Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 241 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #4,801
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:25pm Oct 13, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Alfonso has no control over what happens @ FF after something's been posted even on his own thread. If you need to remove/modify a post you made it must be done within the first 24 hours or it's too late. Contact Twee if you want to complain.
Thanks, understood the 24 hrs rule....
I thought also understood the "Cleanup" menu...
But do not bother any more, suggest to forget it.
Tnx anyways.
  • #4,802
  • Oct 14, 2014 5:28am Oct 14, 2014 5:28am
ANaylsis on AudJPY
monthly up
weekly broke ascending TL, price arrived and rejected W1 DZ.
Daily, down trend. I went done to H4, waited TL break. created a DZ. confirmation entry confirmed for a buy limit on the DZ
Attached Image
  • #4,803
  • Oct 14, 2014 5:45am Oct 14, 2014 5:45am
Hi Lionfx

I'm still learning the rules as well and cant wait for a seminar on friday, 17 Oct 2014, focusing on daily trading. I do day trading and use 1hour/4 hour/daily chart combo. Now the daily chart is down and should we not be looking at short opportunities on 4 hour and 1 hour TF? Persornaly, would do this trade if I could find a nested zone within 4 hour and/or 1 hour.

Abie
  • #4,804
  • Oct 14, 2014 6:33am Oct 14, 2014 6:33am
hi Alfonso
hello to all
I would like to ask a question
pattern RBR or DBD is used to determine the trend?
I mean if the pattern RBR breaks can we talk about a trend change?
or to determine the trend is only pattern RBD or DBR?
(I do not use trendlines)
ty
  • #4,805
  • Oct 14, 2014 6:41am Oct 14, 2014 6:41am
Quoting Abzozo1
Hi Lionfx I'm still learning the rules as well and cant wait for a seminar on friday, 17 Oct 2014, focusing on daily trading. I do day trading and use 1hour/4 hour/daily chart combo. Now the daily chart is down and should we not be looking at short opportunities on 4 hour and 1 hour TF? Persornaly, would do this trade if I could find a nested zone within 4 hour and/or 1 hour. Abie

Hi there, yes but I follow HTF trend which is up.
furthermore price rejected a Weekly DZ.
not sure if I am right in my analysis
  • #4,806
  • Oct 14, 2014 7:00am Oct 14, 2014 7:00am
Quoting lionfx
{quote} Hi there, yes but I follow HTF trend which is up. furthermore price rejected a Weekly DZ. not sure if I am right in my analysis
Hi LionFx

I understand you clearly,its just that I keep hearing Alfonso, in his webinars, say we must choose the type of trader we want to be, such that, if you are a swing/position trader, he recommends we use monthly/weekly/daily combo and if day trader, we can use daily/4 hours/1 hour combo, where we start with the high TF for analysis and drill it down until we the lower tF that is out of sysnc with higher timeframe and look for trade opportunites.

Lets wait for him/other experienced trader to comment, I'm trying hard myself to learn the rules and practice them as per Post 1.

Cheers

Abie
  • #4,807
  • Oct 14, 2014 7:15am Oct 14, 2014 7:15am
Quoting fakeyou
hi Alfonso hello to all I would like to ask a question pattern RBR or DBD is used to determine the trend? I mean if the pattern RBR breaks can we talk about a trend change? or to determine the trend is only pattern RBD or DBR? (I do not use trendlines) ty
All that is explained in post #1 and numerous videos my friend. Take the time to watch them and you will have your doubt answer. The break of a zone does not mean a change of the trend, just consolidation, there are rules for that in post #1

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,808
  • Oct 14, 2014 7:17am Oct 14, 2014 7:17am
Quoting lionfx
ANaylsis on AudJPY monthly up weekly broke ascending TL, price arrived and rejected W1 DZ. Daily, down trend. I went done to H4, waited TL break. created a DZ. confirmation entry confirmed for a buy limit on the DZ {image}
AUDJPY rejected an important supply zone on bigger timeframes, D1 uptrend broken, WK DZ removed, no longs on set and forget. I took a short at the top with the D1 TL break which I've already closed for some nice profit but it kept on dropping. Make a top down analysis on MN/WK/D1 charts and posts the charts so we can discuss it ok?

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,809
  • Oct 14, 2014 7:48am Oct 14, 2014 7:48am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} All that is explained in post #1 and numerous videos my friend. Take the time to watch them and you will have your doubt answer. The break of a zone does not mean a change of the trend, just consolidation, there are rules for that in post #1 Alfonso
I'm sorry but English is not my native language
1 post is too big and I'm afraid of not properly understand some things
I'm trading in a similar style but higher timeframe trend confuses me
I understand that a new low on the trading timeframe does not mean a change in trend. it can only lower the price in the area of demand for higher timeframe
I just can not understand what will be a key area for the current trend
and the breakdown of which would indicate a change of trend
you write in 1 post
A CP (continuation pattern) will NOT be taken into account to draw a trendline
means that this pattern will not be a key in determining the trend?
thanks for your answers
  • #4,810
  • Oct 14, 2014 7:51am Oct 14, 2014 7:51am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} AUDJPY rejected an important supply zone on bigger timeframes, D1 uptrend broken, WK DZ removed, no longs on set and forget. I took a short at the top with the D1 TL break which I've already closed for some nice profit but it kept on dropping. Make a top down analysis on MN/WK/D1 charts and posts the charts so we can discuss it ok? Alfonso
Hi ALfonso, attached M/W/D chart for discussion.

on the weekly m there seems to be another DZ which I have drawn. which price currently is rejecting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ 14 Oct.PNG Size: 62 KB
  • #4,811
  • Oct 14, 2014 8:47am Oct 14, 2014 8:47am
My 2cents. I'm looking for price to touch 90.60 to look for longs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy monthly.jpg Size: 115 KB
  • #4,812
  • Oct 14, 2014 2:09pm Oct 14, 2014 2:09pm
Quoting mandla
My 2cents. I'm looking for price to touch 90.60 to look for longs.{image}
Makes sense. There are and have been tradable shorts on the way down from that MN reaction. Got any? The MN demand zone has not removed any supply zone but there is a confluence with the ascending MN TL which could help the longs and become profit areas. By the way, I like the clarity of your chart and the zones, congratulations!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,813
  • Oct 14, 2014 2:10pm Oct 14, 2014 2:10pm
Quoting lionfx
{quote} Hi ALfonso, attached M/W/D chart for discussion. on the weekly m there seems to be another DZ which I have drawn. which price currently is rejecting. {image}
Remember where you are in the curve and the top down analysis. MN is up, WK and D1 are not with you. What would you do according to the rules?
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,814
  • Oct 14, 2014 5:12pm Oct 14, 2014 5:12pm
Hi Alfonso,

I think I have most of the core concepts down, but there are a few nuances that I'm unsure of. One of those deals with bases. You may have addressed this issue before. If you have, I apologize. So, my question is, what are good and bad bases suppose to look like exactly? I saw you mention in one of your videos that you didn't like when bases looked like flag formations. I also know you don't like when they are too wicky. So, I know what you look for in a good level, such as strength of departure, time at level, etc., but I am a little confused about different candlestick pattern sequence formations, and which ones are good and bad for bases? So basically, when you said you don't like when a base looks like a flag formation, are there other formations or sequences of candles that you don't like as well? Thanks for the help.
  • #4,815
  • Oct 14, 2014 8:46pm Oct 14, 2014 8:46pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Remember where you are in the curve and the top down analysis. MN is up, WK and D1 are not with you. What would you do according to the rules? Alfonso
according to rules, wait for the time frames to be aligned.

but I am quite low in the curve actually, just that the weekly and daily are not in sync with the monthly. am I right?

you mentioned you have shorted this on the daily at the Trendline break, is your entry at the sept 11 candle( inverted Pin bar) ?
thank you
  • #4,816
  • Oct 14, 2014 11:51pm Oct 14, 2014 11:51pm
Quoting Worthy
Hi Alfonso, I think I have most of the core concepts down, but there are a few nuances that I'm unsure of. One of those deals with bases. You may have addressed this issue before. If you have, I apologize. So, my question is, what are good and bad bases suppose to look like exactly? I saw you mention in one of your videos that you didn't like when bases looked like flag formations. I also know you don't like when they are too wicky. So, I know what you look for in a good level, such as strength of departure, time at level, etc., but I am a little...
There are many nuances yes, they are based on experience and tests performed for months. Reading candlestick patterns can be tricky but who said psychology is not? It's all about emotions, and emotions are varied, candlesticks are just that. Bad bases as those you mentioned are not good, moreover when price is over-extended and has been rallying/dropping for some time, it all makes sense when you apply some "common sense to it".

If you have price creating several CP (continuation patterns) all the way up in an uptrend and you see wicky bases and price slowing down and losing steam, what do you think it's most likely to happen? Apply common sense and you will have then a rule not to trade in that direction, wait for price to make a bigger retracement into a higher TF or even short counter-trend if price justs hit a fresh MN/WK SZ, don't you think? It's all about reading emotions and mechanically drawing zone interpreting what each zone has accomplished, which is more important than the zone itself most of the time.

Take a look at 2 examples below, hope it makes sense.

There are many nuances? Yes, there are. But you are not trying to follow ema crosses or macd divergences, you are reading emotions from the candles and indentifing the footprints of dinosaurs (institutions), it's worth the sacrifice, isn't it?

Have a great day!
Alfonso

Attached Image


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 86 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,817
  • Oct 15, 2014 12:14am Oct 15, 2014 12:14am
Quoting lionfx
{quote} according to rules, wait for the time frames to be aligned. but I am quite low in the curve actually, just that the weekly and daily are not in sync with the monthly. am I right? you mentioned you have shorted this on the daily at the Trendline break, is your entry at the sept 11 candle( inverted Pin bar) ? thank you
Price has dropped quite a bit, Yen is getting stronger and Nikkei weak, aussie is also weak. So shorting has better odds.

My short was on the D1 chart (see attachment), there was a second opportunity to ride that short. I'm only trading the D1 imbalances, I believe there have been H4 shorts on the way down.

Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 191 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,818
  • Oct 15, 2014 12:21am Oct 15, 2014 12:21am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} There are many nuances yes, they are based on experience and tests performed for months. Reading candlestick patterns can be tricky but who said psychology is not? It's all about emotions, and emotions are varied, candlesticks are just that. Bad bases as those you mentioned are not good, moreover when price is over-extended and has been rallying/dropping for some time, it all makes sense when you apply some "common sense to it". If you have price creating several CP (continuation patterns) all the way up in an uptrend and you see wicky...
Hi Alfonso,

Thank you for the reply so soon. Your answer makes a lot of sense. Thanks for clearing that up for me. I think a lot of times, I over analyze things and suffer from analysis paralysis. I've been trying to learn and apply this method for a several months now. I've watched nearly all of the videos you have on youtube, most of them several times. I've also been using forex tester 2 for awhile. I think it's going to just take some time and more practice to get everything working like it should. I've been considering joining your site. I like the idea that everything is structured on there as well as some topics like the sequence and realignment, which aren't on here directly. Anyways, thanks a lot for answering my question. Have a good day.
  • #4,819
  • Oct 15, 2014 12:43pm Oct 15, 2014 12:43pm
Hi Alfonso!!! few weeks I testing SD zone in Forex Tester2, but one thing I don't understand- what about news in history ??? in real time we don't trade before big news, but in history we don't take into consideration news????
  • #4,820
  • Oct 15, 2014 4:43pm Oct 15, 2014 4:43pm
Quoting Cepbra
Hi Alfonso!!! few weeks I testing SD zone in Forex Tester2, but one thing I don't understand- what about news in history ??? in real time we don't trade before big news, but in history we don't take into consideration news????
When trading lower timeframes news is important, when trading Daily imbalances we don't take them into account. The lower the timeframe the easier they can be removed unless they are nested within bigger timeframes. News volatitily can remove levels easily, it's better to lean on bigger timeframe for that. Since I am not trading only D1 imbalances, I just don't care about news. Whatever happens happens!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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