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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #16,241
  • Sep 27, 2014 5:06pm Sep 27, 2014 5:06pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} It's funny what they counting. I allways scratch my head - how EW count his waves. Since 2 years EW predict 1.xx. EW is calling now bottom in place.


well, the 1.xx prediction, or 1.18, or parity, would have happened, when the masses were not so stupid to fall for Draghis "all what it takes" to safe the Euro(zone).

At round about the same time the FED came with QE3. Who could have thought that they were soooooo stupid to debase the currency even more and to create ever bigger bubbles again?

But I agree with you that many of their counts are flawed (or their reluctance to say: shit - we were wrong; or: shit - the unlikely has happened). I have read them for the past 5 years. I finally cancelled all my subscriptions because I was so fed up when I noticed, that they presented different counts in their various outlets.

Especially annoying I found the fact, that I paid for their "short term update", which comes thrice a week, but since they are also selling the speciality currency updates the counts of EURUSD suddenly started to get only very rudimentary. I can not remember when they showed last time a detailed EURUSD count in the short term updates. What am I paying for? And that is only one example of many I was not content with.

Another example is their Global market perspective. All in all that is a valuable source of information. A few months back I noticed, that they were simply recycling articles from the Financial Forcast, the European Financial Forcast etc. in this Global Market Perspective. That is annoying to read the same articles in different outlets.
  • #16,242
  • Edited 6:24pm Sep 27, 2014 6:01pm | Edited 6:24pm
janc1000 was a misunderstanding. I meant to look at the dollar in the past 25 years and compared to what draws today. The charts are above.
No, not gold guided me but see how after every crisis gold go down and the dollar rises.
China's ally the United States and I don't see how the Yuan is involved in this. The relation with Russia it's not very good from hundred of years.

China it's the reason of fall of Communist era. They changed the rules in 70' and Soviet Union don't keep the pace. IN 89' Rusia go bankrupt or not, but the world has changed dramatically in 20 years.
How China become what is it now? Who was the helping hand? US. China never will change the game, cos they are what they are now cos of US and Chinese are man of honor, they don't forget. That mean China in the end will drop this proposal with Russia.
  • #16,243
  • Edited 7:02pm Sep 27, 2014 6:31pm | Edited 7:02pm
Infinitus, It s not about stupidity, it s about profit. Simple. On the other hand in that period, if Mario don t came up with that phrase was big chances to see Europe break apart. Do you know how many world wars start from Europe? I know only 2.
I see the currencies markets not only in Waves and Levels, that is ok but if you look at what is the reason of the movement and the result, you can see the world status politically. Today I see a good future for my boy, 14 Years old. Back in 2008, I was a little worry about him.

Back in 09 10 we think about safe currencies and other non sens, but today, why the Dollar is shine?, cos of safe heaven? . No. We are in a deflationary period where US and UK are ok and rest of the world are struggling. Can be a problem, yes, but not so hard like in 2008. This can be managed in time. That why we can trade.
  • #16,244
  • Edited 1:57am Sep 28, 2014 1:19am | Edited 1:57am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} well, the 1.xx prediction, or 1.18, or parity, would have happened, when the masses were not so stupid to fall for Draghis "all what it takes" to safe the Euro(zone). At round about the same time the FED came with QE3. Who could have thought that they were soooooo stupid to debase the currency even more and to create ever bigger bubbles again? But I agree with you that many of their counts are flawed (or their reluctance to say: shit - we were wrong; or: shit - the unlikely has happened). I have read them for the past 5 years. I finally...
Das ist der Hauptgrund warum ich mich aufrege:

1. Sie verlangen für Ihre Analysen ein "schweine Geld" und counten meiner Meinung nach einen Scheiß zusammen
2. Ihre "Fehler" sehen sie nie ein wenn Sie falsch liegen (wie es Du bereits gesagt hast)
3. Prechter hat es aus meiner Sicht immer noch nicht verstanden wie ew funktioniert, d.h. er counted nicht nach den Rules die im Buch stehen. Da wird jede Kurszuckung gelabelt ohne theoretischen Hintergrund. z.B. counting 1-2 und wave 2 hat ein retrace z.B. bei 23.8% usw.
4. Ich schreibe es oft hier auf ff da ich "newbies" davor warnen möchte nicht sinnlos Geld auszugeben
5. Ich möchte behaupten, daß es einer Person nicht möglich ist mehr wie 5 Währungen pro Tag vernünftig zu counten (alle timeframes) aber sie counten fast alles was gehandelt wird. Das Ergebnis liegt auf der Hand. Früher war es vielleicht einfacher zu counten, da die charts etwas sauberer waren wie heute. Die werden heut zu Tage durch sehr viele news beeinflußt, die es früher nicht gab. Bestes beispiel ist der USDJPY gerade als er 109.45 erreicht hat wurde er nochmals auf die 109.53 durch HFT hochgejagt. So wurde es zumindest berichtet. Da wird aus meiner Sicht sehr schwierig die HFT Prozedur zu counten.
6. Ehrlich gesagt tu ich mich auch schwer den Drop zu counten, da ich nur das counte wo die Targetes auch passen z.B. 161.8% usw auf kleineren timeframes. Ich habe nichts vernünftiges counten können, und glaub mir ich habe alle Zukungen nachgemessen und komme nicht auf einen grünen Zweig. Da macht einfach dieser chart mit 261.8% einfach Sinn den Du hier gepostet hast http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1411814953 alles andere ist "Schöncounting".

Beste Grüße

Schickeria
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  • #16,245
  • Sep 28, 2014 1:36am Sep 28, 2014 1:36am
found a new EW site


http://www.elliott-today.com/eurusd.htm
  • #16,246
  • Sep 28, 2014 1:40am Sep 28, 2014 1:40am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Jan, I have my problems with seeing the Yuan as next reserve currency. Most of the Chinese economy is at this stage also smoke and mirrors. Fake cities, fake GDP, fake statistics, also relentless money printing and so on and so on. But in the end: what is not fake right now in this world?


Yuan will never ever be a reserve currency! This my view.
  • #16,247
  • Sep 28, 2014 1:47am Sep 28, 2014 1:47am
Quoting infinitus
found a new EW site http://www.elliott-today.com/eurusd.htm
thanks for sharing

only what i agree is: we dropped below 161.8% and we have to count this with 1-2 (2= 1.3700) and next extension is 261.8% as valid target +/- 10 Pips.

the 3rd 1-2 = wave 3 is never the shortest.

so what is my problem with this charts: So if this guy is short from 1.3xxx and hold his position - all is fine.

But my problem is where do this guy enter his longs for some corrective pips = on which fibo target ???? This is my qestion to the "Schöncounter"? And where do this guy add his shorts if no one Wave 4 has a target about 38,2% since drop 1.3992????
  • #16,248
  • Sep 28, 2014 2:01am Sep 28, 2014 2:01am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} thanks for sharing only what i agree is: we dropped below 161.8% and we have to count this with 1-2 (2= 1.3700) and next extension is 261.8% as valid target +/- 10 Pips. the 3rd 1-2 = wave 3 is never the shortest. so what is my problem with this charts: So if this guy is short from 1.3xxx and hold his position - all is fine. But my problem is where do this guy enter his longs for some corrective pips = on which fibo target ???? This is my qestion to the "Schöncounter"? And where do this guy add his shorts if no one Wave 4 has a target about...
So and what is the difference than about Wave 5 failure and a extended wave 5 ????

= BIG DRAW DOWN
  • #16,249
  • Sep 28, 2014 6:28am Sep 28, 2014 6:28am
Quoting barbones
janc1000 was a misunderstanding. I meant to look at the dollar in the past 25 years and compared to what draws today. The charts are above. No, not gold guided me but see how after every crisis gold go down and the dollar rises. China's ally the United States and I don't see how the Yuan is involved in this. The relation with Russia it's not very good from hundred of years. China it's the reason of fall of Communist era. They changed the rules in 70' and Soviet Union don't keep the pace. IN 89' Rusia go bankrupt or not, but the world has changed...
For sure, US had big role in proping up Chinese economy and it still has, however note one important thing, that is mostly due to China not having enough of home consuming power of middle class to consume its exports which are main drive of its economy. This is changing, at very fast peace. Middle class is growing at speed where they will be able to start transfering towards more consumption economy rather than exportive:
http://www.thomaswhite.com/images/ex...-retail-02.jpg
As abandoning Russia i dont think that will happen at any case, unless China would be threatend milatarily and would had no other choice, so if things escalate very far it might be option but other than that no. Abandoning of US dollar by China and Russia and 400 bil energy deal isnt game played by their elites, its strategic partnership China simply needs so many resources from Russia that it has to lean towards it, water, oil, gas, etc.
  • #16,250
  • Sep 28, 2014 1:47pm Sep 28, 2014 1:47pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} So and what is the difference than about Wave 5 failure and a extended wave 5 ???? = BIG DRAW DOWN


do not understand - a wave 5 can literally go everywhere. Only limitation is: when wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 can not be longer than wave 5.

Extended wave 5's are especially prominent in commodities, but can also be seen in e.g. SP500 over the course of the last months

wave 5 failure is out of my sight most of the time an error in counting. Real wave 5 failures I have witnessed especially after prolonged wave 3's, and/or when the wave 3 was super strong and fast
  • #16,251
  • Sep 28, 2014 1:51pm Sep 28, 2014 1:51pm
USD


Just established new demand zone at 85.20 - 85.60 area as reinforcement of previous demand zones established below that area,
not sure whether that demand zone already completed or not.

So I think there are 2 options from here, atm. 85.77 :

1) Continue Up targeting 86.50

2) Re-test of 85.60
if result is good then continue Up targeting 86.50 ..., if not then back down to 85.20 - 85.60 area again.

Good luck All.
  • #16,252
  • Sep 28, 2014 2:08pm Sep 28, 2014 2:08pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} thanks for sharing only what i agree is: we dropped below 161.8% and we have to count this with 1-2 (2= 1.3700) and next extension is 261.8% as valid target +/- 10 Pips. the 3rd 1-2 = wave 3 is never the shortest. so what is my problem with this charts: So if this guy is short from 1.3xxx and hold his position - all is fine. But my problem is where do this guy enter his longs for some corrective pips = on which fibo target ???? This is my qestion to the "Schöncounter"? And where do this guy add his shorts if no one Wave 4 has a target about...


there is nowhere an evidence based research that wave 3's run either exactly 161,8%, or when that is overrun, 261,8%.

In fact, especially the work of Swannell has shown, that the extensions of waves vary over a very great course.



Another point: why has the guy to enter long for a few pips anyway? We are in a downtrend on multiple TF's. If he feels better he may choose to only short the bounces and let the things sort out meanwhile. There is absolutely no need and most of the time no sense in having open positions all of the time.

Maybe it is even more wise to use the fib-targets for guiding only, but base your trades mainly on S/R or S/D considerations.

Wave 4's retrace OFTEN between 38-50% of wave 3. But this is a guideline, not a set in stone rule. How will you act for the SOMETIMES moments of market behaviour?

My EW counting tries to find the waves with the most momentum. So when waves develop, I will put the 3 under the wave with the most momentum. Oftentimes this is a good idea. Sometimes not. Then shit hits the fan and I get my spanking when I was too lose or generous with my SL

Make your mind free from the fixed fib-levels. It will simply not work in the long run. If market would have the fixed levels you are looking at, some banks with their huge research teams, or some Universities, or some of the Quants would have found this holy grail already. It simply does not exist. Would it exist, markets would stop to work, and world domination would be in one single hand shortly.

The best what we can do for us is to know the limitations of the system we use, and to know where the levels is where we are probably wrong
  • #16,253
  • Edited 3:38pm Sep 28, 2014 3:18pm | Edited 3:38pm
“The payrolls number could be huge,” said Alan Ruskin, global head of Deutsche Bank AG’s Group of 10 foreign exchange in New York. “We’ve had this stronger-dollar trend even in the midst of what was quite a disappointing payrolls number last time around. If payrolls suddenly comes out meaningfully stronger than expected, I think it would further reinforce the stronger-dollar trend.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...s-diverge.html

2 major events this week will move the dollar anyway.

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- The European Central Bank plans to release its plan for rescuing the eurozone from economic stagnation over the next several days by purchasing asset-backed securities, but faces the prospect of having to go forward without investing in riskier assets, the Financial Times reported Sunday. The publication says the bank won't take on the risk of buying such investment vehicles as mezzanine tranches without governments guaranteeing any losses. It appears Germany and France are reluctant to support such a plan, the FT says. But the ECB's purchases appear to have helped revive the zone, left stagnant by the financial crisis, the publication said.
  • #16,254
  • Edited 9:48am Sep 29, 2014 4:32am | Edited 9:48am
EU wants lower, bottoming failed:
http://prntscr.com/4re5bd

Guys nice setup on AN, it should go higher, possible deep retracement, so bigger SLs needed.
http://prntscr.com/4re6kq

XCADs show weakness.

EDIT: important changes on USD area. For first time for while EU has now broke into bull situation mid term, dollar showing significant weakness, key level still holds but if taken changes in trends are about to come mid term first:
http://prntscr.com/4resa4

EDIT2: Nevermind, dollar defended. Same plan as past 2 months back on.
  • #16,255
  • Sep 29, 2014 11:46am Sep 29, 2014 11:46am
USD


Quoting janpec1000
EU wants lower, bottoming failed: http://prntscr.com/4re5bd Guys nice setup on AN, it should go higher, possible deep retracement, so bigger SLs needed. http://prntscr.com/4re6kq XCADs show weakness. EDIT: important changes on USD area. For first time for while EU has now broke into bull situation mid term, dollar showing significant weakness, key level still holds but if taken changes in trends are about to come mid term first: http://prntscr.com/4resa4 EDIT2: Nevermind, dollar defended....
I think you are right about that..


Quoting andexQ
USD Just established new demand zone at 85.20 - 85.60 area as reinforcement of previous demand zones established below that area, not sure whether that demand zone already completed or not. So I think there are 2 options from here, atm. 85.77 : 1) Continue Up targeting 86.50 2) Re-test of 85.60 if result is good then continue Up targeting 86.50 ..., if not then back down to 85.20 - 85.60 area again. Good luck All.
Re-test of 85.60 doesn't showing good result,
anticipating pullback into 85.20 - 85.60 area

- upper boundary: 85.40/.60
- lower boundary: 85.20/.30

Both might need to be tested again..
  • #16,256
  • Sep 29, 2014 2:29pm Sep 29, 2014 2:29pm
Quoting Deutschland
1,2661 key support level. FX Blueprint - Theme #1: Euro Pah! – Sell EUR trade-weighted, sell EUR/USD - Deutsche Bank {image} Barclays {image}​ {image} {image}
interesting charts and read, thanks
  • #16,257
  • Sep 29, 2014 3:17pm Sep 29, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting andexQ
USD {quote} I think you are right about that.. {quote} Re-test of 85.60 doesn't showing good result, anticipating pullback into 85.20 - 85.60 area - upper boundary: 85.40/.60 - lower boundary: 85.20/.30 Both might need to be tested again..
Andex i have posted EDIT2 above. Dollar was completly defended, there was initial proper weakness when i first posted, but bottom demand zones turned it all back.
So still staying bearish GU EU and dollar bullish. As for EU we are just testing broad demand zone on weekly from 2012, but then again, how reliable are those old broad zones, i have no idea. I am keeping much shorter TF view on those shorts.
Short EU 2690.
  • #16,258
  • Sep 30, 2014 4:06am Sep 30, 2014 4:06am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Andex i have posted EDIT2 above. Dollar was completly defended, there was initial proper weakness when i first posted, but bottom demand zones turned it all back. So still staying bearish GU EU and dollar bullish. As for EU we are just testing broad demand zone on weekly from 2012, but then again, how reliable are those old broad zones, i have no idea. I am keeping much shorter TF view on those shorts. Short EU 2690.
Some yesterday scalps (65 pips), EU short went well i knew i should have kept TP open due to bottom break.
http://prntscr.com/4rpahl

Dollar as expected break trough high.

Argh damn GJ with all those fakeouts, hate that PA. Not trading it until it exits.
http://prntscr.com/4rpb2o
NU, landed in perfect area for longs, but bottom says no go. So waiting for some heavy bull break for longs until that not shorting not longing:
http://prntscr.com/4rpbe2
CHFJPY wants to go there, will be shorting m15 retracement:
http://prntscr.com/4rpbpf
EURAUD
http://prntscr.com/4rpcf0
  • #16,259
  • Sep 30, 2014 5:19am Sep 30, 2014 5:19am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Some yesterday scalps (65 pips), EU short went well i knew i should have kept TP open due to bottom break. http://prntscr.com/4rpahl Dollar as expected break trough high. Argh damn GJ with all those fakeouts, hate that PA. Not trading it until it exits. http://prntscr.com/4rpb2o NU, landed in perfect area for longs, but bottom says no go. So waiting for some heavy bull break for longs until that not shorting not longing: http://prntscr.com/4rpbe2 CHFJPY wants to go there, will be shorting m15 retracement:...
EJ is the same to CHFJPY??
  • #16,260
  • Sep 30, 2014 6:35am Sep 30, 2014 6:35am
the channels got much respect lately, but nevertheless they keep on getting broken

will it hold this time?


EU 2h TF
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