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  • #5,481
  • Oct 18, 2014 8:21am Oct 18, 2014 8:21am
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GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #5,482
  • Oct 18, 2014 8:27am Oct 18, 2014 8:27am
Quoting The Fool
Bullard's jawboning calls a halt to the deflationary freefall. Yellen on tap in an hour or so & we'll see if she continues the call. The next FOMC is just a couple weeks away (10/29). That's the Oct meeting where the Fed has been expected to announce the end of the taper, the end of QE3, the punchbowl....omg...finally empty. Right before the elections? Right before the Great Pumpkin comes? right before Turkey Day and Xmas? Do you really think the Fed will kill Santa Claus? Not me. But we'll see. Markets catch a whiff of more punch & watch them run...
I think this is the deal for the rest of the year. The Fed is not just IN the market: the Fed IS the market. I will be very surprised if they don't make some kind of dovish concessions at the 10/29 FOMC. We'll see what the FedHeads say in the press before then, but I'd expect the markets will twist and turn on their every word. If they stay on course and pull the plug on QE3 on 10/29, the prior week's sharp drops are just a foretaste of what's to come. If they extend the taper in any way, the door is at least open for a nice Santa rally.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,483
  • Oct 18, 2014 8:52am Oct 18, 2014 8:52am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...tml?cmpid=yhoo
" In public remarks, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer noted concern the global economy is slowing, fueling speculation the central bank will push back the timing for raising interest rates. “If foreign growth is weaker than anticipated, the consequences for the U.S. economy could lead the Fed to remove accommodation more slowly than otherwise,” Fischer said in a Oct. 11 speech at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting..."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,484
  • Oct 18, 2014 8:59am Oct 18, 2014 8:59am
bull trap?.....could be a mofo

http://www.commdiginews.com/business...bubbles-28050/
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,485
  • Oct 18, 2014 9:09am Oct 18, 2014 9:09am
Quoting The Fool
bull trap?.....could be a mofo
or did we already get "capitulation"? ready to now "return to the mean"...? 30 SMA on weekly chart is 210-day sma....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,486
  • Oct 18, 2014 9:14am Oct 18, 2014 9:14am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...%20End%201.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...owed-big-sleep
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,487
  • Oct 18, 2014 9:27am Oct 18, 2014 9:27am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} or did we already get "capitulation"? ready to now "return to the mean"...? 30 SMA on weekly chart is 210-day sma.... {image}
with a 500d sma, you can make a case for a capitulation phase down to S&P 1,600 or lower. idk, charts are fun, but it's all about the Fed....we'll know the score in a couple weeks.

"Smart Money" ... (is that you?) ... will have at least a small bet on a downside drop if the Fed opens the trap door....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,488
  • Oct 18, 2014 10:35am Oct 18, 2014 10:35am
Quoting The Fool
"Smart Money" ... (is that you?) ... will have at least a small bet on a downside drop if the Fed opens the trap door....
I have gotten into the habit of watching the options time and sales flow as I contemplate trades. Was looking at the SSO trades. I see several "trap door" trades in there: somebody bought 289 x SSO Jan $53 puts for $25/contract.....SSO $53 would be S&P ~1,350. There were many smaller trades like that, also.

I usually look at the spreads, as that is what I am looking to trade. Ones I saw that I was thinking of, similarly:

SSO bear call vertical Nov $116/$120, net $0.63 credit; Nov bull put $90/$85 net $0.53....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,489
  • Oct 18, 2014 11:25am Oct 18, 2014 11:25am
Quoting The Fool
here are top options trades for the day for PBR. $20/$22 Nov bull call debit spread was pretty popular down the line for PBR. It's a bet that Neves wins the runoff in Brazil and that PBR move up to $21.xx. That's a good trade, spectacular roi IF it works out, small loss if it does not.
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmar...rrons&ru=yahoo

" Here are insights on Petrobras options trading, from Interactive Brokers, with the election mind:
Given “a strong performance overnight by Senator Aecio Neves in a televised presidential debate … should he win the election, investors are banking on the prospect of less intervention in state-run companies. Investors paid 29-cents for the call spread using contracts with 20.0 and 22.0 strike prices, buying the lower and selling the higher contracts. While the necessary move required to turn the trade profitable at expiration is large, investors are likely looking for exposure to just some of the move, which could raise the net premium on the trade allowing them to make still decent profits. And the trade plan is not necessarily outlandish even given the relatively short time frame. Not only have shares in Petrobras been buffeted by the wild ride for global stocks this week, but [shares] have also suffered at the hands of a substantial decline in crude oil prices. Investors are predicting that its shares may perform a re-run of the three-week move from mid-August that last lifted its fortunes to a little under $21.00.” "
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,490
  • Oct 18, 2014 11:59am Oct 18, 2014 11:59am
PBR Nov $22/$20 bull call debit spread hurt by PBR's rise Friday, debit now $0.37. You could do Nov $22 long / 10/31 $21.5 short for a $0.40 debit and an opening to better upside.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,491
  • Oct 18, 2014 12:05pm Oct 18, 2014 12:05pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-bo...203336366.html

" On a bright note, he added, every $10 lower in oil that is sustained for a 12-month period translates to an additional 12 basis points for global GDP.
"It's almost a replacement for quantitative easing," Iaccino said. "

Somewhere I saw somebody's calcs about what every $0.10 drop per gallon gasoline meant for additional discretionary funds available to US consumer...it was $billions....


" As for a break-even price point on U.S. shale oil, both Essner and Kingston said there is a lot of variability. "Earlier this week, the head of the IEA [International Energy Agency] said that more than 80 percent of U.S. shale is break even below $60. Earlier this week, some regulators in the Bakken said that there are parts of the Bakken that's break even at $28," Essner said. "

Break-even higher for oil sands, I have heard $70.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,492
  • Oct 18, 2014 1:11pm Oct 18, 2014 1:11pm
Quoting The Fool
PBR Nov $22/$20 bull call debit spread hurt by PBR's rise Friday, debit now $0.37. You could do Nov $22 long / 10/31 $21.5 short for a $0.40 debit and an opening to better upside.
I am starting to look at put spreads on EWZ and PBR. Market can't be two places at once, right pipple?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,493
  • Oct 19, 2014 12:34am Oct 19, 2014 12:34am
Quoting The Fool
I am starting to look at put spreads on EWZ and PBR. Market can't be two places at once, right pipple?
per Fri close, the PBR put spread below runs $0.06 credit; same dates $11/$10 gets $0.12 credit.

10/31 $11.00 / Dec $10.00 puts gets $0.01 credit
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,494
  • Edited 1:15am Oct 19, 2014 1:01am | Edited 1:15am
EWZ put spread below runs about $0.02 debit.

10/31 / Dec $38/$35 puts runs $0.03 debit

Nov/Dec $37/$35 @ $0.00 ... etc, etc ... need to see what's what for put spreads Monday, my butt hanging out too far in call spreads on EWZ and PBR, need to get covered with put spreads...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,495
  • Oct 19, 2014 1:52am Oct 19, 2014 1:52am
YHOO earnings 10/21, maybe we get a dip
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,496
  • Edited 2:30am Oct 19, 2014 2:13am | Edited 2:30am
Looking for PBR to get a bounce from Neves-positive poll numbers out over the weekend. Nov $21 call was sold for $1.11, sitting at $0.41, will buy back for $0.20 or so and roll into 10/31 $22 call or higher - looking to sell the 10/31 $22 for about what I give back on the Nov $21, or better, and I will be set for the election
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,497
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:24am Oct 19, 2014 7:24am
We who are about to die salute you.

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/cashi...174300620.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,498
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:33am Oct 19, 2014 7:33am
Have ya'll seen these?

https://quantcha.com/

http://www.optionsplay.com/products
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,499
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:46am Oct 19, 2014 7:46am
Quoting The Fool
YHOO earnings 10/21, maybe we get a dip
Did GOOGL show the way for YHOO? I'm just looking to fade a good dip on YHOO as I think speculation will continue that it may be a buyout target.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,500
  • Oct 19, 2014 8:01am Oct 19, 2014 8:01am
Quoting The Fool
Have ya'll seen these? https://quantcha.com/ http://www.optionsplay.com/products
quantcha similar to other free options trade scanners - it just spits out a range of possible trades based on a limited set of your inputs, won't do diagonals at all as far as I can see
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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