:16am
Watching FB, I still have Nov $71 long puts & they are worth selling, maybe do that today if FB can push down toward $73.

Thought about doing a UVXY bull put spread, price of the puts jumps around on that crazy shit.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
9 traders viewing now