Too much dollar confidence? | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Would it be too much trouble to pay me back my $20,000, my sexy darling? 646 replies

How much profit is too much for brokers? 4 replies

Am I asking for too much? 12 replies

is it too much to ask for? 4 replies

Too much reading? 7 replies

Too much dollar confidence?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 25, 2006 12:16pm Jul 25, 2006 12:16pm
What do you guys think? Will the dollar get stronger?
  • #2
  • Jul 25, 2006 12:23pm Jul 25, 2006 12:23pm
Good question. I keep reading things here and htere about how the dollar is going to get weaker and weaker. Reading those things tainted my bias and has me a little off gaurd with the bullish dollar moves now. It's at a point where it's hard to tell if we are about to turn or keep on going.

I think it's best just to watch the charts and let them tell ya where things are going.
  • #3
  • Jul 25, 2006 12:25pm Jul 25, 2006 12:25pm
I dont know why dollar is getting stronger? Its just speculation, all fundamentals point to a weaker USD.
fxtrada.com
  • #4
  • Jul 25, 2006 12:35pm Jul 25, 2006 12:35pm
Does it metter? When it does something, be there
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #5
  • Jul 25, 2006 4:52pm Jul 25, 2006 4:52pm
We could see a lot of volatility on friday. And I mean.. a lot!!!
  • #6
  • Jul 25, 2006 5:51pm Jul 25, 2006 5:51pm
yesterday is exactly why I ignore news all together, and especially opinion sites, trade the market on its merits, what you see, not what others think they see. I have put my money behind it (http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...6&postcount=98) by the way. Of course next time I could be completely wrong, but at least I was wrong, not someone else who influenced me.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #7
  • Jul 25, 2006 8:50pm Jul 25, 2006 8:50pm
Quoting Akuma99
yesterday is exactly why I ignore news all together, and especially opinion sites, trade the market on its merits, what you see, not what others think they see. I have put my money behind it (http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...6&postcount=98) by the way. Of course next time I could be completely wrong, but at least I was wrong, not someone else who influenced me.
Second that!

For some reason I started taking notice of fundamental 'opinions' on the Dollar the past couple of weeks. It tainted by trades and confused me. ...Stick with the charts, is what I say.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #8
  • Jul 26, 2006 12:59pm Jul 26, 2006 12:59pm
Quoting bundyraider
Second that!

For some reason I started taking notice of fundamental 'opinions' on the Dollar the past couple of weeks. It tainted by trades and confused me. ...Stick with the charts, is what I say.
In Nov, 2005 GBP traded as low as 1.7048 when it began strengthening against USD continuing on through December to 1.7735, getting as high as 1.79 as we neared January of 2006.

Dollar showed some strength for 2 months, between December 29th and March 9, 2006 as the pair declined, moving from 1.7935 to 1.7230 (roughly 700 pips).

That short-term dollar bull trend reversed in March as cable moved higher by 1,700 pips over the next 9 weeks, between March (1.7231) and May 18th (1.8960). This was followed by the current short term (2 months?) dollar bull run where cable trades around 1.8500

Based on the charts, combined with the well-reasoned political opinion that the US government wants no more rate hikes, it is reasonable to conclude the recent short term (2 months?) bullish move of the dollar is similar to what happened between December 29th and March 9th - a momentary pause (correction?) in the trend of dollar weakness inspired this time by middle east conflict and other fundamental factors of which we are all aware.


So as the US government continues to prove there's no inflation, the likelihood of a rate pause will increase ....exactly what the politicians want and need at election time. Thus there may have been a short-lived baby bull trend for the greenback for the past couple of weeks but the longterm bearish trend of the dollar shall continue.

Note well: the last trend reversal when USD went bearish resulted in a 1700 pip move in two months.

Just information; not a recommendation.
  • #9
  • Jul 26, 2006 1:07pm Jul 26, 2006 1:07pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
In Nov, 2005 GBP traded as low as 1.7048 when it began strengthening against USD continuing on through December to 1.7735, getting as high as 1.79 as we neared January of 2006.

Dollar showed some strength for 2 months, between December 29th and March 9, 2006 as the pair declined, moving from 1.7935 to 1.7230 (roughly 700 pips).

That short-term dollar bull trend reversed in March as cable moved higher by 1,700 pips over the next 9 weeks, between March (1.7231) and May 18th (1.8960). This was followed by the current short term (2 months?) dollar bull run where cable trades around 1.8500

Based on the charts, combined with the well-reasoned political opinion that the US government wants no more rate hikes, it is reasonable to conclude the recent short term (2 months?) bullish move of the dollar is similar to what happened between December 29th and March 9th - a momentary pause (correction?) in the trend of dollar weakness inspired this time by middle east conflict and other fundamental factors of which we are all aware.


So as the US government continues to prove there's no inflation, the likelihood of a rate pause will increase ....exactly what the politicians want and need at election time. Thus there may have been a short-lived baby bull trend for the greenback for the past couple of weeks but the longterm bearish trend of the dollar shall continue.

Note well: the last trend reversal when USD went bearish resulted in a 1700 pip move in two months.

Just information; not a recommendation.
Looks like the Israel-Lebanon issue has been with too. That would definitely help the dollar bears.
  • #10
  • Jul 26, 2006 1:20pm Jul 26, 2006 1:20pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
In Nov, 2005 GBP traded as low as 1.7048 when it began strengthening against USD continuing on through December to 1.7735, getting as high as 1.79 as we neared January of 2006.

Dollar showed some strength for 2 months, between December 29th and March 9, 2006 as the pair declined, moving from 1.7935 to 1.7230 (roughly 700 pips).

That short-term dollar bull trend reversed in March as cable moved higher by 1,700 pips over the next 9 weeks, between March (1.7231) and May 18th (1.8960). This was followed by the current short term (2 months?) dollar bull run where cable trades around 1.8500

Based on the charts, combined with the well-reasoned political opinion that the US government wants no more rate hikes, it is reasonable to conclude the recent short term (2 months?) bullish move of the dollar is similar to what happened between December 29th and March 9th - a momentary pause (correction?) in the trend of dollar weakness inspired this time by middle east conflict and other fundamental factors of which we are all aware.


So as the US government continues to prove there's no inflation, the likelihood of a rate pause will increase ....exactly what the politicians want and need at election time. Thus there may have been a short-lived baby bull trend for the greenback for the past couple of weeks but the longterm bearish trend of the dollar shall continue.

Note well: the last trend reversal when USD went bearish resulted in a 1700 pip move in two months.

Just information; not a recommendation.

Good post.
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #11
  • Last Post: Jul 27, 2006 9:39pm Jul 27, 2006 9:39pm
Quoting MuddBuddha
Good post.
Thanks MBuddha.

Anyone notice:

Cable rose almost 300 points between Wednesday, 8:00 am eastern (1.8397) and Thursday, 9:15 am (1.8675).
0 traders viewing now