The Club!

@janpec1000 - I need to tell you that I appreciate your work and writings around here. Thank you!

1,2661 key support level.

FX Blueprint - Theme #1: Euro Pah! – Sell EUR trade-weighted, sell EUR/USD - Deutsche Bank

Barclays {Copyrighted materials removed}

thanks for sharing my friend

EU

EW count 6h TF


on the chart you see a suggestion, that the wave blue 3 may soon be over. That is my alternative count.

Regarding my main count:

In light of alternation, the wave red 4 should retrace deeper, since the red 2 was not retracing deep. Also red 4 should be time consuming.

On the other hand, I would like to see, that the black base channel is not up-side broken.

EU

funnily enough, Prechter in his latest short term update, thinks, that the whole wave down from the 399x top is a nearly completed impulse

Speaking in terms of my chart, he thinks that we are in wave blue 5

Pity is, he hasn't shown a detailed count for that since weeks.

Would be interesting to know, what they have counted in their speciality currency service. My experience with this in the past was, that their counts in their various outlets differ a bit (or much) often times. I think that is a tactic to say later "we were right".

I admired the work of EWI/Prechter in the past for their great research and interesting analysis. But I think that their counting or forward-conclusion often enough sucks.

Example given:

a) since years one can read in nearly every second issue that SP500 would be near end of trend and that it shall drop to meaninglessness. OK, I can understand, that with all the money printing it was hard to estimate. By looking at a SP500 chart it seems to be nearly impossible to come up with a high probability count. But what is the reason to not say so? Where is the problem to say: "I am unable to meaningfully count this shit?"

No they sound like a broken clock which is also right two times a day. Prechter issued last week an issue of EW-Theorist calling the top in SP500.Question is: how often has he done it before? But in the future they will only boast about this call.......


b) the EURUSD

when price was around 34x-33x they thought, that it would be the end of wave 3 down. Maybe you can remember me saying, that I did not think to have seen wave 3 because of low momentum in the proposed wave 3.

Then they thought of end of wave 5 in the 31x area.


Since then they are promoting the idea of an imminent bounce because of daily trader sentiment (DSI) of below of 5% or so.


Interestingly enough, Prechter once told, that in a wave 3 the sentiment can stay at extreme low levels for a prolonged time.

I believe we are in C wave on dollar index

nice

long term EW count of EU

2 day TF

look at the brutal wave red B

it dropped over 3000pips without much of a retracement


so far our recent wave down has dropped around 1300pips

JFYI

Agree with 1.10 view. Nice charts and analysis. Judging monthly EU structure as bearish is premature a bit, but calling USDX bull structure is OK even though main resistance is holding it wont for long. So if Dollar breaks, EU has to go down.

Charts, 2 TF pictures on some pairs:
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Yep good point, checking chart all the way back in history its normal to have jagged supply demand action on EU especially, and last 2 months its completly unique.
And people were saying EU is not worth trading anymore becouse there is no proper trends anymore hehe. I was agreeing on that but couldnt be more wrong regarding trends.

Yes, the same move only this time come after a VERY Long Ending Diagonal (in theory, after that, big movement) . That was necessary politically first. Trust.

The drop from 2009 came after the big First Major Intervention. If it would not have happened (Bernanke first QE who move the markets almost close to the start of the drop from 2008 on all the markets), world war should be the last solution.
Nobody believe instead that this recession will be with only 1 leg if war was not in the cards that time.

Now, we have a different story. We trade economic situations like in old times. Now, S&P its up and not related with Euro drop like in 2009 and 10.

That why the Euro can go down now with no fear of disintegration of Europe, Yen can go down for economical reasons and the Dollar and GBP will rise cos of good recovery and already good inflation. The correlations from 2008 till 2013 are broken.

The speed of last drop in Euro came by the plan. The timing was perfect and I hope to see also this week a new leg down on ECB conference. That will keep the Euro on Impulse, another 3 waves down from 2 November next week. If not, then we know that a correction will come and I will buy the Pound cos it s screaming for.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Russia Discovers Massive Arctic Oil Field Which May Be Larger Than Gulf Of Mexico


shall we get used to black ice in the future?

Can hardly imagine what may happen, when we experience an oil spill in the Arctic sea

It's funny what they counting.

I allways scratch my head - how EW count his waves.

Since 2 years EW predict 1.xx.

EW is calling now bottom in place.

Bottom in Dollar.

I see a 5 year bull trend and can be a big bottom in this case and yes, can be 1 x x ... from 25 years view
IF we correlate with the Gold ....

Possibly, however mind that major oil spills in past 20 years were planned ahead by few people to profit from them, mostly by BP majors, and thats mostly due to impact on economy overall they had not economic disaster they created. So with that said oil spills in north are less likely to happen, than in other oil areas of pumping. What i am trying to say is that oil drilling in Gulf has nothing to do with increasing chances of oil spilling, its planned and executed (or permited) by few people in control. There is thousands of evidences for this i am not making this up, anyone can research it. Oil spills are more likely to happen in areas where there is severe threat to economy, lifestyle, biolife where those who permit it let if happen. One needs to dig deep to find that truth, but good thing is that truth is avalible to everyone on internet, for now.


Barbones completly agree, very good view. Price structure, fundamnetals all agree with what you posted there, one exception though, Russia and China planning new reserve currency, that means, by no chance i belive this can go 25 years. If it goes 25 years, it means nuclear war has happened, and then it wont go 25 years, it would go 100 years or more of dollar domination. Without it, dollar will be gone, soon, defenetly before 25 years.
There cant be two reserve currencies at once, dollar is only strong due to bombing ass of every human that stands against it, and petroyuan is there to be replaced as currency that has demand from exports and gold backing (soon) so thats double takeover. So for dollar to countiniue that past 3 months rally (including rates hike) they need to get rid of yuan, that can happen only in 1 way.

Additionally, never use gold price charts to back any of your economical anysis ever. You have good base, if you use gold price chart you destroy it completly.Current Gold price is fictional, being driven down trough many reasons and instruments. Using gold price/ M0,1,2,3 money supply will let you make wrong predictions and analysis. If you want to derive gold price against other financial assets combine proper gold fiancial structure of assets paper/ phy and only then make your analysis.
In any case do not compare dollar to gold at 1200 USD price its as fictional as Avatar is. Controling money supply means ability to control any financial asset in world, especially in 21 century, with reserve currency strong and big as dollar is. All assets are in bubble, stocks, bonds, gold whatever. Never use gold stock or bond prices to value analysis against dollar becouse its scewed trough dollar, derivates, euro and other assets.


Btw here is why i dont hold any optimism for China being new worlds empire coming from ashes of America:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...n-it-hong-kong
Dollar to go downhill is needed for economy restart , and war empire to end, but holding hope in China-Russia as solid trusted nation-system is probably fiction.
Well not probably, but has been proved over past few years that is a fiction. History of mankind does it so over 1000-2000 years aswell. Its just human pattern, and chances for those who control it is just high enough to pass into it. In the end all we can do is to preapare for economical collapse by investing properly which is mostly what its this all about and then for rest we cant do much, since proportionally balance of humans of indoctriantion vs realization is 9:1. War or eco collapse, one of those will come, as it always has in past.

Rosneft with Exxonmobil Corp.

Hi Jan,


I have my problems with seeing the Yuan as next reserve currency. Most of the Chinese economy is at this stage also smoke and mirrors. Fake cities, fake GDP, fake statistics, also relentless money printing and so on and so on.

But in the end: what is not fake right now in this world?

I think Schickeria was talking about the EURUSD