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  • #5,181
  • Oct 6, 2014 6:56am Oct 6, 2014 6:56am
wow EWZ up 9%, >$47 pre-market; VALE up 5.8%; PBR up 16.7%.

So if Silva endorses Neves the buzz will be he will beat Dilma in the runoff, Bovespa will bounce like rubber. Hold on to your hats....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,182
  • Oct 6, 2014 7:13am Oct 6, 2014 7:13am
Quoting The Fool
.." thinking of earnings coming up - the first person who can show me a decent idea for the above use of a calendar spread as a directional play at ER will win a fabulous prize!
Just the thing I wanted to ask... since calendars are volatility plays.

I intent to do lots of ER's plays, and most of them will be non-directional plays.
Majority of stocks remains in their estimated move, so I will do Iron Condors, since my account size does not support naked strangles or straddles. I will do them perhaps on cheaper stocks with small historical vol. Directionally I could just sell put or call spreads, AND would do long strangles or straddles only on small number of stocks. This week we have YUM, AA, COST, MON, PEP... of larger companies. I didn't trade them so far, so first I need to see their options. So, basically I will stick to strategies that I did before, and after this ER's cycle I will have good database of my own - what stocks to avoid, what to do, what did or didn't make money...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,183
  • Oct 6, 2014 7:18am Oct 6, 2014 7:18am
Quoting The Fool
wow EWZ up 9%, >$47 pre-market; VALE up 5.8%; PBR up 16.7%. So if Silva endorses Neves the buzz will be he will beat Dilma in the runoff, Bovespa will bounce like rubber. Hold on to your hats....
I have only Nov/Dec 50 call calendar... with $0.07 average debit.
EWZ almost $48 now...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,184
  • Edited 7:49am Oct 6, 2014 7:19am | Edited 7:49am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Just the thing I wanted to ask... since calendars are volatility plays. I intent to do lots of ER's plays, and most of them will be non-directional plays. Majority of stocks remains in their estimated move, so I will do Iron Condors, since my account size does not support naked strangles or straddles. I will do them perhaps on cheaper stocks with small historical vol. Directionally I could just sell put or call spreads, AND would do long strangles or straddles only on small number of stocks. This week we have YUM, AA, COST, MON, PEP... of...
sounds good, it's good idea to keep those records. Also note the charts I posted above, showing i.v. peak sometimes occurring well before the ER date. If you're counting on selling premium to get profit from the IC spreads, does it make sense to enter the IC's a week or so early, to try to catch that peak?

I'm not doing ER plays on anything with ER's out this week, will likely do some on the higher-priced stocks I noted above....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,185
  • Oct 6, 2014 7:35am Oct 6, 2014 7:35am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} sounds good, it's good idea to keep those records. Also note the charts I posted above, showing i.v. peak sometimes occurring well before the ER date. If you're counting on selling premium to get profit fro the IC spreads, does it make sense to enter the IC's a week or so early, to try to catch that peak? I'm not doing ER plays on anything with ER's out this week, will likely do some on the higher-priced stocks I noted above....

I suppose so, if you can time it. I don't have access to ToS, where you can see that IV move graphically. I usually enter IC 2-3 hours before closing bell, if ER's are AH or tomorrow BMO for that stock... and place short strikes on edges of estimated move. Thinking of short strangles for cheaper stocks also... since you have to do 4 or 5 IC's for the same money that you can make from 1 short strangle. Maybe I will try that, 1 SD wide - for practise - if placing it on edges of EM is "to scary"... If ER's are on Monday/Tuesday I will do it with that week expiration, if they are later in the week I will switch to next week expiration.

These are just something that I generally plan, but will adjust if necessary to each individual stock.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,186
  • Oct 6, 2014 7:47am Oct 6, 2014 7:47am
well, that i.v. runup does not always occur before the ER, sometimes m/l coincides with the ER date - like YUM. I have made money doing long strangles on YUM in the past. Can you plot historical vol or i.v. in the charting IB provides?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-10-06_YUM.png Size: 125 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,187
  • Oct 6, 2014 8:17am Oct 6, 2014 8:17am
Quoting The Fool
well, that i.v. runup does not always occur before the ER, sometimes m/l coincides with the ER date - like YUM. I have made money doing long strangles on YUM in the past. Can you plot historical vol or i.v. in the charting IB provides? {image}
Never bothered with IB charts (not user friendly for TA, that is why I use TradingView), but HEY, thanks for that question, because YES, I can put both of them.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yum.png Size: 48 KB


This could be useful, IB charts for quick look at vol...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,188
  • Oct 6, 2014 8:48am Oct 6, 2014 8:48am
I.V. of the Nov calls has actually GONE UP (while Jan's have remained the same) - so $50 Nov/Jan calendar is losing a little money. That can change if the front month i.v. will drop, but with the prolonged election process, that may not happen. My lower calendars ($48 & $49) look a little better. Patience....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-10-06_EWZ.png Size: 14 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,189
  • Oct 6, 2014 8:55am Oct 6, 2014 8:55am
Quoting The Fool
I.V. of the Nov calls has actually GONE UP (while Jan's have remained the same) - so $50 Nov/Jan calendar is losing a little money. That can change if the front month i.v. will drop, but with the prolonged election process, that may not happen. My lower calendars ($48 & $49) look a little better. Patience.... {image}
I guess we will just wait for Oct26 than. Plenty of time from that date - when IV IS going to crash :nerd: - to Nov expiry.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,190
  • Oct 6, 2014 9:10am Oct 6, 2014 9:10am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I guess we will just wait for Oct26 than. Plenty of time from that date - when IV IS going to crash :nerd: - to Nov expiry.
well, it's gonna be interesting. I have big chunks of margin tied up in these and I didn't want to wait, but on second thought, maybe that will be ok. The EWZ share price will likely rise/fall with the polls. If "business friendly" Neves pulls out a victory over "socialist" Rousseff, EWZ will bounce back to >$50 on the morning after the runoff. By then we will have had a chance to earn some time premium on the short calls. Just close the shorts before they cross their strike, then sit back and watch the P/L digits roll up. I am prolly gonna have to get a wider monitor to make room for all them digits...

digits

too much drama
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,191
  • Oct 6, 2014 9:26am Oct 6, 2014 9:26am
Quoting The Fool
... digits too much drama
Yes... .

I managed little by little to close 10 calendars (some for $0.20) out of 20 I had. First sell to close Dec options and than buy to close Nov ones.

I am thinking maybe I can take profits and re-enter them or Nov/Jan which you prefer. I did not expect a 10% rise...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,192
  • Oct 6, 2014 12:01pm Oct 6, 2014 12:01pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yes... . I managed little by little to close 10 calendars (some for $0.20) out of 20 I had. First sell to close Dec options and than buy to close Nov ones. I am thinking maybe I can take profits and re-enter them or Nov/Jan which you prefer. I did not expect a 10% rise...
time will be our friend (if you stay in). All of mine are somewhere between b/e and small profit. Except the $53's, which are in decent profit. I have >100 altogether....



I can't look at the i.v.'s now but these might continue to be worth doing, although I noticed the Jan strikes i.v.'s had come up a fair amount today, also.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,193
  • Oct 6, 2014 12:04pm Oct 6, 2014 12:04pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} time will be our friend (if you stay in). All of mine are somewhere between b/e and small profit. Except the $53's, which are in decent profit. I have >100 altogether.... I can't look at the i.v.'s now but these might continue to be worth doing, although I noticed the Jan strikes i.v.'s had come up a fair amount today, also.
Here, last column

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ewz_ivs.png Size: 7 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,194
  • Oct 6, 2014 12:14pm Oct 6, 2014 12:14pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Here, last column {image}
thanks, yes, everything came up. Things were better before. What comes up, must down, though.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,195
  • Oct 6, 2014 12:26pm Oct 6, 2014 12:26pm
Entered a new trade for this week on AAPL, looking for AApl to test the highs and with earnings just a couple weeks away will the aaple traders anticipate a good report with indexes, went long $101 calls for 40c and for Fridays expiration

AAPL Oct 2014 101.000 call (AAPL141010C00101000)
-OPR
0.40 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.06(13.04%) 6:06PM GMT+01:00

and the real time price of AAPL SEE BELOW

Apple Inc. (AAPL)
-NasdaqGS
99.98 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.36(0.36%) 6:26PM GMT+01:00 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #5,196
  • Oct 6, 2014 12:31pm Oct 6, 2014 12:31pm
Quoting StrayDog
.... Majority of stocks remains in their estimated move, so I will do Iron Condors, since my account size does not support naked strangles or straddles. I will do them perhaps on cheaper stocks with small historical vol. ....
I think AA fits that criteria and is a candidate for a short straddle for earnings. It didn't moved much past couple of ER's, always less than 5%.
Oct10 16 straddle is around $0.84 and monthly Oct17 around $1.00. It requires about $400 margin per one short straddle.

Profit zone for straddle overlaps ER's EM, giving a $15 - $17 area. Everything else - IC's or short strangles is much less credit.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AA_straddle.png Size: 79 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,197
  • Oct 6, 2014 1:30pm Oct 6, 2014 1:30pm
Cruel world...

Here's The Best Theory We've Heard For Why A Company That Was Worth $1.5 Billion On Friday Filed For Bankruptcy On Monday

Down over 91% today

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GTAT.png Size: 73 KB


Wanna a catch a falling knife? This one looking good.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,198
  • Oct 6, 2014 2:06pm Oct 6, 2014 2:06pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
Entered a new trade for this week on AAPL, looking for AApl to test the highs and with earnings just a couple weeks away will the aaple traders anticipate a good report with indexes, went long $101 calls for 40c and for Fridays expiration AAPL Oct 2014 101.000 call (AAPL141010C00101000) -OPR 0.40 {image} 0.06(13.04%) 6:06PM GMT+01:00 and the real time price of AAPL SEE BELOW Apple Inc. (AAPL) -NasdaqGS 99.98 {image} 0.36(0.36%) 6:26PM GMT+01:00 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
did not like the way apple is trading so I've closed out the trade for a 3c loss at 37c, will wait for a better entry

AAPL Oct 2014 101.000 call (AAPL141010C00101000)
-OPR
0.37 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.09(19.57%) 19:48
  • #5,199
  • Oct 6, 2014 2:53pm Oct 6, 2014 2:53pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} did not like the way apple is trading so I've closed out the trade for a 3c loss at 37c, will wait for a better entry AAPL Oct 2014 101.000 call (AAPL141010C00101000) -OPR 0.37 {image} 0.09(19.57%) 19:48
got my finger on the button to long puts if AAPL closes below 99.49

Apple Inc. (AAPL)
-NasdaqGS
99.49 https://s.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/ba...nt-1093278.png 0.13(0.13%) 20:51 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #5,200
  • Oct 6, 2014 3:01pm Oct 6, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} got my finger on the button to long puts if AAPL closes below 99.49 Apple Inc. (AAPL) -NasdaqGS 99.49 {image} 0.13(0.13%) 20:51 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
no trade as AAPL closed where it opened 99.62

Apple Inc. (AAPL)
-NasdaqGS
99.62 0.00(0.00%) 9:00PM GMT+01:00 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
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