Attachments: Surfing Risk Intraday - Volume Profile and Order flow

Surfing Risk Intraday - Volume Profile and Order flow

#321
Oct 14, 2014 7:11am Oct 14, 2014 7:11am

Risk Surfer
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2013 | 252 Posts

Quoting Hoodlum

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Hey pal, good to see you posting again. Been off doing quite a bit of study over the last few months. I didn't really have a good enough understanding of the markets when I first found this volume profile stuff some time ago to put it to best use. However, in the meantime, I've been over at ReadTheMarket - a truly wonderful resource which has helped me make sense of what I'm seeing unfold on the charts every day - and I'm looking now at reintroducing some volume profiling into my trading. I've resurrected my old indis, and I'll try to make the custom,...

Ignored

Hey there, good to see you back too.

I tend to agree with your point about daily profiling. I look as a self fulfilling thing. Many people are watching them so I should be too. I particularly like it when something on a daily profile lines up with a level generated by my manual/custom profiles.

Keep it up sir!

Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1

#322
Oct 14, 2014 7:21am Oct 14, 2014 7:21am

Risk Surfer
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2013 | 252 Posts

Recap for October 10th

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1

#323
Oct 14, 2014 7:23am Oct 14, 2014 7:23am

Risk Surfer
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2013 | 252 Posts

Recap for October 13th - Original content - http://risksurfer.com/recap

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1

#324
Oct 15, 2014 6:51am Oct 15, 2014 6:51am

Risk Surfer
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2013 | 252 Posts

Recap for October 14th - Original content - http://risksurfer.com/recap

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1

#325
Oct 16, 2014 6:54am Oct 16, 2014 6:54am

Risk Surfer
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2013 | 252 Posts

Recap for October 15th - Original content - http://risksurfer.com/recap

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1

#326
Oct 17, 2014 6:45am Oct 17, 2014 6:45am

Risk Surfer
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2013 | 252 Posts

Recap for October 16th - Original content - http://risksurfer.com/recap

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1

#327
Oct 17, 2014 6:51am Oct 17, 2014 6:51am

Hoodlum
| Joined May 2014 | Status: Trader | 27 Posts

Hey pal - do you mind me posting up a couple of charts with my slightly longer term outlook based on what I can see on the charts? It's not based on volume profile, rather simply analysis of S/D and SR levels. No worries if you want to keep the thread for VP stuff only.

#328
Oct 17, 2014 7:13am Oct 17, 2014 7:13am

Risk Surfer
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2013 | 252 Posts

Quoting Hoodlum

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Hey pal - do you mind me posting up a couple of charts with my slightly longer term outlook based on what I can see on the charts? It's not based on volume profile, rather simply analysis of S/D and SR levels. No worries if you want to keep the thread for VP stuff only.

Ignored

Yeah go ahead H, always interested to hear your analysis.

Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1

#329
Oct 17, 2014 8:37am Oct 17, 2014 8:37am

Hoodlum
| Joined May 2014 | Status: Trader | 27 Posts

Ok, my data feed is crappy, so not sure of the accuracy of these levels.

Daily - we reacted strongly to the demand level shown in green. A few days prior, the decision was made to push price down through an important level, shown in red. We also have a SR flip level here shown in purple from previous highs/lows.

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H4 - I predict we will see price rise to the SR line initially at around 1891.5, before falling away to the fresh H4 demand level at around 1855, before pushing up to the fresh H4 supply at around 1900, before selling off sharply back down towards the base of the move.

There's also an argument to be made for a rise to 1920, which was is a fresh H4 supply level which formed the source of the engulf of the important level.

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This is all based on the concepts I've been learning over at ReadTheMarket. I'm not sure how it lines up with the volume analysis. I could be totally wrong (and probably will be) - in which case I'll be suitably embarrassed and not show my face for a while ;-)

#330
Edited 1:45pm Oct 21, 2014 6:40am | Edited 1:45pm

Hoodlum
| Joined May 2014 | Status: Trader | 27 Posts

Well we got a small reaction at 1900, but much more bullish than I thought, and price is now up and around the supply area that caused the engulf of the strong D1 surge area to the left.

I'd expect a strong reaction to this supply level, dropping down at possibly as far as the H4 demand zone I highlighted in my earlier post.

My friend came up with a good analogy - it's like supply/demand top trumps. There was a massive surge of buying from the engulfed daily level highlighted, which eventually led to new highs. So it stands to reason that there must have been a very high amount of selling pressure at this H4 supply level we are approaching to overcome that level, and momo past it. Therefore, there should be a good probability of a strong reaction short again upon the return to this level.

I won't post up any more after this, and stop polluting your thread with my amateurish analysis ;-)

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Cheers pal

Edit: well, looks like I got that one wrong. Believe it or not, I've been trading very successfully using these techniques on Forex! The fact we seem to have breezed through this zone without pausing is testament to the bullishness of the market. I had set a limit order, but in actuality, ideally you are supposed to monitor LTF on approach to the zone, and wait for an engulf of a demand area before entering short on a RT.

#331
Oct 21, 2014 3:21pm Oct 21, 2014 3:21pm

Risk Surfer
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2013 | 252 Posts

Quoting Hoodlum

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Well we got a small reaction at 1900, but much more bullish than I thought, and price is now up and around the supply area that caused the engulf of the strong D1 surge area to the left. I'd expect a strong reaction to this supply level, dropping down at possibly as far as the H4 demand zone I highlighted in my earlier post. My friend came up with a good analogy - it's like supply/demand top trumps. There was a massive surge of buying from the engulfed daily level highlighted, which eventually led to new highs. So it stands to reason that there...

Ignored

Hello mate, Only just seeing both your posts now, sorry about that.

I like your analysis, although I would say something you could add would be a bit more 'real time' analysis, e.g. assessing the state of the market when your zones are reached.

For example:
Firstly we know how strong the longer term trends are in the S&P are by just glancing at a weekly or monthly chart, so we know how unstoppable the market can be when it gets going to the upside. Then we have 2 sessions in a row where we open and immediately start trending higher (e.g. the low of the day is set within the first 1-2 minutes of trading and we never look back). We've also been 'grinding' higher i.e. drifting up with both buyers and sellers being active back and forth. This is never a good motion to fade - Believe it or not, I would have preferred shorting a level if the market was melting up into it, rather than this grind higher. (the melt up indicates potential exuberance).

Adding all this together I would certainly be staying away from the short side, but that's just me of course.

By the way it's very common to get carted on trades you announce publicly - sods law I think they call it

don't worry about it!

Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1

#332
Oct 21, 2014 3:29pm Oct 21, 2014 3:29pm

Hoodlum
| Joined May 2014 | Status: Trader | 27 Posts

Quote

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By the way it's very common to get carted on trades you announce publicly - sods law I think they call it don't worry about it!

Haha, glad it's not just me then. I have been using this style of analysis quite successfully, honest...

Yes you're 100% right about assessing the market when it gets in range. Patience is a big problem I'm battling, probably the last piece of the jigsaw. I've been wiping 50% off my demo account some days through sheer impatience, and then putting it all back and more with just a few good trades, that I should have waited for.

The RTM stuff teaches the same thing you say - that you should observe the approach to the zone, and then wait for a LTF engulf of the nearest significant S/D area, before entering on a RT. I just thought this level looked so strong, what with the move from it engulfing that large daily surge, that it would be safe for a limit order - that's what I get for trying to be a smartass!

I'm a complete noob with trading the S&P with it's fixed trading window, so I was unprepared for the strength of the upsurge. Hope you got a piece of the pie.

#333
Oct 23, 2014 6:53am Oct 23, 2014 6:53am

Risk Surfer
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2013 | 252 Posts

Recap for October 22nd - Original content - http://risksurfer.com/recap

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1

#334
Oct 23, 2014 6:58am Oct 23, 2014 6:58am

Risk Surfer
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2013 | 252 Posts

Quoting Hoodlum

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{quote} Haha, glad it's not just me then. I have been using this style of analysis quite successfully, honest... Yes you're 100% right about assessing the market when it gets in range. Patience is a big problem I'm battling, probably the last piece of the jigsaw. I've been wiping 50% off my demo account some days through sheer impatience, and then putting it all back and more with just a few good trades, that I should have waited for. The RTM stuff teaches the same thing you say - that you should observe the approach to the zone, and...

Ignored

Sounds like you're doing perfectly well, patience is something that comes naturally after being beaten up over and over, it can't be learnt in a book.
BTW that's some serious leverage you're using.. unrealistic for a live account but I'm sure you know that

Looking forward to more charts!

Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1