Open Scalping Strategy

Hi Linhpip, how many trades per day (on average)? The reason I ask, looking at your graph, is the perceived bias as the month continues --- better results latter in the month. This would hold true with what traders have been saying about the first week of the month. Did you change anything of significance as you traded each day?

EG -5pips : never looked good --- double top (tightened my SL from 8pips)
[Mmmm...historically, the double tops have peaked on the 2nd top (1H TF), so a 2nd entry would be the go]

ECHF is close to entry but the price action can only be described as disgustingly lethargic

ECHF -[Too Many]pips SL (who knows how many pips? A lot!) Just noticed that there is a 4pip difference between different data - the 5M candle (an enormous spinning top) that took me out doesn't show up when compared to other data... Mmmm... started to diverge (spread!) a few 5M candles before the news [all the more reason to stay out]

Have a great weekend everyone ...

Just some statistics so far:

Week 3 (22092014) of Sep:

+25.3pips of possible 171.1pips with efficiency* 14.79% : 9 winners and 9 losers and 0 BE : negative profits

Week 4 (29092014) of Sep/Oct (Not including Fri**):

+76.76 pips of possible 242pips with efficiency 31.72% : 5 winners and 1 loser and 2 BE : positive profits

Comments: I was employing a volatility based risk/money management method in Week 3 which resulted in a significant loss even though it was a 50% win result. When I changed this to a fixed risk model things improved.

*Note: efficiency is something that I have made-up (I think?) : it is defined by using the estimate of the number of pips from entry to the first swing point or, rather, fractal (B. Williams) as the 'possible' number of pips.

**Note: if I include the 2 losses from Friday I would need to get a new bank loan

Brief Summary of Trader's Results and Comments: specific to win %

Fbird: reported a series of results including 2nd entries, comparing London, Frankfurt and Tokyo sessions. The Franfurt open proved to be the most successful ( around 70% win using AU, UCHF, GU, EU, NU over Mar-July)

Swilliam: reports win% around 70% using 1:1 Risk reward on the pairs EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, with USDCHF as a second priority

Linhpip: confirmed Fbird's & Swilliam's results by presenting details of demo results over Aug:
(EU, GU, AU - tp 10pips, sl 10pips and UChf, UCad, NU - tp 7 pips, sl 7pips) win 36 trades, loss 18 trades = 66.67% win

Nico1359: finds that reducing the TP to 5 pips increses significantly the win% to a highest estiamte of 88% AU from Jan to Aug 7. "Keeping the SL at 15 means risk/reward ratio of 3:1"

Reeeen4: reports 65.6% win on demo account

Alphac: pointed out that from 17th July until Aug 5th, GU resulted in 7wins / 17trades = 41.18%. His/her conclusion was "Looking back at this 'system' it only manages 50% at best."

Linhpip: recently confirmed Alphac's observation on a live account producing 22 win and 21 loss = 51.16% win

[Thank you to my fellow traders for all this information. If I have missed something then please let me know, thanks!]

This weeks results

GU 2xSL, 1xTP -10pips
AU 1xTP +5
EJ 1xSL -10
GJ 2xSL -20

Total: -35

Thanks griffinssoul for your summarizing analysis !

I like it !

So what do we have now ? Does this simple trading approach give a chance to win in a longer run ? Its not so clear so far - although we have quite enough votes "pro" ... but at the end of griffinssoul's post I read, that the winning rate isn't the best ?

Thanks for your comments and questions, DerBerliner. I've been thinking about this question: if you have (set) binary rules based on OCHL for Buy and Sell can they produce bias over N trades as N becomes large (where the term large means, say, over an Elliot Wave Cycle on the traded TF). The answer must surely be NO! So, from this perspective I believe the conclusion of Alphac is correct. However(!), and this is the million dollar question (), is there a bias in the temporal aspect of the set rules? Notice that the rules are defined in terms of price only (granted, there is explicit mention of 1D, 1W & 1MN TF but the rules are in a sense independent, e.g. there is nothing special about Jan or the 14th W of 2014, etc). To answer this we have a big clue in Linhpip's traded chart (I think, we need more information). There appears to be distinct "temporal" bias in the chart as shown (see images). I have to make many assumptions which may invalidate this observation but it looks to coincide with the first week of the month? If true, the temporal bias could counter the price equilibrium over a large enough number of trades. Yet, on the other hand, this could prove to be just an anomaly but previous comments of traders support this view. There are other aspects of the system that need mention, like the timing involved in setting/executing an order, should it be done when the new 1D candle starts or wait until a particular session? Fbird's findings suggest the latter.

First chart is from Linhpip's real trading account for the MN while the second is from the demo account

I am not sure it will profitable or not but must I will test it in my cent account first.Because I never be serious with demo account.
My interesting trading

Ok, traders, here we go --- the 2nd week coming off a new month heading for Tue

AU & UCAD have already setup - things to note: both @ major 1D support (typically, we are faced with false-breaks / break-outs or rebounds: very hard to deduce the consequences for this strategy). Both pairs are heading towards major round numbers: AU -> 0.86000 & UCAD -> 1.13000. Now, one thing I have learned from Udine's () thread (As simple as possible: 00 level trading) is the importance of the 00-levels. Udline exploits their "magnetic" attraction of price action in his method and we could possibly benefit from this here. There seems to be enough pip-age to these levels to grab a fist full of them.

EJ, GU, UCHF --- No Trade, UJ is also a No Trade IMO cause opens are too close

NU : bouncing off strong 1D support - if 2nd bounce then good for this method --- ranging on the 1H
AU : same as NU --- expanding triangle on the 1H, plenty of room to move into upstairs
UCAD : kind of inverted version of NU & AU --- keeping it tight as entry is around 10 pips away from support 'line' on 1D TF
EU : same general form as UCAD but looks like a bit of a break out on the 1D --- Mmmm, on the 1H TF not looking good, needs to double top false-break-out for this method(?)
EG : coming up to resistance on the 1D TF, Mmmm not sure, on the 1H we had a change of polarity around 22nd Sep, a retest false-break-out and now we are back at that level --- our entry!
ECHF : massive gap with this one which was quickly filled on the 1H TF --- our entry is resistance formerly a strong support level
GJ : same type of situation as ECHF but heading towards support

GJ & AU would have both lost on Asian session with SL < around 10pips it looks like... [London calling]
GJ --- 2nd entry looking better...only gave 9pips... AU looks like it could spring up for 2nd entry (yes, sprang up and lost its spring...LOL)... waiting game for London
NU --- creeping up, could turn before coming back for London

AU +8pips TP (SL 11pips) : got in at the 3rd entry but it was strong all the way
ECHF -8pips SL : big green candle over 15M went up hit entry then next candle came down hit SL (way over extended perhaps)
GJ +8pips TP (8pip SL) : 3rd entry, missed 1st & 2nd (would have both won )
AU +7pips TP (7pip SL) 3rd entry : nice break-out of a 3-wave correction to a bullish 5-wave impulse - strong stuff and I put a runner on it with a BE SL - still going (free pip-age) : ok I closed the runner +7pips too stuffed to wait...

Hi Griffinssoul,

English isn't my language, so maybe I can't understand clearly your post.

In August, I demo on ICmarket with very good result. (chart second). I place pending order at the morning, 7am (I'm in 7+GMT). If I miss a trade (it tped or sled) I will ignore it. If not I'll place a buy limit or sell limit. And I close all pending order at 10pm. It's sleeping time.

In September (the first chart), I trade live on ICmarket ECN with the same rule in August. With trade live, If the trade trigger, it's usually add slippage so the result isn't good like on demo.

Hope you understand. )

Trade Well.

Thank you very much Linhpip - I understand exactly what you mean. How many trades did you make in the first week of each month?

The reason I ask about the first week is that maybe it is not good for this system to trade in the first week of the month.

GJ +10pips X 2 : 1st and 2nd entries

EU & EJ's candidates, UJ opens really close? That's it for me traders, hope everyone did great,

UCad +7pips [London open] : this looks like it was the 2nd entry but the first was in the Asian session : looks like its got a 3rd entry in it maybe?

EU would have worked for SL>9pips (TP was max 17pips) but it was before the London open (might be 2nd entry?)
UJ would have worked for SL>7pips (TP was max 13pips)
UChf had 3 entries before London open

UJ +10pips [London session] : solid move down, leading up to Red News, 2nd entry
UCad -7pips SL [London session] : only gave 3.5 pips before heading north

Just a few ideas, comments, observations and a description of my concept of a SL zone that I use to quickly estimate SL and possibly identify strengths and weaknesses of a given trade.

First, I have introduced a statistic in my journal associated with the 1MN & 1W opens and the colors of the previous day and current day candle (should it trigger the trade) and all their relative positions. By the rules of this strategy all this information can be written in a compact form, e.g. M:W:G:R (the first two letters denote the Month and Week opens while the last two denote the colors of the candles) would denote a Sell trade with the previous low (previous day candle) given by a Green candle which is below the Weekly open, the Weekly open below the Monthly open. Using this one could quickly compare a WMGR with a MWRR trade etc.

I have spent a bit of time trading Udine's 00-level method (see thread here on FF) in the hope of gaining some insight into RN/BRN trading. This was a great experience and I learned a lot which will benefit this method, I think. For example, if price action is approaching a BRN from lower prices then if our entry is at a .900-level for a Buy trade this would be opposed to BRN trading rules etc.

Just an observation about comparing the Tokyo open to the London open: if the entry is triggered at the Tokyo open (win or lose) and is rejected strongly it may well come back strongly in the London open and be a good trade? I'm keeping an eye on this - the "Tokyo dip".

Finally, I have made up a SL method: on the 1H I draw a zone (I use a box shape thing) from the entry point to 3 horizontal touches of (3) candles including (at least one Close). Pulling the box to the right creates the "SL zone". In the case of a Sell trade if this zone is previous S&R then I have found it is more likely that the (current days) price action will visit the SL zone. If their is consolidation (to the left of the SL zone from the entry) through the SL zone then I expect turbulence. (I place my SL near top of this zone for a Sell trade). Side Note: in some setups there is a huge wick/shadow (doji, hammer etc) making the SL impractical. In this case I just drop to the 15M TF.

GJ -16 SL (1st entry) then +15 TP (2nd entry) : even Steven : so close! : gave 4.5 pips before retracing fast to SL (just got to SL) then 2nd entry went down to TP before a few brief re-traces. There was an approach to the entry, rejected strong, at the Tokyo open (within 20pips). SL zone was strong previous S&R on the 1H TF. This was a MWRR trade. An automated SL procedure whereby the SL moves to around (?) entry would have great benefits in scenarios like this as bounces are inevitable/expected. (Also good idea to place a runner as currently @ 75pips () and dropping. (Again, would be good to automate a procedure as when this happens it yields better R:R.)

EJ +10pips (+12pip SL) : using GJ as an indi basically, (correlated), straight down no problems - what I was hoping GJ would do. There was also an approach to the entry, rejected strong, at the Tokyo open (within a few pips). This was a MWRR trade.

Ok, that's it for me! This week was great! More trades than last week but less win% but no complaints! (Note: EG is coming up, looks over extended and no "Tokyo dip". A MWRG trade.)

9 wins & 3 lose, 52pips, efficiency = 24.42%

Have a nice weekend!

NU, EU, UCad, UChf all have very close opens (1MN & 1W TF) with respect to ATR(14) --- consolidating
UJ, GU, GJ, EJ are No Trade
EG (MWRG), EChf (MWRG) are setup but 1 x ATR from trigger