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  • #7,221
  • Sep 29, 2014 11:07am Sep 29, 2014 11:07am
Option Expiries today NY cut

EUR/USD: 1.2675 (169M), 1.2700 (137M), 1.2750 (417M)

1.2675 maybe a reason for the drop
  • #7,222
  • Sep 29, 2014 11:17am Sep 29, 2014 11:17am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} bullshit count with failure 5 {image}

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...#axzz3EiUNoTZO

little bit "Schwanzverlängerung" how wave 5 has been counted with a failure
  • #7,223
  • Sep 29, 2014 11:18am Sep 29, 2014 11:18am
Quoting Schickeria
DON'T FORGET THIS! WHAT Super Mario can, Yellen can do it too.... The FX market is the one area where ECB action this year has delivered immediate results. EUR depreciation undoubtedly plays a key role in the ECB's fight against lowflation. EUR weakness is approaching the half-way mark towards the unstated 1.20 target, but it is too early for the ECB to consider putting a brake on the trend. But when it comes time for the ECB to say mission accomplished, preventing EUR from overshooting beyond 1.20 is likely to prove difficult. Below 1.20, ECB rhetoric...


The FED has already done since years

Out of my view there has been now a shift in the FED - I am under the impression that they will not give another round of QE, because sometimes the dumbest Keynesian has to acknowledge, that the measurements failed to deliver the right result.

Draghi on the other side does a lot verbally, but delivers late or none. With France and Germany opposing the view, that the governments have to guarantee the bad loans eventually bought by the ECB, plus outstanding decision on this point of the European Court of Justice, plus reluctance of the banks to take more money from the ECB, plus reluctance of companies to take on even more debt etc., may run into a wall when it comes to inflating.

But all in all chances seem to be much greater for the ECB to further inflate than for the FED to further inflate.

YMHO


I would not be so fixated on seeing the Euro back above 1.399x anytime soon.
  • #7,224
  • Sep 29, 2014 11:18am Sep 29, 2014 11:18am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} USDTRY upper MOFU hold so far {image}
come on pussy drop now
  • #7,225
  • Sep 29, 2014 11:28am Sep 29, 2014 11:28am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} The FED has already done since years Out of my view there has been now a shift in the FED - I am under the impression that they will not give another round of QE, because sometimes the dumbest Keynesian has to acknowledge, that the measurements failed to deliver the right result. Draghi on the other side does a lot verbally, but delivers late or none. With France and Germany opposing the view, that the governments have to guarantee the bad loans eventually bought by the ECB, plus outstanding decision on this point of the European...
we will see...... fundamenal steht Europa 100x besser da als Amerika!

Deutschland wird Draghi's BlaBla niemals unterstützen und wie er es schon gesagt hat - er hat seinen Teil getan und der Rest sollte politisch erledigt werden.

but i don't trade nothing fundamental only what i see on charts
  • #7,226
  • Sep 29, 2014 11:41am Sep 29, 2014 11:41am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Edit {image}
Edit again 1.2724/7 area on the cards
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  • #7,227
  • Sep 29, 2014 11:58am Sep 29, 2014 11:58am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} USDTRY is allways nice the last one was here from 2.500 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1391166842
IS on turkish boarder http://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/a...auffahren.html
  • #7,228
  • Sep 29, 2014 12:00pm Sep 29, 2014 12:00pm
good night
  • #7,229
  • Sep 29, 2014 2:17pm Sep 29, 2014 2:17pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} shit it looks like as EU want 1.2560-50 before any bullish upmove covering some here 1.2705
True, was S/o as well, but stops were slightly green.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #7,230
  • Sep 29, 2014 2:32pm Sep 29, 2014 2:32pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} True, was S/o as well, but stops were slightly green.
EU the old pussy = sideways now

what is next

1.2660-50

or

1.2715-25

Schlitzis has to trade triangle

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,231
  • Sep 29, 2014 3:54pm Sep 29, 2014 3:54pm
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Yes, would feel way better about my call if wasn't s/o with one mf pip, and now 110 pips up on that failed short. Well, well. EU: decision now, the little bull mofu was respected (took a little profit there on my short), if we go to 2731 we would have a first working bull setup...
it looks not so good for bulls atm...

often wee see before news a rally - maybe before draghi speek on thursday for a drop to 1.2503
  • #7,232
  • Sep 29, 2014 5:32pm Sep 29, 2014 5:32pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} we will see...... fundamenal steht Europa 100x besser da als Amerika! Deutschland wird Draghi's BlaBla niemals unterstützen und wie er es schon gesagt hat - er hat seinen Teil getan und der Rest sollte politisch erledigt werden. but i don't trade nothing fundamental only what i see on charts
wie kommst denn Du darauf, oder woran machst Du das fest?

But anyway - we are running towards deflation - since most debt worldwide is denominated in USD, this alone should be very positive for USD
  • #7,233
  • Sep 30, 2014 1:15am Sep 30, 2014 1:15am
Hi,

Fundamental: Die Verschuldung der Amis ist extrem im Vergleich zu Europa, da ist Europa mMn bestens aufgestellt im Vergleich zu den Amis. Wir haben nur das Problem, daß die Amis sich immer mehr in unsere Angelegenheiten einmischen u.a. uns ehemalige Goldman Sachs Politiker installiert wie Monti in Italien, Draghi etc. die alles kaputtmachen in Europa. Siehe nur die kleinen Brandherde wie Detroit und Californien an = Zahlungsunfähig. Detroit war mal eine Vorzeigestadt und heute ist Sie eine Geisterstadt. Pleite ist das Eine und das schlimmste ist, die Bürger können nicht mal die Wasserrechnungen bezahlen und 40% der Bürger bekommen zur Zeit kein Wasser geliefert.http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrich...wasserhahn-zu/ Da brauchen wir die 6.1% der Arbeitslosenqote nicht diskutieren - was sind das dann für Jobs, wenn man nicht mal überleben kann ??? Das einzige was den Amis den Arsch retten kann, ist die Wracking Ölförderung. Mittlerweile sind sie die Nr. 2 der Ölproduzenten Weltweit. Der Kreditkartenwohlstand in den USA ist eine Blase gewesen und wird es bis heute noch sein. Der Konsum der Amis zur Zeit (hier Grafik von Scott : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...46#post7750246) sagt schon alles. Das ist der Frustspiegel der Bürger in Amerika zur Zeit.

Die Schwächung des Dollars hat schon lange begonnen. Siehe Hier ein netter Bericht: http://de.ria.ru/business/20140813/269277308.html. Russland und China haben vereinbart das Öl und Erdgas nicht mehr in Dollar abzurechnen. Ab heute kann der Yuan vs. EUR an den Interbanken gehandelt werden - das ist ebenfalls eine Schwächung des Dollars. Die USA führen nicht mehr so viele Kriege wie früher, da sie sich das einfach nicht mehr leisten können. Heute werden Kriege auf dem Finanzmarkt geführt. Das ist effektiver und billiger. Ein Teurer Dollar ist Gift für die Wirtschaft in den USA, das werden sich die Amis definitiv nicht gefallen lassen. Die Schweizer sind ja auch noch da, die den Kurs von 1.20 verteidigen wollen.

Wie auch immer 1.24xx is on the cards long term.
  • #7,234
  • Sep 30, 2014 1:38am Sep 30, 2014 1:38am
Quoting Schickeria
Hi,
I do not agree, a too german point of view in my opinion. Look at immigration and demographics, plus oil. Even the political process is working better (but badly). Having the reserve currency of the world helps as well. Additionally, while the US could somehow get along just fine on their own, the EU is in the middle of it, borders to Africa and Asia. But looks who's got the military to uphold integrity against adversaries...But all this is not tradable, I guess ().
Fail better.
  • #7,235
  • Sep 30, 2014 1:40am Sep 30, 2014 1:40am
Just found out what the scriptblocker does: no smileys, no option to edit a posted post... (above shoud say: But look who's...)
Fail better.
  • #7,236
  • Sep 30, 2014 1:43am Sep 30, 2014 1:43am
G'day from downunder Bavaria

EU 2 scenarios for today (if 1.2664 hold)
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  • #7,237
  • Sep 30, 2014 2:01am Sep 30, 2014 2:01am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} I do not agree, a too german point of view in my opinion. Look at immigration and demographics, plus oil. Even the political process is working better (but badly). Having the reserve currency of the world helps as well. Additionally, while the US could somehow get along just fine on their own, the EU is in the middle of it, borders to Africa and Asia. But looks who's got the military to uphold integrity against adversaries...But all this is not tradable, I guess ().
Die demografische Entwicklung ist das größte Problem Deutschlands und die größte Hürde. Wo ich die Kretze krieg ist die scheiß Globalisierung. Globalisierung ist Volksverarsche. Die nächste Frage ist: WIEVIEL konsum braucht eine Wirtschaft ???? Ich denke wir haben alles in GER wirklich alles, und das was für Kaufen ist meistens sinnlos bzw. was wir noch alles kaufen sollen (u.a. Häuserdämmung, Autos mit der entsprechenden Umweltplakette etc....). Solange es die Politiker nicht verstehen, das die Schulden gebremst werden müssen und der Konsum begrenzt ist werden wir immer Probleme haben. Wir werden durch die niedrigzinsphase zwangsenteignet und werden zum sinnlosen Konsum durch die Politik gezwungen!
  • #7,238
  • Sep 30, 2014 2:04am Sep 30, 2014 2:04am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} I do not agree, a too german point of view in my opinion. Look at immigration and demographics, plus oil. Even the political process is working better (but badly). Having the reserve currency of the world helps as well. Additionally, while the US could somehow get along just fine on their own, the EU is in the middle of it, borders to Africa and Asia. But looks who's got the military to uphold integrity against adversaries...But all this is not tradable, I guess ().
do you know the US Interest Rate from 1980 from Dollar and now ??? Das war mal wirklich eine Währung!
  • #7,239
  • Sep 30, 2014 2:43am Sep 30, 2014 2:43am
Quoting LarryDarrell
the EU is in the middle of it, borders to Africa and Asia.().
btw this is the reason I think Europe is well served by globalization, indeed we profit from it. And Germany would be in no end of trouble without global trade: nobody to buy our stuff, nobody to give us the desperatly needed raw material... I personally think more co-operation and globalization is the way to go.I just wanted to point out that in my point of view the fundamental picture in the US is better. They seem to have a clue where they want to be in the world, we in Europe don't. I think that Merkel summed it up just fine: Europe has 7% of world population, 25% of GDP and 50% of welfare spending. Something is wrong with the picture...
Fail better.
  • #7,240
  • Sep 30, 2014 3:46am Sep 30, 2014 3:46am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} shit it looks like as EU want 1.2560-50 before any bullish upmove covering some here 1.2705
1.2560 hit so far and 1.2661 is past

it looks like some trader TP here
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