GoldenTulip 15m Scalping

nice thread.....
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what's a great thread!
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TFV is basically a moving average of 1 set to the median price. Not sure how that helps but currently testing it.

I enahanced and simplified my 15m strategy dramatically, giving me better results with less efforts.

Still testing live now, but i'll share it here as soon as my book (in Dutch) on Forex is finished. A few weeks.

Hello,

I have restarted trading with the footing or basis of Golden Tulip since last september. From feb 2014 untill sept. 2014 i had sort of a sabattical. Traders can afford such luxury ;-). This sabattical and especially the restart with trading recently has brought new insights in my personal trading structure as well as in the math i used with it.

Golden Tulip has evolved. I am not using technical indicators anymore, and found out that technical analysis is very limited and in fact can never lead to substantial profits if not traded with a lot of subconscious creativity added to them.

For the 10% traders that do make substantial profits, indicators have no other task than to confirm things that good traders do naturally but unconscious. Technical indicators are visually confirming the choices we make by looking at a chart, like musicians look at sheet music. We look at bars, but see a flow. Musicians read the keys on a music sheet, but in effect they hear the music. Like a naturally formed wave.

We find confirmation in our tech indi's and pat those indi's on the back – they're so good – while in fact the indi's pat on our backs. We seek comfort, because we do not trust our creative brains if not confirmed by the predefined shapes we have learned to trust.

Golden Tulip was build in this context upon a vague idea i had, that i could not really give a meaning. But it worked. By now, i have given it another more natural mathematical meaning and found the substructure. Call it deterministic math. Not to be mistaken with holistic jibberjabber, or Elliot wave patterns or price action patterns or chaos trading. Although all these strategies have contributed to my trading habits.

In short: I'm not looking at the past to predict what is most probable to happen – history never repeats itself – but i'm calculating all data in the current bar in two timeframes (i.e. 15m and 4h) into a temporary fair value matrix. That reveals most of the time the natural behaviour of the marketvalue and thus the marketprice of a pair. This math supports the story that the chart tries to tell. And it works better for me. More profits, less efforts and no shopping at different pairs but only monitoring one pair. But mostly: less stress, more confidence. One pair gives lots and lots of opportunities during the day.

I'll be publishing posts about this in the near future here and on a weblog.

Best regards,

Semper

Hi Semper August, I enjoy the thread while it lasted. I too have reached the same conclusions as you
stated in your last post. I would very much like to hear what you have to say about your new method
of trading without technical indicators. When you are finished retooling what you do by all means please
share the temporary fair value matrix. Thank you for all your are willing to share. Best of trades to you.

________________________

For the next two weeks i'm finishing a book about forex for amateurs (Dutch market) focusing on scripting (semi robots, indicators etc).

Then i'll be sharing stuff here and on a weblog.

Thanks for all replies here, in PM's and in my mailbox. Just hold your horses, almost ready with the book and then i have all the time in the world for publishing the results.

While sailing for the last time this season, and contemplating on deterministic math and the math of entropy and statistics of thermodynamics, and a while later thinking about the matter of value vs price, i recognised similar structures and situations.

Practically there are four states that a price or pair can have, also described by Bill Williams in his holistic theory on chaos trading:

1) Fade – market is at ease
2) Fake – market seems to be moving
3) Squat – market will soon start a new trend (and thus end one)
4) Green – steady trend

These states are related to the activities of traders. So in a way a crowd-psychological state, but also with the matter of Value vs Price.

Bill did not relate these states to his somewhat populistic aproach of chaos theory. In my opinion because his chaos-approach is more a marketing thingy for his methods, than really relevant in trading. His model of three fases – behaviour, underlying structure, etc. is not related to chaos math, but more or less to chaos philosphy. Any way...

These states however do occur as two entropic states and the transistions from one state into the other. The same states can be recognised in a thermodynamic proces and are in fact statistic models:



1) The pressure is constant in the two devided parts
2) Pressure unequally devided
3) Pressure passing from one half box to the other half, thus equalling the pressure
4) The box with two halfs on equal pressure

These simillarities can also be discribed for the difference between Value and Price of a good (pair, commodity, whatever):

1) Value and Price are both dropping or not moving
2) Value and Price are both rising
3) Value is rising, but price is dropping
4) Value is dropping but price is rising

One can put the pieces of data we get at each candle in a matrix, like this, where volume, price and value ofcourse are not constant values but compared with the previous candle. Hence the Plus and Minus:



So we have a mathematical model, a statistic model and a crowd-psychological model, all three describing the market in a similar way. But all three are logical and proven by physics and statistics.

What can we do with that logical model? Combine it with two other approaches of trading: the chaotic fractal model and the human-creative model.

I'll get back on this.

Following up on the previous message: With 3 dynamic parameters (value, price and volume) and each capable of appearing in two forms (up, down), there would theoretically be not 4 but 8 possible situations for a set of two candle sticks.
Maybe we can define the 8 situations of a candle stick here.

Dear Semper...can you pls share the latest system..I DONT See the Dots in chart..

Here is screen

1. amtyagi

I have to aplogise. My TFV does not work proper since a newer version of MT4. Am working an the new version now, and will publish it today. The TFV is one of the few indicators i use, as it tells a story about the currend candle.

The TFV indicator.

What does it show:

1. White dot is the place inside a bar where most of the Asking took place – or the average of Asking and Bidding.
2. Red dot shows the place inside a bar where the Bidding took place
3. Black lines show highest highs and lowest lows (crosses)
4. Moving Average of black lines, or TFV or normal MA (turned invisible for default)

If ShowSpread is set to false, only the white dot shows up.

If you want no lines or no dots, just turn color to NONE

When loading TFV only the white dots appear with data derived from the lowest possible timeframe (m1), because there are no Ask and Bid data available for past bars. So only the current bar and newer bars can have different dots for Ask and Bid. If your broker has a fixed spread, just turn of ShowSpread.

What's the use of TFV?

1. The TFV shows the center of activity inside a bar.
2. Clutters of the TFV reveals support or resistance.
3. Reliable indicator for sqing low or high
4. In EA's it can be used to open or close an order when crossing, to avoid unwanted actions on a single and non-signifcant spike.

If supported by the broker it shows the actual spread data. Although MT4 does not supply the proper data like tick volume and actual ask or bid differences. I use an enhanced version in jForex that supplies exact data about asking and bidding. With the proper math it reveals the difference in value, rather than price.

What's the use of the Cross lines?

Fully automated S&R lines. When price crosses, it's a strong trade signal, if other parameters are met of course.

Hi semper, could you also post the jforex indicator of TFV?

Thanks for you contribution.

Sorry Tradur,

I'm not sharing my jForex stuff.

Really nice thanks for this refreshing thread!

Can you elaborate more on the use of the Cross lines?

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BR

I will explain just about everything, when my book on Forex is finished. One more week.

I would like to invite you to a new thread on this forum. It is the result of my Golden Tulip investigations.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=513610

I will no longer respond in this thread. That does not mean that Golden Tulip didn't work. It made me a lot of profit. It can only be done way better.