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  • #5,321
  • Oct 11, 2014 12:35am Oct 11, 2014 12:35am
http://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/4023...h-price-of-oil

sure, why not? also, if they can run it down below $75 and keep it there, the oil sands extractors and frackers and very deep drillers start to feel the pinch; some go under or cut back production from those sources; then. as demand comes back up, the easy money oil cleans up on the short supply......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,322
  • Oct 11, 2014 7:12pm Oct 11, 2014 7:12pm
top dog INTC ER's 10/14. Most chip makers were down big Friday on a scare from MCHP...INTC may have shot its wad on the downside

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12910...cm_ven=RSSFeed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-10-11_INTC.png Size: 107 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,323
  • Oct 11, 2014 7:55pm Oct 11, 2014 7:55pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/4023...h-price-of-oil sure, why not? also, if they can run it down below $75 and keep it there, the oil sands extractors and frackers and very deep drillers start to feel the pinch; some go under or cut back production from those sources; then. as demand comes back up, the easy money oil cleans up on the short supply......
or....

http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/why-...d-saudi-arabia
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,324
  • Oct 11, 2014 11:28pm Oct 11, 2014 11:28pm
new poll results from Brasil - Neves pulls ahead!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...#disqus_thread
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,325
  • Oct 11, 2014 11:38pm Oct 11, 2014 11:38pm
Quoting The Fool
new poll results from Brasil - Neves pulls ahead! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...#disqus_thread
watch for PBR & EWZ bounce on Monday, buy back month calls early, sell front month calls into strength (knock on wood)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,326
  • Oct 11, 2014 11:41pm Oct 11, 2014 11:41pm
Most of the pre-election polls (b4 the general elections) were wrong about the presidential race results...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,327
  • Oct 12, 2014 12:24am Oct 12, 2014 12:24am
Earnings Season. 10/14 - C, JPM, & WFC + INTC & KMP; 10/15 - BAC, EBAY, GS, LVS, NFLX; 10/16 - AMD, GOOGL, SNDK, SLB, XLNX; 10/17 - MS bmo

10/20 - AAPL; 10/21 - YHOO; 10/23 - AMZN, CAT, MSFT
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,328
  • Edited 12:48am Oct 12, 2014 12:33am | Edited 12:48am
100% I.V. rank not hard to find. MS ER hits bmo on Oct expiration day: look for a 10/18 $30/$35 long strangle....
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-10-11_MS.png Size: 141 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,329
  • Oct 12, 2014 1:14am Oct 12, 2014 1:14am
ToS gots a lot for the options trader, you can plot any option over time with its volume, iv, open interest, greeks, etc etc....the MS 10/18 $33 call below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-10-11_msgamma.png Size: 73 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,330
  • Oct 12, 2014 1:57am Oct 12, 2014 1:57am
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-f...211120063.html

they won't raise the funds rate when there's actual deflation in the Eurozone and the threat of that disease catching on here in the USA. This fact is going to sink in and will mitigate the anti-climax of the taper's end. Earnings will be strong, for the most part. Ebola crisis will be a memory in a month or so. I won't be surprised to see the S&P trading north of 2,000 again in December.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,331
  • Oct 12, 2014 6:19am Oct 12, 2014 6:19am
Quoting The Fool
Ebola crisis will be a memory in a month or so.
uh-oh.
http://news.yahoo.com/texas-health-c...100052941.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,332
  • Oct 12, 2014 11:46am Oct 12, 2014 11:46am
Quoting The Fool
100% I.V. rank not hard to find. MS ER hits bmo on Oct expiration day: look for a 10/18 $30/$35 long strangle.... {image}
What is that blue line on your chart? What does it measure?

Thank you!
Love the game, love the markets!
  • #5,333
  • Oct 12, 2014 1:34pm Oct 12, 2014 1:34pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} watch for PBR & EWZ bounce on Monday, buy back month calls early, sell front month calls into strength (knock on wood)
And there you go - a calendar for credit... or a diagonal - just saw your ideas above and like them.

About INTC - we have AMD just 2 days after, like the last time when we did profitable strangles on it on yours idea.

Quotation:
Microchip Technology added that it believes "another industry correction has begun and that this correction will be seen more broadly across the industry in the near future."

So, if INTC goes down also... we could just buy puts for AMD.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,334
  • Oct 12, 2014 2:01pm Oct 12, 2014 2:01pm
Quoting StrayDog
So, if INTC goes down also... we could just buy puts for AMD.
that's a capital idea, SDog. I might be doing some plays on the ER names, but I have a lot of margin tied up in these EWZ spreads, so I will be limited until I can get out of some of them....high hopes....

Football day here in Americay, the mighty Seahawks are up in an hour or so. We are grilling, drinking wine. Like a true junkie I pop in to check what the traders are saying. October's gonna be a stellar month. Hope you had a good weekend, bud.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,335
  • Oct 12, 2014 2:18pm Oct 12, 2014 2:18pm
Quoting StrayDog
So, if INTC goes down also... we could just buy puts for AMD.
Didn't traded AMD since those strangles... just saw that it trades under $3... and took a nosedive on Friday.

Quoting The Fool
{quote} that's a capital idea, SDog. I might be doing some plays on the ER names, but I have a lot of margin tied up in these EWZ spreads, so I will be limited until I can get out of some of them....high hopes.... Football day here in Americay, the mighty Seahawks are up in an hour or so. We are grilling, drinking wine. Like a true junkie I pop in to check what the traders are saying. October's gonna be a stellar month. Hope you had a good weekend, bud.
Does E*trade calculates margin differently than IB? I didn't noticed margin req for calendars on IB...

Weather was just fantastic today, so I was in the Zoo with my wife and daughter. I see you have been busy on the thread like allways, good stuff.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,336
  • Oct 12, 2014 2:27pm Oct 12, 2014 2:27pm
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-29590608

looking more and more like Dilma is done. Bovespa and EWZ, PBR should gap up on Monday

bbl
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,337
  • Oct 12, 2014 3:09pm Oct 12, 2014 3:09pm
After a bearish last week I'm expecting a short term rally back up to 1950/60ish on the S/P before we see a continuation of this bear that in my view may last a year or two, certainly to test 2008.9 levels. As more and more of the Fed easing is cut the greater the acceleration of this bear. To many it may not make sense until its over because of the bullish economc data that will continue coming out of the US but its the step back to real normality
  • #5,338
  • Oct 12, 2014 4:48pm Oct 12, 2014 4:48pm


http://news.yahoo.com/patient-isolat...200117720.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,339
  • Oct 12, 2014 9:24pm Oct 12, 2014 9:24pm
Quoting StrayDog
Does E*trade calculates margin differently than IB? I didn't noticed margin req for calendars on IB....
SDog, follow the link below to find the CBOE Margin Manual (pdf file) etc - as best I know margin calculations for equity options still follow the CBOE manual, even though it is 15 years old... (Note, portfolio margin is a different story but you have to have I think about $125k in the account to qualify for it).

http://www.cboe.com/tradtool/MarginReq.aspx

Also, the link below is a decent guide to calendar spreads.

http://www.optionsplaybook.com/optio...r-call-spread/

(note that the TradeKing page describes a one-month calendar)...(All the calendars I have done on EWZ are Nov/Jan - 2 month calendars.)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,340
  • Edited 10:18pm Oct 12, 2014 10:06pm | Edited 10:18pm
Here's another article on calendars. To answer your question, the margin requirement is just the debit paid for the initiation of the spread.

http://www.valueline.com/Tools/Educa...x#.VDs7fWPu3X4

so, I have $48, $49, $50, and $53 Nov/Jan calendars on EWZ, which has been trading $42-$48 since mid-Sept. I paid around $0.15 +/- $0.05 for them. Ideally, EWZ price would move to my strike price but not go past it and then expire worthless at Nov expiry. If that happens on the $48, for instance, I would retain the Jan $48 long calls at near atm $value with 2 months dte (ie, 60 dte) and my price for those would be the original ~$0.15 debit required to establish the $48 calendar spreads.

Holy Smokes that would be sweet because the $48 long calls near atm with 60 dte would be worth about .... $3.50....uh...$2.50?....hmm, well I don't know what they will be worth, because I don't know what the i.v. of the option would be then. But they will be worth more than their value when they were bought, and worth considerably more than the small debit I paid for them.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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