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Lost in the Tunnel...

  • #461
  • Jul 23, 2006 11:27am Jul 23, 2006 11:27am
Quoting miketoll
before using the 4h method now, i wanted to ask if someone could explain to me how to determine a "intraweek"-change, because by just following vegas "weekly"-trend change, i am always one 2 week behind the original trend.
Hi Mike,
This has been a Challenge of sorts to all who trade VT4. The Weekly Trend Lags By one week! Not to big of a problem because They generally don't change that often............When They Do.............Look out. Still this is a very powerful system!

If you use Metatrader4, then search this forum for a indicator Called "FF Tunnel Chart". This indicates a realtime Weekly Trend change at the top of the "4hr" Chart.

Quoting miketoll
But now i wonder, what the weekly- trendchange determination is good for?
So, i help someone could explain my 2 questions.
The Weekly Trend is a affirmation of Trade direction! Probabillities not certainties. If You Figure out how to do the "certainty" part PLEASE POST!
Quoting miketoll
Another thing i just want to clarify is that the fib numbers are calculated from the 8sma (from the point where the 8sma's slope changes), right?
Nope! The Fib Levels are drawn fron the 55 ma.......
I made this mistake once and was clobbered by Dial!

Quoting miketoll
I would also appreciate if someone could post some pictures (just 5-10), where the strategy is used. In this way i could check whether i do now understand the 4h method or not. This would really be nice.
Thanks very much in advance!
-Mike
Here's a crummy chart for you. If you scrub "Lost in the Tunnel" for Dial's charts you probably will get a lot more info!

Hope this helps!

Good Journey
HeavyJ
Attached Image
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #462
  • Edited 2:32pm Jul 23, 2006 2:19pm | Edited 2:32pm
thank you HeavyJ!
But could you explain the trend indicator a little bit more precise?
1. For how long does it approximately show the trend? (I mean, if the trend calculation does only last for the next 5minutes and then the trend will change i would end up in a loss. So how do i know when the trend calcultion will change?)
2. Why am i only allowed to trade if the price is between a certain "price-zone".
3. Which risk model do i have to use? Are they the same like the ones in the "vegas-daily-strategy"?
4. And what does the blue line (or the green dotted one) show(the magenta is 55ma and the red one the 8ma)?
5. Why aren't their the fib levels 55, 244, 377? (Expecially the 55 is a good take profit level, i think)

Would you explain also my last questions?

6. Would someone mind posting another picture where the 50 pip rule is?
I dont know if iam right, but i learned that when the two mas are in between 50pips you have to use the 50 pip rule (described in post 13). BUT, for how long do the boundaries last? Only for the current bar, or also for the next bars? But at the next bars the boundaries would be at another price level, so i think that the boundaries are only valid for the current bar, right?
ouhh.. i think iam confuse now.. Am i talking about the 50pip rule or the neutral line? If iam talking about the neutral line, when do i have to use it? I think it would clarify if someone posts a picture, where the two rules are both used.
7. Is there a way how i can combine the vt1 strategy with the vt4 strategy? Or does the 4h strategy replace the 1h one?
8. If its now profitable, then it will be profitable in 10 years, because market patterns dont change, right? (This is just an idea)
9. How much do you make a month? (This is just my curiosity, you dont need to answer )

Ok, this is all! Hopefully someone takes the time to answer my question.
Thank you very much in advance
-Mike
I'm getting there ... slowly
  • #463
  • Jul 24, 2006 7:07pm Jul 24, 2006 7:07pm
OK Mike! I'll give it a shot!

Before I do! Let me give you some advice! SEEK OUT DIAL!

Seriously, for the best, cohesive "lesson plan" ever on VT4 strategies try the private forum for one month <<<<unsoilcited ad="">

Caution: Bonehead teaching in Red!

Quoting miketoll
thank you HeavyJ!
But could you explain the trend indicator a little bit more precise?
1. For how long does it approximately show the trend?

I did'nt write the FF_Tunnel_Chart indie, but you really don't have to worry about it "flip-floping" every 5 minutes. I believe that it calculates the Weeky Trend based on the 4hr Bar. (21 & 5 weeks of 'em!)

(I mean, if the trend calculation does only last for the next 5minutes and then the trend will change i would end up in a loss.

Oh yeah, this has been known to happen! But not every 5 minutes. If you thought that this system won't serve you up a few losses.....I'm sorry to disapoint. But with proper risk & MM it can be extremely profitable.

So how do i know when the trend calcultion will change?)

You Won't.... But the indie will go along way towards keeping you on track!

(Don't neglect the weekly chart though as it is important to monitor the "Rate of change" from week to week! (IMO)

 2. Why am i only allowed to trade if the price is between a certain "price-zone".

Mike, I Heavourius J Maximus, give you permission to trade in any price-zone you Like!........Not exactly sure what you mean here! Could you have VWB crossed up with th 4hr system?
3. Which risk model do i have to use? Are they the same like the ones in the "vegas-daily-strategy"?

Adjust them for the best fit.....long term!

Go to the FF Tunnel Chart Indie and Change risk models in the "input" tab

 4. And what does the blue line (or the green dotted one) show(the magenta is 55ma and the red one the 8ma)?

That may be proprietary?!? I'm gonna let Dial Answer that!

5. Why aren't their the fib levels 55, 244, 377? (Expecially the 55 is a good take profit level, i think)

If you look at the chart my post above you will see that I have the 55 fib levels on my chart. That's because I apply all fib lines from 55 to 610 in #2 pencil color before I apply the FF_Tunnel_Chart indie! I like the 55 ma too! But it is not considered in the vegas version of the 4hr Tunnel! I encourage you to make up your own mind about that!
Would you explain also my last questions?

6. Would someone mind posting another picture where the 50 pip rule is?
I dont know if iam right, but i learned that when the two mas are in between 50pips you have to use the 50 pip rule (described in post 13)

I'm sorry, but I don't think I can add to Dials excellant description. Please consider reading it again>>> http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...7&postcount=12

BUT, for how long do the boundaries last? Only for the current bar, or also for the next bars? But at the next bars the boundaries would be at another price level, so i think that the boundaries are only valid for the current bar, right?

It lasts as long as the Price and MAs are within 50 pips of each other...however many bars that it takes!


ouhh.. i think iam confuse now.. Am i talking about the 50pip rule or the neutral line? If iam talking about the neutral line, when do i have to use it? I think it would clarify if someone posts a picture, where the two rules are both used.

Did you see this Mike?> http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...9&postcount=25
Maybe you missed it....it's great!

7. Is there a way how i can combine the vt1 strategy with the vt4 strategy? Or does the 4h strategy replace the 1h one?

Vegas is proud of both systems. I often check the 1hr when entering the 4hr but have yet too correlate! This is left better to others for answers.

 8. If its now profitable, then it will be profitable in 10 years, because market patterns dont change, right? (This is just an idea)

Sorry, just spilled my beer all over my crystal ball! This is a question for "Carnac". I have heard it said by smart folks that the system should work for years to come.......better go talk to the smart folks!

9. How much do you make a month? (This is just my curiosity, you dont need to answer )

I trade a small Live account that I call "The Taco Account" because it represents my "taco money" The first two months of the year I was ordering from the value menu......If things go as they have been lately....then next month I might get The Crunchy Gordito Grande with an extra dallop of Sour Creme.....(can I get a small water with that please?)

Ok, this is all! Hopefully someone takes the time to answer my question.
Thank you very much in advance
-Mike
I hope this helps in some small way. and I do mean Small way.

Please Check out the Private Forum Mike.....You won't be sorry
Good Journey
Heavorius J Maximus</unsoilcited>
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #464
  • Jul 24, 2006 8:47pm Jul 24, 2006 8:47pm
Mike (& all),

My computer crashed and burned, and I'm in process is rebuilding and reinstalling applications. I've just finished installing the Operating System and I wanted to jump in here and say I've read your questions and I'll come back and answer them AFTER I've got my 'puter back up completely.

Thanks

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #465
  • Edited 12:02am Jul 25, 2006 12:02am | Edited 12:02am
Hello All:

First post...

I've been avidly reading & studying this forum over the last week, and in particular the Vegas models. I am now seriously considering the PF forum to build and expand upon what I have learned thus far.

In particular, it seems to me that both GBP and EUR just gave signals with the change of slope on the 4H, although the weekly trends for both still remain UP, albeit with somewhat decreasing momentum from previous weeks. Is this an example of a situation which is discussed/evaluated on the PF, specifically using price action on the weekly at potential trend changes?

Regards,

fxgorilla
Michael fxgorilla
  • #466
  • Jul 25, 2006 2:41am Jul 25, 2006 2:41am
Quoting fxgorilla
Hello All:

First post...

I've been avidly reading & studying this forum over the last week, and in particular the Vegas models. I am now seriously considering the PF forum to build and expand upon what I have learned thus far.

In particular, it seems to me that both GBP and EUR just gave signals with the change of slope on the 4H, although the weekly trends for both still remain UP, albeit with somewhat decreasing momentum from previous weeks. Is this an example of a situation which is discussed/evaluated on the PF, specifically using price action on the weekly at potential trend changes?

Regards,

fxgorilla
Hi fxgorilla, and welcome to the Factory!

Yes it is. The weekly momentum is lagging and takes some experience to get a feel for it, but you are right on in your thinking that blending price action in with it is useful.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #467
  • Edited 4:51am Jul 25, 2006 4:28am | Edited 4:51am
thank you heavyJ!
You said, that you dont know what i mean with price-level (sometimes also "OK to Trade" is written).
It's the simple text, which shows the indicator in the upper left corner.
How do you add the other fib levels?
Expecially the 55, it isnt at any risk model (0-3) i can use in the indicator.
-Mike

btw: i would subscribe to the pf, but 120$ is not cheap for me, but i could afford, if i would now, whether the knife strategy will be profitable in future. (because i would need surely some time to handle this strategy and if it then isn't profitable anymore ... i think you know what i mean)
I'm getting there ... slowly
  • #468
  • Jul 26, 2006 1:06pm Jul 26, 2006 1:06pm
What is the "PF" please?

Thanks


Quoting miketoll
thank you heavyJ!
You said, that you dont know what i mean with price-level (sometimes also "OK to Trade" is written).
It's the simple text, which shows the indicator in the upper left corner.
How do you add the other fib levels?
Expecially the 55, it isnt at any risk model (0-3) i can use in the indicator.
-Mike

btw: i would subscribe to the pf, but 120$ is not cheap for me, but i could afford, if i would now, whether the knife strategy will be profitable in future. (because i would need surely some time to handle this strategy and if it then isn't profitable anymore ... i think you know what i mean)
  • #469
  • Jul 26, 2006 8:29pm Jul 26, 2006 8:29pm
I'm pretty new here and pretty new to trading. I was looking over the Vegas Wealth Builder Part II document. In Chapters 2 & 3 Vegas looks at daily data and mentions it could form the basis of a day trading system.

I would like to look at spot Forex data (EUR/USD & GBP/USD) and try to build and back test a system built on thie daily data.

Any opinions on When to start the Day? I am thinking of after NYC and before AUS opening. 23:00 GMT.

Thanks for any input.
  • #470
  • Jul 26, 2006 8:42pm Jul 26, 2006 8:42pm
Quoting its2die4
What is the "PF" please?

Thanks
that is the private forum.
  • #471
  • Jul 29, 2006 10:29am Jul 29, 2006 10:29am
Quoting miketoll
thank you heavyJ!
You said, that you dont know what i mean with price-level (sometimes also "OK to Trade" is written). It's the simple text, which shows the indicator in the upper left corner.
AH HAAA! Mike the short answer is I don't know for sure!

I "believe" that this is a calculation of the 50 pip rule! It is based on a calculation of this Vegas Filter!
Quoting miketoll
How do you add the other fib levels?
Expecially the 55, it isnt at any risk model (0-3) i can use in the indicator.
-Mike
Mike, I don't know where it is in the vegas stuff on the forum I believe? But there is an excellant post with diagrams ect which shows how to do this.
Or....If you want you can try to watch this: Bonehead Movie that I made on the subject.

Full screen view provides that "Realizm" !

Quoting miketoll
btw: i would subscribe to the pf, but 120$ is not cheap for me, but i could afford, if i would now, whether the knife strategy will be profitable in future. (because i would need surely some time to handle this strategy and if it then isn't profitable anymore ... i think you know what i mean)
Point well taken on the $120 bucks..... I hope you realize that there is a veritable plethora of knowledge. Not just the Knife method on this private forum. In this case it probably "costs" you to hang on to that $120......IMHO.

But it is good to see that you are cautious in your spending.....lotsa hucksters out there..........James16 Group does not fall in that category. In fact I would say it is the best money I have spent in training.

Hope this Helps!

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #472
  • Jul 29, 2006 11:16am Jul 29, 2006 11:16am
Dang HeavyJ this is one heck of a movie!!!
Not to mention very entertaining..

When's the next movie coming out?

Regards,
East
  • #473
  • Jul 29, 2006 12:14pm Jul 29, 2006 12:14pm
Quoting eastmaels
Dang HeavyJ this is one heck of a movie!!!
Not to mention very entertaining..

When's the next movie coming out?

Regards,
East
Funny thing was! Believe it or not! The entire movie was totally unscripted.

I guess I just have a knack for improv!

"Son of Bonehead Movie" will be out after returns come in from The "Bonehead Movie" merchandising sales! anybody want a HeavyJ Action Figure?

HJ
Attached Image
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #474
  • Jul 29, 2006 2:06pm Jul 29, 2006 2:06pm
Quoting forexjedi
Traders,<o></o>

Using MT4 with the templates provided For the Vegas 4H method I keep getting a warning pop up in my MT4. It states as follows.<o></o>
<o></o>
"warning USD/CHF slope change, only trade if price is >1.4000 <1.4600"<o></o>

or<o></o>

"USD/CHF good to trade"

These are obviously fictitious prices but can someone tell me what this means. It looks self explanatory but I just want to make sure.
ForexJedi,

These are the "Visual Alerts" in the FF Tunnel indicator. They Warn you that the slope of the 8ma has changed from up to down or versi-vicy!

The "Trade only if Price <>" means that at the time of the slope change the price is within the 50 pip rule and trades should not be taken.

"OK to Trade means that at the time of the slope change, the price is out side the 50 pip rule and you may "Trade away" when comfortable!

I turn them off in the "Input Tab" cause they drive me batty when the slope is oscilting up and down around the neutral line. It is a good idea but I don't use it. I also turn off the audio alerts as well......This is a matter of personal choice.
Quote
Currently I just wait for the newest 4 hour bar to open my trade but if I can open a position earlier then that it would be fantastic. I seems like im missing about 40 or 50 pips of each trade because I wait for the next 4 hour bar. Also I currently put at risk 40 to 50 pips for each trade which makes me a little uneasy. Is this a normal amount of pips for this method and how long does a pro hold an average trade for?Till the fibs or the TS is hit. One last question. As Vegas states you should not open a position between 7pm and 4am est as this is the asian session. Is there any other bad time to open a trade? Also, riddle me this! If the weekly chart is one week behind then how could you use the weekly for trend direction. If you look back on the weekly, the trend could change direction anytime.Im thinking about eliminating the weekly from the mix. Sorry for all the questions but this 4H method got the wheels spinning. Its to the point where all I can do is think about FX. Before FF this was just a hobby. Now I would rather die then not trade FX. Im trying to get to a bigger level of confidence and break away from my scalping habit of 10-20 pips because its gotten me nothing but break even results the past 3 years. Ok thats enough questions for now I hope someone will help me out with this.

Best regards,

ForexJedi
<o> </o>

I don't know if you have read all of this thead but it is possible to try an early entry, Based on the slope change + 15 or 20 pips if it is not to early in the current 4 hr bar.

Good Luck
HeavyJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #475
  • Jul 30, 2006 8:37am Jul 30, 2006 8:37am
thank you heavyJ!
Once again concerning the 50pip rule.
I cant understand why it exists in this way, because in some very volatile currencies 50 pips are nearly nothing. But in other currencies 50 pips are so much (sometimes it is the range for up and downtrends, like the eur/gbp, it didnt reach the 89fib line since half a year).
Wouldnt it be better, if we take a percentage of, i dont know, maybe the last daily range or so... Just to make a relative value which fits better for the respective currency, instead of taking an absolute one.
Just a thought.
Mike
I'm getting there ... slowly
  • #476
  • Jul 30, 2006 10:20am Jul 30, 2006 10:20am
Quoting HeavyJ
Or....If you want you can try to watch this: Bonehead Movie that I made on the subject.

Full screen view provides that "Realizm" !
HJ
See you at the Cannes Film Festival next year HeavyJ, you'll win a Golden Globe unless there's another Mike Whateverhisnameis documentary showing at the same time.
Excellent, I'll bookmark this for when I come back off my working holiday 10th August

Peter
  • #477
  • Jul 30, 2006 11:23am Jul 30, 2006 11:23am
Quoting HeavyJ
Funny thing was! Believe it or not! The entire movie was totally unscripted.

I guess I just have a knack for improv!

"Son of Bonehead Movie" will be out after returns come in from The "Bonehead Movie" merchandising sales! anybody want a HeavyJ Action Figure?

HJ
Hehe.. Well, I do believe ya.. With the charts not "acting" the way they should have been, it was still a great shoot!

Hmmmm... How do I get those Bonehead figures? I'd like to order 5 of those.. Oh, and I want one with the HeavyJ thong and shirt.. LOL...

Til next movie HJ!

East
  • #478
  • Jul 30, 2006 11:33am Jul 30, 2006 11:33am
Quoting HeavyJ
Or....If you want you can try to watch this: Bonehead Movie that I made on the subject.

Full screen view provides that "Realizm" !

HJ



Great movie Heavy. More, more, more . . .

It would be fun to see "Vegas : Chapter 3 "

..and the Oscar goes to . . .



<FIELDSET class=fieldset><LEGEND>Attached Images</LEGEND>http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...tid=7580&stc=1
</FIELDSET>
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #479
  • Jul 30, 2006 1:38pm Jul 30, 2006 1:38pm
Quoting miketoll
thank you heavyJ!
Once again concerning the 50pip rule.
I cant understand why it exists in this way, because in some very volatile currencies 50 pips are nearly nothing. But in other currencies 50 pips are so much (sometimes it is the range for up and downtrends, like the eur/gbp, it didnt reach the 89fib line since half a year).
Wouldnt it be better, if we take a percentage of, i dont know, maybe the last daily range or so... Just to make a relative value which fits better for the respective currency, instead of taking an absolute one.
Just a thought.
Mike
Man! I can't tell you how many times I have watched from the sideline while the 50 pip rule had me benched!

But you know what? Lotsa folks have already done the hard work of testing this strategery....and their conclusion was that it is more profitable not to enter in the 50 pip exclusion band than to take an entry. But know this! In the 4hr tunnel doc, Vegas encourages us to experiment, in a round about way.

If your testing and research shows you a better way than go for it!
I'll be cheering you on! (I hate that 50 pip rule....has saved me tho!)

I just noticed a new thread started HERE which deals with tweaks to make the 4HR version more profitable. Maybe you guys can bounce your ideas off of one another and make a mint!

The 4hr Tunnel is great as Vegas wrote it! But it can be improved! I've seen it!

Good Journey
HeavyJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #480
  • Aug 2, 2006 1:08pm Aug 2, 2006 1:08pm
this is a cry for help...
i took some trades now (about 6) and 4 of them were wrong.. I did follow the rules but somehow they reached the stop level and then reversed (this happend often).
Where do you set stop loss (approximately) and how much time give you the trend to develop?
Greets mike
I'm getting there ... slowly
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