Simple Daily Market Updates From CWMFX

This thread will be updated daily with simple short and sharp market updates, charts, posts and videos brought to you via the team at CWMFX.
Feel free to post questions below or message me directly.

Robert Thorp, Senior Accounts Manager CWMFX.

Our First Update!

Is the bull market back on track? - Craig Droste Explains.

http://youtu.be/UtHONLBmU8I

Economic Event to Watch: US House Price Index or HPI (MoM, Aug) & Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct) - 14:00-14:45 BST, 23 October 2014

Thursday is proving to be quite a busy trading day - the German preliminary manufacturing PMI turned out better than expected earlier in the morning; now, the spotlight turns to the US, as we would be seeing their Initial Jobless Claims data before their HPI and Flash Manufacturing PMI, all being relevant indicators to the health of the US economy.

Last month, we saw the HPI data come out worse than expected, forecasted at 0.4% but turned out to land on 0.1%. However, it is anticipated to readjust back to 0.4% (a higher number would mean that the housing industry is doing better). With the Flash PMI, this too is expected to show a drop from 57.5 to 57.0 - a drop, but still sitting at a healthy level.

With mixed data forecasted for the US this Thursday, the USD may experience added volatility. Key assets to watch: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/GBP, S&P500

Market Update Video - 23/10/14

Unexpectedly Positive #PMI Data Boosts European Indices.

Lower Chinese manufacturing PMI, a fall in oil prices back below $84, and a 6% drop in #Tesco’s share price after earnings missed, weighed heavily on investors’ sentiment at the open, pushing European indices lower. France this morning released much worse than expected manufacturing and services PMI data, the EUR pairs plummeted; #EUR/#USD hit a low of 1.2613 and looked poised to drop a lot further. However European indices were then given a much needed boost by unexpectedly better than expected PMI data from Germany and the Eurozone. The EUR has now rallied from intraday lows to hit an intraday high of 1.2667, although the upside could be limited.

Retail sales from Britain came out to be much worse than expected, falling 1% year-on-year, weighing heavy on the #FTSE and causing the GBP to fall.#GBP/USD fell to weekly lows of 1.5998 and is set to head lower ahead of US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 BST today. Unusually warm weather in the #UKhas caused a delay in autumn/winter collection sales, decreasing almost 8% year-on-year for fashion retailers. The largest contribution in weak retail sales came from petrol stations as fuel prices slid 1.4% year-on-year, the largest decline in fuel prices since July 2009. As a result, retail sales fell 0.3% month-on-month in September, while analysts only expected a 0.1% fall from August.

Assets to Watch for Today: #US. Session Assets: S&P 500, #Dow, #USD/#JPY, USD/CAD

Analysis on #EUR/#JPY
Yen turned sharply lower last week, as US indexes recovered most of the ground lost earlier this month, with the EUR/JPY gapping strongly higher above the 137.00 mark as a new week starts. The pair a few pips below acritical dynamic resistance, the 100 DMA currently at 137.55.

Short term, the 1 hour chart shows price managed to extend above its 100 and 200 SMAs’ both flat a hundred pips below current levels, while indicators add bullish momentum above their midlines. In the 4 hours chart momentum aims higher well above 50 while RSI approaches 70 also with a strong upward slope. Several intraday lows at 136.60 price zone suggest buyers await at the level, with a break below required to revert the ongoing positive tone.
Support levels: 137.00 136.60 136.10
Resistance levels: 137.55 138.00 138.40

The CWM #FX Market Update with Craig Droste is out!

Key assets to focus on: FTSE100 [FTSE-DEC14], the DAX, the EUR/USD – American session: all the major US indices and some of the major USD pairs.

The Bulls are Back in Town!

#US indices climbed higher on Friday, performing their best in 2014. The week of strong rallies was spurred by better than expected earnings from major components of the Dow, S&P 500, and the #NASDAQ. Proctor & Gamble and Microsoft were key performers. Paul Notle, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management, noted that falling gas and fuel prices could have a posit...ive “flow effect for consumer spending”, spurring further rallies in US indices. The #Dow rallied 2.6% from the previous week, while the S&P 500 and the #NASDAQ both rallied more than 4% from a week ago. A fall in US treasury yields on Friday pushed the dollar lower against the Japanese Yen, the Euro, and Sterling. #USD/#JPY fell almost 50 points before consolidating around 107.85.

Analysis on #GBP/#USD - 28/10/14
The GBP/USD came back after flirting with 1.6000 last Friday remains quite shallow, as the pair has so far failed to recover above a daily descendant trend line coming from 1.7190, July high, today at 1.6160.

Short term however, the 1 hour chart presents a positive tone as indicators head higher above their midlines, as 20 SMA bends higher below current price. In the 4 hours chart latest candles hold above a still bearish 20 SMA, while indicators turn south around their midlines, limiting chances of further short term advances. A static resistance at 1.6125 has attracted sellers on approaches, so only a clear break above it will favor some intraday gains up to mentioned trend line in the 1.6160 price zone. Failure to hold above 1.6070 on the other hand, exposes the pair to another dip towards the 1.6000 price zone.

Support levels: 1.6070 1.6030 1.5995
Resistance levels: 1.6125 1.6160 1.6200

https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.n...e9944dfb7e3a96

Important Economic Event: #US Durable #Goods Orders & ex. Transportation (Sep) - 12:30 GMT, 28 October 2014

Last week, the #USD experienced mixed movements, posting gains against the #EUR and #JPY whilst dropping against the #AUD and #CAD, possibly in reaction to positive jobless claims, inflation and housing data alongside mixed data from the #Eurozone and China, as well as the shootings that happened in Canada. This week, there will be a few important economic events occurring in the US, starting with their Durable Goods Orders data. For the month of September, both data (whole and excluding transportation) is expected to show positive increases from -18.4% (revised from -18.2%) to 0.6% for the former and from 0.4% to 0.5% for the latter. Should the outcome be as anticipated or better, it could move the USD upwards. Key assets to watch: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, #Dow and S&P500

Extensive analysis on #EUR/#USD

The EUR/USD advanced beyond the 1.2700 mark despite unable to show some follow through, in a quite choppy Monday. The early week relief provided by #ECB stress test suffered a setback after the release of w...orse than expected German #IFO survey, sending the pair down to a daily low of 1.2665. Early American session, #US data also disappointed, with local #PMI and Pending home sales below expected and forecasted. The dollar shed ground across the board, reaching some critical levels against most rivals where it stands by US close.

Despite a weak greenback, majors had remained within familiar ranges, as investors are wary to move them to far away in light of upcoming #FED meeting next Wednesday. As for the technical short term picture for the EUR/USD, the 1 hour chart shows 20 SMA gaining bullish slope below current price whilst indicators maintain a neutral stance. In the 4 hours chart indicators stand in positive territory albeit showing no directional strength at the time being. A break above 1.2720 should lead to a quick test of 1.2750 price zone, while once above this last, the 1.2780/90 strong Fibonacci area comes next.
Support levels: 1.2665 1.2620 1.2580
Resistance levels: 1.2720 1.2750 1.2790

https://scontent-a-lhr.xx.fbcdn.net/...f1&oe=54ED6CF4

Important Economic Event: #US #Consumer Confidence (Oct) - 14:00 GMT, 28 October 2014

Economically, the US seems to be going from strength to strength, appearing to be unaffected by the global economic uncertainty. However, the presence of the #Ebola virus in America is not to be waved aside as it may hamper their progress in economic growth and expansion, which is something they have been lookin...g to achieve for the past nine years at least.

Being a survey carried out on about 5,000 American households, this piece of data rates the level of current and future economic conditions by looking into the consumer's confidence in spending their money (which makes up majority of overall economic activity). For September, consumer confidence dropped to an unexpected 86.0 (analysts were previously predicting a modest drop to 92.5 from 93.4). This month, it is hoped to have increased slightly to 87.4, in response to more positive jobs data and dropping oil prices to date. If this proves to be the case or better than expected, it could affect the USD's movements positively.

Key assets to watch: #EUR/#USD, USD/#JPY and S&P500

28/10/14 - Market update is out!

Analysis on #EUR/#JPY
#Yen recovered some ground against its major rivals this Monday after its weak start, as stocks faltered around critical supports tested early Sunday opening: having traded in the red for most of the day, American ind...exes managed to regain half the ground lost yet remain vulnerable to a bearish run, now that the easy money may be gone for good.

Technically the EUR/JPY trades back below the 137.00 mark, with a mild bearish tone coming from the 1 hour indicators, heading lower below their midlines, and with 100 and 200 SMAs in the mentioned chart flat around 136.20/30. In the 4 hours chart price behavior is quite uncertain on what’s next as candles show little bodies and long shadows either side of the board, while indicators turn lower above their midlines. The daily low around 136.60 comes as immediate support while some follow through beyond 137.40 is required to erase the current negative short term tone.
Support levels: 136.60 136.10 135.70
Resistance levels: 137.40137.90 138.40

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.n...e687d9164ef035

#Trading opportunity at 18.00pm! The CWM #FX Market Update by Cr. Droste is out! http://lnkd.in/dmi_vQM #FED #durable #consumer #dow #vix

Analysis in EUR/JPY
The #EUR /#JPY turns intraday negative with the news, breaking below the 50% retracement of the latest bearish run, around 137.70. The movements in the pair are limited in light of both currencies falling even against the greenback, yet in the long run, chances turned to the downside.

Technically the 1 hour chart shows indicators cross their midlines to the downside, but pri...ce still above moving averages, with 100 one offering dynamic support now around 137.20. In the 4 hours chart indicators turned lower, with momentum still in positive territory and RSI pulling back from overbought territory: 136.80 level is the support to break to confirm a stronger downward extension, not yet clear according to price action.
Support levels: 137.20 136.80 136.40
Resistance levels: 137.70 138.50 138.85

Analysis on #GBP/#USD
Having posted a daily high of 1.6182, the GBP/USD finally pulled back below the daily ascendant trend line coming form 1.7190, leaving a bitter taste on bull’s mouth. The slow but steady slide over American hours, see...s the pair entering Asian ones with a bearish short term tone, as per current candle opening below its 20 #SMA and indicators about to cross their midlines to the downside with a strong bearish slope.

In the 4 hours chart indicators also turned lower but remain well above their midlines, while 20 SMA now offers immediate intraday support at 1.6090. Furthermore in this last time frame, 200 EMA capped the upside around mentioned daily high quite significant in the longer run, as further declines will point for a return of the bearish trend.
Support levels: 1.6090 1.6050 1.6010
Resistance levels: 1.6145 1.6185 1.6220

https://scontent-b-lhr.xx.fbcdn.net/...c7&oe=54F544AD

European Indices Lower After the #FED Ends QE3.

Despite strong earnings from corporate yesterday and this morning, European indices head lower as investors realise the effect the lack of liquidity the end to QE could bring. The end of the Fed’s monetary stimulus programme yesterday meant that the market is experiencing, for the first time in six years, a lack of new liquidity being pumped into the market, having a dampening effect on US indices, and European indices have followed suit. #FTSE fell over 90 points this morning, while the #DAX dropped over 160 points and counting. The EUR plummeted during the US session and into the Asian session on the back of a significantly bullish dollar, to a low of 1.2554 – where it found support due to positive European data.

German unemployment change and unemployment rate data was released this morning, the unemployment rate remaining at 6.7% and while the unemployment change reduced by 22k. This positive news, along with an increase in consumer confidence helped the EUR find support across the board.

We are also expecting German #CPI to be released at 13:00 GMT today. Preliminary CPI for October is expected to increase 0.1% on the year for Germany, showing some stability in the economy. If German CPI misses analysts’ expectations we could see the #EUR trend lower, especially against the #USD.