GBP/JPY

Bears are temporarily in control but the economics of Japan haven't improved. This is profit taking and short covering on the GBP and USD side. Short term down but the upside will resume soon enough on US and GBP vs JPY. GBP 180-182 by end of year.

Retracement of a monthly bar which engulfs 5 previous months and then closes at a multi year high? Let's get cooking!



We can see reversal of the Kumo and the hourly rejects the 61.8% retracement level as I post. Low risk entry on the hourly you lucky people.
Inset is the monthly chart.

Well here's another way to look at it.

Again, I look at non-standard time frames quite often.

Here's a chart where each bar is four weeks.

What is currently a giant month long pin bar, which is also a volume high going back two years, will close at the end of this week.

Also keep in mind that this is rejecting off a very major S/R level.

I'm not telling you to go short, but rather just putting the info out there so you can examine your own opinions and come to your own conclusion.

I'd never let a non standard time frame candle influence me, much less if the candle is not even complete. In any case, talking candles, I think monthly engulfing trumps?
Good luck to you anyway.

I think this is why trading is so difficult (at least for most of us, me included), since there are so many views of price movement.

But, I agree with smikester on the monthly pin having some pretty heavy significance. But I also agree with XNAdam, in that price action can be an indicator on any time frame if there is enough supporting context. But back to smikester, I agree we need to wait for the week to end, as this baby can really move in a short period of time when it wants to...

Also, regarding that pin bar, I can't see the context of it, as I don't have a chart capable of 3 week bars. Is it rejecting the supply area? Sometimes, I've noticed bearish looking pins can be bullish if the base of the pin is right at the resistance area - it shows that the price movement is powerful and was able to pierce right through the resistance, and is a precursor to further upward movement. I say this, since the latest price movement was a break out of consolidation. However, maybe it broke out, only to hit more resistance? And then there's that whole "false breakout thing", so who knows?

But if the pin bar is basically "within" consolidation within the context of whatever time frame, then it's hard to really assume anything about it, until further price action confirms what it meant...

I'd need to see the context to form an opinion, not that my opinion would hold a lot of weight, though, I'm sure you guys are probably all better traders than I am, as I've only been trading full time for almost 2 years, and the jury is still out as to whether I will make it or not.

So, I'm still learning, and appreciate all of the great experience from you guys...

Not sure I follow this? What time frame are you seeing a reversal on?

Context of the four week pin.

Again, I'm not saying to place a short right now, but rather that I think this week's close will be significant in determining direction, as well as price reaction to 171.85 area, if by chance it ever gets there.

The two red lines are what I consider major long term S/R.

Then threw two fibs on there for fun.

Grey line is current price.

Volume is on the rise on the pin.

Who knows?

I'm not a long term trader, but I do use it to an extent to help guide short term entries.

Just offering what I see, that's all.

Then I also threw a 200 SMA on there for fun.

I maybe possibly MIGHT have think about using it more for confluence.

I keep getting surprised whenever I put it on a chart, lol.

bit of late night analysis, back to normal H4 chart, as a small follow up from an earlier post.

pinged off 173.60, and we've been hanging around 174 for a bit now.

if we don't get significant movement down through the next couple sessions, I imagine we'll have a nice retest of 175, as there was quite a bit of nice action there.

the bit marked with the circle is another area I've become interested in.

if we move up to 175 and find that resistance ranges the pair around that level, I would expect decisive action in that area.

lots of confluence: horizontal S/R, trendline resistance, two major fib levels, and that pesky little SMA that I haven't taken off my chart yet will likely be there as well. there's also another wierd little ascending trendline S/R coming into this area from the range prior to the huge moves. not sure how much weight I give it specifically, but it's there (not shown on chart, too lazy to go back and screen cap it)

and of course if it does move down, I'm still interested in the 171.75 area for all the same confluence reasons, except that the SMA is approaching on D1 charts instead.

night all, gonna let the storms lull me to sleep.

seeing some divergence on the H1 and support at 61.8%, still got a weekly pivot untouched at 175.863

It's a daily chart.

I'm going to post a chart and then leave.



This 5 minute chart has a red line. the red line is the London open (day). If we trade below this line then all long entries are off, for me at least.

Second time trying to break 173.62 line

Once 173.6 line is breached for good, where the next decent resistance? We always have a psychological resistance at whole numbers, so we definately have 174 (support being 173). But is there any before that? I can't seem to find any right now.

Right here shap, short term resistance at 173.90. Look at that cluster of hourly closes. Bit of a barrier to break, but the long term favors a break in my opinion. Just need to be loose enough for the whip lash that may happen here.

great luck

Looks to me like a reversal shaping up near the bottom of the trend line of that H4 flag, and looks to head up at least to the top of the flag.

Anyone agree? Disagree?

...as long as it stays above that bottom new upward trend that just started (above is H1 chart).

Finally turning and upside potential is great...

Looks like FOMC shook quite a few pairs up!

I'm currently putting this pair on the back burner for a bit until direction is a bit more established.

Good luck!

Man I sure hope that was it for the 173's. Loaded it up average price 174.77. Now please please please take a straight line 180. Thank you very much.