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Secret footprint in the markets

  • #61
  • Oct 12, 2014 6:52pm Oct 12, 2014 6:52pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yes but who said that 5 is the magical number, you can say it's 3, or 7 or any odd number except 1. It is just an unverified claim. I`m sure mr. Bill Williams didn't tested quantitatively the cluster sizes and came up with the conclusion of the "5" is the absolutely best number.I`m more likely to believe that he pulled that number out of his *ss. Otherwise show me the scientific documentation about this cluster analysis where it's scientifically proven that 5 is the magic number.
Prox. I'm going to help you but I have no time to fully explain ... so you'll have to develop a little bit ... don't tell anyone ... your magic number is 123581321

PS: Find new forms of Technical Analysis
Don't swim with the sharks ...
  • #62
  • Oct 12, 2014 7:08pm Oct 12, 2014 7:08pm
Hmmm this isn't going in the direction I'd hoped. I think Proximus is closest to where I was thinking. A lot of the posts are unhelpful. I little humour is great but only if you also have something productive to add.

This has focused my mind on something which whilst is isn't a footprint is definitely a decision catalyst for the market. I suspect these areas may coincide with some of the patterns in Proximus's work. Having said that it would really speed things up if I did actually have Rainman to look at it.
  • #63
  • Oct 12, 2014 7:20pm Oct 12, 2014 7:20pm
Quoting Hyperion
Hmmm this isn't going in the direction I'd hoped. I think Proximus is closest to where I was thinking. A lot of the posts are unhelpful. I little humour is great but only if you also have something productive to add. This has focused my mind on something which whilst is isn't a footprint is definitely a decision catalyst for the market. I suspect these areas may coincide with some of the patterns in Proximus's work. Having said that it would really speed things up if I did actually have Rainman to look at it.
What I am trying to say that this research is pointless, you might or might not find something useful, but i dont think you can separate the pattern from the noise with such a brute force.

This is why i dont research in this field because i dont believe that you can rigidly quantify candlesticks so that they will show you the direction, as a matter of fact candlestick is only a smoothed price difference in time, so i think the whole idea of looking for morning starts or bullish harami type patterns is wrong and naive.

There are patterns in the market, but not trough candlesticks, so here is a hint for you. Drops the sticks and focus instead on other things like volatility or/and trend, good luck.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #64
  • Oct 12, 2014 7:23pm Oct 12, 2014 7:23pm
Fair enough. Thanks for your input. I found it helpful.
  • #65
  • Oct 12, 2014 9:46pm Oct 12, 2014 9:46pm
Quoting Proximus
What I am trying to say that this research is pointless, you might or might not find something useful, but i dont think you can separate the pattern from the noise with such a brute force. This is why i dont research in this field because i dont believe that you can rigidly quantify candlesticks so that they will show you the direction, as a matter of fact candlestick is only a smoothed price difference in time, so i think the whole idea of looking for morning starts or bullish harami type patterns is wrong and naive. There are patterns in the market,...
Love you Proximus
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #66
  • Oct 12, 2014 10:09pm Oct 12, 2014 10:09pm
If you do find any secret information and feel kindness itching within you , then do share it with the forum members.
Thanks.
Striving to Develop & Implement Innovative Ideas
  • #67
  • Oct 12, 2014 11:14pm Oct 12, 2014 11:14pm
My take is rather simple. I'm not a statistician or anything like that.

Here are some VERY simple truths I've learned:

- the longer things stay the same, the more they need to change and the more dramatically they usually do.

- I believe there are patterns to price that have nothing to do with price levels themselves. There are multiple versions of what I call "differentials", or the distance between prices in multiple ways. These create VERY visible opportunities for scalping and swing trading.

- to trade this market effectively you have to look outside this market. Look carefully at correlations with equities, precious metals and commodities.

- being able to identify extended price moves is how you can be more predictive in your trading.

Like I said, real simple stuff....

The trick to all of it is building up a large enough data set. Probably a year or more depending on the pair. My choice is using 30m OPEN data. Yep. that's it. No more. HIGH? who cares. LOW? who cares. CLOSE? who cares.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #68
  • Oct 13, 2014 8:00am Oct 13, 2014 8:00am
Quoting tablet8
The Ultra experienced traders use a very simple rule. they don't use technical analysis they even don't trust it .they just stare at bare charts with no indicator. but they can read it better than us. they look the bare bars and easily decide if the price is cheap!!!(if yes they go long), if it is still too expensive the go short. if none, they wait . I have no idea of how they understand if a pair is cheap or expensive !!! maybe once they've been great wholesalers.
I have started to learn how to read the candles. You can't just look at the 5 minute or the 15, you have to keep an eye on all the time frames once an hour, 4hour, daily, and the hourly moves the most in the last 7-10 minutes to give a clue for the next hour, or the one after that. I saw this today (H1 GBP)
Attached Image
, (the second bar of the top middle 4 bars)a few hours before EU opened and wish I had put an order on. I was drilling cement this afternoon and could not watch, and I dislike stop losses where I can help it.
Second star to the right, and straight on 'til morning
  • #69
  • Oct 15, 2014 2:50pm Oct 15, 2014 2:50pm
Hmmmm, please don't show me candles, indicators and the like, there are plenty of other forums that cover those.

I am talking about the subconscious collective nudge that causes large traders to all do the same thing.
I have worked with many large traders and whilst they do talk to each other from time to time, they would often act in the same way without any prior discussion.
What was it? The moon?, their numerology? they all got the same number of red lights on the drive to work? Some other personal cycle or rhythm? I wasn't necessarily the charts and what they showed as interpreted by many here at FF. It was something else? I'm not saying they would hit the wave before it started and never look back, often they would be early and suffer slight draw-down, other times they would act with the momentum with terrible real-time trade location. Let's face it we have hundreds if not thousands of conscious and subliminal inputs that form our decisions. I don't think I am referring to data mining. Maybe I'm over thinking this. All I know is I think there is a subtle signal (which has nothing to do with price patterns, levels or indicators), which can give clues to direction. One analogy would be looking at one of those annoying magic pictures where you have to get your focus to look through it to actually see the picture... Yes that's it. Now I'm not advocating everyone goes out and goes on a Class A trip in order to find the hidden picture. Any thoughts on this anyone?
  • #70
  • Oct 15, 2014 7:57pm Oct 15, 2014 7:57pm
Quoting Hyperion
Hmmmm, please don't show me candles, indicators and the like, there are plenty of other forums that cover those. I am talking about the subconscious collective nudge that causes large traders to all do the same thing. I have worked with many large traders and whilst they do talk to each other from time to time, they would often act in the same way without any prior discussion. What was it? The moon?, their numerology? they all got the same number of red lights on the drive to work? Some other personal cycle or rhythm? I wasn't necessarily the charts...
No I don't think you are overthinking this.

I would just type my experiences down here regarding your line of thought. I hope you would understand where I am coming from.

I had considered this phenomenon before when I was still trading naked charts while still early in my trading career. I was making some profit, but I felt that I need to convert the decision making that was in my subconscious and unconscious part of my mind into something tangible. Therefore what I did is to look at both successful and unsuccessful trades and attempt to establish the common denominators.

This isn't easy, but as being IT systems trained, I compartmentalized my trading into many aspects. I felt that each aspect must be individually accounted for and tested. It is kind of like doing research to determine and extract the most important active ingredient that makes certain herbal cures effective e.g. discovery and extraction of aspirin from willow tree bark. Effectively, this allowed the transition of 'traditional medicine' to 'mainstream medicine'.

I am very much sold into this cause, and hence I develop my own charts and indicators with this modus operandi. This is also why I am very selective with what I want to integrate with my work. e.g. currently I am pretty much convinced on using the Market Profile with my own modifications. To move from traditional charting to unconventional ground breaking methods. Not to sell some indicator to people, but to 'take another step forward to unlock the truth'.

But this also means eliminating the money management aspect of trading. This is to take away the bias and clarify if the result of bad trading is a systems issue or a trader issue. This is something that IMO many ppl do not grasp sufficently and hence think that 'any system will work and its the trader that makes it work, hence the holy grail does not exist'.

My argument, being a systems creator, is that if that's the case, then why is it that there are also successful traders who repeatedly win in the market? Surely they are doing something right and its not exactly as mystical as we thought? Isn't this attempting to fight the motions of tradition and move into new ground? Hence that's also why I appreciate the works of Ray Barros, JP Steidlmayer, MasterForex-V and iDoubleStoch. They all want to push the limits, from the subliminal and subtle into something more tangible, and if you can somewhat call it, in the name of science and logic.

This process isn't easy. Although part of all this is actually about data mining from a data analytics perspective, its also about creating something that will not lose the plot and bottom line; trading the market. As much as I am trying to figure out myself and translate my thought process into an indicator, I need to be very careful to vet my thought process as well. There are days when the rational is lost and I trade pretty badly. Surely I do not want that to be translated into my indicators. That's the point; I want my logic and rational to be translated into something more reliable than my fallible human brain, as much as my mind itself is a wonderful thing. This way, I reduce trading errors and make successful trading more repeatable.

This leads up to being honest with oneself. Dealing with yourself, your conscious, subconscious and unconscious part is the toughest. Because if you are wrong, everything else falls apart; You -> Brain -> Indicator -> Trading -> Results. Once I was very plain honest with 'why am I doing all this', the entire chain process of reading the market correctly became a lot easier.

Granted, the technical side of the market is already not easy to tackle, as I've already explained above. Because you had more or less settled on that part, I suppose that its natural for you to question the non-technical side of things. Which as you can see from my wall of text, is indeed a very important question. I like that =)
  • #71
  • Oct 16, 2014 1:51am Oct 16, 2014 1:51am
That is no secret path in the market or market study .... its all vicky secret .... S and R ... zhat it ....
  • #72
  • Oct 16, 2014 9:33pm Oct 16, 2014 9:33pm
Quoting Steamer
That is no secret path in the market or market study .... its all vicky secret .... S and R ... zhat it ....
You mean Victoria's Secret?
Attached Image
  • #73
  • Edited 11:52pm Oct 17, 2014 7:33pm | Edited 11:52pm
emmppp .... baconnnn ......
  • #74
  • Oct 17, 2014 10:07pm Oct 17, 2014 10:07pm
Quoting Hyperion
I am talking about the subconscious collective nudge that causes large traders to all do the same thing. I have worked with many large traders and whilst they do talk to each other from time to time, they would often act in the same way without any prior discussion. What was it? The moon?, their numerology? they all got the same number of red lights on the drive to work? Some other personal cycle or rhythm?
not sure if this is what you want hear but I'll share anyway.. I had some mentoring from a guy who ran his own fund trading currencies and indexes, he could analyse a chart in a few seconds and tell you where current price had come from where it was going to, when the pro's had been buying to open or covering all with just price and volume , mind blowing stuff ... thousands of hrs of study and all his own work apparently
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #75
  • Oct 17, 2014 10:18pm Oct 17, 2014 10:18pm
Quoting headfake
{quote} not sure if this is what you want hear but I'll share anyway.. I had some mentoring from a guy who ran his own fund trading currencies and indexes, he could analyse a chart in a few seconds and tell you where current price had come from where it was going to, when the pro's had been buying to open or covering all with just price and volume , mind blowing stuff ... thousands of hrs of study and all his own work apparently
That sounds nice, but no one on this planet can do that. I agree that the market leaves footprints in the sand and whether or not they are "secret" is individual to the trader.

I can do the same thing as your mentor but it should always be emphasized that the market is fickle and can jump paths at whim. This bit you or he left out and it's the believe in this fallacy (that you can "always predict" where the market is going next) that brings most to their doom building ships to sail from rotted wood. Wood given to them by posts like this and the commercial book sellers and the brokers luring adds.

I could go on to explain "why" but that's a long post. Just interested to know if you were simply lazy with your words in that post or if you disagree with what I'm saying here?

Thank you
  • #76
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:21pm Oct 17, 2014 11:21pm
Quoting Kong
{quote} That sounds nice, but no one on this planet can do that. I agree that the market leaves footprints in the sand and whether or not they are "secret" is individual to the trader. I can do the same thing as your mentor but it should always be emphasized that the market is fickle and can jump paths at whim. This bit you or he left out and it's the believe in this fallacy (that you can "always predict" where the market is going next) that brings most to their doom building ships to sail from rotted wood. Wood given to them by posts like this...
I didn't really want to get into too much detail and write a long winded post, of course no one can say where a markets going to head further in the future with news events and all sorts of factors becoming involved as time progresses , the mentor could with a high degree of accuracy call a live chart right 19 out of 20 times, the short term direction, i can only comment on what iv'e seen, doesn't worry me whether you think no one on this planet can call a market and give live commentary on who's doing what....very interesting stuff, none of which I'll share here.... He was telling me the reason he left the public domain on the internet was because of all the negativity and you cant do this and that naysayers ....
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #77
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:25pm Oct 17, 2014 11:25pm
Quoting headfake
{quote} I didn't really want to get into too much detail and write a long winded post, of course no one can say where a markets going to head further in the future with news events and all sorts of factors becoming involved as time progresses , the mentor could with a high degree of accuracy call a live chart right 19 out of 20 times, the short term direction, i can only comment on what iv'e seen, doesn't worry me whether you think no one on this planet can call a market and give live commentary on who's doing what....very interesting stuff, none...
Fair enough, I'm not knocking your post, just wanted some further clarification. And I can relate to the negative internet thing, it's a real headache most of the time. Good trades
  • #78
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:31pm Oct 17, 2014 11:31pm
Quoting Kong
{quote} Fair enough, I'm not knocking your post, just wanted some further clarification. And I can relate to the negative internet thing, it's a real headache most of the time. Good trades
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #79
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:25am Oct 18, 2014 2:25am
Clue? Smoking-gun? Evidence?, Proof, Substantiation?, Telltale?, Tip-off?, Sure-sign?, Hint?, Information, Forecast ? Suggestion ?, Predication ? Forecast ? Secret Information? Pointer ? Inkling ?, Knowledge ? Verification?, Attestation ? Confirmation ?


... Foot print ?

Attached Image
  • #80
  • Oct 19, 2014 2:33pm Oct 19, 2014 2:33pm
Quoting Mingary
Clue? Smoking-gun? Evidence?, Proof, Substantiation?, Telltale?, Tip-off?, Sure-sign?, Hint?, Information, Forecast ? Suggestion ?, Predication ? Forecast ? Secret Information? Pointer ? Inkling ?, Knowledge ? Verification?, Attestation ? Confirmation ? ... Foot print ? {image}
Hi Mingary, thanks, but how is that last formation any different to the same one around 7973 which was taken out?
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