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Quoting whatever007
{quote} Analysis is very good. I am more longer term than what timeframe you are trading. Expecting 185-197 this year. Daily close below 175 will be more bearish, EMA 34. Nice trade last night, very good call.
Thanks, but again, I agree with your current view of the long term bullishness. I keep telling myself every time I enter a trade, that I'm one engulfing bar away from being wrong

I'd rather do longer term trading, as it's less stressful, but can't afford to wait that long. Plus I'd assume you'd need to trade more than one currency pair at a time. I get frazzled trying to analyze too many things at once
I think it may try to test the daily pivot again. It's been in a very tight range coming down (about 50-60 pips)...

If it breaks above the DP and top of the range, might be time to put the bull hats on. Not sure right now.

Another decisive rejection of DP, or show it can't make it up there, would maybe confirm short view, but still would be in that 50-60 pip range.
I'm afraid we are once more in a crappy range this week and the break out will be next week.... when we will reach the oversold downtrendline....
There's a fight going on currently, around 175.

It's hypnotizing to watch.
I'd have liked it to close a bit more down towards it's low, but I do like that sharp test and rejection.

We'll see how it reacts if it gets down to 174.40.

After that, my next areas of interest are 173.60 and 171.85.
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Quoting XNAdam
I'd have liked it to close a bit more down towards it's low, but I do like that sharp test and rejection. We'll see how it reacts if it gets down to 174.40. After that, my next areas of interest are 173.60 and 171.85. {image}
Maybe heading to your 173.6...
This is the last daily support level it is currently at. I don't expect it to hold, but we'll see. If it falls through, should very quickly fall to 173.5/6ish
Question. Has anyone every seen a big bullish move/reversal after 2 almost perfectly formed bearish engulfing bars (H1 chart)?

If it doesn't go down, I think I'll need therapy
keep in mind this is a pretty big level. price might hover around here for a bit.
Okay, maybe I'll hold off on calling the therapist.
Ready for the bulls?
Maybe. I've definitely closed out all my positions. I don't feel like holding overnight with all this choppiness, mostly because I don't sleep well when I'm extremely uncertain and holding over the night/weekend.

There's a lot of pressure up, and 175 keeps rejecting.

This hour is looking strong, but moves have been sharp and quick the last few hours.

Could come back down into range, could bolt up and start a move to retest major S/R at 177.50.

I will find out in the morning, I guess. G'night!
also, side note, when G/J gets choppy a bit like this, I look to G/U and U/J to see if there are any clear signals on them.

If they're moving in opposite directions, it's gonna be choppy, if they're moving in the same direction, there will be a directional move on G/J.

Just something to ponder over night.
Quoting XNAdam
also, side note, when G/J gets choppy a bit like this, I look to G/U and U/J to see if there are any clear signals on them. If they're moving in opposite directions, it's gonna be choppy, if they're moving in the same direction, there will be a directional move on G/J. Just something to ponder over night.
Thanks for pointing this out. What time frames do you compare them on? H1/H4?
Looks good for a long

http://i.imgur.com/yEAwriJ.png

http://i.imgur.com/FCthr1h.png
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Thanks, but again, I agree with your current view of the long term bullishness. I keep telling myself every time I enter a trade, that I'm one engulfing bar away from being wrong I'd rather do longer term trading, as it's less stressful, but can't afford to wait that long. Plus I'd assume you'd need to trade more than one currency pair at a time. I get frazzled trying to analyze too many things at once
Looks like short term bearish call was right on. Support above 173 next maybe.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #1,697
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  • Edited 10:35am Oct 7, 2014 10:31am | Edited 10:35am
Quoting whatever007
{quote} Looks like short term bearish call was right on. Support above 173 next maybe.
yes, but I think I'm wearing myself out and losing hair trying to change directions with this thing

I'm long now, at the bottom of the downward channel (H1 chart), and seems to be finding support. Break of the channel negates my analysis, so pretty small risk pips wise. We'll see if/when/how it reacts at the top of the channel?
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A terminating pattern of an ending diagonal on the final wave [v] looks complete near 61.82% retracement. Expecting a rapid advance back up to 175.00 as a 1st target. Keeping an eye on USDJPY.
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Thanks Skyhok! I hope you're right. I'm still long, as it looked like a solid support level to me, just needed to give it some room...
  • #1,700
  • Quote
  • Edited 12:44pm Oct 7, 2014 12:43pm | Edited 12:44pm
price dipped into my first area of interest.

we'll see what price does here, but still bearish.

Personally, I want to see definite price reaction to 171.85 area before I entertain long positions.
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