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Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

  • #321
  • Oct 7, 2014 11:00am Oct 7, 2014 11:00am
Quoting mk5
hello Graviton, can i just ask. say if im trading on a 30M Timeframe, how long can i hold on this particular entry i made? and also you always mention 3% or 5% Profit. do you mean 5% of your capital? Keith L

Hi Keith. You can hold the trade until you have a good pre-determined reason to exit. That might be that you have hit a stop loss that you set going into the trade. NEVER increase your stop loss while in a trade. You can close because you have hit a predetermined TP going into the trade, say 2X to 4X your stop loss amount. You can close because you made a very good profit in the trade and the trend seems to be weakening. Exiting trades is something you should decide before entering. It's a critical part of your trading plan. If you are consistent, you can evaluate your exits after several trades and make improvements. If you are inconsistent, it's difficult to draw conclusions as to what to do to improve it.

Yes, 3% to 5% profit of my trading capital allocated for that week is a fantastic profit. If I make it, I'm done for the week.

Best success,

G
  • #322
  • Oct 7, 2014 11:03am Oct 7, 2014 11:03am
Quoting lemna
EUR/USD looking like a likely candidate for a short a little later.
Yea, I got burned trying to jump right back into this trade after making a great profit last week. It was a little burn, but still, once burned, twice shy. I'll want to be very sure it's returned to longer term trends to try it again.

G
  • #323
  • Oct 7, 2014 12:33pm Oct 7, 2014 12:33pm
Hi G,

Let me see if I am getting the idea. Today I have 3 trades running on SPX. The first 2 were lousy Entries but the third was pretty good. All are now going good despite my worst efforts.

I am thinking that when RSI bottoms, I will take off my worst one or two and let the third run awhile. I really dislike those first two and hate to watch them!! SL is back at BE for all 3 right now.

Looking to add on Pull Backs as the Trend is working for me now.

Sorry for the gadgets. In the future I can eliminate them if you wish.

Best, AG

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #324
  • Oct 7, 2014 5:25pm Oct 7, 2014 5:25pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
Hi G, Let me see if I am getting the idea. Today I have 3 trades running on SPX. The first 2 were lousy Entries but the third was pretty good. All are now going good despite my worst efforts. I am thinking that when RSI bottoms, I will take off my worst one or two and let the third run awhile. I really dislike those first two and hate to watch them!! SL is back at BE for all 3 right now. Looking to add on Pull Backs as the Trend is working for me now. Sorry for the gadgets. In the future I can eliminate them if you wish. Best, AG
Yes, I believe you are have it. Since you are short, you take profit off only the oldest, or most profitable lot on an impulse down when it is most profitable. Those pips aren't yours yet, but you have a little better than a 50/50 chance of keeping them.

You then have the option to adjust the remaining stops so if price moves badly (retraces hard up) you will exit BE or with just a few pips profit on the trade overall. If you are watching the trade closely and have the discipline, you can leave stops alone and exit manually if price moves against you before the whole trade goes negative. The cardinal rule is once you have (or had) three lots trading, you never take a loss. You don't worry if it all exits BE. That's what is supposed to happen often. Heaven knows there are a thousand trades I wish I'd have gotten out of at BE overall.

If price goes in your favor, you let it run until the spacing is where you want to put another lot on. You want spacing at least what it is between the two previous two lots, or a little more. If you get a small retracement that starts to end quickly and then price continues in your favor, with the spacing you want, then that is the perfect situation and you put a new lot back on and you are now riding with three lots on and your profit is locked up. Rinse and repeat over and over until it ends. The trend is your friend, until it ends, and all trends end in the end.

If all goes well, you again have three lots on and you never take a loss with 3 or more lots on, so if price moves against you, you exit all before the total of those three goes negative. That leaves you with the profit from the oldest you took off in your pocket.

Best success,
G
  • #325
  • Oct 7, 2014 5:42pm Oct 7, 2014 5:42pm
AN long looks good in my evening scan. Giving it a go.
  • #326
  • Oct 7, 2014 5:45pm Oct 7, 2014 5:45pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} ....... The trend is your friend, until it ends, and all trends end in the end. If all goes well, you again have three lots on and you never take a loss with 3 or more lots on, so if price moves against you, you exit all before the total of those three goes negative. That leaves you with the profit from the oldest you took off in your pocket. Best success, G
Many thanks G,

A Pull Back as could be expected is underway, and I have adjusted my stops to pull out some nice pips for my first 2 trades and a bit for my third if PA spikes strongly. Otherwise will see what the morning brings. Mrs AG requires more help. Something about brownies.

I really appreciate your feedback, AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #327
  • Oct 7, 2014 6:01pm Oct 7, 2014 6:01pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
{quote} Many thanks G, A Pull Back as could be expected is underway, and I have adjusted my stops to pull out some nice pips for my first 2 trades and a bit for my third if PA spikes strongly. Otherwise will see what the morning brings. Mrs AG requires more help. Something about brownies. I really appreciate your feedback, AG
LOL, I do understand. My better half needs some attention as well. It's the answer to Freud's famous dying question, "What do women want?" They want attention.

This sort of trading is not any sort of magic. It just produces consistent results and it very simply mechanizes the 5 tenants of good trading:

1) Trade with the trend
2) Cut losses short
3) Let winners run
4) Buy low
5) Sell high

If you are doing those 5 things, you are doing about the best you possibly can to "manage" your trades. I put the word "manage" in quotes because we have no way to manage the market moves. It does what it will and we simply follow, like a good dance partner or a surfer riding the waves to take him where he wants to go, even though he has no control of the wind or the ocean.

Other than that, it's all about getting good entries to good trends.
  • #328
  • Oct 7, 2014 7:15pm Oct 7, 2014 7:15pm
wow bullseye. i really did shifted my stop loss. =( i was doing ok until ytd lost almost all. i trade with 15M. any advice?

and u were saying AN looks good to go. u mean to go short right? W1 shows over downtrend am i right?
  • #329
  • Oct 7, 2014 7:54pm Oct 7, 2014 7:54pm
Still no entries for me yet. Some look good to be turning to follow original trend but from very strong pullback positions so unless that action creates a new high or low I may wait a little longer. I am not interested in movement back towards previous failure point but rather new movement to confirm trend is still supported.
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #330
  • Oct 7, 2014 8:17pm Oct 7, 2014 8:17pm
correct me if im wrong. the overall trend for AN is uptrend.
  • #331
  • Oct 7, 2014 9:19pm Oct 7, 2014 9:19pm
Hi Graviton,
I recently re-discovered this thread, I thought it had run its course when you stopped posting (when you were moving house)
I take it you expect your trades to last for days, so you look for entries on the H1 chart, and you manage your trade from the H1 chart

According to post 308
You scan for possible trades at the open of the Asian and New York Sessions, as you have to sleep sometime, I take it that you may enter trades during the Asian or New York sessions. The Asian session is often quiet and not very active, and often directional trades taken during the Asian session are nullified during the London/New York sessions
Living in Australia, I would probably scan the opens of the Asian and London sessions

Again according to post 308, You said the 6 possible trades resulting from your Monday market open scan (Asian session), were all taken
Were they all taken purely on Multiple Timeframe Analysis?
All the trades were in some form of consolidation - ready for breakout (don't know about GN as my broker does not offer this pair)
I have also read somewhere in the thread that trades were taken after a certain number of pips profit, without an entry signal - it may not have been your post - but if it was , under what circumstances would you do this

Another query - When you are already in a trade, must your stop be at break even before taking out a new trade?

Here's my trade management rules for initial stop loss and moving stop to break even, I would really appreciate any other conditions that you think are important to include in this list
Stop Loss
The initial stop loss is the HI/LO of the signal candle (don't think you approve of this - I may change it for your system)
Trade must be in profit within 3 candles
If our entry candle reverses and closes inside the body of our signal candle, the next candle must be in the direction of our trade (and not have a much small body than usual - indecision)
If our entry candle reverses and closes more than half way into our signal candle - look for exit

Moving to Break even
Once we have 1R profit move stop to Break even R=no of pips between entry and stop loss location

I really appreciate Stephen Bigalow, so some of the above may have originated from reading his books

Graviton, your system has progressed from the initial rules, It may be useful for new readers if you had some reference post where you could update it with the current rules

Thank you for spending so much of your time in helping us "traders", very much appreciated
  • #332
  • Oct 7, 2014 10:17pm Oct 7, 2014 10:17pm
Hmmm very torn now. A few pairs are approaching entry rules such as EURUSD. However my concern is price is still below or above most recent high or low and therefore could simply be ranging as the Daily charts now show weakness in those trends. I should wait for confirmation on the Daily charts and then look for entry on H2, not the other way around. Entering now on H2 simply means I may get into re-establishment of trend early but really it would be a fluke and could just as easily be going nowhere.

USDCAD and AUDUSD looks close as well.
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Winners add to winning trades!
  • #333
  • Oct 8, 2014 2:13am Oct 8, 2014 2:13am
Ref post 330
Hi mk5,
There are many ways to determine trend direction on any timeframe, whichever one you use - just be consistent (don't chop and change) no method is correct all the time
Probably as good as any is using a simple SMA10 moving average
price close above ma - uptrend
price close below ma - down trend
or maybe:
A changeover of the SAR indicator
SAR indicator below price - uptrend
SAR indicator above price - downtrend
or
change your chart to a line chart
higher peaks and higher troughs - uptrend
lower peaks and lower troughs - down trend
or etc etc.......
Their are many ways used by traders to define trends, just pick one that you are comfortable with
  • #334
  • Oct 8, 2014 3:45am Oct 8, 2014 3:45am
im looking based on 4H D1 WK1
  • #335
  • Oct 8, 2014 4:38am Oct 8, 2014 4:38am
Don't believe that's how Graviton operates?
  • #336
  • Oct 8, 2014 5:51am Oct 8, 2014 5:51am
Quoting mk5
wow bullseye. i really did shifted my stop loss. =( i was doing ok until ytd lost almost all. i trade with 15M. any advice? and u were saying AN looks good to go. u mean to go short right? W1 shows over downtrend am i right?
Yes, I have some advice. Computers trade the 15M and below these days. Unless you are a savant at the 15M, it's almost impossible to make a profit on it. My advice is don't trade below the H1. Cheers.

G
  • #337
  • Oct 8, 2014 5:52am Oct 8, 2014 5:52am
Quoting marshalmax
Still no entries for me yet. Some look good to be turning to follow original trend but from very strong pullback positions so unless that action creates a new high or low I may wait a little longer. I am not interested in movement back towards previous failure point but rather new movement to confirm trend is still supported.
Very wise MarshalMax. Entries stink this week. Let the market come to you.

G
  • #338
  • Oct 8, 2014 5:54am Oct 8, 2014 5:54am
Quoting mk5
correct me if im wrong. the overall trend for AN is uptrend.
You are correct, but the AN turned down just as I said it. Entries aren't good this week. Just the way it is.

G
  • #339
  • Oct 8, 2014 6:53am Oct 8, 2014 6:53am
Quoting lizpet
Hi Graviton, I recently re-discovered this thread, I thought it had run its course when you stopped posting (when you were moving house) I take it you expect your trades to last for days, so you look for entries on the H1 chart, and you manage your trade from the H1 chart According to post 308 You scan for possible trades at the open of the Asian and New York Sessions, as you have to sleep sometime, I take it that you may enter trades during the Asian or New York sessions. The Asian session is often quiet and not very active, and often directional...
Hi Lizpet. Yes to all. I trade NY and the first half of Asian. I sleep the second half of Asian and first half of London. I'd prefer to sleep all Asian and trade all London and NY, but that doesn't agree with my time zone here.

The 6 trades I took on Monday were probably ill considered as the market was just opening and reversals occurred shortly thereafter. I'm returning to the rule of not trading the open (again). The market is just too unstable on the open. I had to manually exit 4 of those 6 trades and I'm not happy about that, so trading very carefully the rest of the week.

Quote
I have also read somewhere in the thread that trades were taken after a certain number of pips profit, without an entry signal - it may not have been your post - but if it was , under what circumstances would you do this

Yes. If the trade has moved ahead a sufficient number of pips and there is no retracement, I will just enter another lot. Sometimes in very good markets I don't get many retracements to use for entries. Usually I'll do that if it moves 50 to 75 pips, all trends are still in the right direction and there is no indication of a retracement.

Quote
Another query - When you are already in a trade, must your stop be at break even before taking out a new trade? Here's my trade management rules for initial stop loss and moving stop to break even, I would really appreciate any other conditions that you think are important to include in this list Stop Loss The initial stop loss is the HI/LO of the signal candle (don't think you approve of this - I may change it for your system) Trade must be in profit within 3 candles If our entry candle reverses and closes inside the body of our signal candle,...

I won't always move stop to break even before taking a new trade. It depends on the volatility of the market. But reducing risk on the old trade before putting a new one on is a good practice. Sometimes I'll just move the stop up to just below the next higher support. As the trade progresses we are increasing the size with more lots, so it's a good practice to reduce risk in another way by tightening the stop a little. Even moving it 1/2 way to break even is a step in the right direction to reducing risk a little as new lots are added. The greatest risk is when 2 lots are on, so that's where we want to look at moving the first stop up some, somewhere between just below the next support up and BE. We have NO risk when 3 trades are on as we will NEVER allow a loss with 3 or more trades on. We will exit all before we allow a loss once we have 3 trades on.


I have no problem with your entry rules. They sound very reasonable to me. I'd just add, trade with the trend to them. As far as moving stops, I don't know of anyone who ever got rich by fiddling with stops. Trading the stop below previous support is a good method and I use it quite often myself.

It's true that my "system" adjusts over time with changing market conditions. I'll recap everything in another post soon. I'm not sure if I completely answered all your questions, so feel free to restate any for a (hopefully) better explanation. Good to see you back Lizpet. Best success to you.

G
  • #340
  • Oct 8, 2014 7:04am Oct 8, 2014 7:04am
Quoting marshalmax
Hmmm very torn now. A few pairs are approaching entry rules such as EURUSD. However my concern is price is still below or above most recent high or low and therefore could simply be ranging as the Daily charts now show weakness in those trends. I should wait for confirmation on the Daily charts and then look for entry on H2, not the other way around. Entering now on H2 simply means I may get into re-establishment of trend early but really it would be a fluke and could just as easily be going nowhere. USDCAD and AUDUSD looks close as well.
The feeling of being torn is a warning sign to stay out. "When in doubt, stay out." The market has been very unstable this week. Wait for it to come to you. Usually you won't have to wait more than a couple days, but in the worst case I've seen it go two weeks with no tradable trends. It's tough to just sit on the sidelines that long, but good trading is tough in many ways, one way is it tests your patience over and over until it finally fails. Be patient and don't let it get to you and entice you into trades that you should never have taken. If you can't resist the urge to trade, then trade with 1/10th your usual size until the market acts better. Hang tough.

G
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