Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 2515 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #50,281
  • Oct 18, 2014 1:21am Oct 18, 2014 1:21am
my condolence.
May he rest in peace. God Bless Amen.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #50,282
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:06am Oct 18, 2014 2:06am
Haven't been trading for a while, looking to get back into it. Had a quick search of the thread, but couldn't immediately find the answer so I'll ask a question that I'm sure has been asked previously.

What pairs do you guys have open at any given time and what time frames, screenshots of their setups plus reasoning for having particular pairs open - an added bonus that I'll be even more grateful for.
  • #50,283
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:49am Oct 18, 2014 2:49am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Haven't been trading for a while, looking to get back into it. Had a quick search of the thread, but couldn't immediately find the answer so I'll ask a question that I'm sure has been asked previously. What pairs do you guys have open at any given time and what time frames, screenshots of their setups plus reasoning for having particular pairs open - an added bonus that I'll be even more grateful for.
i suggest not.
you will likely make the same mistakes that you made the last time.

If i may say.
Trading, is very serious business,
If some one comes and goes as likes, is likely the dedication is infactuations.
Maybe you could spend your time more productively in other endevours,

regards
  • #50,284
  • Edited 9:18pm Oct 18, 2014 2:53am | Edited 9:18pm
i cannot add to my post.
so continue here.

i say these with the utmost best intentions.
i really not like see peeps who attempts things in life without zest.
Normally would be non productive.

regards

https://www.facebook.com/earthweareo...type=1&theater
Attached Image
  • #50,285
  • Oct 18, 2014 3:14am Oct 18, 2014 3:14am
Well you're right on the money fti. I am certainly jumping from one thing to another, but having said that, it's a lesson to be learned in itself that I don't see being learned any other way. I understand what you're saying and I'll be the first to admit that I don't have my heart set on returning 100% simply because I've been burnt in the past and I'm anxious about being burnt yet again. However I know I've grown since last time so what this new experience will bring I don't know but at the end of the day I'm tentatively setting my sights on making a comeback even if it might be short lived and as you put it, without zest.
  • #50,286
  • Oct 18, 2014 3:39am Oct 18, 2014 3:39am
Quoting fti
i cannot add to my post. so continue here. i say these with the utmost best intentions. i really not like see peeps who attempts things in life without zest. Normally would be non productive. regards {image}
What does this quote mean?
  • #50,287
  • Oct 18, 2014 4:10am Oct 18, 2014 4:10am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Well you're right on the money fti. I am certainly jumping from one thing to another, but having said that, it's a lesson to be learned in itself that I don't see being learned any other way. I understand what you're saying and I'll be the first to admit that I don't have my heart set on returning 100% simply because I've been burnt in the past and I'm anxious about being burnt yet again. However I know I've grown since last time so what this new experience will bring I don't know but at the end of the day I'm tentatively setting my sights on making...
noted.
please check your ingredient mix.
did you have these figured out yet.

1. money management.
2.understanding of market structure.
3.U

analysis improves with exposure experience. Is a little different from one to another.
are you starting again with correct mindset?
You know that if nothing changed , it will be same results.

regards
  • #50,288
  • Edited 6:32am Oct 18, 2014 4:13am | Edited 6:32am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
{quote} What does this quote mean?
It means for the catapiler , its survival.
For the child , is improved mind perspective.

Peeps who step on that which weaker than them.
One day will step on something that can hurt them.

Caring?

I not ask peeps give some popits to good causes, because they need.
Is because you will need. Its all mindset perspective.

In trading one needs learn to kill or be killed.
Then in life need balance that mindset. Otherwise the imbalance can dominate living. creeps onto one.
Empathy teaches heaps about analysis. Maybe improve ability see whats biting em helps see clearer.

What time frame charts and what instruments you want trade.
That, no one shuld dictate you.
You got to fig out what works best for you and which girls will bring you joy.
In fact if you manage properly, any girl can bring you joy.
Question is what do u looking for?

in other words, unless you can set your goals and the risk you willing to take.
and the punches you willing to tolerate. How you gonna manage?

after decades doing the stuff, i can only master near 80s analysis accuracy.
any 1% of the 20s can splash me, on crazy days?
Just prays i not as crazy as the day, may just save my life. when needed.

You need stir your portfolio. Its not going stir itself. If markets stiring it, you're gonna.
but don't everbe deceived you can stir the markets. thats insane thinking.
one can only stir one's own ship not the river.
sometimes when you on wind, may feel like you stiring eiver, but thats not the truth.


regards

Kungfu masters. expert traders?
Attached Image
  • #50,289
  • Oct 18, 2014 9:20am Oct 18, 2014 9:20am
In respect for Dr Masaru san's passing, i like recap the research he left us.

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


regards
  • #50,290
  • Oct 18, 2014 9:53pm Oct 18, 2014 9:53pm
Quoting fti
{quote} noted. please check your ingredient mix. did you have these figured out yet. 1. money management. 2.understanding of market structure. 3.U analysis improves with exposure experience. Is a little different from one to another. are you starting again with correct mindset? You know that if nothing changed , it will be same results. regards
1. I only know of patterns like 1 1 2 etc but I don't know how/when to use them. I'm also totally at a loss when it comes to using technical indicators as risk gauges that allow you to size positions if that's what you use them for.

2. Have been re-reading some earlier posts, I know some theory, but I don't understand it I think. I especially don't have the feel for what sort of order might have resulted in a particularly sized move i.e. after a move takes place, who or how much traded.

3. I think my mindset is different to last time. I think last time I felt like I was in control and could predict price moves, now I feel like I'm ready to listen more.
  • #50,291
  • Oct 19, 2014 12:52am Oct 19, 2014 12:52am
Quoting fti
{quote} ......................no one shuld dictate you. You got to fig out what works best for you and which girls will bring you joy. In fact if you manage properly, any girl can bring you joy. Question is what do u looking for? in other words, unless you can set your goals and the risk you willing to take. and the punches you willing to tolerate. How you gonna manage? after decades doing the stuff, i can only master near 80s analysis accuracy. any 1% of the 20s can splash me, on crazy days? Just prays i not as crazy as the day, may just save my...
I come and go on from this site, due to my inability to filter out noises. But I always check back on this thread because of gem like these. I don't need pointers, I don't need anyone to tell me their levels or their signal. What i needed were a mindset. A mindset that I picked up from reading this thread, over and over again, especially the first 1/4 of it. Thank you for your contribution fti!
Be like water making its way through cracks.
  • #50,292
  • Oct 19, 2014 3:44am Oct 19, 2014 3:44am
Quoting fti
This is different for trader who , chose their positions. The fact that, their chosing of the trade, is an interplay of hope and expectations, grounded on whatever the analysis for the taking of the position in the first instance. Analysis is a complex thought process and should be only done within the time window of the chosen time frame. and in accordance with the chosen Modus operandi. The resultant of that analysis is a binary resolve. When a position is establish, most traders instead of continuously probing to find time window (opening), if...
What do yo u mean by the statement "most traders instead of continuously probing to find time window"? What should we be probing for and what time window are you talking about?

I'm interpreting this post of yours to mean... traders need to have a mindset of... decide bulls or bears, then go in with one of these convictions and don't second guess yourself.
  • #50,293
  • Oct 19, 2014 4:43am Oct 19, 2014 4:43am
Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #50,294
  • Oct 19, 2014 6:29am Oct 19, 2014 6:29am
Quoting fti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GT4iE...ature=youtu.be http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFVPBKpXXV4

thanks for sharing this. may god bless him. i reflected on myself too

Inserted Video
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #50,295
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:23am Oct 19, 2014 7:23am
Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #50,296
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:42am Oct 19, 2014 7:42am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
{quote} 1. I only know of patterns like 1 1 2 etc but I don't know how/when to use them. I'm also totally at a loss when it comes to using technical indicators as risk gauges that allow you to size positions if that's what you use them for. 2. Have been re-reading some earlier posts, I know some theory, but I don't understand it I think. I especially don't have the feel for what sort of order might have resulted in a particularly sized move i.e. after a move takes place, who or how much traded. 3. I think my mindset is different to last time. I...
hi, just to address point 1, the pattern is a pyramiding skew. see how ur average position price skews if u add entries by 1 1 1, it will lag the markets right? because u keep building the base below. while 1 1 2 is more aggressive than 1 1 1, as u are averaging to half your previous effective position price and the current market price right? so with 1 1 2 the recurrence relation is with each added price u will keep halving ur last total effective position price to the current position price. try to see how your position's foreign capital helps u weather draw down from ur last added entry, and that is how the money management for attacking works. though there are more ways to pyramid the trend, depending on how the markets are acting like. for my own personal attack skew, i do it 1 2 2 2 2 ..., but with a different mo, i scout with 1, attack with 2, attack with another 2, and take 1 from the top most position, then attack with 2 on a pull back, and take out 1 from that 2. the idea is, as the markets move against me, i slowly take attacks out, and add on more as the markets move in my direction, so in a sense building a strong base below, so foreign caps, and as the markets move against me, i can hold on more as my net total previous position with relation to the current entry, is 3 to 2, 4 to 2 and above, with is a strong base below. also i have more levels, because i divide my troops up, though the total exposed position with 1 1 2 is same, and that gives me the flexibility to adjust my position as i see fit. so, no rigidity there, just marry ur money management to ur mo and terrain reads, sometimes i see the terrain is not promising, i just deploy a scout collect some caps, and conduct as a scalp trade.

this is just an example to help u get started and as u find ur comfort level ur mm will evolve with it.
  • #50,297
  • Oct 19, 2014 8:20am Oct 19, 2014 8:20am
hahaha i like him.

Inserted Video
  • #50,298
  • Oct 19, 2014 8:04pm Oct 19, 2014 8:04pm
Hey guys, so my charts are pretty naked. Except for a couple of simple moving averages in my 5 mins chart so I can quickly reference the average price of the past hour, past 8 hours and past 24 hours. I don't believe in this MA crossing that MA or bounces off and all those mumbo jumbo. To me I think SMA do the job, and I like to think that I'm using it the way it is intended. So, I think I'm going off topic. Lol, so my question is, what's the deal with all the exponential and displaced? moving averages? are they just some more fancy fortune telling indicators?
Be like water making its way through cracks.
  • #50,299
  • Edited 5:15am Oct 20, 2014 5:01am | Edited 5:15am
Quoting ClumsyTrader
Hey guys, so my charts are pretty naked. Except for a couple of simple moving averages in my 5 mins chart so I can quickly reference the average price of the past hour, past 8 hours and past 24 hours. I don't believe in this MA crossing that MA or bounces off and all those mumbo jumbo. To me I think SMA do the job, and I like to think that I'm using it the way it is intended. So, I think I'm going off topic. Lol, so my question is, what's the deal with all the exponential and displaced? moving averages? are they just some more fancy fortune telling...
just a little.
For newbies, the MAs will guide you on what the 5 mins perspective or daily perspective average price is.
8 hours has no meaning. dealers on 6 hour shifts.
As you gain more experience trading and as you become price dancer, you will find that these tends slows you down , on your respondse to markets.
maybe some seconds. because mind gets distracted for a little.

There is nothing to believe or not not believe in MA crossings.
Although i like santa clause, i know he's not real.

so to answer your real question.
MAs, they smooth out the prices to drfferent smoothness depending on what type sandpaper you use.
The function of smoothing anything, makes loss in details.
the differnt time frames and methods of smoothing, gives different feels.

I don't really use any smoothing on my prices if i have to.
I like watching nice roses.
if i smooth out those roses pictures, i will only be able see colour dot?
I prefer see my roses in full detail.
but thats just me.

regards

ADD: in computer/photography terms the smoothing effects, is call interpolations.
you can use it to enlarge your thingy or make it less resolution.
different resolutions makes different feel.
i prefer raw up close and personal.
  • #50,300
  • Oct 20, 2014 5:12am Oct 20, 2014 5:12am
Here is my dance for today. Blue rectangles show the start and end of the trade. All trades were of size 1 since I'm not familiar with MM yet, scanned through 100 pages of the thread and wasn't able to find fti's post on MM, if anyone has the page number handy when he talks about it that would be handy otherwise I'll be reading through those pages anyway but will take some extra time.

Comments in regards to my dance welcome . Green = buy, red = sell, yellow = close. Last trade is long open. Trading demo since this is the first session in a long while, dusting off the cobwebs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dance 20_10_2014.png Size: 337 KB
31 traders viewing now