Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 2518 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #50,341
  • Oct 21, 2014 8:14am Oct 21, 2014 8:14am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Hi Phil, So you mean it is the speed of candle movements as they are forming that they seem to be manipulating rather than the finished candles? I couldn't swear that never happened, I'd have to run another test I think. I use a well-known UK broker with a Russian parent company, I hope it wasn't them?!
hi ukmanthailan

they do not have offices in russia, so not the same broker.

depending on what time frame you are looking at it could be missing a couple/few candles completely or part of one/some missing, so their data feed is stopping their end for whatever reason/problem, if it was my end the data would fill when re-connected, i run the two platforms (both MT4) together, one continues as normal to fill data while the other freezes and does not fill the candles, when it does resume the connection it often does not show it has not printed candles (frozen) by the disconnect icon at the bottom.
there is a piece of software to detect missing data and i usually have it running if i try a new broker, it is especially good to use on M1 if you trade that time frame, most brokers have small quick data problems but they had more than most in my experience with them.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #50,342
  • Oct 21, 2014 7:16pm Oct 21, 2014 7:16pm
Quoting fti
{quote} Hi again. If I got what you are asking. Let me build you a scenerio. You are watching USD/Yen and GBP/USD. and everything is stable and quiet. Suddenly theres heavy selling of USD/Yen . What happens to the dollar, it floods the market. Do you think there will be a reaction in the GBP/USD? Does this answer your correlation question. regards
If someone can double check my logic please.

The way I see it, there are two situations that can exist in a scenario like this i.e. USD/Yen having heavy selling.

1.) A trader is long GBP/USD... suddenly there is a lot of dollars on the market which makes them cheap. I want to offload as many of them as possible which means I want to go more long GBP/USD.

2.) A trader is short GBP/USD... suddenly there is a lot of dollars on the market which makes them cheap. I want to offload as many of them as possible which means I want to get out of my short position and potentially go long.

Either way, the GBP/USD should potentially rise.

The only reason why GBP/USD should rise is due to my understanding of... market structure i.e. you need a market that will allow to take up the volumes that just saw the influx of dollars. GBP is big enough, therefore traders flock to it (or EUR).

At least this is my understanding of the situation.
  • #50,343
  • Oct 21, 2014 9:51pm Oct 21, 2014 9:51pm
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
{quote} If someone can double check my logic please. The way I see it, there are two situations that can exist in a scenario like this i.e. USD/Yen having heavy selling. 1.) A trader is long GBP/USD... suddenly there is a lot of dollars on the market which makes them cheap. I want to offload as many of them as possible which means I want to go more long GBP/USD. 2.) A trader is short GBP/USD... suddenly there is a lot of dollars on the market which makes them cheap. I want to offload as many of them as possible which means I want to get out of my...
This is a major problem in your mind.
Too intelligent. very bias. too opinioned .
The smart kid syndrome.

any way there is MPC today.
we will know soon. Those carry into it is gambling. What you think your thoughts are doing?

regards
  • #50,344
  • Oct 21, 2014 11:09pm Oct 21, 2014 11:09pm
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
{quote} If someone can double check my logic please. The way I see it, there are two situations that can exist in a scenario like this i.e. USD/Yen having heavy selling. 1.) A trader is long GBP/USD... suddenly there is a lot of dollars on the market which makes them cheap. I want to offload as many of them as possible which means I want to go more long GBP/USD. 2.) A trader is short GBP/USD... suddenly there is a lot of dollars on the market which makes them cheap. I want to offload as many of them as possible which means I want to get out of my...
hi, atomic_sheep,

it should rise, but its an expectation or bias given the information we have about what happened, but that does not mean we have perfect information, in the markets different people come and go at different times, and they need not go long just because the dollar is cheap, in fact, they can short it if they are operating a different MO, e.g. pairs trading, or they are value traders, they can short it as they valuate it as being out of line with their expectation. volatility which does not adjust back down or retraces weakly is the result of momentum, so go with the momentum which is pricing the markets within the scope of ur analysis, only enter in the direction of the trade when u can feel the momentum in that direction, instead of trading on a bias, as that is a slippery slope to letting loses ride.
  • #50,345
  • Oct 21, 2014 11:45pm Oct 21, 2014 11:45pm
Every now and then I would just loses the feel of the market, unable to dance so to speak. Any suggestion? I tried to give even more screen time but it ain't helping. haha. How does the pro keep it together?
Be like water making its way through cracks.
  • #50,346
  • Oct 21, 2014 11:55pm Oct 21, 2014 11:55pm
Quoting ClumsyTrader
Every now and then I would just loses the feel of the market, unable to dance so to speak. Any suggestion? I tried to give even more screen time but it ain't helping. haha. How does the pro keep it together?
Hi, clumsytrader,

sometimes i feel this way too, for me since im trading on a small live account, whenever i feel unable to feel the markets, rather than to risk real cash, i would opt to trade a demo account just to try getting the feel back. though sometimes it may also be because the markets are not active at all, because maybe there is a big event coming and nobody wants exposure to it, then it is normal to not feel a thing in the markets.
  • #50,347
  • Oct 22, 2014 12:00am Oct 22, 2014 12:00am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi, clumsytrader, sometimes i feel this way too, for me since im trading on a small live account, whenever i feel unable to feel the markets, rather than to risk real cash, i would opt to trade a demo account just to try getting the feel back. though sometimes it may also be because the markets are not active at all, because maybe there is a big event coming and nobody wants exposure to it, then it is normal to not feel a thing in the markets.

I'm the exact situation, small live to practice my craft. Demo when I'm bored. But yeah you are right, it's the lack of direction in the market that's causing me to ask myself am I losing the mojo haha.
Be like water making its way through cracks.
  • #50,348
  • Oct 22, 2014 12:02am Oct 22, 2014 12:02am
Quoting ClumsyTrader
{quote} I'm the exact situation, small live to practice my craft. Demo when I'm bored. But yeah you are right, it's the lack of direction in the market that's causing me to ask myself am I losing the mojo haha.
I wonder if you put tiny tiny scout in (he is expendable) does feel come or better stay out - so far I stay out
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #50,349
  • Edited 12:27am Oct 22, 2014 12:16am | Edited 12:27am
Quoting ClumsyTrader
Every now and then I would just loses the feel of the market, unable to dance so to speak. Any suggestion? I tried to give even more screen time but it ain't helping. haha. How does the pro keep it together?
Pros Because its a job.
maybe YOU trying too hard.
when you try too hard and you mind not silent, it not comes.
either that or nothings happening.

If you put lots screen time and it not comes, then just not rub it too much.
You not in sync yet maybe. Stop looking for it maybe it will come to you.
I not very sure about retail. It takes lots to move markets, 10 million does nothing to markets.

If you really want feel, later when MPC makes statement you may feel market's pulse.
If you like to gamble then you can feel the excitement if you number comes in, otherwise you may need panic.
Now mostly is ducks hunts and squeezeeys only. Brokers may like squeeze you a little see if you milk.


regards
  • #50,350
  • Oct 22, 2014 12:23am Oct 22, 2014 12:23am
chief,

just putting my attendance here....

V
  • #50,351
  • Oct 22, 2014 12:29am Oct 22, 2014 12:29am
Quoting fti
{quote} Pros Because its a job. maybe YOU trying too hard. when you try too hard and you mind not silent, it not comes. either that or nothings happening. If you put lots screen time and it not comes, then just not rub it too much. You not in sync yet maybe. Stop looking for it maybe it will come to you. I not very sure about retail. It takes lots to move markets, 10 million does nothing to markets. If you really want feel, later when MPC makes statement you may feel market's pulse. If you like to gamble then you can feel the excitement if you number...
Gregory Porter helps too....

Just tried tiny tiny scout for feel - he told me turn fast and quick -so did in/out all good - I can analyse it now but very fast - felt weird at time - I am trying to focus only on feel and dancing better. I find it hard not to be rigid so still trying.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #50,352
  • Oct 22, 2014 12:29am Oct 22, 2014 12:29am
Quoting indianguyinny24
chief, just putting my attendance here.... V
nice see you .
ready for the ironlady trade?


regards

for those blur.
Ironlady is BOE.
  • #50,353
  • Oct 22, 2014 12:35am Oct 22, 2014 12:35am
Quoting fti
{quote} nice see you . ready for the ironlady trade? regards for those blur. Ironlady is BOE.
Na going to bed....just finished some Diwaleee prep....so might trade in morning.....

V
  • #50,354
  • Oct 22, 2014 12:41am Oct 22, 2014 12:41am
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} Na going to bed....just finished some Diwaleee prep....so might trade in morning..... V
happy festive of the lights.

regards
  • #50,355
  • Edited 1:06am Oct 22, 2014 12:46am | Edited 1:06am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Gregory Porter helps too.... Just tried tiny tiny scout for feel - he told me turn fast and quick -so did in/out all good - I can analyse it now but very fast - felt weird at time - I am trying to focus only on feel and dancing better. I find it hard not to be rigid so still trying.
of course is easier see without blindfolds.
actually there's no need move fast. Is better know and feel it when someone's kicking you.
yo only need move fast if your market access is hiding prices from you.
Markets always have a price 24/5.
But pretty prices , normally they not around when you want them.
not pretty ones everywhere. For me any price is pretty.

Some peeps only trade tops and bottoms or when it crosses., i trade everywhere.
maybe thats why clumsy cannot feel a thing, he looking for somethings only.
i continueously looking for things to kep and things to dump.
Problem some peeps married t the things, cannot dump.
different mind.


regards

Inserted Video
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: long-ez.jpg Size: 113 KB
  • #50,356
  • Edited 2:00am Oct 22, 2014 1:11am | Edited 2:00am
Quoting fti
{quote} of course is easier see without blindfolds. actually there's no need move fast. Is better know and feel it when someone's kicking you. yo only need move fast if your market access is hiding prices from you. Markets always have a price 24/5. But pretty prices , normally they not around when you want them. not pretty ones everywhere. For me any price is pretty. Some peeps only trade tops and bottoms or when it crosses., i trade everywhere. maybe thats why clumsy cannot feel a thing, he looking for somethings only. i continueously looking...
Thank you.

I have been trying to feel the dance and so this is my focus as newbie trying to walk - Yes I am too quick so I need to slow down (Gregory will help me do that...now Faithless my God is a DJ)

Inserted Video
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #50,357
  • Oct 22, 2014 1:38am Oct 22, 2014 1:38am
I'm seeing the three kingdoms tearing, that's as far as my analysis goes I'm afraid.
  • #50,358
  • Oct 22, 2014 2:29am Oct 22, 2014 2:29am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
I'm seeing the three kingdoms tearing, that's as far as my analysis goes I'm afraid.
Me too so I'm out for now - coffee time
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #50,359
  • Oct 22, 2014 3:14am Oct 22, 2014 3:14am
I'm off to sleep, leaving a scout short overnight.
  • #50,360
  • Oct 22, 2014 4:02am Oct 22, 2014 4:02am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Me too so I'm out for now - coffee time
sometimes too fast , sometimes will be too slow.
Just manage closest to what happening and what your thoughts of whats the possibilities.
make more smaller parcels. Make more decisions. Some will be too fast some too slow.



Inserted Video


regards
10 traders viewing now