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Let's Trade Options

  • #5,101
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:00pm Oct 1, 2014 4:00pm
EWZ keeps sliding AH, I will be on it Thursday. If it would break $40 the $45 Jan/Nov call spread debit might be tolerably low.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,102
  • Oct 1, 2014 7:01pm Oct 1, 2014 7:01pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Did get in on the $100 puts for 34c or $34 per contract AAPL went as high as 101.54 Day's Range:100.53 - 101.54
Still this apple trade on $100 puts they went as high as 1.57 before retreating and closing at 115, I see a further slide but don't know if it will happen by Friday

AAPL Oct 2014 100.000 put (AAPL141003P00100000)
-OPR
1.15 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.68(144.68%) 8:59PM GMT+01:00
  • #5,103
  • Oct 2, 2014 12:04am Oct 2, 2014 12:04am
I have just barely scratched the surface reading up on what's been going on with the gold trade lately. Seems like it was bullish. Maybe $1,200 will hold it for some time?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,104
  • Oct 2, 2014 12:53am Oct 2, 2014 12:53am
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-tr...084552383.html

Speaking of gold, some of the miners have really been beat down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,105
  • Oct 2, 2014 5:35am Oct 2, 2014 5:35am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Still this apple trade on $100 puts they went as high as 1.57 before retreating and closing at 115, I see a further slide but don't know if it will happen by Friday AAPL Oct 2014 100.000 put (AAPL141003P00100000) -OPR 1.15 {image} 0.68(144.68%) 8:59PM GMT+01:00
Good job CG!
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,106
  • Oct 2, 2014 5:45am Oct 2, 2014 5:45am
As some of you may noticed, there is a new trader on dough, a woman called Robyn.

In this short video there is something about her...
I'm Ready to Start 10/01/2014 - Meet the newest trader on dough!

QUESTION
What I do not understand is: she said "i make 150 - 250 trades a week..." I can see that on "Bob the trader" app there is about 150 or more trades per week.
How do they do it? How is that even possible to have so many trades PER WEEK ?
How do they keep track of all of them? I used to trade stocks and had a portfolio, in the beginning it was up to 20 different stocks, but soon I realized that the best (for me) is to monitor 7 - 8 positions. So, how is somebody MONITOR 150 positions?

Only if majority of them are futures scalping ???, since they are predominantly option premium sellers... ???

Another thing - there is a "Bob the trader for IRA accounts" for only $9.99 per month. Hm....
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,107
  • Oct 2, 2014 7:25am Oct 2, 2014 7:25am
Quoting StrayDog
said "i make 150 - 250 trades a week..." I can see that on "Bob the trader" app there is about 150 or more trades per week. How do they do it? How is that even possible to have so many trades PER WEEK ? How do they keep track of all of them? So, how is somebody MONITOR 150 positions? Only if majority of them are futures scalping ???, since they are predominantly option premium sellers... ....
I hear ya. It's a lot of work. If there is a lot of scalping, though, then it's in the ballpark, I'd guess. I used to do very short tf scalping on EUR/USD and I'd do anywhere from 20 to 50 trades a day. Certainly helps when you are making repetitive trades on one or just a few instruments.

I do now make trades from multiple accounts but most of the time I will be doing the same trade from all the accounts. So, in a busy week I might be in/out of trades 20 times, but it's really usually <10 trades, some just iterations of the same thing.

OTOH, trading is not my job. I have a normal job that I spend several hours a day commuting to, plus I have a consulting business that sometimes takes up 20-30 hours a week. If I had all day every day to trade I could see doing a lot more trades.

I tried trading for a living, though. Didn't really like it. If I were much better capitalized it might be a different story. Even so, day-long screentime trading gets really old.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,108
  • Oct 2, 2014 7:41am Oct 2, 2014 7:41am
premarket I see flows out of risk-off pools - gold, bonds (TLT) - Draghi on tap likely to reinforce weak euro pro-equity sentiment. I'd bet we see a bit of a bounce in equitiea today, but maybe not much, as NFP tomorrow tends to put things on ice somewhat anyway. Strong NFP and cooldown in the exogenous influences (HK, etc) and I'd guess the equity selloff will be done, next week puts it in the rearview...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,109
  • Oct 2, 2014 7:58am Oct 2, 2014 7:58am
http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/blog...124259623.html


"2. EWZ – EWZ has declined nearly 25% in the past month, an incredibly steep decline for a country ETF. Both Brazilian stocks and the Brazilian Real have been in a straight line lower since the start of September. The Dec/Jan15 50 call calendar traded around 50k times for 0.04 midday. EWZ’s 5 year low is $38 from February."

I have had company. will be looking at Nov/Jan and Dec/Jan $50 calendars again today. I am betting EWZ is going to bounce after the elections, regardless of the result, and $50 calendars bought for $0.10-$0.20 will close for >$0.50....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,110
  • Oct 2, 2014 8:20am Oct 2, 2014 8:20am
Quoting The Fool
.... So, in a busy week I might be in/out of trades 20 times, but it's really usually <10 trades, some just iterations of the same thing. ....
Yes. I should trade more... traded maybe 1/3 of my ideas.


Quoting The Fool
premarket I see flows out of risk-off pools - gold, bonds (TLT) - Draghi on tap likely to reinforce weak euro pro-equity sentiment. I'd bet we see a bit of a bounce in equitiea today, but maybe not much, as NFP tomorrow tends to put things on ice somewhat anyway. Strong NFP and cooldown in the exogenous influences (HK, etc) and I'd guess the equity selloff will be done, next week puts it in the rearview...
Feeling the same about some bounce today... Question is how much the "other stuff" (non-US related) can move the market. Lets forget about NFP for a second. We have Ukraine, Syria, Iraq and blah blah blah elsewhere, which I do not think have much firepower left to do great damage to the market, UNLESS there would be a open war which is highly unlikely. But this thing in HK - I don't know. Because I feel that the market is more afraid of bad Chinese news than bad US news. And this is all about China. How will they "handle" this? If they exercise some kind of military response... ? How likely is that? Well, interesting times, no doubt about that.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,111
  • Oct 2, 2014 8:20am Oct 2, 2014 8:20am
http://247wallst.com/investing/2014/...k-will-double/

"DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) was started as Buy with a $5 price target at Deutsche Bank in mid-September. While the shares were at $3.00 at the time, DryShips is a and its shares closed out on September 30 at $2.47. The Deutsche Bank research on the sector was very positive at the time, with 2015 expected to be a solid year for growth across shipping. DryShips shares have traded in a 52-week range of $2.44 to $5.00. A move to the Deutsche Bank target would be just over 100% — and it is worth noting that the street-high analyst price target is that $5 target."

DRYS Jan $3 calls are $0.10...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,112
  • Oct 2, 2014 8:25am Oct 2, 2014 8:25am
Quoting StrayDog
But this thing in HK - I don't know. Because I feel that the market is more afraid of bad Chinese news than bad US news. And this is all about China. How will they "handle" this? If they exercise some kind of military response... ? How likely is that? Well, interesting times, no doubt about that.
definitely HK a bigger deal than the "old news" in Syria, Ukraine, etc. I watched US index futures take a dive into red a while ago when on the wires came news of rubber bullets and tear gas in HK.

I think it will blow over, but that's just a guess.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,113
  • Oct 2, 2014 8:29am Oct 2, 2014 8:29am
...oh, and then there's this:

https://gma.yahoo.com/ebola-patients...opstories.html
I heard Santelli say yesterday nothing spooked traders on the floor more than the ebola news...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,114
  • Oct 2, 2014 8:31am Oct 2, 2014 8:31am
Deutsche Bank was bullish on NUS also, when it starts to dive to oblivion... (don't sell this, wait for us to close ours massive positions first, dear clients...) ... just an observation.

SPY Daily Chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPY-D.png Size: 103 KB


My crystal ball of simple TA is saying that psychological round level of 190 or 1900 for SPX is also a bottom of a rising channel AND current position of 200 MA.
I can say this will not break easily, BUT if it does, next level around 184/185...
I remember from a year back period when I have traded futures, that good S/R level on ES minis was 1840 - 1850...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,115
  • Oct 2, 2014 8:40am Oct 2, 2014 8:40am
So, bears are going to rely on ebola and HK protests... with a touch of bad NFP maybe... (but wait, in which "mode" are the market... Bad news is bad or good?)

Re EWZ
On IB I have -0.04 /0.27 bid/ask spread on EWZ Nov/Jan 50 call calendar, and 0.05 / 0.17 on Dec/Jan....

Like this... I have monthlies now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ewz-calendars.png Size: 8 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,116
  • Oct 2, 2014 8:55am Oct 2, 2014 8:55am
EWZ spreads will (?) get a little better in a while.

EWZ is slipping, Jan $50 call needs to be down around $0.70...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,117
  • Oct 2, 2014 9:01am Oct 2, 2014 9:01am
Quoting The Fool
EWZ spreads will (?) get a little better in a while. EWZ is slipping, Jan $50 call needs to be down around $0.70...
If I can't get a good price on Nov/Jan I will look at Nov/Dec. Less interested in Dec/Jan - I am looking for Oct-Nov theta to help the front/back spread, especially if EWZ goes up as fast as I think it will...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,118
  • Oct 2, 2014 9:11am Oct 2, 2014 9:11am
I bought some Jan BAC $20 calls for $0.12
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,119
  • Oct 2, 2014 9:14am Oct 2, 2014 9:14am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} If I can't get a good price on Nov/Jan I will look at Nov/Dec. Less interested in Dec/Jan - I am looking for Oct-Nov theta to help the front/back spread, especially if EWZ goes up as fast as I think it will...
EWZ dropped ~ $0.50 and Dec/Jan $0.50 asks not moved at all....bastards
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,120
  • Oct 2, 2014 9:28am Oct 2, 2014 9:28am
Thinking of fading this TSLA move. I can see on dough that their traders are selling calls.
I was thinking about 260/265 Oct10 bear call spread... Just checking cojones for this
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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