Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

I trade every timeframe between 1Min and 1Month. Each is an indicator of the same one thing, price movement. That's 9 indicators of the same thing. When they all agree, I take the trade. For instance, at this very moment, every timeframe in GU is trending down, so I'm short GU.

The market is straightening out today, finally. If we can just make it through this one day without starting any new wars or catching Ebola, I think we'll be OK.

Hi G,

Do not know if you you know about the threads from ForexAlien and Nihilist, but Nihilist has a Dashboard/Heat Map based on ForexAlien's work that utilizes ADX as the basis showing 5 powers across all the TFs that you follow. An easy way to get a MTF MCP overview of strength and trend for up to 24 pairs utilizing ADX. Very pretty as well.

ForexAlien - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=463573

Nihilist - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=490220



AG

Thanks! I'll look into it.

lol I just went short GU this morning as well. Well established down trend on Daily with stochs now pointing down in the oversold area (ie below bottom line). H2 shows the same and 15m shows the same so I entered short. Should wait for 15m to bounce back up and then enter short but thought price may get away from me so entered anyhow. Should be in profit by end of day.

Went Long USDCAD as well.

Will watch both throughout the day and add double positions once these initial "feels" get around +30 in profit.

Instead of taking a peek every now and then I decided to simply add Entry orders at my +30p location instead. That way if I am doing something and sudden wave begins in price action it will bring me into the market along with it rather then for me to play catch up.

btw UC is already at +20p

2nd position for UC triggered just 2.5hrs later!

A 3rd trade added as another Entry order for UC at +30 (or +60 on the original trade).

When the 3rd trade triggers I may close the 1st and take some profit or wait for a big candle on the H2

Few hours later 3rd trade triggered. Now I am watching for when to close the 1st position.

after confirming that maybe 7/9 indicators shows the same thing, which TF u look into for a clean entry?

I'd want at least 8 of 9 timeframes trending in the same direction and even better is all 9 trending in the same direction. At that point I'd be looking at short timeframes as I make my entry, like 1M 5M and 15M, just to make sure price hasn't just started moving against me as I'm entering. If it has, I'll wait until that retracement has ended before entering. If price is moving in my direction on short TF's, I'll go ahead and enter since it is already trending in my direction on the longer TF's and they don't change fast. My point is, price is only one thing. It can't really be trending up on the H1 and down on the M15. If it looks like that, then what you really have is an uptrend on H1 that is having a retracement on the M15. It's possible that the small H1 retracement seen clearly on the M15 could go so deep as to reverse the H1 trend to downtrend. In any case, price is one thing doing the same thing on every chart. It's just shown in different degrees of granularity on the different charts, so something that wouldn't even show up on an up-trending weekly chart could be a small retracement on the H4 and a deep reversal on the M15. All three of those charts are telling you something different about the same thing, price, but in that case you can bring them all together to form a coherent story. If I can't form a consistent story across all timeframes that makes sense to me, I just can't trade the pair.

Jesus, Graviton, at 3-5% a week, if you just take your 1% and let the rest build up your equity, in a short 5 years you will have tens of millions of dollars... or more ($280M!), depending on what you're putting to work right now.. hell in 2 short years you'd probably leave retail forex and trade futures instead for more security (MF GLobal aside)...

Bad Bad reversals everywhere last night during US session me thinks. UC and GU both down to -100p each. Seems to be holding so my 2 candle low on Daily as the stop is still a long way off. Watching them all now in as they should bounce back. New tonight so hopefully USD will good news

I doubt there are very many peeps on this or any other forum who would be financially blessed enough to even begin emplying that type of model, but I'm sure there are a few thread viewers who are intrigued to see it being executed in all it's glory?

An interesting development from he thread starter would be to show followers what it physically looks like on his blotter each time he's legging into some of these trades.
Perhaps the next series of trade positions could be highlighted via broker ticket screen captures from inception to completion along with the chart explanations & commentary.

Obviously for privacy purposes he can block out his name and account number, but the rest of the info could be displayed as an accompaniment to the charts & commentary.

Let's not be greedy now. There will be setbacks. I'll discuss some in a post below

G

Yes, reversals out the wazu. It seems we caught another case of Ebola as well as had some bad economic news. Those things happen, but the question is how to deal with it and not get knocked off the rails. There are two sorts of bad situations that can occur. One is just a random loss every now and then. We don't worry over those. They can't be prevented. We just cut them short and keep on trading. The other situation is a pattern of major reversals that sweeps through the markets like we had these past two weeks. That can be devastating with one loss after another piling up. If the pattern is not recognized early and appropriate changes made the losses can wipe out months of gains in a very short time. Let's take a short aside to discuss this situation for a bit.

Initially, the only way we can tell the difference between a temporary retracement and a major reversal is by observation of fundamental factors and market dynamics. Markets normally breathe in and out as price follows the trend. It's normal to have some small retracements on any timeframe chart as the market tracks the trend upwards (or downwards for a short trade). In the early stages of a small retracement, volumes will still be fairly normal. There will be no obvious fundamental news driving the pull back in price, so there is no reason to panic and most traders will take little notice of it. In the beginning of a major reversal, volume will be double or more from what it was in the previous small retracement candles and there will be Headline News driving the reversal. There will be fundamental shifts in the markets and there will be a sense of panic and fear in the air.

If you have to dig deeply to find out why price is moving against your position, it's probably just a retracement, since most people don't have the time or ability to dig that deeply. A reversal will almost always be accompanied by Headline News. You can easily see the current reason for the reversal by watching any news outlet for just a few minutes. This week, it's Ebola, possible recession in Europe, war on ISIS in the middle east, and poor US economic data. Those headlines are the only news that most people have time to watch and it's only the Headline News that starts a panic reversal.

Reversals must occur. Otherwise price would go to infinity or to zero. The problem is reversals usually occur after a trend trader has been riding a trend for a very long time and price has gone through very many small retracements. After a while, the trend trader just starts to ignore small retracements, and when a small retracement turns into a major reversal, they are often slow to acknowledge that things have changed. This can result in a large loss of all the profits made during the trend and even more. We want to avoid any big loss in the market, and one major way that trend traders take big losses is refusing to acknowledge a reversal has occurred. Let's try to avoid big losses on major reversals with a more careful analysis of retracements than most traders would make. Remember that most traders, perhaps 90% of traders, must lose money in the markets so a very few can make a nice profit. To profit over the long haul, we must do something different than what most traders do.

So, we've have been trading a good trend for a long time, taking nice profits along the way and a retracement begins taking back some of our profits, what should we do? First of all, DON'T PANIC. Most traders will panic and either freeze while watching all their profits evaporate, or bail out at the worst possible moment. To profit, we must do something different from what most traders do. We wont lose all our profits from a good trend in a just few hours. We have plenty of time to analyze this situation and make a good rational decision, but we must put our trader hat on and do the solid work required. Let's walk through this analysis step by step.

Hi Graviton

I'm sooo looking forward for continuation.
Regards

Once again, our goal is to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a major reversal and losing back most or all of our profits. Before stops start tripping, let's ask ourselves, is there any fundamental Headline News driving this retracement? If the answer is no, there is no red flag or Headline News to account for this retracement, we hold fast, depending on our stops to protect us from major losses. If we hit a stop, fine. That one stop wont matter over the long haul.

Two things we will NEVER do is move the stop against the direction of the trade, or add to a bad trade by re-entering too quickly after a stop out. If there is no good fundamental reason for the retracement, we will take the stop if we have to, and then we will quit trading until we figure out what went wrong. That might take hours or days, so we wont be in any hurry to re-enter.

That cuts our loss short. It might be disappointing, but better to stop out on one trade than to suffer repeated stop outs or move stops and take a huge loss. We never take a large loss because of anything the market does. We only take a large loss because we choose to do so by either moving the stop against the direction of the trade or by re-entering a stopped out trade over and over taking loss after loss. If we simply let the market tell us what to do, we will never take a large loss.

If you get nothing else out of this, remember this: Anytime you take a large loss, it's because you choose to do so. If you simply choose to cut your losses short and never take another large loss, you will never take another large loss. This is your choice. Choose wisely.

Now if there is fundamental Headline News that accounts for the reversal, that is a different situation. Traders will panic. It only takes a minute to check the calendar to see if something important was missed. Usually any bad economic news will be on the headlines of all the business news channels just as you see price move against you. If all the business news channels are screaming, OMG this is horrible!, it may or may not be. We need to ask ourselves, does this piece of news represent a fundamental shift in the markets, one that will last for weeks or months or years, or is it temporary? If it's something fundamental like a change in central bank policy, the answer might be yes, it's a major fundamental shift in the markets. We can then exit all to get out of the panic and wait for calmer markets. If stops have been placed carefully, we will either take a small loss or a small gain on the exit, but either is of no great consequence over the long haul.

If the bad news is just temporary, like a bad economic report that will likely be reversed when the next report comes out, we can choose to just ride it out. Neither of those choices will have a great effect on your long term trading as long as we don't make one of the two major mistakes named above, either moving stops against the direction of the trade or re-entering a losing trade over and over. Once again, making either of those major mistakes is the same as choosing to take a large loss. You wont take a large loss every time you choose to make this trading error, but you will suffer large losses often enough to ultimately wipe out your trading account.

Anyway, that's the way I look at handling retracements and major reversals. Questions? Comments?

OUTSTANDING G.!! Do I understand that you are basically trading inside the current week and not holding positions for the long term? What if you have a great position well placed on a Weekly wick, will you try to hold at least that one going into Retracement or Reversal?

AG