FF "Rags To Riches" Millionaires!

zax, I do not normally swear but BOLLOX, you have no idea.
I should put you on ignore for that stupid statement.
Price goes up be with it, price goes down be with it. PRICE ACTION.
I cannot believe I have wasted part of my life speaking to you, be good trade well

[quote=trader34;7802472]{quote} Agreed. Anything else is just conversation. All the indicators, all the Fibonnacci's only work when the conditions suit. The only way to be consistently profitable is to observe what is happening, and act accordingly. Reaction,

Hi trader34, I shall look at your vid,
I do know how the market works but it should be good viewing.
I have retired from trading now so I must of got it right.
What you posted I totally agree with, you explain it a lot better, be good, trade well

Never said price action does not work. I just said that is NOT ENOUGH (even with S/R addiction) to trade today's market in tf lower, or equal to 4h. Take whatever chart you want in 4h or lower and see how many times reversal patterns are not respected (like doji and others), see how many times S/R are passed before a new trend estabilish really ..and i can continue on on... see whatever chart you want...look and learn
By the way what upon indicators are built on, in your opinion? Maybe math, data, price action, etc?..so....
...and by the way if you think indis lags and PA not, well know that also price action lags! (of course some indis are craps, but this is another speech).

All above said, i am not like others in other threads that spit and insult who don't trade like him /don't like his way to trade (maybe cause i have not to sell anything to anyone? ) ...everyone is free to keep and defend his way to trade if it has shown profitable for him for enough time and fit his needs.
No offending tyrants here like in other threads... and no insulting barking dogs here.

Trader34, I think you are on a losing battle here, be good and trade well.

You actually confirmed my point in part of your post...
You are absolutely right....not just on lower TF's than H4...in fact if you take any doji/ key reversal/ exhaustion candle on any time frame...that signal alone is not (in my opinion) good enough to use as an entry. The whole term price action refers to the movement of the price in the bigger picture.

My decision whether to enter a trade will be based on many factors; how the price has behaved today- in other words this candle's position in relation to the daily movement so far, what the longer time frame movement looks like, any upcoming, or lingering news that may affect it etc etc.
Only when i can (as far as possible) rule out any concerns will i enter. In fact, personally I look for reasons not to enter, and if i am even slightly uneasy...i won't trade that signal.
That's my personal way, and i certainly am not suggesting anyone follow it. I am merely saying that your previous assertion that price action is not as important as indicators is at best incorrect!

Also, I'd like to address 2 other points you made; This 1st little snippet-
"..... see how many times S/R are passed before a new trend estabilish really"

Absolutely agree, S/R levels to me are not so useful. If you watch the video I posted it gives a pretty good example as to why. I personally never trade break outs for this reason and i am extremely cautious trading S/R bounces. See the shark analogy in my previous post! As i said, Deutsche doesn't care about S/R levels, at least in the way that we obey them. They are however great areas to be filled on large orders without too much slippage! If you're lucky, they fill using your PT. If unlucky, then it's your SL. It's all the same to them...so I will pass (mostly) on that.

Also, the word trend is one wildly thrown around at every retracement on the chart. What is a trend? When is it started? When is it reversed? If the hourly trend is up, but the daily is down, but the monthly is up....what is the trend you should follow? I challenge you (or anyone, i'm not picking on you here!) to identify a trend any other way than retrospectively. I tend not to use the word trend anymore as i think it's meaningless. But that's a whole other discussion!

The 2nd snippet you wrote-
"By the way what upon indicators are built on, in your opinion? Maybe math, data, price action, etc?..so....
...and by the way if you think indis lags and PA not, well know that also price action lags!"

The price action is real time. It doesn't repaint, it is a visual representation of the current activity in the Foreign exchange market.
I'd love to hear how price action lags...please enlighten me!

On Indi's...I'm aware of how they are calculated, sure...and that's why i think using them blindly is not effective.
You mentioned fibo, CCI, Stoch, ADX etc..
Ok FIbo trading is one written about a lot. It's followers have a semi religious adherence to it...but at it's core, if fibo was truly effective, it would mean that the market is NOT RANDOM....and all you need to do is to trade fibo levels and you will be profitable.
I'm yet to see this. Once they start adding in filters and discretionary elements, harmonics, wave analysis...basically they are back to discretionary trading...and that fibo level is merely a reference point...one which could be placed anywhere on the chart and probably used as effectively.
Another inherent weakness of fibo levels is that many don't agree on where to draw them correctly. This, combined with small differences between brokers prices mean that alone, they cannot be used to trade effectively.

CCI/Stoch/ MA's etc...they are calculated on previous price action, sure. But how does this affect what is going to happen?! It has no bearing, or at least not enough to use effectively, long term.
You can play with the settings of any indicator and curve fit it to give signals in the current condition. But the market is always changing. The indi will stop fitting the curve, and when it does, if you are following each signal, you will lose significantly. Most Indi's work really well when the market is directional...but that is not the case most of the time. Most of the time the market is trading in a fairly narrow range, depending on what TF you watch. When it moves, great...but when it ranges, that indicator will keep giving false signals. The problem is you can also only identify a range retrospectively....so you will find it very hard to filter out the bad periods.

At the heart of this debate, there are 2 points really...
1st, the big banks do not use indicators to give them signals. The bulk of the bank's participation in the market is to make the market, getting filled on institutional orders as they come in. The approx 20% of the time they are prop trading, they are dealing with accounts far larger than ours, so they are not entering the market on MA crosses or the like, nor using 10 pip SL. It is a fact that the average retail trader using MT4 has far more tools and toys at their disposal than bank traders. But who is more profitable?

2nd point...there are many good coders out there... If there was any indicator, or combination of indicators that gave consistently profitable signals, it would have been coded into an EA. We could all just set and forget, come back in a few months and see our account in huge profit.
There are many EA's out there...many are sold each week. Somehow there are not an equal number of profitable traders. Strange?

Look, after all this I am not telling anyone how to trade. It is a personal choice. I'm also not saying that all indi's are totally useless. There are ways you can use them as references as part of a strategy. Personally i find that they don't increase my chances at all, so i don't use them.
Iv'e been trading for a fair few years now, initially poorly! My transition from losing to profitability came when i realised, that nothing mattered except what was happening now. No indicator would give me the entry, nor can they tell me when to get out as well as the chart movement itself. The indicators were always either too early or too late to the party!
That's my way. I'm always open to learning of course, but as far as indicators go for me, there is nothing new...only revamped or hybridized versions of the same, flawed things.

No offence nor insult was intended, so I hope none was taken.
All the best in the markets

Ahh....thanks! This made me smile!
I miss that word living out here! I tried saying it a few times when I got here, but i just got confused looks!

P.S saw that you had a good fishing trip from the other thread . I actually got dragged fishing too...caught 3 species of baby sharks! No girls though

Cheers! All the best.

I too respect your vision...my path has proceeded exactly the contrary...from just following price action and trendline/channels to follow some systems based on a robust use of some set of indis, that, if cannot catch all the moves (like anything..not at the beginning anyway) and are not exsent by failing signals sometimes, they are profitable.
Also i make you notice that price action ACTUALLY lags, cause it is always a rapresentation of what already took place (for not talking about broker data feed lagging and manipulation of the price) and that you objection about EA based on indicators can be extended also to price action: why there are not mass successfull EA's based on the most recognized price action patterns ( like head & shoulders, flags, etc...) ??? If price action is so right all time we could do EA for those things too
So, really, the term "price action" is a very "elusive" concept where patterns, S/R, market sentiment, volume, and many other components of the beast we call "market", join together. In ultimate analysys,therefore,price action is really important, but saying that a candlestick pattern (commonly JUST this idea is used to explain the concept "how price action works" or even "how the market moves" by some "gurus" to SELL their stuff), is pure utopia....like watching JUST a Stochastic (whatever settings) escaping the overbought area and pointing down don't tell us too much about a sure "sell" forming
So what is my point in the end? If i have to choose in reading a naked chart or reading a chart with some indis (chosen with a criteria, not random of course) i choose the second option: candlesticks, bars, point&figure or whatever rapresentation of the price you use are the basics nowdays of EVERY trading platform around, WHILE some indicators are really customized to show particular precise things. If you wanna bypass what indis tell to you you can do it even having those plotted on your chart, but the contrary, not possible, cause the calculation indis do is really "modern trading", using the power of the machine to support our brain/eyes.
Anyway, though probably me and you will keep our own ideas, i am glad i can have a contraddictory with an open minded person here about this theme... .... while in other threads, i found just old tyrants that wanna show his old muscles, putting on the ignore list whoever shows different thinking (and also having pulled the FIRST stone in this battle,against good people that has not provoked those in any way and having just the "fault" of thinking differently by this poor minded tyrants).

Hello,
You are right, there is of course a lag between the true inter bank Forex price, and the one we see at broker level...this is unavoidable as the broker is 3rd party to the transaction, but that "lag" is not the same as, for example a stoch showing price leaving overbought/ oversold zone. I use this example because some trade this signal standalone.
The lag here is in the fact that by definition, the indi will only recognise that the price has started to reverse too long after the fact. My point is, that in many cases, the price behavior itself will tell you this 2 or 3 candles before, and at a more favourable entry price than if you just wait for the indicator to tell you. And the indi is certainly no better at predicting whether the entry will be a good one. It simply spits out data according to its formula.

Yes, Indis have become more sophisticated, but have any shown excellent results standalone? Not consistently. I do agree with you, that they can be used to make a decision...in some way. However, they cannot be trusted to predict what will come.

Some people successfully use a mean reversion type system, where they will use a specific MA or similar. They record historically how far the price deviates as a maximum from that MA, and trade according to the principle that eventually the price will return to, or cross it.
It is a logical idea, and I can't say it's not viable. I know someone who is profitable using such an idea. I myself couldn't make it work for me. I sought help from the one who could, and his response was key to my point:
He said that he doesn't just enter a trade when the price has moved the pre determined distance away from his indi....he looks at the longer term charts for any major levels, looks for any fundamental reasons for the recent move, then looks for signs in the price that the movement is exhausting, or reversing. Only then does he decide to enter.
My question was, in that case, why not just look for reversals after a big move, and dispense with the indicator? How is it really helping him?
He said it really is just a visual aid. He can see the big move without it of course. His only real use for it was to start looking for exits when the price is approaching/crossing his indi.

So, I guess, if it helps you visualize something, then use it. But I stand by the point that relying on them without truly looking at the way the price is moving will not lead to success in trading. As i said in a previous post, there are too many variables to consider, to rely on any indicator.
News and general market manipulation will always throw the charts into chaos. If you can't see it happening, and just keep on keeping on, then you will be stung.

Also agree on your point, that price action is a complex term. Your analogy regarding an EA for PA is not correct though. I would hope that after Forex 101 we all realise that head and shoulders, double tops etc etc are all next to useless. I realise that doesn't stop coders making EA's from equally useless concepts, so it could well be that there is such an EA out there! And of course it is as useless as the rest!

Those types of patterns are not what i interpret PA to mean. My analysis of PA is more related to the way the chart moves. As you say, most people use candles/OHLC bars and such to show them what has happened to the price in a given time. Hour, day, week...whatever. This information needs to be viewed in the broader scope of longer frames, and all potentially relevant factors like news etc included. With all available information factored in, you can decide if there is a reasonable probability of a successful trade.

Look at GBPUSD H1 chart for the past 2weeks. Last Thursday, the FOMC news pushed the chart 130pips up, in a single hour. Then followed from Tokyo session it crept up again before retracing at the end of the week right back where it started. Knowing that the charts tend not to run directional for long periods without retracing...could you see any potential for entries on the 9th? I did.
The same story for this week...the 14th saw some poor data for GBP. Strong falling candles until NY session, when it calmed for a while. Tokyo didn't manage to push the price much lower on the 15th. Was it likely that there would be a retracement of some distance from the lows? Also, look at the position of those 2 big news candles in relation to the previous movements. Is it likely that there would be a good number of SL's and PT's at the upper and lower bounds of the previous movement? Excellent place for a big order to be filled is it not?
For the most part, it's not in everyone's interest for a protracted run on a currency. These huge red candles are not the result of us retailers. This is the result of institutional level interaction. Sometimes these moves come without any news behind them at all! We can't pretend to know their agenda or objective...but sooner or later, someone will start buying again. This is what i define as price action.

When i see this type of move, i look for a reversal signal. Not just a single candle, but the way each candle forms, before i think there is a reasonable probability for a move i can ride for a certain distance. Of course sometimes i lose. I try to pick my battles giving myself the highest probability for success according to my analysis.
I have played with various indicators, and none have been as useful to me as my eyes in picking trades like this.

It's always good to have constructive debate. I won't convince you to delete your indi folder on MT4, nor would i want to! Perhaps there is some alternate insight you can give me on how an indi can be useful. After all, we should come to forums like this to learn shouldn't we?!
We learn more from people who's ideas differ from our own, than those we agree with........ Except those dicks trying to sell their crap!

Happy trading!

I just re read this part and it is a good point. Having the indi there does give the option to use it, or not. No one is forcing us to obey it's signal, sure.

That choice is personal. My opinion is that the more things you have on your chart, the more likely you will see conflicting data. Picking and choosing which trades to enter is hard enough.
For me i don't want this clutter on my chart, when ultimately the decision to trade or not will be based on the price. The indis only cloud the issue, and cause doubt. Doubt is the soil that fear grows in

Well, I just would like to put a feedback of the video.

What is the point to show himself going with his super expansive car ??

To be honest, I just did look the graph and his explanations.

In my opinion, if you use price action, you don't need MA.
Also, The down trend line is not right...

The point is Bull vs Bear... That is why a channel give more informations than an only Trend line.

Keep things simple guys

AND PRICE ACTION IS ENOUGH as long as you know how to read a chart.

Good luck to all.

Yeah, he of course is promoting himself. He does offer services. I'm not interested in those things. Nor am I so interested in his, or anyone else's interpretation of the trend. Trend lines to me fall into the same category as indicators...basically useless.

All i like from that video is the simplified example of how institutional traders interact with the market.
I am by no means claiming it is a definitive guide, but it is worth seeing for those who wonder why fake outs and such happen at volatile times.

Count me in. i started with next to ZERO $$. Pip it UP!

Good luck on your journey guys.

Just know you can make it, and forget about what the others are saying

If you look at Gold for example, imagine you bet half your account on a 4 dollars loss, and double it for every 8 dollars (+spread) gain. Check the past few days/weeks now and you can see you can definitely make it within a month if you get that on a daily basis. i'll give it a try as well

I know the point is not going all in, but it shows going from rags to riches is possible, either on a slow way or fast one

Plenty of success!

Crickets..
was the account blown that quickly?

SORRY, WRONG TOPIC ;-)

Every loss is a lesson! What happened to Soros?

Heeeeeeeeeeeeeey guys im back, my journey is about to start!!!!! Few more days!

I have been trading on simulator for roughly over 200 hours non stop, my strategy works and i need more tests done to it, anybody interested in testing it and helping me out with statistics? In return youl have a profitable system, its a 15min system, rr is 1:1, ive tested it on eur/usd and usdjpy, it will only work with low spread pairs and thats the majors!

any more details?

good luck http://www.easyfreesmileys.com/smile...mileys-327.gif

Hey, glad to see you back!
Actually no time to trade neither bigger tf like 1h / 4h (or almost), due to my day job schedule, but.. best wishes for the developments