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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #50,401
  • Oct 27, 2014 3:14am Oct 27, 2014 3:14am
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  • #50,402
  • Oct 27, 2014 3:44am Oct 27, 2014 3:44am
Quoting s189145
{image}
Thanks - that is one I was thinking of - just did not have time to look.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #50,403
  • Oct 27, 2014 5:45am Oct 27, 2014 5:45am
Did anyone/is anyone trading GBP today?
  • #50,404
  • Oct 27, 2014 5:46am Oct 27, 2014 5:46am
Hi all

Been watching eur news announcement today - seemed to me they sold usd/jpy in order to duckhunt eurusd to news - got lots of ducks and then sold eurusd - I followed....
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #50,405
  • Oct 27, 2014 5:52am Oct 27, 2014 5:52am
I never know what to do about news so just trying to follow and learn - market is great teacher it seems (thanks FTI) - still I feel I am so timid - seems I am either timid or brave - hmmmmmn - scorpions.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #50,406
  • Oct 27, 2014 5:57am Oct 27, 2014 5:57am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Did anyone/is anyone trading GBP today?
Hi - I follow eurusd as newbie - but watch cable as part of Ro3K - with my euro tho
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #50,407
  • Oct 27, 2014 6:14am Oct 27, 2014 6:14am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Did anyone/is anyone trading GBP today?
As I was watching eur - I thought they were pushing up cable to help drive eur long in duck hunt to news and to later sell eur at better price - just how it seemed to me in my head.

My feelings were:

usd/jpy short + gbp long to help push eur long for better price nice duck hunt then hit short on eur.

Boy there is a lot for me to learn - I try not to think too much but go with feelings and let market teach me - I know I am still too uptight about live trades and too fast as FTI told me (how he knew??) - today I try to slow down and it worked but improvement needed for me
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #50,408
  • Oct 27, 2014 8:23am Oct 27, 2014 8:23am
Inserted Video
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #50,409
  • Oct 27, 2014 11:44am Oct 27, 2014 11:44am
Hi,

I saw this piece of news at 5.30pm Singapore time : "Very large option expiries (USD 4.5 bln) likely to contain EURUSD trade today between 1.2650-1.2700".
And later on at 11.30pm this : "Large options expiries in EURUSD largely dictated the price action for the pair with EURUSD seeing the session out in positive territory after several yards rolled off at the 10am NY cut".

I would appreciate very much if anyone can explain how option expiries impact the price action of EURUSD (or any currency pairs). Thank you.
  • #50,410
  • Edited 1:11pm Oct 27, 2014 12:42pm | Edited 1:11pm
Quoting jack108
Hi, I saw this piece of news at 5.30pm Singapore time : "Very large option expiries (USD 4.5 bln) likely to contain EURUSD trade today between 1.2650-1.2700". And later on at 11.30pm this : "Large options expiries in EURUSD largely dictated the price action for the pair with EURUSD seeing the session out in positive territory after several yards rolled off at the 10am NY cut". I would appreciate very much if anyone can explain how option expiries impact the price action of EURUSD (or any currency pairs). Thank you.
if it say likely contain 1.2650-1.2700 is likely is puts expiry.
and is says is in positive territory after the options rolled off. likely puts thats out of the money and just small delta hedges exposed.
the rally possibe to be the writer unwinding his hedge delta.

since no mentioned that position rolled over, then need see if option put buyer will return to markets.
may return unless prerspective had changed.

This type info is useless, when contains no specific details of strike or tenure. Just say few yards. So whats big deal with few yards to market?
yards means billions only. mauy be 10 -20 pips impact.

regards

you asked about impact.
but if these puts had been in or at the money.
the pressure on exchange for physicals may for a few yards have a downside bias for 100 so pips depending on good liquidity environments.
otherwise if illiquid, wham.
  • #50,411
  • Oct 27, 2014 3:30pm Oct 27, 2014 3:30pm
i have just read 200+ pages of this thread saving what i think is important in txt file and i know i i saved nothing going back to start read 3 times and meybe i will find what is to find.Have to spill my cup of water i think and re-fill it. Another pig wanting to find some pearl but what pigs do best ? burrowing
Fti thank you for this thread !!!
  • #50,412
  • Edited 7:04pm Oct 27, 2014 6:17pm | Edited 7:04pm
Quoting s189145
i have just read 200+ pages of this thread saving what i think is important in txt file and i know i i saved nothing going back to start read 3 times and meybe i will find what is to find.Have to spill my cup of water i think and re-fill it. Another pig wanting to find some pearl but what pigs do best ? burrowing Fti thank you for this thread !!!
Thank You for your kind words.

slowly , just go at own pace of development.
think positive and act/move cautiously.

In markets, Preserve your most important asset. your capital
The mind , it can be trained. There is ways.
Climb the learning curve carefully and one day shall reach the pinnacle of one's abilities.

If the body has been poisoned, detox can help.
If the mind is poisoned, need replace the poison with medicine REPLACE the thoughts.
Takes some time and experience.
Realisation is the 1st steps to recovery.

regards

I try help you along.
You see, no one can change fast.
1st forgive oneself, be kind and forgive oneself.
then learn not harm others.
Then analyst one's actions and thoughts.
try find the deceptions.
replace the found deceptions with kindness.
then build on the benefits one gets from the new life.
What mistakes made due to being deceived, its gone, is water under the bridge.
After more experience and peeling off layers and layers of deception.
One should be able see truth crystal clear.

Actually phil brought up a very valid observation lately.
The truth is the markets , its a crocodile pond.
Every croc is waiting another croc show weakness.
And the whole pond will jump on the weakened.
Does not matter is friend or not.
This the basics of commerce.
All for gain and gain is all.
The knowledge is out there but is twisted in such ways.
When complimented with persona weakness, becomes deadly venem.

Do not rush.
One would rush if one was desperate or greedy.
And that would be the pebble in the shoe for one's slaughter. The fear factor.
Is difficult explain. need feel it learn.

See if you can understand this.
In markets, have peeps with billions $ waiting for small fart thinks can push them.
traps then devours.
if you can understand that then you can cut thru some o the deceptions put into your mind.
Try turn that to your advantage.
try not allow errs become mistakes.
  • #50,413
  • Oct 27, 2014 8:41pm Oct 27, 2014 8:41pm
Quoting fti
{quote} if it say likely contain 1.2650-1.2700 is likely is puts expiry. and is says is in positive territory after the options rolled off. likely puts thats out of the money and just small delta hedges exposed......
Thanks fti for the explanation.
  • #50,414
  • Edited Oct 28, 2014 12:14am Oct 27, 2014 9:16pm | Edited Oct 28, 2014 12:14am
I too have finally read through 200 odd pages, starting to see more clearly. I'll say one thing however, I certainly don't have the ability to reason why with regards to fundamentals. I know it's not for the traders to reason why but I just want to sound smart sometimes still things to learn.
  • #50,415
  • Edited 1:37am Oct 28, 2014 12:37am | Edited 1:37am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
I too have finally read through 200 odd pages, starting to see more clearly. I'll say one thing however, I certainly don't have the ability to reason why with regards to fundamentals. I know it's not for the traders to reason why but I just want to sound smart sometimes still things to learn.
nothing wrong with sound smart.
so long as you get theinfo from the market.
If you start become too smart and manufacture your own logics,or read opinions instead of news then it becomes dangerous.
To know whats happening in markets.
2 ways.
1. able see order flows.
2. able listen to peeps who can see order flows.
then need know whats happening in news front, confirm what seen in order flows.


regards

i don't care about the hot shot and his opinions.
but i want to know if someone hit him big.
and i waant know where he's been kicked.
the whys, i can find out later.
or manufacture something , try conivince everyone.


but if he makes report about who hit him.
Then i can guess if he going to die or not.

if above not accessable, alternative is watch chart flow.
and pin ear to wire about info thats happening now.
not info about whats going to happen next century.
One is info, others hot exhaust , i no interested.
what they doing is important, what they doing later and the big one that got away , that, they can tell their gfs at the drinkholes.

same , when i listen to albums.
I listen the songs.
the fillers they can give away to others , i no want em.

when i buy a product. i want get the product i bought.
things bundled with the product, they can put it in the hamper baskets.
is difficult carry all sorts shit loads of rubbish.

when i use computer programs.
I use what is well tested.
if something needs upgrading too often, just means the thigy was not well thought out.
mostly attached is loads of shitty unnecessaries.
If any thing needs rebuild from ground up, means is a big mistake in the 1st place.
I never trust these kinda brains. They not have much.
They can live with their lack. I don't have to.
  • #50,416
  • Oct 28, 2014 1:36am Oct 28, 2014 1:36am
Bought EUR/USD 1.2703.
Was too hasty in my analysis, might be booboo. Will have to save later, panicky as not sure about how to formulate plan to save.
  • #50,417
  • Edited 6:01am Oct 28, 2014 1:41am | Edited 6:01am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Bought EUR/USD 1.2703. Was too hasty in my analysis, might be booboo. Will have to save later, panicky as not sure about how to formulate plan to save.
Most important lesson, when feel make err.
correct immediately, or face the music and fact that one was stupid.

Don't wait till it booboos then try correct it.


regards

some peeps are born stupid, is very unfortunate. but these handicapped are very small %.mostly due to genetic defects.
But those train to be stupid or chooses to be. 沒有藥醫( no medicine to cure)
bo pian.

no one make all the right choices.
but is better change and be wrong then be disorientated in focus within.
if one choses 100 times and is wrong 75% of the choices, then just accept it that one is a dunce.
and if one keep chossing alternating, then one confirms one is.
  • #50,418
  • Edited 2:16am Oct 28, 2014 2:00am | Edited 2:16am
I think I was spared a fight this time. But at least I'm out.

@fti

Noted... I think my emotions have the better of me. Was like a dear in the headlights. Was just happy to get out of the trade to collect myself.

The moment I start trading live, my brain frizzles, need to work on this emotional stuff, not easy for me.
  • #50,419
  • Edited 2:32am Oct 28, 2014 2:11am | Edited 2:32am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
I think I was spared a fight this time. But at least I'm out. @fti Noted... I think my emotions have the better of me. Was like a dear in the headlights. Was just happy to get out of the trade to collect myself.
like dongsky always said.
Is better out nursing wounds that sitting in field wishing one was out.

regards

When one is lost and not know what to do.
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  • #50,420
  • Oct 28, 2014 2:25am Oct 28, 2014 2:25am
Quoting fti
{quote} like dongsky always said. Is better out nursing wounds that sitting in field wishing one was out. regards When one is lost and not know what to do. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n03g8nsaBro http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RojlDwD07I
I think I see. At least I've now experienced what you described as the only way of learning is by doing it live because there are many factors influencing decisions. Good to hear live advice. Many thanks.
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