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Currency Strength Journal

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Nov 14, 2014 11:35am Sep 29, 2014 7:06pm | Edited Nov 14, 2014 11:35am
100% intraday mechanical system based on Currency Strength and strict money management.

I trade USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD, NZD and all their crosses.

System:
-Each day my system gives me one currency pair to trade that shows potential strength and weakness.
-Then using the Daily ATR (14) for the chosen pair I divide the ATR number in half. I use this number to set my TP and SL from the new Daily (EST 17:00) open price.
-I place my entry 10% of the Daily ATR above (selling) or 10% below (buying) which gives me a risk to reward ratio of 1:1.5

So to sum up, at the beginning of each new trading day (EST 17:00) I place one trade with my SL and TP exactly half of the Daily ATR away from the Daily opening price. I then place a limit order 10% of the Daily ATR above or below (depending if I am buying or selling) the NEW Daily open price. This gives me a risk to reward of 1:1.5

Just before the beginning of the new day I check to see if my TP or SL has been hit. If not I will manually close the position- either with a profit or a loss.

I will place 1 trade each day (total 5 trades per week)

For this system to be profitable, all I have to do is win 3 out 5 days (win rate 60%)

System Results:
Week 1 (test week only traded 4 days)
Number of trades: 4
Win Rate: 50%

Week 2
Number of trades: 3
Win rate: 45% (one win, one loss, one manual close with 7 pip loss)

Week 3 Demo trade explorer started with $1000 capital
Number of trades: 5
Win rate: 40%
Weekly trade explorer % profit: -0.7% (I made a couple of mistakes this week which cost me)

Week 4
Number of trades: 5
Win rate: 60%
Weekly trade explorer % profit: 2.5%

Week 5
Number of trades: 4
Win rate: 25%
Weekly trade explorer % profit: -2.4%

Week 6
Number of trades: 5
Win rate: 40%
Weekly trade explorer % profit: 3.6%

Week 7
Number of trades: 5
Win rate: 60%
Weekly trade explorer % profit: 10.6%
  • #2
  • Edited Sep 30, 2014 2:22am Sep 29, 2014 7:11pm | Edited Sep 30, 2014 2:22am
EURAUD -Sell at 1.45517
SL 52 pips
TP 78 pips

ATR 130
Daily Open Price 1.45387
SL 65 pips above Daily Open
TP 65 pips below Daily Open
Entry 13 pips (10% of ATR) above Daily Open

Chart H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.png Size: 26 KB
  • #3
  • Sep 29, 2014 7:13pm Sep 29, 2014 7:13pm
ur method looks ok but the currency strength keeps changing...not saying that ur system wont work but will it be consistent...could u elaborate on how u use ur currency meter...do u set it on daily timeframe and the other settings.

Regards
  • #4
  • Sep 29, 2014 8:30pm Sep 29, 2014 8:30pm
Quoting Zondervan
EURAUD -Sell at 1.45517 SL 52 pips TP 78 pips ATR 130 Daily Open Price 1.45387 SL 65 pips above Daily Open TP 65 pips below Daily Open Entry 13 pips (10% of ATR) above Daily Open {image}
hi zondervan, have a good day. if i may, can you please tell me what is your success rate using this technique? how long have you been using this method? thanks for your reply in advance.....jack
  • #5
  • Sep 30, 2014 2:24am Sep 30, 2014 2:24am
Quoting Zondervan
EURAUD -Sell at 1.45517 SL 52 pips TP 78 pips ATR 130 Daily Open Price 1.45387 SL 65 pips above Daily Open TP 65 pips below Daily Open Entry 13 pips (10% of ATR) above Daily Open Chart H1 {image}
EURAUD

TP hit 78 pips

H1 chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.png Size: 26 KB
  • #6
  • Sep 30, 2014 2:36am Sep 30, 2014 2:36am
Quoting dennis4u15
ur method looks ok but the currency strength keeps changing...not saying that ur system wont work but will it be consistent...could u elaborate on how u use ur currency meter...do u set it on daily timeframe and the other settings. Regards
Hi dennis4u15.

Thanks for your interest. Regarding currency strength, I use my own calculations not any currency strength meter (and no I'm not going to tell you how I calculate it- but it's nothing too complicated). As far as consistency goes- I'm not sure yet. As long as I win at least 50% I will be making money.
  • #7
  • Sep 30, 2014 2:43am Sep 30, 2014 2:43am
Quoting jackenorme
{quote} hi zondervan, have a good day. if i may, can you please tell me what is your success rate using this technique? how long have you been using this method? thanks for your reply in advance.....jack
Hi jack

I'm forward testing this system at the moment. I'm not sure how consistent it is yet. I could manually backtest it, but that would take huge numbers of hours. If my forward testing is successful, the next step would be to see if someone could code a fully automated system. Thanks for your interest.
  • #8
  • Sep 30, 2014 3:34pm Sep 30, 2014 3:34pm
NZDCAD - Sell at 0.87475
SL 30.4 pips
TP 45.6 pips

Daily ATR 76
Daily open price 0.87399
SL 38 pips above Daily Open
TP 38 pips below Daily Open
Entry 7.6 pips (10% of ATR) above Daily Open

Chart H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCAD.png Size: 23 KB
  • #9
  • Sep 30, 2014 4:16pm Sep 30, 2014 4:16pm
Hello Friend,
I am Subscribed.
Bomi
  • #10
  • Sep 30, 2014 6:40pm Sep 30, 2014 6:40pm
Thanks for starting the thread. Especially interested in your selection of which pair to trade with.
  • #11
  • Edited 11:46am Oct 1, 2014 11:23am | Edited 11:46am
Quoting Zondervan
NZDCAD - Sell at 0.87475 SL 30.4 pips TP 45.6 pips Daily ATR 76 Daily open price 0.87399 SL 38 pips above Daily Open TP 38 pips below Daily Open Entry 7.6 pips (10% of ATR) above Daily Open Chart H1 {image}
NZDCAD

SL hit -30.4 pips

Chart below shows a winning trade but unfortunately the bid price hit my stop to the exact 10th of a pip (0.87779) before hitting target. So trade ended up as a loss.

H1 chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCAD.png Size: 24 KB
  • #12
  • Oct 1, 2014 2:37pm Oct 1, 2014 2:37pm
GBPCAD - Buy at 1.80520
SL 52 pips
TP 78 pips

Daily ATR 130
Daily Open price 1.80650
SL 65 pips below Daily Open
TP 65 pips above Daily Open
Entry 13 pips (10% of ATR) below Daily Open

Chart H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD.png Size: 15 KB
  • #13
  • Oct 2, 2014 1:05pm Oct 2, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting Zondervan
GBPCAD - Buy at 1.80520 SL 52 pips TP 78 pips Daily ATR 130 Daily Open price 1.80650 SL 65 pips below Daily Open TP 65 pips above Daily Open Entry 13 pips (10% of ATR) below Daily Open Chart H1 {image}
GBPCAD

SL hit -52 pips

Chart H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD.png Size: 21 KB
  • #14
  • Oct 2, 2014 4:22pm Oct 2, 2014 4:22pm
NZDUSD - Sell at 0.79097
SL 30.8 pips
TP 58.2 pips

Daily ATR 97
Daily Open price 0.79000
SL 48.5 pips below Daily Open
TP 48.5 pips above Daily Open
Entry 9.7 pips (10% of ATR) above Daily Open

Chart H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD.png Size: 18 KB
  • #15
  • Oct 3, 2014 1:33pm Oct 3, 2014 1:33pm
Quoting Zondervan
NZDUSD - Sell at 0.79097 SL 30.8 pips TP 58.2 pips Daily ATR 97 Daily Open price 0.79000 SL 48.5 pips below Daily Open TP 48.5 pips above Daily Open Entry 9.7 pips (10% of ATR) above Daily Open Chart H1 {image}

NZDUSD

TP hit 58.2 pips

H1 chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD.png Size: 23 KB
  • #16
  • Oct 5, 2014 5:03pm Oct 5, 2014 5:03pm
GBPAUD -Sell at 1.84025
SL 75.6 pips
TP 113.4 pips

ATR 189
Daily Open Price 1.83836
SL 94.5 pips above Daily Open
TP 94.5 pips below Daily Open
Entry 18.9 pips (10% of ATR) above Daily Open

Chart H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD.png Size: 20 KB
  • #17
  • Oct 6, 2014 1:24am Oct 6, 2014 1:24am
Quoting Zondervan
GBPAUD -Sell at 1.84025 SL 75.6 pips TP 113.4 pips ATR 189 Daily Open Price 1.83836 SL 94.5 pips above Daily Open TP 94.5 pips below Daily Open Entry 18.9 pips (10% of ATR) above Daily Open Chart H1 {image}

GBPAUD

TP hit 113.4 pips

H1 chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD.png Size: 21 KB
  • #18
  • Oct 6, 2014 5:16pm Oct 6, 2014 5:16pm
EURUSD -Sell at 1.26629
SL 36 pips
TP 54 pips

ATR 90
Daily Open Price 1.26539
SL 45 pips above Daily Open
TP 45 pips below Daily Open
Entry 9 pips (10% of ATR) above Daily Open

Chart H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.png Size: 17 KB
  • #19
  • Oct 6, 2014 7:36pm Oct 6, 2014 7:36pm
Quoting Zondervan
EURUSD -Sell at 1.26629 SL 36 pips TP 54 pips ATR 90 Daily Open Price 1.26539 SL 45 pips above Daily Open TP 45 pips below Daily Open Entry 9 pips (10% of ATR) above Daily Open Chart H1 {image}

EURUSD

TP hit - however price missed my entry by a couple of pips, so no trade today. Which is ok, as it shows me that my system is doing a good job of picking the right pair and direction.

H1 chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.png Size: 16 KB
  • #20
  • Oct 7, 2014 5:06pm Oct 7, 2014 5:06pm
My system didn't give me a clear currency pair to trade today. So no trade today.
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