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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #16,281
  • Edited Oct 2, 2014 12:36pm Oct 1, 2014 11:46pm | Edited Oct 2, 2014 12:36pm
On my post 16,222 I uploaded a Barclays report, and a ForexFactory staff told me that Barclays contact FF and they erased the file on copyright issue, it's okey. Meaby barclays look on the search engine and found that, LoL.

Quoting Deutschland
1,2661 key support level. FX Blueprint - Theme #1: Euro Pah! – Sell EUR trade-weighted, sell EUR/USD - Deutsche Bank {image} Barclays {Copyrighted materials removed} {image} {image}
Coming back to the euro, key resistance today 1,2670. I think good levels to short are:

1st plan: 1,2670
A plan: 1,2710
B plan: 1,2780
C Plan: 1,2970
Targeting 1,25 and 1,22

D Plan: Long for scalping 1,2590, with adjusted stop loss.
Strong support level on 1,2600
- - - - - - - -
The elliot wave theory suggest a rebound like the next chart, but the TRLO programme and fundamentals are quite bearish and a rebound of extreme oversold conditions plus CFTC shorts covering, would suggest a good short level. TRLO means more euros on market (bearish fundamental), FED tapering QE means less dollars on market (USD bull fundamental). Next year higher interest on Fed Funds is bullish for USD. The macro trade is to short the euro, but a rebound can happend on ECB or NFP. They key is the risk managment.
Greets.
Source of chart: http://www.roboforex.com/analytics/f...ave1-01102014/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11.PNG Size: 19 KB
Bavarian Trading FX
  • #16,282
  • Oct 2, 2014 1:10am Oct 2, 2014 1:10am
USD

It seem USD is near its end of current up-trend atm. 85.80

Important S/R level :

86.60
86.30 --- as major resistance.
85.90
85.60 --- as major support... currently hold.
85.20
85.00

However I'm expecting final push into 86/87 region once again before truly reverse on Daily & pullback Weekly,
it might happen or it might not though.
  • #16,283
  • Oct 2, 2014 4:36am Oct 2, 2014 4:36am
Close to 100 pips yesterday, damn was sure about GA drop but have missed all good entries so didnt have balls to short on that strong support, there it went extra 120 pips.
http://prntscr.com/4sbahc

EU ECB play
http://prntscr.com/4sbb37

Dollar view, basically dollar is still bullish, however its being hammered a bit on UJ and UCAD due to strenght of JPY and CAD. With that said all bull levels still hold, but pullbacks were significant, keeping eye on:
http://prntscr.com/4sbbeq
http://prntscr.com/4sbbph
http://prntscr.com/4sbbyx

GBPCHF short term weakness could begin
http://prntscr.com/4sbck8

CHFJPY has now reached my down target from previous posts call. No pending shorts got activated trough night, darn. There is still possibility of 120 pips lower for CJ.

AUD
http://prntscr.com/4sbd3o

To me GCAD is best example showing where GBP could go in short term, showing possibly down side:
http://prntscr.com/4sbdcx
  • #16,284
  • Edited 12:14pm Oct 2, 2014 8:48am | Edited 12:14pm
Missed alert on short EU by few pips ,didnt touch, still managed to get some scalp lower:
http://prntscr.com/4scx7l

All above calls going as planned. Took nice GCAD short aswell for 20 some pips.

Edit, 100 pips today, some scalps some mid terms:
http://prntscr.com/4sdt32

EDIT 2:
USD some proper rejection ,eyes on level, if fails we can have deep retracement, if holds its gona be one wierd bump and countiniation, at moment leaning more towards fail, this means trend changes on EU GU UCAD UCHF (counting AU already as changed) tomorrow if happens.:
http://prntscr.com/4sesp3
  • #16,285
  • Oct 3, 2014 1:58am Oct 3, 2014 1:58am
long term fundamental

fx mkt rates

eur-usd

1.2635 q3 14
1.25 q4 14
1.22 q1 15
1.15 q3 15
Bavarian Trading FX
  • #16,286
  • Edited 4:22am Oct 3, 2014 4:09am | Edited 4:22am
Quoting janpec1000
Missed alert on short EU by few pips ,didnt touch, still managed to get some scalp lower: http://prntscr.com/4scx7l All above calls going as planned. Took nice GCAD short aswell for 20 some pips. Edit, 100 pips today, some scalps some mid terms: http://prntscr.com/4sdt32 EDIT 2: USD some proper rejection ,eyes on level, if fails we can have deep retracement, if holds its gona be one wierd bump and countiniation, at moment leaning more towards fail, this means trend changes on EU GU UCAD UCHF (counting AU already as changed)...
Heh looks like scenario 2, wierd dollar bump. 9522 UCHF held so we are back on track for more dollar train. EU bottom test is guaranteed 2570-2590 soon. Meanwhile GU already testing on strong drop pressure, such a bottom looks very solid for bounce, could be draged by GBP strenght if current GCHF area gives bump, but it doesnt seem likely, so no longs for me on that GU bottom.

GJ short at 175.30

We are again testing key AUD area. Will take shorts if m5 weakness comes, longs are out of play due to dollar strenght and possible fakeout.
http://prntscr.com/4slyvy

Crude falling on Saudi cutting its prices, as part of ISIS oil selling and additionally nudge from west. So all in all it has major impact additionally to all already imposed sanctions on Russia. As Russian central bank is preaparing for 60$ oil prices, obviously there are some infos out there on what is in play.
Will be giving more focus on Brent next few weeks for shorts.
http://prntscr.com/4sm196
  • #16,287
  • Oct 3, 2014 7:35am Oct 3, 2014 7:35am
USD

Possible Top..

Quoting andexQ
USD It seem USD is near its end of current up-trend atm. 85.80 Important S/R level : 86.60 86.30 --- as major resistance. 85.90 85.60 --- as major support... currently hold. 85.20 85.00 However I'm expecting final push into 86/87 region once again before truly reverse on Daily & pullback Weekly, it might happen or it might not though.
  • #16,288
  • Edited 9:30am Oct 3, 2014 7:37am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting andexQ
USD Possible Top.. {quote}
Nope we just cleared all in the way for bull trend to resume. Up we go next week.


Gold next week or maybe before market close, 1200 was just breached, well there wasnt much reason for it to hold and so it wont be for any price lower. :
http://prntscr.com/4sny1z

AUD
http://prntscr.com/4snz6r
  • #16,289
  • Oct 3, 2014 9:38am Oct 3, 2014 9:38am
Hi Friends,

am on a medical congress since days without time on hands :-(


Here is my EW proposal for EU inline with what I was expecting.

The red wave 4 was only on the lower side of my expectations :-(
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_8 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 74 KB
  • #16,290
  • Oct 3, 2014 9:48am Oct 3, 2014 9:48am
Canale Grande
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_8 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 73 KB
  • #16,291
  • Oct 3, 2014 9:51am Oct 3, 2014 9:51am
EU

big picture

2 day TF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_2 Days_snapshot.png Size: 65 KB
  • #16,292
  • Oct 3, 2014 10:03am Oct 3, 2014 10:03am
EU 8h TF

the channel of the wave 3 down suggests end of wave now

but who knows with this wave down without much of retracements......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_8 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 55 KB
  • #16,293
  • Oct 3, 2014 10:23am Oct 3, 2014 10:23am
I was stopped out of my net long position ( I told about the last days) at BE

With break under the last low at 2571 I went net short again (as I told here before)

Have closed this position now @ 2514 for a gain of 55 pips

Have opend a long position @ 2512 with SL below 2440
  • #16,294
  • Oct 3, 2014 10:24am Oct 3, 2014 10:24am
Quoting infinitus
I was stopped out of my net long position ( I told about the last days) at BE With break under the last low at 2571 I went net short again (as I told here before) Have closed this position now @ 2514 for a gain of 55 pips Have opend a long position @ 2512 with SL below 2440


this stopping out was a pity, because I had simply no time to watch or think about the position due to my time schedule
  • #16,295
  • Oct 3, 2014 10:36am Oct 3, 2014 10:36am
EWI (Prechter) are silently covering their ass in regards to USD and soon enough in EU


they have shown a count since weeks, where they think, that the recent wave up in UDX and the wave down in EU is a completed wave 1 (or nearly completed)

They thought, that we would be in wave 5 of wave 1

Today in one of their outlets (Financial Forcast) they suddenly label the UDX in end of wave 3 of wave 1, and state, that they think same for EU

In another outlet today (European Financial Forecast) they see the Euro in wave 5 of 3

What a dis-service for their subscribers........
  • #16,296
  • Oct 3, 2014 11:01am Oct 3, 2014 11:01am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} this stopping out was a pity, because I had simply no time to watch or think about the position due to my time schedule
I suggested you to exit your long as it was in profits, couse my analysis told me you will be stoped at BE, not that you should listen anyone else but yourself on trading, but the moment i posted your possible exit was perfect location as it was right on supply tip where i was expecting it to dip down. Better to have pips in bag if things look too against you than riding luck onto BE SLs
  • #16,297
  • Oct 3, 2014 11:04am Oct 3, 2014 11:04am
EU 10min TF

channel ping-pong
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_10 Mins_snapshot.png Size: 39 KB
  • #16,298
  • Oct 3, 2014 11:09am Oct 3, 2014 11:09am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} I suggested you to exit your long as it was in profits, couse my analysis told me you will be stoped at BE, not that you should listen anyone else but yourself on trading, but the moment i posted your possible exit was perfect location as it was right on supply tip where i was expecting it to dip down. Better to have pips in bag if things look too against you than riding luck onto BE SLs

Hi Jan,

completely agree.

Only this morning I saw the rejection in the 2699 area and thought SHIT LOL

Could have bagged my profit in the 2655 area, but decided to take on the bet for a run towards the 2730-50 area. Now I can spell F A I L E D
  • #16,299
  • Edited 11:46am Oct 4, 2014 6:54am | Edited 11:46am
Next week charts:
http://prntscr.com/4sx8io
http://prntscr.com/4sx8xw
http://prntscr.com/4sx94o
http://prntscr.com/4sx9g0
http://prntscr.com/4sxans
http://prntscr.com/4sxbcc
http://prntscr.com/4sxbrh
http://prntscr.com/4sxc9z
http://prntscr.com/4sxchk

Some trading in fxtester during weekend, made several sessions of 50-200% acc increase. Principle is using same strategy i am using for trading markets live, but with addition on focusing entries after pinbars on key areas. So for example for short entry: bull run (trend), pullback with strong bear candle, next candle is bear pinbar enter short, SL above wick. Oposite for long. Logic behind those entries is that key areas on where pair should switch it status from bear to bull eg trend due to pressure of one side and failure of other side to defend more. That means first pairs main trend has to be identified and only follow trend, eg supply in control for shorts and oposite for longs. After controling side is established bear-bull candle of pullback and pinbar have to be spawned for entry:
http://prntscr.com/4szl4b
http://prntscr.com/4szpqp
http://prntscr.com/4szqji
http://prntscr.com/4szr1b
This isnt just useful for trading with trend but also for those who counter-trend trade can use this as signal when not to enter.
  • #16,300
  • Oct 5, 2014 2:02pm Oct 5, 2014 2:02pm
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