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GBP/JPY

  • #1,621
  • Edited 5:10am Oct 3, 2014 1:38am | Edited 5:10am
Quoting usasa
{quote} Hi skyhok, I have not learned the Elliott Waves, and I can see from your chart you have a good understanding of it. I was wondering why can't one go short from 175.6 till the end of the downside as per wave counting. it is a good 300+ pips. Sorry if the question is noob. usasa. Ps: I have recently downloaded the Glenn Neely and started reading it.
Well done for choosing the comprehensive Neely's EW method.

It's a personal chose to stay away from trading corrections until it is confirmed complete, simply because :
1. end of corrections = beginning of the next trending waves.
2. PA of corrections can be unpredictable and counter-trending.
Even now price movement do have alternate views - that it may do a minor retracement 61.82% and advance (in red) OR complete a final push down(in orange). Do prepare for it .

The best to your trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 13.png Size: 51 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #1,622
  • Oct 3, 2014 2:26am Oct 3, 2014 2:26am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Well done for choosing the comprehensive Neely's EW method. It's a personal chose to stay away from trading corrections until it is confirmed complete, simply because PA of corrections can be unpredictable and counter-trending. Even now price movement do have alternate views - that it may do a minor retracement 61.82% and advance (in red) OR complete a final push down(in orange). Do prepare for it . The best to your trades. {image}
​​You have a presumption that 180.6 was wave 1 and we are in 2. The alternatives are that 180.6 was C in a rising wedge and we are in D, which rarely drops below a 61.8 retracement. The other alternative is that GJ is in an expanding triangle and 180.6 was the peak, with any move now to 171x or 170.5 only bringing a wave B that fails the top before a deeper move down, with completion later in the 160 area.
  • #1,623
  • Oct 3, 2014 3:35am Oct 3, 2014 3:35am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} ​​You have a presumption that 180.6 was wave 1 and we are in 2. The alternatives are that 180.6 was C in a rising wedge and we are in D, which rarely drops below a 61.8 retracement. The other alternative is that GJ is in an expanding triangle and 180.6 was the peak, with any move now to 171x or 170.5 only bringing a wave B that fails the top before a deeper move down, with completion later in the 160 area.
Thank you for the alternate views.
That's what I like about trading threads and forums on sharing views - that if your wave count or view works, I'll hop onto it; otherwise, I'll get onto mine for the final trading decision. It's a WIN-WIN.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #1,624
  • Oct 3, 2014 3:47am Oct 3, 2014 3:47am
What exactly triggered the massive drop on October 1st actually ?
  • #1,625
  • Oct 3, 2014 3:54am Oct 3, 2014 3:54am
Quoting brokerbear
What exactly triggered the massive drop on October 1st actually ?
US News was bad. JPY pairs was falling while EUR/USD was going up.
  • #1,626
  • Oct 3, 2014 6:33am Oct 3, 2014 6:33am
Quoting MaximeCau
{quote} US News was bad. JPY pairs was falling while EUR/USD was going up.
frankly said, I don't quite follow. What does that say about the next week ?
  • #1,627
  • Oct 3, 2014 7:34am Oct 3, 2014 7:34am
NFP and US Unemployment topped estimates, this could probably fuel bulls again.
  • #1,628
  • Oct 3, 2014 7:36am Oct 3, 2014 7:36am
Quoting cdcalva
NFP and US Unemployment topped estimates, this could probably fuel bulls again.
Depends for who. For EUR/USD it fuels bears... again and again and again...
  • #1,629
  • Oct 3, 2014 7:43am Oct 3, 2014 7:43am
Quoting brokerbear
{quote} frankly said, I don't quite follow. What does that say about the next week ?

Geppy is at a strategic level now : it hesitates on the 50% retracement. Personnaly I don't see at the moment any strong bullish move... like other JPY pairs as well.
  • #1,630
  • Oct 3, 2014 9:43am Oct 3, 2014 9:43am
I'm long for 50 pips or so, unless something changes, and price rejects 175.472 again...
  • #1,631
  • Oct 3, 2014 9:53am Oct 3, 2014 9:53am
If it takes out 175.472, and approaches 175.971, will probably take profit. These are the daily/monhly pivots. Re-tested them yesterday, but I don't see enough of a rejection of them to go short yet. And I think still a chance this thing doesn't turn back for a while. But I don't expect to see any major decisive move today. Think I'll shoot for 50 (on this pair at a least), and call it a day...
  • #1,632
  • Oct 3, 2014 9:53am Oct 3, 2014 9:53am
Hmmmm. I'm thinking this is most likely to happen unless we break over 175.50
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2014-10-03 at 10.51.47 AM.png Size: 155 KB
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #1,633
  • Oct 3, 2014 9:59am Oct 3, 2014 9:59am
I agree, could go down from here. If I see a break of the channel it's been following, I'll exit my long and maybe go short...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15.png Size: 63 KB
  • #1,634
  • Oct 3, 2014 10:15am Oct 3, 2014 10:15am
Break down should commence momentarily.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #1,635
  • Oct 3, 2014 10:44am Oct 3, 2014 10:44am
No break out of the channel yet, but I think I agree with you. I've turned the bus around. Short now, after looking at H1, H4...
  • #1,636
  • Oct 3, 2014 10:59am Oct 3, 2014 10:59am
I think I've been on facebook too much lately.

I keep trying to like your posts.
  • #1,637
  • Oct 3, 2014 11:05am Oct 3, 2014 11:05am
I hopped in short on a fade of NFP from the .40 area.

looking to end the day around 174.60-ish.

that's best scenario for me, at any rate
  • #1,638
  • Oct 3, 2014 11:07am Oct 3, 2014 11:07am
Quoting XNAdam
I think I've been on facebook too much lately. I keep trying to like your posts.
ha, ha, glad I'm not the only one looking for a like button. Keep thinking I must be missing it...
  • #1,639
  • Oct 3, 2014 11:15am Oct 3, 2014 11:15am
That makes three of us. Zuckerberg has had his pavlovian way with us.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #1,640
  • Oct 3, 2014 11:32am Oct 3, 2014 11:32am
175.30 went from support to resistance from yesterday to today. I see an end of day bull push to 175.50ish.
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