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Entering a new position - reverse strategy

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 16, 2014 11:40pm Oct 16, 2014 11:40pm
Hi there I am curious and I have always wondered if anyone else has also discovered this annoying fact. What I am referring to is this. Upon having studied the trend of a currency pair and it screams out to you to, to Sell and or to Buy that the trend then completely changes direction just after you entered the market and you are left with a position that is now going in the complete opposite direction. It has happened a few times, (more then I care to remind myself). If this has happened to you, I know how you feel. Accordingly I am going to try this whole new entry system and this is what it is. Upon being certain that that the currency pair indicates a Sell, I am going to Buy. I will let you know how I get on.
  • #2
  • Oct 17, 2014 12:21am Oct 17, 2014 12:21am
  •  FerruFx
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,542 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Hwdfx
Upon having studied the trend of a currency pair and it screams out to you to, to Sell and or to Buy that the trend then completely changes direction just after you entered the market and you are left with a position that is now going in the complete opposite direction.
When you are wrong, accept - cut - the loss and look for a new fresh signal. Never keep a position hoping the price will revert back to the right direction.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #3
  • Oct 17, 2014 2:26am Oct 17, 2014 2:26am
Quoting grin
{quote} This is what pros at banks and hedge funds do while fools buy on indication to buy.
Yes I totally agree, the market never behaves the way we expect it to. BTW thank you for your input
  • #4
  • Oct 17, 2014 2:38am Oct 17, 2014 2:38am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} When you are wrong, accept - cut - the loss and look for a new fresh signal. Never keep a position hoping the price will revert back to the right direction.
I agree with what you are saying however I do not like having had cut a position only to find that that it was the correct position in the first place. I guess that it is just the beast that we have to contend with. Many thanks
  • #5
  • Oct 17, 2014 4:06am Oct 17, 2014 4:06am
Take a minimum position such that you do not lose sleep if it goes against you. Add further, if the trend sustains.
  • #6
  • Oct 17, 2014 4:21am Oct 17, 2014 4:21am
Hi All
HWdfx

Glad to see a thread about this issue
Regarding your idea about reversing the direction of trend at the time of opening position, i should say,
You will find so many strategies and approaches for finding the best way to get profit in this Market but most of then if not all fail
The reason of that is the way traders considering and analysing the market
if you look at at my analysis in this site during the years you will find most of them are accurate not because i find specific system or indicators ... No
i try to find out the way the bank of different countries considering the pairs for being between two levels during the month, that's all and then using specific tools to filtering my analysis during the day, week, and month.
In this way you are in the right side of market most of the time
You can check my analysis in this site more than 2 years.
Cheers
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #7
  • Oct 17, 2014 5:01am Oct 17, 2014 5:01am
Quoting Hwdfx
Hi there I am curious and I have always wondered if anyone else has also discovered this annoying fact. What I am referring to is this. Upon having studied the trend of a currency pair and it screams out to you to, to Sell and or to Buy that the trend then completely changes direction just after you entered the market and you are left with a position that is now going in the complete opposite direction. It has happened a few times, (more then I care to remind myself). If this has happened to you, I know how you feel. Accordingly I am going to try...
That's one reason why I stopped doing manual trading with indicators or signals ....
If you ask me to code/fix your EA... it's probably not for free...
  • #8
  • Oct 17, 2014 5:20am Oct 17, 2014 5:20am
Quoting Hwdfx
Hi there I am curious and I have always wondered if anyone else has also discovered this annoying fact. What I am referring to is this. Upon having studied the trend of a currency pair and it screams out to you to, to Sell and or to Buy that the trend then completely changes direction just after you entered the market and you are left with a position that is now going in the complete opposite direction. It has happened a few times, (more then I care to remind myself). If this has happened to you, I know how you feel. Accordingly I am going to try...

Hi Hwdfx,

Which TF are you trading from?

Trading with the trend on the higher TFs is far more reliable.

Look for swing points and Higher Highs and Higher Lows in an up trend and Lower Highs and Lower Lows in a down trend.

Or am I missing something?
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  • #9
  • Oct 17, 2014 5:24am Oct 17, 2014 5:24am
Quoting Hwdfx
What I am referring to is this. Upon having studied the trend of a currency pair and it screams out to you to, to Sell and or to Buy that the trend then completely changes direction just after you entered the market and you are left with a position that is now going in the complete opposite direction.
You are clearly buying high and selling low.
  • #10
  • Oct 17, 2014 5:37am Oct 17, 2014 5:37am
DEAR ALL FRIENDS,


i am always reminding in my thead samer0000/ssii the fact that if you open one trade of 0.01 lot for example, there are so many huge frms and big players will open diretly the oppoit of your trade x 10000000 times to make your rade to triger the stop loss.

yes i have saw it many and many times, open sell, then the market will go north ( even if i am selling from the top top top extreme high of the pair ) real examples $/mxn , $/rub, $/try, e/try..... and i am waiting and waiting as per the rules of my ssii and yes i am getting good results after few days...

one of my friends as i have mentioned in my thread had lost 12,000 in one month due to many reasons and he asked me to help and i took the ride and am now trying to kepp his account open, so from 1100 usd we have reached to 1674 usd in few days as per the rules of ssii....long story,

the aim here to show you that i have opened some real trades for this freind in his account and all indi he used were showing sell, but the proice went north for weeks but again, it came down and on today we have closed few trade with good profit compared to 0.01 lot.....

if you are a real rader then you will spare me the time for further explination of the huge profit of 0.01 to 0.03 lot if compared to other lots size

enjoy the results : AHMED , KEEP READING THE RESULTS OF YOUR ACCOUNT TO LEARN HOW TO OVERCOME SUCH DEFCET IN YOUR WAY OF TRADING

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As you can see from the above post, most of the trades have closed with +ve swap and this swap had made the best profit, andd it is better than the real take profit assigned.

Now, for your question, to open reverse trade ....theis is called countter trend trading and it has so many different rules... Each theory has different +ve and many many -ve's ... But all will show one thing :

trading against the trend......

your trend is not your friend
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #11
  • Oct 17, 2014 5:55am Oct 17, 2014 5:55am
ONE OF THE BEST AND REALLY THE MOST INDI CAN HELP COUNTER TREND TRADERS IS CALLED " UNLUCKILY" .... TREND CCI....
IT IS FOUND HERE IN THE FF, IN ONE OF THE THREADS,,I CAN NOT RECALL THE NAME.... IF YOU TRY TO SEARCH FOR IT YOU WILL FIND IT ...USE IT WHEN THE BAR IS MORE THAN 200 TO MAKE YOUR SELL OR LESS THAN -200 TO MAKE YOUR BUY .... BUT IN BOTH CASES ONCE YOU HAVE OPENED THE TRADE, THE MARKET 10000000000000% WILL GO DIRECTLY AGANST YOU AS I HAVE SAID BEFORE , THEN IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GO IN YOUR FAVOUR................SO THIS IS THE SIMPLEST COUNTER TREND SYSTEM.... THEN YOU WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING COMPOUNDING TO NEARBY THE LOSSES TO YOUR FAVOUR ....AND SO ON... TILL YOU MASTER THIS STRAETGY

GOOD LUCK AND HAVE A HAPPY PIPING..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #12
  • Oct 17, 2014 6:42am Oct 17, 2014 6:42am
Quoting Hwdfx
Hi there I am curious ..... completely changes direction just after you entered the market ....... Accordingly I am going to try this whole new entry system and this is what it is. Upon being certain that that the currency pair indicates a Sell, I am going to Buy. I will let you know how I get on.
This is a very BAD idea.
You need to take a step back and have a look at WHY this keeps happening to you.
The answer is quite simple.....
You need to take a reference point from a higher time frame and make sure you are trading in the direction of the longer term trend.

Instead of simply guessing your way through the situation, take the time to learn the business. To survive and prosper in this business, you need to analyze each of your losing trades and try to work out why they happened.
Work for the long term. Learn, learn, learn, rather than guess.
Hope this helps.
Cheers, H
  • #13
  • Oct 17, 2014 6:46am Oct 17, 2014 6:46am
Quoting Hwdfx
Upon being certain that that the currency pair indicates a Sell, I am going to Buy. I will let you know how I get on.
Lol, the only certainty is change
OK so you want to be a swing trader. Good luck, you need to have great conviction in your calls to go against the herd
Edit : Christ(church) mate it must be tricky trading from NZ, how you finding it?
PS Did you just catch that top on cable at 6125
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #14
  • Oct 18, 2014 10:16am Oct 18, 2014 10:16am
Quoting Hwdfx
Hi there I am curious and I have always wondered if anyone else has also discovered this annoying fact. What I am referring to is this. Upon having studied the trend of a currency pair and it screams out to you to, to Sell and or to Buy that the trend then completely changes direction just after you entered the market and you are left with a position that is now going in the complete opposite direction.
I can't agree more Hwdfx. I've thought about it many times as well and tried a couple of times but it doesn't seem to work... however I haven't just given up there. I kept thinking about it and seeing what could be done to make this work. I googled it and found many threads on forexfactory and other websites, saying it won't work because of the spread and such. it's true what they say,... but wait, isn't there things they could be missing..? I thought.

in forex market, most of them are beginners, right. and they are the ones that jump to the first signal or whenever they "think" it's going down or up. which is just impulsive action the banks and hedge funds pray on. When I used to manual trade with no indicators, it was like magic. I daytraded everyday and there was less than 10days I made profit, out of a year.

I have been reading things and the very successful amateur traders that showed their strategy, they used oanda's position ratio book. their philosophy was "the mass is always wrong".

anyway, is your strategy just buying when there is sell signal, and vice versa so far?
  • #15
  • Oct 18, 2014 10:44am Oct 18, 2014 10:44am
so my losing probability is more than 90% but one won't make money doing my opposite because of the spreads. if you look at the position ratio chart on this website.. yes, you are able to ignore the spread problem because you are the one that decides the entry point. you don't need to modify the entry point and TP and SL point according to some1 else's entry. you are free from the spread problem by it. however... I couldn't figure out how to really use the position ratio chart. what indicators should I use with it, what do I do if the ratio hasn't changed much?

there is a new guy who uses oanda's position ratio book. he got on some magazines in jp because he is still a university student and very successful fx trader. it's the best university in japan so I suppose he is pretty smart. this guy looks at oanda's order position and said that he does reversal trading, by looking at where people set pending orders the most.
  • #16
  • Last Post: Oct 18, 2014 3:48pm Oct 18, 2014 3:48pm
Quoting Hwdfx
Hi there I am curious and I have always wondered if anyone else has also discovered this annoying fact. What I am referring to is this. Upon having studied the trend of a currency pair and it screams out to you to, to Sell and or to Buy that the trend then completely changes direction just after you entered the market and you are left with a position that is now going in the complete opposite direction. It has happened a few times, (more then I care to remind myself). If this has happened to you, I know how you feel. Accordingly I am going to try...
i hope now you dont still have this skewed thinking mentality about trend.that 'going in opposite direction' is called a retracement of the trend and if you are good enough you can trade it and make money
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