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it's a small matter

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  • #101
  • Sep 4, 2014 11:45am Sep 4, 2014 11:45am
Hayseed, how did you get your EA? You developed it yourself?

Congrats on your euro shorts… You're the man..
  • #102
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:00pm Sep 4, 2014 3:00pm
Quoting Ck87
Hayseed, how did you get your EA? You developed it yourself? Congrats on your euro shorts… You're the man..
//----

hey ck..... thanks...... everything i use is written by me...... most of the trade sending ea's are of little value now that ibfx has made the move a few weeks ago to observing nfa's fifo rule.... they will not work with fifo....

having to rethink and recode everything......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #103
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:12pm Sep 4, 2014 3:12pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- hey ck..... thanks...... everything i use is written by me...... most of the trade sending ea's are of little value now that ibfx has made the move a few weeks ago to observing nfa's fifo rule.... they will not work with fifo.... having to rethink and recode everything......h
You manage these trades manually tho?
  • #104
  • Sep 4, 2014 5:57pm Sep 4, 2014 5:57pm
Quoting Ck87
You manage these trades manually tho?
//----

hey ck..... for the most part ea's manage the trades.... some will actually close the trades on their own...... others might just suggest, via push notifications, that trades be closed.....

the exception would be my etradefx accounts which do not use metatrader..... all trades are placed and closed manually but the decisions to come from metatrader via push notifications.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #105
  • Sep 4, 2014 9:15pm Sep 4, 2014 9:15pm
did not read what draghi had to say, but it must have been another, 'whatever it takes' speech.... what it take will be time...... and plenty of it.....
//-----

were todays eur moves over done..... maybe so.... possibly so..... hopefully so.....

a 50% retrace of the latest daily 12,5,3 zigzag is not a long shot..... roughly speakin that would only be 300 to 400 pips on eurcad, euraud and eruusd.... about 170 pips on the eurnzd.... and only 60 pips for the eurgbp which is a world all it's own.....

it would really surprise me if the last daily swing high on any of those pairs was broken...... as long as we kept our average price above the 50% retrace value, we should be able to slowly add new positions on the 240 charts swing highs.....

rallys will come...... i see those as opportunities.....h
//-----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD 50.png Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 50.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD 50.png Size: 57 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD 50.png Size: 59 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP 50.png Size: 73 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #106
  • Sep 4, 2014 9:30pm Sep 4, 2014 9:30pm
average price..... will only work correctly if all trades are in the same direction..... ie, no hedging...... should compile in all mq4 platforms......h
//----
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 average price.mq4   4 KB | 495 downloads
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #107
  • Sep 4, 2014 11:22pm Sep 4, 2014 11:22pm
Quoting hayseed
did not read what draghi had to say, but it must have been another, 'whatever it takes' speech.... what it take will be time...... and plenty of it..... //----- were todays eur moves over done..... maybe so.... possibly so..... hopefully so..... a 50% retrace of the latest daily 12,5,3 zigzag is not a long shot..... roughly speakin that would only be 300 to 400 pips on eurcad, euraud and eruusd.... about 170 pips on the eurnzd.... and only 60 pips for the eurgbp which is a world all it's own..... it would really surprise me if the last daily swing...
Thanks for turning me on to the ZigZag ... . Far more agile and indicative of price turns than pivot points ... .

Unfortunately, Draghi took out my EUR/NZD short carry trade positions that I was looking to earn some more positive swap on, so I need to start over accumulating those short positions again ... . It naturally might be a few days before everything sinks into the market ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #108
  • Sep 5, 2014 5:05am Sep 5, 2014 5:05am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
so I need to start over accumulating those short positions again ...
//----

hey zebra..... we'll get that chance.... the bnz will probably start squwakin about the nzd being overvalued before long..... it's not...... but they will...... should give us some good entry points.....

look for entrys where the 240 zigzag is 50% longer than it's average length..... av zigzag 240 eurnzd length is roughly 122..... so focus on 170 to 200+.......
//------

10 standard eurnzd lots run about 3k a month in swap..... i see a day in the not too distant future where 9k a month will be made in swap alone...... so lookin at the bigger picture, there's no point jumpin back in till the gamblers test the depth of the water......

i'm going to ease back in.... or maybe close my eyes and jump...... not sure which...... it's a gamble either way..... h
//-----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd 240 50.png Size: 68 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #109
  • Sep 5, 2014 6:48am Sep 5, 2014 6:48am
I'll have to start looking at what part of my ROI is attributable to swap ... . Generally, I trade in direction of positive swap, especially when it comes to AUD and NZD. I've looked at a couple other pairs to take advantage of this, but they involve odd per pip cost or increased margin usage ... . (Had a small USD/RUB last week off a historical high for the pair just to spice things up; have been eyeing EUR/TRY for a good short set-up, but that's another one where I would have to go in proportionally small since it's a big margin eater ... .)
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #110
  • Sep 5, 2014 1:00pm Sep 5, 2014 1:00pm
hmmmmm..... looks like ibfx is throwing in the towel..... this was posted on fxcm site minutes ago......

had high hopes of hitting first place..... just foolish games to begin with.....

it's a small matter.......h
//-----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: foolish games.png Size: 261 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: goner.png Size: 261 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #111
  • Sep 7, 2014 6:37pm Sep 7, 2014 6:37pm
merged a couple small accounts into this one in preparation ibfx kicking us out......
//------

vegas tunnel shot...... or perhaps it's more like an english channel tunnel long shot..... will give it 2 weeks..... +/- 14 days.......h
//-----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vegas.png Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbpdaily vegas.png Size: 60 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Vegas Currency Daily 1 Hour.mq4   6 KB | 482 downloads
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #112
  • Sep 7, 2014 6:56pm Sep 7, 2014 6:56pm
+/- 1000...... or 2......h
//-----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpydaily.png Size: 51 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #113
  • Sep 7, 2014 7:45pm Sep 7, 2014 7:45pm
Quoting hayseed
+/- 1000...... or 2......h //----- {image}
I thought about hopping on the train at that particular stop, but am going to wait a day or so to see what Cable is up to. Seems like the reaction to the Scottish independence poll results are a bit overdone, but I'll probably regret not hopping on here if there is the bounce I kind of expect ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #114
  • Sep 9, 2014 5:01pm Sep 9, 2014 5:01pm
Crunched some numbers on ROI/profits attributable to swap; turned out to be around 3.34%, even though I hold the vast majority of my positions for less than a week ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #115
  • Edited 2:15pm Sep 19, 2014 1:53pm | Edited 2:15pm
Wow, this FIFO thing has become pretty unwieldy, I just had a trailing stop on one order wipe out three trades, with two at a loss, this never would have happened before like this- I saw an earlier post from Liviu and I tried searching but didn't see one so here's a petition to the White House for repealing NFA rule 2-43(b) which covers offset (hedging) transactions and FIFO:

http://wh.gov/ilWF8


please spread the word and I wish everyone the best- Thanks-
  • #116
  • Sep 26, 2014 6:42pm Sep 26, 2014 6:42pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- hey zebra..... we'll get that chance.... the bnz will probably start squwakin about the nzd being overvalued before long..... it's not...... but they will...... should give us some good entry points..... look for entrys where the 240 zigzag is 50% longer than it's average length..... av zigzag 240 eurnzd length is roughly 122..... so focus on 170 to 200+....... //------ 10 standard eurnzd lots run about 3k a month in swap..... i see a day in the not too distant future where 9k a month will be made in swap alone...... so lookin at...
The "squawking" has come to pass ... .

Well, looks like we're going to have that chance again, but things need to settle somewhat. Amazing how the BNZ can just wave a wand and talk down the currency:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR:NZD 4H.jpg Size: 132 KB


Will be interesting to see how low the Kiwi goes ... .

I've been meaning to ask whether your exits from positions are discretionary or whether your EA suggests those as well (via push notifications) ... . I've pretty much been just looking at the ZigZag, setting my entry orders/targets based on those and then managing the net position ... which is pretty much how I work with FIFO. I look for a positive for the net position, preferably at a price extreme identified by the ZigZag.

I've tried peeling pieces off, but it makes my brain hurt to think about if I peel off the first leg (which may or may not be in profit), what should I look at as a target for the remaining net position and such ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #117
  • Sep 28, 2014 6:32am Sep 28, 2014 6:32am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I've been meaning to ask whether your exits from positions are discretionary or whether your EA suggests those as well (via push notifications) ... . I've pretty much been just looking at the ZigZag, setting my entry orders/targets based on those and then managing the net position ... which is pretty much how I work with FIFO. I look for a positive for the net position, preferably at a price extreme identified by the ZigZag. I've tried peeling pieces off, but it makes my brain hurt to think about if I peel off the first leg (which may or may not...
//----

hey zebra..... today is a very very good day to look at alirajaie's list of live explorers..... pay esp attention to his first account xxx26..... he is almost certainly using a expert advisor with zigzag as entrys..... it would not surprise me if he knew azmel ainul .......

zigzag is a reversion to mean type system...... it works best if someone can handle adding to losing positions...... rarely will the drawdowns be of ali's current size, the bnz memo has worked against him here..... but still, there will be large drawdowns..... the weak link in 'mean reversion' systems is us..... can we handle a 70k ++ drawdown......

my exits were based on the average zigzag length of the timeframe the trade was made on..... fifo completely destroyed that method.... virtually none of my pre-fifo ea's will trade effectively now.....

my goal over the next few months is to move away from mt4's focus on individual trades...... the ea's must be rewritten to focus on a summation of trades, such as fxcm's marketscope and metatrader 5 use......

for some reason i do my best work during deer season which starts in just 6 days here..... so if you see a deer stand with a gun pointing out one window and a laptop in another, don't knock..... i'll be hard at work...... or asleep......h
//------
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 451.png Size: 63 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 451 d.png Size: 59 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #118
  • Sep 28, 2014 3:13pm Sep 28, 2014 3:13pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- hey zebra..... today is a very very good day to look at alirajaie's list of live explorers..... pay esp attention to his first account xxx26..... he is almost certainly using a expert advisor with zigzag as entrys..... it would not surprise me if he knew azmel ainul ....... zigzag is a reversion to mean type system...... it works best if someone can handle adding to losing positions...... rarely will the drawdowns be of ali's current size, the bnz memo has worked against him here........
Thanks for the info ... . I've been stuck with FIFO for quite some time, so I operate on net position profitability (which may consist of several legs, entries for which have been taken over a period of time at price extremes). I frequently add to what would ordinarily be called "losing positions" at price extremes, assuming that the prevailing trend/range that got me into the trade in the first instance remains in place. The intratrade drawdown for me is managed by either extremely small legs (<.5 x equity) and/or having trades open in 5 or less pairs at one time, with an attempt at minimal currency correlation for open trades.

I've looked at Alirajaje's explorers, but kind of passed over them previously because it looks like he hedges ... . The guy obviously has bigger balls than I do; I had to bail out of my Kiwi long positions; the intratrade drawdown got a little rich for my blood ... .

Post pictures of any Boone and Crockett trophies you bag ... . Ain't many left in these parts (Iowa).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #119
  • Sep 28, 2014 11:13pm Sep 28, 2014 11:13pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Thanks for the info ... . I've been stuck with FIFO for quite some time, so I operate on net position profitability (which may consist of several legs, entries for which have been taken over a period of time at price extremes). I frequently add to what would ordinarily be called "losing positions" at price extremes, assuming that the prevailing trend/range that got me into the trade in the first instance remains in place. The intratrade drawdown for me is managed by either extremely small legs (<.5 x equity) and/or having trades open in...
Also need to rethink my timeframe for my carry trades ... . Was using 4H or less; now I'm thinking the Daily if this volatility stays around for long ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #120
  • Sep 29, 2014 12:39am Sep 29, 2014 12:39am
Hi hayseed

I have spent hours reading your stuff and checking your indis.. you are wealth of knowledge so I have to ask......

I was watching your videos ( your little girls sound cute and smart ) and you were using Fahrenheit 451 indi in one of them. I have searched for but can not find... is it available or your private property ?
Also your average zigzag length ? is it based on 12, 5, 3 or do you use other values.. sorry to ask so many questions but I am very interested

Thank you for your time.

cheers
hannele
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