Time analysis - "the other half of the picture"

I just saw an article here (I don't know you can access it):
http://www.svquant.com/documents/ffm_paper_1998.pdf

They write that they changed the data in Market Time Data, that means they stretch the time when there is a lot of activity and contract it when there is less activity. They also write that with those new data some technical inidcators and systems seem to work better.

Wow that is one interesting, and mind bending read, thanks JosTheelen and very relevant to the topic that's for sure. Might take me a while to soak it in though.

Wow. Great thread. Haven't read it all yet, but what I've read sounds like my own personal journal with "time".

I've been studying "time" hardcore for the last 6 months. Started with fib time, moved on to Gann, Bayer, Cowan, and other "natural" divisions of time. I had a journal at mtec about it for a while and made about 50% on the account in 5 weeks. However, trading concepts I wasn't solid on yet I ended up losing most of my roll. Since then I've gone to the basement and shored up my understanding.

In the last 30 days I've started a demo account to trade nothing but "time" and Gann. By Gann I don't mean those chart overlays with a billion lines. Learn sq of 9. Anywho... in just under 30 days that demo went from $3k to over $35k. (I'll post the report for the doubters if need be.) No massive over leveraging or over trading. More or less nickle/dimed it with a few quarters and half dollars on the good days. 56-2 wins/losses and those 2 losses should have been wins but I closed them out doubting myself.

I'm not bragging because I know demo doesn't mean squate. The real test will be when I go live again. But the point being "time" works. It's not about predicting the future. It's knowing when the future has arrived. Knowing that increases the probabilities of "guessing" right and knowing the true risk. Afterall, in the the end, trading is all about risk.

BTW lunar cycles are great. Also check out moon v/c, lunar declination, eclipses, etc.

I'm only 6 months into this study which I'm guessing will probably take a few years. The deeper I get, the more I realize that the well gets deeper exponentially.

That's a fantastic effort JR97, would you care to elaborate on your technique a little please.


Regards MP

Hey everyone! Can someone who is into this time/price research recommend some books/articles?

Thanks

Nice work JR97, and I don't doubt the results a bit. I have read 2 of Gann's original works (Tunnel Thru the Air, Magic Word), did you say you use Square of 9? It is something I am working hard on currently along with some planetary aspect work so would love to hear some thoughts.

We are trying to get a little community together over at http://www.beginnertrader.com/forum2/index.php dealing with this style of trading so head over and have a look if you are interested (it is early days). I'm with you, time is more important than price.

So looking into some other aspects, Monday may be the top of this recent move up in the EURUSD (see here as to why I am guessing that: http://www.beginnertrader.com/forum2...opic.php?id=95)

Basically buy low sell high. buy high sell higher. Nothing different than any other trader. Divisions of Sq. of nine are my price support/resistence levels. Squares of time are my "timing" marks. I do watch "natural" phenominon as a heads up, but in the end the trading decisions come down to trading support/resistence and other typical price behavioural patterns. The "esoteric" stuff just gives a "when" to start watching for a tradeable move and the likely points of destination in price and time. 9/10 you can find the same points with trendlines and other traditional methods. But the "esoteric" helps find those points way in advance.

I'm a pretty short term trader. I Rarely hold on to stuff more than 48 hours. Although as my understanding grows, I see the benefits of keeping things open for the full cycle phase of the move over however many days the cycle is good for.

Gann himself spent a lot of time writing about using common sense trading methods such as trading with a trend unless there's a solid case against being counter.

Anywho... like I said before.. this stuff isn't about predicting the future. It's about knowing when the future has arrived and risking accordingly.

Ah perfectly put, Ill have to remember that one

I found a guy at moneytec who master the Delta Phenomena and then another guy told him to keep it low key. So they're on to something but they don't want to share much. If you have anything, please share.

if you just google delta phenomenono you will find everything you want on it. There is a book out by the guy who came up with it its 175 bucks. Someone probably photocopied it and its out there on pdf somewhere.

Some people are saying it's useless others is amazing and they only use that to trade.

looks very promising in a way but lots of reviews from people who really dont agree with it.

So its no secret man its out, its not like you're gonn have to worry about it not working anymore cause so many ppl are using it cause its been out for awhile (1991)

Well I have read it, and I think it sits somewhere in between the two extremes on first read. Many will brush it off as nonsense, others will say it is the Holy Grail, I say it is neither but certainly worth looking into further. Be warned though, the book does not provide you with a hard and fast system, there is some discovery you need to do yourself which is probably why some rubbish it as they either couldn't, or wouldn't put in a little work themselves.

(selling EUR strength today looking for a reversal based on a Moon/Lileth aspect (http://www.beginnertrader.com/forum2...opic.php?id=95))

Regarding time analysis, I have just done a Gann time study on the AUDUSD over at beginnertrader.com using the Gann wheel and the Hexagon chart, it took my yonks to post it there so I won't do it again here ... but if you want to have a look, check it out and let me know what you think ... the summary ... AUDUSD to drop.

http://www.beginnertrader.com/forum2...pic.php?id=115

^^ Thanks for the wheel. I was looking all over the net.

No worries Bonzai, be sure to check in and let us know how you go with it, we are all on a learning curve

Somewhere back in the FF archives is a post of mine explaining a simple tool that i use on my MT4 charts.

When i took my training classes and also went through the home study course that MTI (market traders institute) sells i was facinated by the idea of "Harmonic Beats". Jared Martinez, MTI founder, came up with the idea that the currency market "Beats" at 60 pips. 30pips is a nice zoom in on the HB concept and what i use on my charts.

Here is how i set things up.

There is an MT4 tool that is usually not used by most, it is called the "Fibonacci Expansion" tool that you can add to the tool bar area if you right click on the tool bar and select the "Customize" feature. Then scroll down in the left hand window and select "Fibonacci Expansion" and "Insert" the tool in to the right hand "Selected" window. Then click the close button.

Now place one on your charts and right click on the drawn object and select "Expansion Properties". Once there go to "Fibo Levels". I then got rid of all the levels and added the following:

0. / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.25 / 1.5 / 1.75 / 2 ... you get the idea.

Now place the tool's 0 marker at an even number, say 1.2000 then move the 1 (100%) to the 1.2060. You will now have a tool that is drawing a line at 0 , 15, 30, 45, 60. On lower time frames i will draw the line from 1.2000 to 1.2030 so i have the 7.5, 15, 22.5, 30 drawn for heads up in those areas. If looking at the larger 4 hour or daily charts i will use 1.2000 to 1.2060 for the full 60 beats. OK, so now you have your tool drawn for that time frame and chart...

Now take the tool (by grabbing the center dot) and place the 0% at the A of the move and look to see some consolidation or a pause at the various levels.

Easy, practical, and insightful...for my style anyway.

Cheers,
Thom

Hi again, I wanted to post this image to graphicaly explain what i was trying to tell above.

Here is the image of a 5 min EURUSD MT4 chart i took a screen shot of this morning after the NFP data frenzy:

http://accrete.com/fx-posts/harmonicbeatexample.png


If you follow the like-kind lines (dash dash to dash dash, or dot dash to dot dash, etc) you will find they are 30 pips apart. I look for the price to begin a new move and note the line style/level, then i will watch for pauses and possibly take profits/partial profits at these areas.

The vertical yellow line that intersects the large bars is the 1.23 of the last major move drawn with the Fibo Time tool. The second vert.yellow is the 1.38 where there was another pause. I have no idea how to incorporate the vertical fibo time tool in real time trading, i placed that tool on the chart as an after thought. But it was drawn from the prior low to prior high like i would in real time. But then again, draw enough lines on a chart and you are bound to have some hits. LOL.

Cheers,
Thom

[quote=Akuma99]So looking into some other aspects, Monday may be the top of this recent move up in the EURUSD (see here as to why I am guessing that: http://www.beginnertrader.com/forum2/viewtopic.php?id=95)[/QUOTE]

It is a very interesting finding for the time/moon analysis. The apogee was on 07/08/06 and the Eur/usd turned around at the 2nd day... Obviously the news from FOMC couldn't shake the moon.
Therefore the record for this year is still 100%

Let's wait and see the next one on 16/08/06

Hope to see your next analysis

I would be very interested to get together with anyone seriously interested in developing a time cycle analysis tool.

Delta works on different cycles of various lengths, as Wilder might sue my arse if he comes to this forum, I better not go into too much detail. But I am quite happy to share the results of my findings so please PM me.

Ok the other thing is we all look at price but time holds the key, put together the two and we are all rich. I can predict prices not a problem. I can also predict times +-2 or 3 days. Intraday forget it I fail big time. Trouble is I like fast cash and waiting three days is not my style.

So I know prices form patterns, my idea is time also forms patterns. So if you have a butterfly or gartley in price, then that must form a time pattern. As you go into different time frames each pattern gets bigger so you can also reverse and go into smaller time frames (intraday).

Your reference to certain moves repeating over and over again is similar to what I have discovered, price moves occur in ratios. The ratio is the same as the diagonal of a square with equal sides expressed as a ratio to the length of the side.

If any one wants to get together on this I would be delighted to contribute.

Smalldog

Akuma,

Can you do me a favor and post the Gann Wheel v.1.1 zip here? Tried getting it off the other forum and each tim i try to open it i get an error that its not a vlaid archive.

Also wanted to add an idea i recently started kicking around. Has more to do with mathmatics than time, but time may end up being a factor in the calculation but,... what if there was an equation that could predict the next high/low no matter what the h/l used was... Kind of a "universal" equation. Just a thought. I'll keep kicking around the ol' skull.