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  • #5,241
  • Oct 9, 2014 7:31am Oct 9, 2014 7:31am
Quoting The Fool
Did Ma Yellen peg the gold bottom for the year? @ GLD that was $114.42 on 10/3. Gold up 2% in the last day. Nov vertical bull put spread on GLD - might safely sell the Nov $114 put against the long Nov $110, should be worth >$0.50 today, we'll see what GLD does this morning.
With a $0.50 credit off a Nov bull put spread, I might shop for a bullish call diag debit spread - maybe long Dec $125/short Nov $126, the latter about a $0.50 debit - will reassess as GLD up large premarket...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,242
  • Oct 9, 2014 7:55am Oct 9, 2014 7:55am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} PBR down >5% today, Silva (Candidate #3) said she not backing Neves, all iBovespa down - poll out tomorrow will likely show what a long shot Neves is in the runoff, Brazil stocks will bleed more. Anyway, I don't like cheap stock options...and I was interested in PBR if it had run up further, maybe not in the cards now. As EWZ fell today also, my calendars are all in small profit. Still a volatile situation and anything can happen. So I am babysitting.
PBR, EWZ etc all up well Wed-Thur. Silva's party announced it backs Neves, Silva herself expected to say the same today. First poll out Wed showed Neves ahead by 8 points. More polls out today. So much drama. Watching my EWZ calendars. Watching PBR to see if it will spike up and if it will b4 the election I will look to short it. I have a VALE Oct/Nov $12.50/$13.00 call spread @ $0.04 debit - stands to earn well in a Neves win. So there, I will do the samba with whoever pays me.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,243
  • Oct 9, 2014 8:09am Oct 9, 2014 8:09am
Quoting The Fool
Did Ma Yellen peg the gold bottom for the year? @ GLD that was $114.42 on 10/3. Gold up 2% in the last day. Nov vertical bull put spread on GLD - might safely sell the Nov $114 put against the long Nov $110, should be worth >$0.50 today, we'll see what GLD does this morning.
Could be. I found this article about GDX.
Bullish wick in Gold Miners taking place at monthly support.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,244
  • Oct 9, 2014 8:14am Oct 9, 2014 8:14am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} PBR, EWZ etc all up well Wed-Thur. Silva's party announced it backs Neves, Silva herself expected to say the same today. First poll out Wed showed Neves ahead by 8 points. More polls out today. So much drama. Watching my EWZ calendars. Watching PBR to see if it will spike up and if it will b4 the election I will look to short it. I have a VALE Oct/Nov $12.50/$13.00 call spread @ $0.04 debit - stands to earn well in a Neves win. So there, I will do the samba with whoever pays me.
So, she is backing him... He could win then.

Sounds like a plan. I must find pages in this thread were you explained diagonals in few examples.
Also, I find so much potential in calendars IF played well. This is a opp for me to practise more. I regularly keep some orders on EWZ, but switched to Nov/Jan.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,245
  • Oct 9, 2014 8:35am Oct 9, 2014 8:35am
diagonals I usually do as a debit spread when I have a directional bias. The GLD trade suggested above is typical for me: I think a bottom is in for GLD, so I will do a bullish put spread for credit. The bull call diag debit spread is another expression of my bullish view. I want to fund the back month long call with the front month short call AND the proceeds from the put spread. I will look to do this, at worst, at a wash - i.e., the put spread credit matches the call spread debit. If I can do it for some gain, all the better. Also, I always try to get my back month in front of my front month call. So, if GLD moves up faster than I think, I will be in good profit in the long call b4 I need to roll out the short call, or I can close the call spread b4 the short call strike is touched...

Hope that helps....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,246
  • Edited 9:09am Oct 9, 2014 8:38am | Edited 9:09am
First thing first... I closed my AA short straddle immediately...

Yesterday I sold 16 puts for $0.40, bought back for $0.10 , and 16 calls were sold for $0.37 and bought back for $0.40... So profits baby

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AA_straddle_closed.png Size: 4 KB


I had wings to guard my fear - 14 puts and 18 calls which I paid $0.03 each, so I will deduct that and commissions, and after all - not so bad.


Since I did this very small, fist ever short straddle + wings = Iron Butterfly ----> I have beer money now for entire month
(since beer in Serbia is super cheap... like Budweiser from Czech Republic is a buck for a large 0.5l can)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,247
  • Oct 9, 2014 9:05am Oct 9, 2014 9:05am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} So, she is backing him... He could win then. Sounds like a plan.
yup, anything can happen. I still think it is Rousseff's to lose. I expect big moves either way sometime today - when the next polls come out...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,248
  • Oct 9, 2014 9:24am Oct 9, 2014 9:24am
On Oct2 when TSLA was around $247 I entered an IC 220/225 + 270/275 for Oct17 expiry. Short strikes at that time was 1 SD away.
Got $0.62 credit for both sides, $1.24 total.
Since then, stock was climbing, and today is some D-day event... So yesterday I closed put side for $0.14, and today opened bull put spread higher, 240/245 for $0.57 credit... So now I have 240/245 + 270/275 Iron Condor, since stock is $262... Probably they will test my short call, but then I expect a pullback. So, just be in the 245 - 270 range and theta decay will do the rest.


From Tom Preston (tastytrade)

What volatility giveth, probability taketh away. One day, the European economy is on the ropes and the market drops. The next day, the Fed minutes state the obvious and the market rallies. But I don’t want to be the one that increases the unemployment rolls by the number of employees in traditional financial media by saying that’s just the behavior of a random, normal variable. Even though it is. And if you remember that Tuesday’s 1.55% sell off was larger than 84% of the one-day drops, yesterday’s 1.74% rally was larger than 94% of the one-day increases. Who can call those low probability events? Nobody. Which is why I count on time decay to pay the bills.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,249
  • Oct 9, 2014 9:52am Oct 9, 2014 9:52am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yup, anything can happen. I still think it is Rousseff's to lose. I expect big moves either way sometime today - when the next polls come out...
Good time then to cast our baits.... going to bid really low at EWZ 53 and 55 Nov/Jan Call Calendars
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,250
  • Edited 10:31am Oct 9, 2014 10:12am | Edited 10:31am
Quoting StrayDog
First thing first... I closed my AA short straddle immediately...
I was afraid of the call side, since they beat the estimates and blah blah blah... but now AA is $15.75, 2% down...
Sometimes you hold and market just run over you... and sometimes not. For the first ever trade on AA, and first Iron Fly - OK.

Draghi, Ebola... everything red, except Icahn and AAPL (am I glad I closed 100/102 bear call spreads the other day), D-day and TSLA
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,251
  • Oct 9, 2014 10:49am Oct 9, 2014 10:49am
Quoting StrayDog
Draghi, Ebola... everything red, except Icahn and AAPL (am I glad I closed 100/102 bear call spreads the other day), D-day and TSLA
yup I had thought for a sec about a bear call spread on AAPL for 10/18, thinking it would not test its highs the week b4 earnings - then I saw they were planning a woohoo show for next week and now Icahn stirs the pot.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,252
  • Oct 9, 2014 11:11am Oct 9, 2014 11:11am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Draghi, Ebola...
I am not really satisfied with this price action - I need to see alternating 400-600 pt up/down days in the Dow. Also, there's not nearly enough drama. I wonder what would happen if all the floor traders at the NYSE were exposed to ebola in their Starbucks? Put that scene on CNBC....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,253
  • Oct 9, 2014 11:13am Oct 9, 2014 11:13am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am not really satisfied with this price action - I need to see alternating 400-600 pt up/down days in the Dow. Also, there's not nearly enough drama. I wonder what would happen if all the floor traders at the NYSE were exposed to ebola in their Starbucks? Put that scene on CNBC....


Lets buy some cheap puts on indices on 2 SD then...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,254
  • Oct 9, 2014 11:14am Oct 9, 2014 11:14am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} With a $0.50 credit off a Nov bull put spread, I might shop for a bullish call diag debit spread - maybe long Dec $125/short Nov $126, the latter about a $0.50 debit - will reassess as GLD up large premarket...
re: this GLD spread setup - I am waiting as I see GLD sliding back a bit...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,255
  • Oct 9, 2014 11:28am Oct 9, 2014 11:28am
yipper kai yai. what s slap down
  • #5,256
  • Oct 9, 2014 11:35am Oct 9, 2014 11:35am
Quoting Cecil Gee
yipper kai yai. what s slap down
yessir, been a while since we've seen -300 on the Dow. Oyul also about to put in a low for the year it seems..
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,257
  • Oct 9, 2014 11:46am Oct 9, 2014 11:46am
my IWM diagonal is looking good, if IWM will keep sliding into next week but stay >$105 that would be ideal. IWM 52-week low is $104.92. otoh, I might be wise to close soon with decent profit. Decisions, decisions....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-10-09_iwm.png Size: 9 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,258
  • Oct 9, 2014 11:58am Oct 9, 2014 11:58am
Loving this volatility at the moment....Premium at 2SD on es min and SPX options are looking great!!! Hopefully this'll continue for a few months more...
  • #5,259
  • Oct 9, 2014 12:07pm Oct 9, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting The Fool
diagonals I usually do as a debit spread when I have a directional bias. The GLD trade suggested above is typical for me: I think a bottom is in for GLD, so I will do a bullish put spread for credit. The bull call diag debit spread is another expression of my bullish view. I want to fund the back month long call with the front month short call AND the proceeds from the put spread. I will look to do this, at worst, at a wash - i.e., the put spread credit matches the call spread debit. If I can do it for some gain, all the better. Also, I always...
Thanks for that explanation. I copied/pasted everything in one file for archive and looked at dough... also placed both spreads on IB.

If you could do it for a gain, meaning both of them for a credit, right? I see that you can enter both speads now for about $0.15 CR maybe more.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,260
  • Oct 9, 2014 12:11pm Oct 9, 2014 12:11pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Thanks for that explanation. I copied/pasted everything in one file for archive and looked at dough... also placed both spreads on IB. If you could do it for a gain, meaning both of them for a credit, right? I see that you can enter both speads now for about $0.15 CR maybe more.
cool, I will look...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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