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Secret footprint in the markets

  • #21
  • Oct 10, 2014 2:24am Oct 10, 2014 2:24am
Secret footprint in the markets ?


Yes, it looks like there may be such a thing...

Had to find a name for it.. Order flow seems to fit.

Attached Image
  • #22
  • Oct 10, 2014 4:15am Oct 10, 2014 4:15am
Thanks Doh, Hiddengap, Chicky amd Mingary I will look more closely at your posts this weekend.

I am thinking more along the lines of hidden footprints. Lengths of bars, reaction to news, spikes etc, and their location is well covered elsewhere. I think of them as actual signposts.

This is a thought experiment at the moment that I hope may reveal something.

I know there is nothing new under the sun. But I wonder if there are clues left behind by the market BEFORE the move happens. I don't want to look at the vertical move as it happens that is driven by "forced" activity. (Sellers selling at lower prices just to get out or vice versa)
  • #23
  • Edited 4:35am Oct 10, 2014 4:22am | Edited 4:35am
These hidden footprints as you call them are easy to spot if you know what to look for, you are right in saying there are clues left behind by the market before a move happens, the clues are left during previous moves and are found looking by at the price action directly to the left of the current price, I can often say with confidence an exact price a pair will drop to then bounce away from, temporary or not, and often it is at the very start of a move, by saying that I mean I can't tell you where the market will go right this second, but what I can do is say what will most likely happen when and if the market reaches a certain area or certain price, in these areas or at these prices are where I trade from. Simples.
  • #24
  • Oct 10, 2014 4:41am Oct 10, 2014 4:41am
Quoting roger44
{quote} Let us write some sentences from the image's words from POST #1!
"what money fuel top student bikini bomb" ?
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #25
  • Oct 10, 2014 5:12am Oct 10, 2014 5:12am
What would a chart look like where a dominant real money flow was quietly chipping away (say selling) with multiple smaller traders of the other side of their trade.
This large real money account has a much longer timeframe than the traders on the other side of the trade. I think when they all exit they create the directional bars that most of this site then reacts to. I want to think about what what's going on inside the market before the move happens.
  • #26
  • Oct 10, 2014 5:16am Oct 10, 2014 5:16am
Quoting Hyperion
Maybe there is hidden information stored in certain bars that broadcast it's direction. I wonder if there are only certain bars that are the actual footprint of the market and everything else in between should be ignored. Maybe it's a naive question. Any Autistics out there want to help find them? (no offence intended, most good traders I know are a bit OCD and people with Autism see movement and recognise patterns twice as quickly as others) What might these tell tail signs look like? I realise most candlesticks people or price action people think...
breaks of psychological levels "broadcast direction"
  • #27
  • Oct 10, 2014 6:26am Oct 10, 2014 6:26am
Quoting Hyperion
Maybe there is hidden information stored in certain bars that broadcast it's direction. I wonder if there are only certain bars that are the actual footprint of the market and everything else in between should be ignored. Maybe it's a naive question. Any Autistics out there want to help find them? (no offence intended, most good traders I know are a bit OCD and people with Autism see movement and recognise patterns twice as quickly as others) What might these tell tail signs look like? I realise most candlesticks people or price action people think...
What you are trying to do is called data mining

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 121 KB


Here i`ve converted some historical data for you do do this:

The historical data is: 1 JAN 2014- 1 OCT 2014 | EURUSD | 5 MIN CHART

  1. binary version for math analysis

    1. "0" = previous bar < current bar ; "1" =previous bar >current bar ; "2"=previous bar =current bar
    2. Attached File(s)
      File Type: txt PATTERN-binary.txt   55 KB | 513 downloads


  2. (XOXO) visual version for guys who have good eyes and can spot patterns

    1. "O" = previous bar < current bar ; "X" =previous bar >current bar ; "-"=previous bar =current bar
    2. Attached File(s)
      File Type: txt PATTERN-XO.txt   55 KB | 2,086 downloads


The file should be read from top/down and from left to right, the top row is Jan 2014 and so on goes.

"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #28
  • Oct 10, 2014 7:38am Oct 10, 2014 7:38am
I also made this method more visual, by coding each option into a color in excel, so:

  1. black background = "X" --> previous bar close >current bar close
  2. blue background = "O" --> previous bar close <current bar close
  3. yellow background = "-" --> previous bar close =current bar close

And this is what it looks like, I've deleted the text to be more visual, so only the background is visible

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VISUAL.png Size: 188 KB


Here is the macro:
Inserted Code
Sub JONNY()
Dim i As Long
Dim j As Long
 
For i = 1 To 1125
For j = 1 To 200
    If Cells(i, j).Value = "X" Then
        Cells(i, j).Interior.Color = vbBlack
      
    End If
    If Cells(i, j).Value = "O" Then
        Cells(i, j).Interior.Color = vbBlue
      
    End If
    If Cells(i, j).Value = "K" Then
        Cells(i, j).Interior.Color = vbYellow
     
    End If
Next
Next
End Sub

I`ve replaced the "-" with "K" as excel doesnt like math operators to be alone in cells.

Here is the excel file, have fun with it:

Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx PATTERNTABLEx.xlsx   185 KB | 579 downloads
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #29
  • Oct 10, 2014 8:40am Oct 10, 2014 8:40am
Quoting HiddenGap
While I would not call them hidden, nor would I say everything else can be ignored, I believe Relative Aggression Bars are the type of thing you are looking for. Aggression moves the market. By definition, a transaction can only take place when there is a buyer and a seller. Therefore, when you hear things like "the market went down because there were more sellers than buyers", that information is incorr.......
I think I'm with HG on this one. I use a combo of reading the bars/volume and S/R lines. I don't always get it right, but there is always counter trading against a loosing pos. Don't do that all the time, can be stressful keeping ahead with the Free Margin if your too wrong.
Once you can read candles v's time frame(trend), it makes things a bit easier. BBands help with direction. 43green% since the start of the year, including trying to trade on my phone while on holiday (bad idea) for a month. and the start of the year, i was still working out the above details.
Hyperion, don't listen to the jokers, with their silly H.D and their screen of love (X-kiss, O-hugs). There is a pattern to this kaos, all you need is to get smart.
Just don't say
Attached Image

that can blow your account
Second star to the right, and straight on 'til morning
  • #30
  • Oct 10, 2014 9:37am Oct 10, 2014 9:37am
Quoting Proximus
I also made this method more visual, by coding each option into a color in excel, so: black background = "X" --> previous bar close >current bar close blue background = "O" --> previous bar close <current bar close yellow background = "-" --> previous bar close =current bar close And this is what it looks like, I've deleted the text to be more visual, so only the background is visible {image} Here is the macro: Sub JONNY() Dim i As Long Dim j As Long For i = 1 To 1125 For j = 1 To 200 If Cells(i, j).Value = "X" Then Cells(i, j).Interior.Color =...
It look like a painting of "Last Dinner".
  • #31
  • Oct 10, 2014 10:24am Oct 10, 2014 10:24am
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=footprint+chart
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #32
  • Oct 10, 2014 2:03pm Oct 10, 2014 2:03pm
Quoting Proximus
I also made this method more visual, by coding each option into a color in excel, so: black background = "X" --> previous bar close >current bar close blue background = "O" --> previous bar close <current bar close yellow background = "-" --> previous bar close =current bar close And this is what it looks like, I've deleted the text to be more visual, so only the background is visible {image} Here is the macro: Sub JONNY() Dim i As Long Dim j As Long For i = 1 To 1125 For j = 1 To 200 If Cells(i, j).Value = "X" Then Cells(i, j).Interior.Color =...
Thanks very much Proximus. This looks very interesting. Do you use this? Can it tell you about activity quietly happening in the background prior to a move?
  • #33
  • Oct 10, 2014 3:09pm Oct 10, 2014 3:09pm
Quoting Hyperion
{quote} Thanks very much Proximus. This looks very interesting. Do you use this? Can it tell you about activity quietly happening in the background prior to a move?
A data mining was the first thing that I did when I started analyzing the markets quantitatively. I`m just not the buy & pray type of trader I wan to know exactly the probabilities.

Unfortunately I did not found any good edges, the best that i`ve found was a similar pattern to the morning star which had a 52% accuracy i think, very small.It expectancy was about 0.2-0.3, which is very lame and almost random.

Just by looking at that previous picture you can already see that from an eye perspective it is pretty random, of course this does not disprove the existence of a subtle pattern.

In fact I`ve seen a quant website which researches the patterns of the FX markets and you can subscribe to their publishing only after you sign a nondisclosure agreement with them. So the mere fact that this high secrecy exists, we can assume that there are some hidden patterns which are very subtle, impossible to detect with the eye, and only can be detected by sophisticated quant methods.

But just plain raw data mining, from my own opinion seems not that productive.Of course I consider myself a newbie quant, I just started analyzing the markets quantitatively for about 8-9 months, so I don't know any "highly sophisticated" method.

But just from my current experiences I dont see a reliable edge in data mining as you defined it, there are pattern in the market, but you just cannot guess it like that.

My current research already showed much much better results and I`m only using conventional retail trader tactics, measured quantitatively of course (not vaguely as average traders do)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=503680
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #34
  • Oct 10, 2014 5:45pm Oct 10, 2014 5:45pm
instead of "X" "O" make it "1" "0" & search for binary smilarities or repeats
8bit 16bit 32bit etc

Quoting Proximus
{quote} What you are trying to do is called data mining {image} Here i`ve converted some historical data for you do do this: The historical data is: 1 JAN 2014- 1 OCT 2014 | EURUSD | 5 MIN CHART binary version for math analysis "0" = previous bar < current bar ; "1" =previous bar >current bar ; "2"=previous bar =current bar {file} (XOXO) visual version for guys who have good eyes and can spot patterns "O" = previous bar < current bar ; "X" =previous bar >current bar ; "-"=previous bar =current...
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #35
  • Oct 10, 2014 6:54pm Oct 10, 2014 6:54pm
Attached Image

The above chart is 1 hour chart for NZD/USD.
where the yellow circles marked for reference points, which lead a drop soon and also lead the orange circle situation.
where orange circles marked the current situation 11OCT2014 and possible future way for 13OCT2014 monday.
  • #36
  • Oct 10, 2014 7:11pm Oct 10, 2014 7:11pm
Quoting MAM.Trader
instead of "X" "O" make it "1" "0" & search for binary smilarities or repeats 8bit 16bit 32bit etc {quote}
Yes i did that there are 2 versions of the file a binary and an "XO" how did you miss it?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #37
  • Oct 10, 2014 7:27pm Oct 10, 2014 7:27pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yes i did that there are 2 versions of the file a binary and an "XO" how did you miss it?
That's not a binary file. It's still a text file.

He meant that you should group each 8 consecutive values in a byte (or 16 bit or 32 bit word) and do stats on that.

So the first 8 chars in your file (11101000) would become the 232 decimal value, and the file would only contain this byte (232, or E8 in hexa).

Of course, the 2 values are problematic since you can't fit those in.
  • #38
  • Oct 11, 2014 1:50am Oct 11, 2014 1:50am
Quoting Hyperion
Maybe there is hidden information stored in certain bars that broadcast it's direction. I wonder if there are only certain bars that are the actual footprint of the market and everything else in between should be ignored. Maybe it's a naive question. Any Autistics out there want to help find them? (no offence intended, most good traders I know are a bit OCD and people with Autism see movement and recognise patterns twice as quickly as others) What might these tell tail signs look like? I realise most candlesticks people or price action people think...
I think what you'll find is that there's information in every bar, every bar tells its own story, people tend to look at tens of charts every day without really looking, you could spend literally weeks looking at 1 chart and see something new in bars regarding the buying , selling whos doing what etc ... I agree theres certain bars that give more clues to direction but you have to be aware of where price has come from,the bigger picture or context, it will have a totally different bearing on where price is going if its come from the lows or the highs , so looking at individual bars in isolation without the whole story is a dangerous road to go down, you have to be on the right side of the flow on your timeframe..... your not just looking at bars your looking at the price movement and what price is actually doing, again the flow of price...
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #39
  • Oct 11, 2014 6:12am Oct 11, 2014 6:12am
Quoting Adal
{quote} That's not a binary file. It's still a text file. He meant that you should group each 8 consecutive values in a byte (or 16 bit or 32 bit word) and do stats on that. So the first 8 chars in your file (11101000) would become the 232 decimal value, and the file would only contain this byte (232, or E8 in hexa). Of course, the 2 values are problematic since you can't fit those in.
I could just remove the 2 values altogether because they are representing the same CLOSE price as if the market didnt moved at all.

But why does the binary files help, how do I know that the 8 size cluster is the optimal one, if we are talking about clustering the data, then any number of cluser size can be good.

For example for a morning star pattern we should have a 3 size cluster.

While the Bill Williams fractal method suggests 5 size clusters.

So we cant know which cluster size is the optimal until we didnt tested it, if we want to do data mining seriously.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #40
  • Oct 11, 2014 8:38pm Oct 11, 2014 8:38pm
thank you
Quoting Adal
{quote} That's not a binary file. It's still a text file. He meant that you should group each 8 consecutive values in a byte (or 16 bit or 32 bit word) and do stats on that. So the first 8 chars in your file (11101000) would become the 232 decimal value, and the file would only contain this byte (232, or E8 in hexa). Of course, the 2 values are problematic since you can't fit those in.
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
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