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Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

  • #401
  • Edited 4:00pm Oct 16, 2014 3:30pm | Edited 4:00pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
{quote} OUTSTANDING G.!! Do I understand that you are basically trading inside the current week and not holding positions for the long term? What if you have a great position well placed on a Weekly wick, will you try to hold at least that one going into Retracement or Reversal? AG
Most of my trades are inside the week. I will carry over a lot or two now and then just because the trade looks so good. So, for instance, I have two lots on AChf long right now and the trade looks pretty good. If I'm still it by Friday, I may cash in the most profitable lot to help my weekly numbers and carry the other over until next week. That also cuts my weekend gap risk by half.

I have a longer term position trade in S&P 500 that I added to today. I originally bought into it on the infamous "Haines Bottom", when the late CNBC anchor Mark Haines said he thought the market had hit a bottom in March 2009. I was watching him announce the market carnage live and I thought at the time, that was the gutsiest Stock Market call I'd ever heard, calling the market bottom to the minute in front of millions of viewers, so I went in with him. It turned out to be a parting gift to his loyal viewers. I've never cashed a position out of it. I'm not really sure what to do with it other add to it when 10% or larger retracements occur. I really liked Mark, may he rest in peace.
  • #402
  • Oct 16, 2014 6:39pm Oct 16, 2014 6:39pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Yes, reversals out the wazu. It seems we caught another case of Ebola as well as had some bad economic news. Those things happen, but the question is how to deal with it and not get knocked off the rails. There are two sorts of bad situations that can occur. One is just a random loss every now and then. We don't worry over those. They can't be prevented. We just cut them short and keep on trading. The other situation is a pattern of major reversals that sweeps through the markets like we had these past two weeks. That can be devastating...
Exactly! My issue is I took some good movement to be a sign things were getting back to work as normal and I could get in as it begins. Wrong!!!!!!

Anyhow none of my stops have triggered yet and last night the UC almost got back up to BE before dropping again during the US session. Lets see what happens today.
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #403
  • Edited 9:02pm Oct 16, 2014 7:56pm | Edited 9:02pm
Today's dilemma!

With all the reverses lately there has been great opportunities to enter into trends. Take a look at this chart of GBPUSD. 2 days of reversal price action in a still stable downtrend gives us some free pips if we were to place Entry orders at the bottom or even half way along yesterdays candle. Should price correct and continue south we can be automatically triggered to glide along with it and gain some free pips instead of waiting for confirmation the trend will continue.

Normally this would be a good idea but with the markets being so fickle as they have in the past 2 weeks I am reluctant to do this and would rather add another position once my existing position gets back to +30p according to my rules.

Decisions! Decisions!

Plus the angle and similarity of the 2 stochs on this chart is scarey. This may actually be the beginning of change of trend or at least a period of ranging.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU20141017D.jpg Size: 176 KB
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #404
  • Oct 16, 2014 11:45pm Oct 16, 2014 11:45pm
Quoting marshalmax
Today's dilemma! With all the reverses lately there has been great opportunities to enter into trends. Take a look at this chart of GBPUSD. 2 days of reversal price action in a still stable downtrend gives us some free pips if we were to place Entry orders at the bottom or even half way along yesterdays candle. Should price correct and continue south we can be automatically triggered to glide along with it and gain some free pips instead of waiting for confirmation the trend will continue. Normally this would be a good idea but with the markets...
Go one timeframe down, to the GU H4, and the stoch will tell you the retracement in the downtrend is ending and it's about to take another leg down. Of course, the stoch wont give you your money back if it's wrong. Move up to the Monthly and you see it has 1,000 pips to fall before hitting the major support below. I'm just seeing another retracement nearing an end here in a long downtrend. I'm not calling tops and bottoms. That's a dangerous game to play. I'll watch price drop another 30 to 40 pips, then enter short and try to catch most of the next leg down. Yes, price could turn back up, but if it does, it would have to move up 100 to 200 pips before I'd believe it's reversed to an up trend. If it did, it would have 1000 pips to run before hitting the old resistance, so no hurry to get into that one. I'd draw the retracement uptrend line just as you did on the previous two retracements and wait to see if price will break it returning to the longer term downtrend, but that's just me.
  • #405
  • Oct 17, 2014 12:39am Oct 17, 2014 12:39am
Yeah actually a retrace line like that down a timeframe onto the H4 could be a good point to enter another trade should a H4 candle close below the line.

The issue I have now is that each of the retraces are a steeper and steeper angle which tells me support for that action is stronger and stronger each time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU20141017H4.jpg Size: 193 KB
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #406
  • Edited 8:00am Oct 17, 2014 7:35am | Edited 8:00am
Quoting marshalmax
Yeah actually a retrace line like that down a timeframe onto the H4 could be a good point to enter another trade should a H4 candle close below the line. The issue I have now is that each of the retraces are a steeper and steeper angle which tells me support for that action is stronger and stronger each time. {image}
Yea, hard to say, head fake, reversal? It's still making a series of lower highs and lower lows which defines it in a downtrend for the moment. The previous lower high around 10/9 was 1.6226 and if price crosses above that it's no longer in a technical downtrend. It's a few hundred pips up then to the top of the Railroad tracks or long shadow or what ever you want to call the top of the next resistance at about 1.6522 of 9/19. At this point, it's about a 50% chance that price will dive below the retracement trendline and make a new low. I'll watch it. I show it looking like this at the moment, GU H4:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU H4.PNG Size: 70 KB
  • #407
  • Oct 17, 2014 4:13pm Oct 17, 2014 4:13pm
Went flat for the weekend. I see no compelling reason to take the risk of the weekend gap as I can re-enter Monday for just a few pips.
  • #408
  • Oct 21, 2014 4:24pm Oct 21, 2014 4:24pm
A question. Do you think trends are shorter than they used to be 10 years ago? I often see smaller chances to make profit using recent backtests and forward tests than say 10 years ago before the influx of robotic trading. Could chasing trends on the Daily charts be harder to do than in the past and should we instead be trend followers on the H4 charts?
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #409
  • Edited 10:05pm Oct 21, 2014 9:51pm | Edited 10:05pm
Quoting marshalmax
A question. Do you think trends are shorter than they used to be 10 years ago? I often see smaller chances to make profit using recent backtests and forward tests than say 10 years ago before the influx of robotic trading. Could chasing trends on the Daily charts be harder to do than in the past and should we instead be trend followers on the H4 charts?
Yes, recently like in the past month or so trends just haven't been persisting well. If you look at EU, AU, GU weekly, they are all about in the range of where they were a month ago. The month before they were all racing down nicely as the dollar soared. From may to sept the EU dropped about 1200 pips, not bad, but back in 2010 we could get that in one month. I attribute a lot of this to attempts to stabilize currencies by Central Banks post 2009 meltdown. If you look at the monthly chart in most pairs, you can see this month stunk for trends and last month was pretty good. If we accept that we can only take what the market gives, we'll have good months and dead ones. There were dead months going all the way back 10 years or more. In the end, it's a mistake to try to ride a trend when there is none. You can either range trade or just sit on the sidelines. If you try to trade a trend when the market is just whipsawing around, you'll take loss after loss trying to catch a trend. In a market like that, you may as well take up fishing or golf. I'm no expert at range trading for 50 pips on a swing, but some can do well at it I suppose. I'm mostly just sitting on the sidelines now, waiting for the market to take off in one direction or the other. I have one small trade on EN short, but I hold no illusions that it will be THE trade that makes my month. Odds are I'll exit it near BE or for a very small profit.
  • #410
  • Oct 21, 2014 11:08pm Oct 21, 2014 11:08pm
Good response.

I have been backtesting a small range trading strategy based on my normal daily strategy but with some more aggressive check boxes focussing on more wins than losses to make profit overall. Looking good so far but I was a little concerned that trends just dont last long anymore and that maybe I need to focus on range trading as my #1 strategy.
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #411
  • Oct 22, 2014 10:55am Oct 22, 2014 10:55am
Quoting marshalmax
Good response. I have been backtesting a small range trading strategy based on my normal daily strategy but with some more aggressive check boxes focussing on more wins than losses to make profit overall. Looking good so far but I was a little concerned that trends just dont last long anymore and that maybe I need to focus on range trading as my #1 strategy.
It's usually darkest just before the dawn. Just about the time you think you'll never catch a good trend again the market will take off. I have 4 very small test trades on now, EN, EU short and NChf, UChf long. They are all positive at the moment, but I won't risk much on them. If the market turns I'll bail with very small profits. If it continues I'll add more to them. Just trying to be patient. It was a bad month for trend followers, but that's why many don't follow trends, they get shaken out of their trades with just one bad month and wander off trying to do something else. In the end, if you make a profit in this business, it's from following some sort of trend, whether it is 20 or 2000 pips, up or down. One thing is for sure, losing is a very hard way to win. Widening stops a lot to try to avoid the whipsaws just makes for more damaging whipsaws. The problem is never the stop setting. The problem is the market is not consistently trending in the direction of the trade. It may not be consistently trending in any direction, in which case I'll go do something else.
  • #412
  • Edited 5:40pm Oct 22, 2014 5:09pm | Edited 5:40pm
Yeah I am keen on EU short as well. Havent dipped in yet but watching. Still long on USDCAD and AUDCAD but all of those trades are in the red badly even though they nearly got back to BE yesterday. Signs still look good for long so I am waiting for market to take a direction on those so I can either be right or wrong. Not hovering around wondering.

EU Daily looks good for continued short trending but the H4 recently had a massive move down which I missed and is now in oversold and has been for a while which means it could either continue to drop or reverse quickly. We all know trends begin in the smaller timeframes so H1 will be used to spot a good move south to enter into. Currently waiting for the short term stoch (green) to turn back downwards on the H1.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU20141023D.jpg Size: 186 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU20141023H4.jpg Size: 178 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU20141023H1.jpg Size: 162 KB
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #413
  • Oct 22, 2014 9:25pm Oct 22, 2014 9:25pm
EU did come good on H1 chart but saw it late and waiting for current candle to close to enter short.

EG has been short for a few days and finally started moving today and is currently +40p with stochs still pointing down so I have added a 2nd position to that one.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU20141023H1b.jpg Size: 165 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EG20141023H1.jpg Size: 168 KB
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #414
  • Edited Oct 24, 2014 9:06am Oct 23, 2014 12:38pm | Edited Oct 24, 2014 9:06am
Yes, the market is starting to line back out. You can start to sense these market swings after a time. I finally have three trades on, UJ, UChf long and EU short. All are at two lots now. I'll either bail quickly near BE on all three or put a third lot on. The market will decide.

Update: Almost as soon as I typed that, another case of Ebola was discovered in New York, sending another panic through the markets. It's stupid really. Only one person has died in the US from Ebola. Each year there are about 30 million cases of the flu in the US. About 200,000 people are hospitalized and about 30,000 die each year in the US from flu, but there is no panic. Oh well, this is the market and we just have to roll with it's changes.
  • #415
  • Oct 29, 2014 7:35pm Oct 29, 2014 7:35pm
Damn Ebola scares are annoying the shit out of me and my positions! Ended up having around 8 trades open and all moved in my direction +20 to 30p each before that last scare which dropped them all to around -100 to -200p each. Closed them all yesterday and looked for new trades and entered another 5 new ones which all moved +20-40 each last night only to drop again now to -40. Wtf?
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #416
  • Edited 10:41am Oct 30, 2014 10:27am | Edited 10:41am
Quoting marshalmax
Damn Ebola scares are annoying the shit out of me and my positions! Ended up having around 8 trades open and all moved in my direction +20 to 30p each before that last scare which dropped them all to around -100 to -200p each. Closed them all yesterday and looked for new trades and entered another 5 new ones which all moved +20-40 each last night only to drop again now to -40. Wtf?
Yes, it's been tough out there. I reduced my trade size to 1/5th my previous size this week. I've also tightened up my trade criteria so I'm taking fewer trades right now. I'll increase it back when trading is easy again, but there's too much risk in the markets at the moment for me to trade large. Most of my trades have exited at close to BE for the past couple weeks. Prices seem to be moving in tight ranges and there is nothing I can do about that. Just exited a 3-lot ECad short at Break Even. I have a long UJ 3 lot trade up +75 at the moment.

All I can say is that when trading is hard, reduce your risk and wait for it to get easy again. When trading is easy, pour the coal on the fire and make your profits while you can. Expect it to get hard again, as it always moves back and forth and cut back quickly when it does. It's ok to get concerned and cut back too soon or too much and miss a bit of profits. It's not ok to try to ride through tough times and lose back all your hard earned profits. To win over the long haul, you have to reduce risks MUCH faster in hard times than you increase them in good times.

So, if trading is easy, pour on the coal and maximize your opportunity, but expect it to get hard in the future and cut back quickly at the first sign of difficulty. Forget about missed opportunity costs. That is just a myth. If trading is hard, reduce risks significantly and keep reducing them until it gets easy again, which it always will eventually. Tightening stops doesn't reduce risk, it just causes more stop outs on quick spikes. To reduce risks, you have to reduce the number of trades taken and/or reduce the size of those trades.

It's easy to overthink that situation. You don't need anything more fancy than your P&L statement to decide which way to go, increasing risk or decreasing risks. if you are winning, increase your number of trades and the size of your trades. If you are losing, reduce your risks. Over a long period of trading, months and years, we'll have both good and bad periods. As traders, we have no control over the markets, but we can have complete control over how we respond to them, and it's how we respond that determines our profits and losses.
  • #417
  • Oct 30, 2014 1:26pm Oct 30, 2014 1:26pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Yes, it's been tough out there. I reduced my trade size to 1/5th my previous size this week. I've also tightened up my trade criteria so I'm taking fewer trades right now. I'll increase it back when trading is easy again, but there's too much risk in the markets at the moment for me to trade large. ...................If you are winning, increase your number of trades and the size of your trades. If you are losing, reduce your risks. Over a long period of trading, months and years, we'll have both good and bad periods. As traders, we have...
Thanks G, I always appreciate your comments. AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #418
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:11pm Oct 30, 2014 9:11pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} I've also tightened up my trade criteria.
I know what you mean. I added a 3rd stoch to my 2 stoch indi and have backtested taking trades only when all 3 get into the overbought or oversold locations thereby putting me into strong trends and riding them. So I look for that on the Daily and then wait for same on H4 and then enter when same happens on H1. So far this week I have entered 4 trades and all 4 are now up with a #2 trade added to one of them when they go to +50p. So +200p up on all 5 so far.

If I only take trades once all 3 stochs on all 3 timeframes lines up and stack them heavy as they go, backtesting shows very good profits with very good accuracy!

Here is the AUDJPY in my live account showing all 3 stochs crossed above 50% (more agressive entry). I mark the qualifying candle with a vertical blue (long) line and then drill down to the H4 chart where I look for the same conditions. On the H4 chart you can see the vertical blue line and all stochs were above the overbought line and pointing upwards so I drill down to the H1 chart. On the H1 chart the 1st thick blue vertical shows where I began looking to enter and because stochs were pointing down I added an Entry order to previous high so if price reversed and went up I would be in and along with the impulse. I did the same tactic recently at the 2nd thick blue vertical.

Did the same with CADJPY and USDJPY
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ20141031D.jpg Size: 198 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ20141031H4.jpg Size: 170 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ20141031H1.jpg Size: 186 KB
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #419
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:21pm Oct 30, 2014 9:21pm
very nice thread, Graviton! excellent posts.
As Above, So Below
  • #420
  • Oct 31, 2014 12:00am Oct 31, 2014 12:00am
Wow big drop in Yen a few mins ago resulted in all the JPY pairs rising madly. I was in 5 trades with 4 in AUDJPY, CADJPY and USDJPY for a total of around +200 and all of a sudden I was up over +700p in minutes. So taking G's advice from earlier in this thread I closed my 2 biggest trades for +120 and +140 profits.
Winners add to winning trades!
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