Too smart to see the trend

Smart as they are, so they always make mistakes;
Smart as they are, so they can not see the trend;
Smart as they are, so they do not follow the trend directely, but try to catch the top or bottom, or just wait;
Smart man focus on forcasting or prediction, that is, as they believe, where they can show their clever;That is why they are busy with predicting top, bottom, this or that, but never following the trend immediately.

So true, and that is one of the reasons why so few make money.

GREEN pips to one and all.

Please, tell us, what is the current trend (in anything you wish).

But I will understand if you will keep this to yourself.

But do come back a few months from now to tell us how it is to be filthy rich from forex, for surely following the trend immediately will do that to you.

yes, that is true.

After 7 years on FX trading, now I know, not only in the market, but also in our daily lives:

People are just too smart to see the truth. They keep looking but can not see.

Now I am trading like a fool, a real damfool. Jesus, the feeling and the result are both so great.

friend can you explain how you detect or define trend

Don't need to see a price chart to know where the macro trends are if you keep up with the market.

+ Perception of Distance
+ Reaction of Distance
+ action Lag of Distance
+ Effective action of Distance ......... MX 2 C
------------------------------

the answer is already in my words

Distance..... a good word

I need to see the chart to know where it has been.
Sorry if I misunderstand you.

Usually when a rate rises or falls by a lot there's a headline as to why traders have bought or sold it. Those headlines are all you'll need to see the direction its been on.
ie; Euro deflation headlines last 6 months, now Germany slowing down. I know Euro is on downtrend.
Bank of Japan been doing crazy Q&QE to spark inflation the last 18 months = Jpy downtrend
RBA cutting rates while RBNZ kept rates stable/started tightening by raising = Aud/Nzd down

+ time of xecution
+ conclusion of the trade

sorry, but what is :

+ Perception of Distance
+ Reaction of Distance
+ action Lag of Distance
+ Effective action of Distance ......... MX 2 C
------------------------------
+ time of xecution
+ conclusion of the trade

Hello Cafitis, I won't ask you to disclose how you are trading, but what process did you go through that allowed you to discover this?

Hi, I started trading Dec 2007, all I did was just keeping trading, keeping losing, keeping looking and keeping thinking. I got no any support or directing or coach or guidebook, etc. I look for everything I want only in the market.

For me, that is the only way to find a right method.
All I said in my first post, is the method and the result. It is not the way to find the right method.

It is true that you can see the market clearly with child's eyes.

However, it is very funny that even today, every when I try to be smart, I will lose tones of money. Jesus!! why human beings are always try to be smart?

Absolutely right my friend and to answer some of the guys here who are asking what is the current trend, thats easy, the tick chart direction is the trend pure and simple as price can only go up or down simple as that. and don't waste your time telling me it can go sideways too becos if the tick box goes sideways its irrelevant you can't lose money if it just goes sideways.

So how can you make money with this incredible knowledge??

Simple find a 1 minute chart thats 10 sma is almost vertical, lets say going up for arguments sake, open up the tick chart and place a pending buy stop with a 3 to 5 pip stop on your chart ready for you to drag into place. Watch the tick chart soon as you see a down trend on the tick chart drag your pending order down as close to the ask price as you can say 1 pip above it.Actually thinking about it maybe above the last LH. Basically you're trading a breakout trade on the tick box. Go to BE immediately you're in profit say 1 pip max!!! don't worry about being knocked out at BE obviously a fake out just start again on next tick box down trend.

What will happen is the tick chart will suddenly reverse and start trending back up instantly taking you in and many times straight to BE in the same tick. What you're find happens is you will have a few 3 to 5 pip losers quite a few break evens but relatively huge RR's with 10, 15 20plus winners.

Hold until the 10sma is crossed. Pictures are better than a thousand words so heres what I'm talking about on a chart. Every red candle is when the tick chart would be trending down. But if you watch a tick chart you would see many more down trends. Remember you're going to BE after every entry so you could load at every tick chart reversal , just imagine the profit if you did this??? Load at every pullback that is....



The secret to this system is to only trade the strongest moving trends on a low spread pair like EURUSD or GBPUSD so you have to wait for them to setup as a strong trend with the 10sma almost vertical one way or the other. The other secret is that your losers will be so much smaller than your winners and that is the secret to becoming a successful trader small losers big winners...


Remember the secret is to wait for the 10 sma to be sloping one way or the other very steeply just after a turn too so its got some room to run. Remember the end of one trend is the start of the next.

I've been doing something similar using a 35lwma and doubled my demo account thursday and friday last week. Its all on my thread if you're interested apart from this idea which I woke up with this morning and seeing the title here thought I would share my thoughts.

Anyway just a thought will be doing it all next week will be interesting to see how I get on

That's very interesting. So in your opinion, seeing the market through child's eyes allows one to see the immediate trend?

I think I know where our friend is coming from, if you look at a chart with no opinion as to where it is going and no beliefs about its destination,no moving averages, no indicators nothing other than the candle colour, just a simple, I will follow the trend then lets say the trend is defined by 2 candles in a row the same colur then enter in the direction of that colour eg 2 green candles together then buy then exit is by trailing stop up behind first reverse coloured candle until stopped out just looking at some random charts even on a 1 minute timeframe first impression are quite good.

Maybe add a simple 10sma for direction bias so if 10sma red then sell only or if green then buy only then look at some daily charts of pairs that are trending quite strongly according to their 10 sma. Simple strategy here, pending orders under every red candle in a downtrend , pending order above every green candle in an uptrend?? how about close out all trades when 10sma changes colour again eg trend reverses??

Heres some examples of some strong trends that occurred from a steep sloping 10sma, nice aren't they?? Any doubts which way to trade?? Could a child do it???









Chose those charts from my top trending indicator which tells you the top 8 strongest trending pairs to trade...




Very simply following the current trend eg candle colour...Ask yourself a simple question, is the price going up or down right now?? Don't complicate it!!!

" if the tick box goes sideways its irrelevant you can't lose money if it just goes sideways." yes, that is true.

In a trend, e.g. up trend, one can buy at anywhere at anytime, and there is only one time that one will be caught by the market: longing at the top of the trend. because for each up trend, there is only one top.
On the other hand, if one try to catch the top and short it in an up trend, there is only one chance to be right: short at the top. But the one will be caught by the market and lose money for many many times before the top finally come.

When we have subjective desire in our mind, we can not see the fact, we only see what we desire, which is not true.
when the market goes against our desire, and our money being lost, then we are easy to be mad and easy to be driven out of control, then the market will take the control over us, and take all our money.

We all need time, to learn from our own practice to see what the market is expressing.