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GBP/JPY

  • #1,761
  • Oct 22, 2014 2:40am Oct 22, 2014 2:40am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} This should go down now.
Yes, we had to go at 172.60 for then falling, little higher than expected.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...g-minutes.html
  • #1,762
  • Oct 22, 2014 2:46am Oct 22, 2014 2:46am
Quoting MaximeCau
{quote} Yes, we had to go at 172.60 for then falling, little higher than expected. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...g-minutes.html
Nice page ... Geppy just made a lower low ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,763
  • Oct 22, 2014 2:57am Oct 22, 2014 2:57am
You'll find that 171.8 is very hard to break. Failure to break could set up more range trade crap. Otherwise, 170.5/6 then break to 170.8 ish . Under there and 170.2 it's down
  • #1,764
  • Oct 22, 2014 3:09am Oct 22, 2014 3:09am
Quoting Mpt
You'll find that 171.8 is very hard to break. Failure to break could set up more range trade crap. Otherwise, 170.5/6 then break to 170.8 ish . Under there and 170.2 it's down
You are right, I saw this bounce 20 minutes ago and decided to TP. The market makers will probably not allow everyone to join the money train without kicking and screaming. I will wait for a pullback and then reload - after a lower low, this could work out. If not we go straight through, but banking shorts will not hurt me as much as turning winners into losers.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,765
  • Oct 22, 2014 3:12am Oct 22, 2014 3:12am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} You are right, I saw this bounce 20 minutes ago and decided to TP. The market makers will probably not allow everyone to join the money train without kicking and screaming. I will wait for a pullback and then reload - after a lower low, this could work out. If not we go straight through, but banking shorts will not hurt me as much as turning winners into losers.
It really might push straight through
  • #1,766
  • Oct 22, 2014 3:20am Oct 22, 2014 3:20am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} It really might push straight through
Very possible, but too dangerous to jump back exactly at this point I think. Green pips are green pips now.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,767
  • Oct 28, 2014 10:39am Oct 28, 2014 10:39am
Hello,

I am long at 173.65 after daily engulfing.
TP 175.47 SL 171.83

Anyone else?
  • #1,768
  • Oct 28, 2014 11:06am Oct 28, 2014 11:06am
Wednesday 29th October
EUR/USD: 1.2645 (1.2BLN), 1.2680 (400M), 1.2700-25 (3BLN), 1.2750 (356M)
USD/CHF: 0.9475 (323M).
GBP/USD: 1.6200 (825M)
EUR/GBP: 0.7800 (250M),
AUD/USD: 0.8800 (229M).
NZD/USD: 0.7900 (564M)
USD/JPY: 107.00 (762M), 107.25 (325M), 108.00 (769M).
EUR/JPY: 136.45 (225M)
  • #1,769
  • Oct 28, 2014 11:13am Oct 28, 2014 11:13am
Quoting nbfx
Wednesday 29th October EUR/USD: 1.2645 (1.2BLN), 1.2680 (400M), 1.2700-25 (3BLN), 1.2750 (356M) USD/CHF: 0.9475 (323M). GBP/USD: 1.6200 (825M) EUR/GBP: 0.7800 (250M), AUD/USD: 0.8800 (229M). NZD/USD: 0.7900 (564M) USD/JPY: 107.00 (762M), 107.25 (325M), 108.00 (769M). EUR/JPY: 136.45 (225M)
I apologize if this is a dumb question...
But how is this information to be interpreted?

Are those levels the new support/resistance?
  • #1,770
  • Oct 28, 2014 11:58am Oct 28, 2014 11:58am
Quoting nbfx
Wednesday 29th October EUR/USD: 1.2645 (1.2BLN), 1.2680 (400M), 1.2700-25 (3BLN), 1.2750 (356M) USD/CHF: 0.9475 (323M). GBP/USD: 1.6200 (825M) EUR/GBP: 0.7800 (250M), AUD/USD: 0.8800 (229M). NZD/USD: 0.7900 (564M) USD/JPY: 107.00 (762M), 107.25 (325M), 108.00 (769M). EUR/JPY: 136.45 (225M)
Quoting tritono666
{quote} I apologize if this is a dumb question... But how is this information to be interpreted? Are those levels the new support/resistance?
option expiry, I think
cmiiw
  • #1,771
  • Oct 28, 2014 12:34pm Oct 28, 2014 12:34pm
im short 174.62, s/l 175.05, t/p 173.62
  • #1,772
  • Oct 28, 2014 12:46pm Oct 28, 2014 12:46pm
Rising wedge formation, with 175 key resistance approaching.

Short it from the top trend line, and buy from the bottom of it, and watch how price reacts to the opposite edge as it approaches it, if it breaks through, maybe a chance to ride it through any potential breakout... just an idea

Overall, I'm bullish on this pair, assuming it doesn't start making new lows again on the daily chart. Weekly shows very bullish as well...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYH1.png Size: 60 KB
  • #1,773
  • Oct 28, 2014 1:14pm Oct 28, 2014 1:14pm
I will look for bullish reversal in the 174.10-173.96 area, to ride up to 175. This is my guess, anyway, as I expect the bulls to be ready and waiting around the weekly gap open...
  • #1,774
  • Oct 28, 2014 2:54pm Oct 28, 2014 2:54pm
Following a simple daily engulfing trading strategy, my TP is set-up to 175.5 .
I now see how important 175 is...
  • #1,775
  • Oct 28, 2014 3:10pm Oct 28, 2014 3:10pm
Quoting tritono666
Following a simple daily engulfing trading strategy, my TP is set-up to 175.5 . I now see how important 175 is...
Good for you! I like simple

Daily engulfing should be a high probability strategy that will have a good win percentage. It is a strategy I considered using. Also entering on a retrace, can significantly improve your R:R. These things happen all the time if you watch several pairs.

Something I considered doing is only entering if there was a 50% retrace. That way, I decrease my risk by 50%, and exponentially increase my reward. A 1:1 becomes 1:3, a 1:2 becomes a 1:5, etc...
  • #1,776
  • Oct 28, 2014 3:10pm Oct 28, 2014 3:10pm
is this in up ternd or what do you think
  • #1,777
  • Oct 28, 2014 4:08pm Oct 28, 2014 4:08pm
Overall bearish on this pair and this rising wedge is just a continuation pattern in my opinion. Shorted the top of the wedge at the 50% and previous highsfor a break and continuation of the down move.



Quoting benaiah
Rising wedge formation, with 175 key resistance approaching. Short it from the top trend line, and buy from the bottom of it, and watch how price reacts to the opposite edge as it approaches it, if it breaks through, maybe a chance to ride it through any potential breakout... just an idea Overall, I'm bullish on this pair, assuming it doesn't start making new lows again on the daily chart. Weekly shows very bullish as well... {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy short.jpg Size: 147 KB
  • #1,778
  • Oct 28, 2014 4:59pm Oct 28, 2014 4:59pm
Quoting ElonMusketee
Overall bearish on this pair and this rising wedge is just a continuation pattern in my opinion. Shorted the top of the wedge at the 50% and previous highsfor a break and continuation of the down move. {quote} {image}
Thanks for sharing your view... I agree we should see a drop to the downside (probably) when the wedge breaks. But rising wedges are not guaranteed, as nothing is in Forex

The weekly chart looks bullish to me, i.e. pin bar, and going up each week, 2 weeks in a row positive, counting this week unless it drops below 173.97.

As far as whether it's uptrend or downtrend, it depends on what time frame and how far you zoom in/out. I'll trade it both ways regardless. I'm currently short on the M5 chart. And as I mentioned above, I'll be looking for a bullish reversal to ride it back up to 175.

Happy trading
  • #1,779
  • Oct 28, 2014 5:15pm Oct 28, 2014 5:15pm
Quoting ElonMusketee
Overall bearish on this pair and this rising wedge is just a continuation pattern in my opinion. Shorted the top of the wedge at the 50% and previous highsfor a break and continuation of the down move. {quote} {image}
By the way, I do like the chart you posted, very simple and to the point. I also like your conviction.

And although I do expect this wedge to break on downside, they aren't that reliable in determining how much they'll break, i.e. hard to determine profit target based on the pattern in itself. Different than other patterns. And I would not be at all surprised if it broke upwards first, which is entirely possible - and it may just change the shape of the wedge, with the final outcome of breaking on the downside. I've seen this happen before with volatile pairs...
  • #1,780
  • Oct 28, 2014 5:52pm Oct 28, 2014 5:52pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} By the way, I do like the chart you posted, very simple and to the point. I also like your conviction. And although I do expect this wedge to break on downside, they aren't that reliable in determining how much they'll break, i.e. hard to determine profit target based on the pattern in itself. Different than other patterns. And I would not be at all surprised if it broke upwards first, which is entirely possible - and it may just change the shape of the wedge, with the final outcome of breaking on the downside. I've seen this happen before...

Thanks for the feedback. Targets to the downside on this break are purely hypothetical meaning that the support around 170 confluences with some key fib levels for a bounce and a harmonic completion around 179. Of course if wedge breaks but fails to break previous high around 172.94 which is also the weekly pivot IŽll bail
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