The Club!

Apologies, I have mistaken with the colors...

No problem, should have provided 3 charts this morning but was in a hurry :-(



All in all:

as discussed over the weekend here in this thread, market has pushed price below the most watched 2750 level - surprise surprise :-)

As argued: when all are eying the same level the "unthinkable" will happen.


But such levels then oftentimes get tested from the underside.


BTW: the 2695 was a very important Murrey Math level. It is the 4/8 pivot on monthly and weekly TF, also the 0/8 level on daily and 4h TF (p=32). It was hit to the pip. If broken, we may visit 2207 soon.

GJ is in very ugly area. It has many fakouts on bull and bear side so i am staying out of trading it. Even if certain areas are breached its still no "guarantee" for direction so best to avoid for now.
http://prntscr.com/4q5bp0

Gold
http://prntscr.com/4q5ebx

Aj
http://prntscr.com/4q5f2g

UJ
http://prntscr.com/4q5ftn

Lavanda for EJ i stay out of trading it along with all JPY pairs as its right in good demand zone and makes little sense to short here unles some scalps, and for longs there are still no confirmations so view is still bearish until something changes, but not worth shorting in it.

workingforex, gold yes still down, from my perspective there are many ways how referendum could impact price, but important is that what matters the most is reaction after it that will tell exactly what has happened. For trading itself i think its very much worth placing longs ahead of it, becouse it can be hardly bearish in any scenario unless its voted no which i really dont think it will be, unless the goverment presents some fear mongering, just like UK did for Scottland referndum and scare people of. This is very much possible, for example explaining how much of bad (fake or real) consequences it would have on economy, monetary policy etc. So basically we need to see week before actual refernedum what will be situation politically and media wise. But mind that one cant compare Switzerland to Scottland, past referendum result voting was completly different in those two countries regarding many things, thats why its possible to see yes vote.
But as for actual impact on price, here is what i think it can happen. First of all if vote is yes and they need 20% gold backing in vaults, first it comes problem that there might not be enough gold in their vaults, which means that west would supply it trough -supply only no demand- trade like usual, for example French or UK delivering tonnage required selling it on "market" to Switzerland which would cause big price drop of Gold, eg 500 pips-2000 or more. This is one of only bearish possibilities i see but it can defenetly happen, however important is that this will happen after referendum which means that initial price impact would still be bullish from vote result most likely. Second possible scenario could be that they have enough gold (this also counts for scenario 1) but they would have to get ridd of EUR-CHF 1.20 peg. Simply becouse they have been printing tons of CHF since 2008 to maintain peg, and once you ahve gold tied into money supply its just not possible anymore, unless you expand gold supply aswell. So that means that west could start draining gold even more to not just supply China but Switzerland too, becouse i am pretty much sure they will do all needed to maintain 1.20 EUR peg otherwise dollar and EUR decline would just get very fast boost (offering CHF as safe haven). This scenario means that we are just moving towards gold yuan at even faster peace. There is third scenario, wihch means Switzerland has actually enough gold not just for 20% "backing" but also to keep expanding monetary base as much as needed and has enough gold to do so, which would eventually have muted long term response.
No matter what if yes is voted on referendum we are just moving faster in other countries towards gold standards.

Most likely, but lets see how long, we are already building for another breaktrough. Technically speaking, there is no reason for USDCHF to go further 150 pips higher along with UJ as long as there are no cracks in this trend, which means at current price more than 100 pips drop before any bear considerations.

EDIT:
AUDCHF (along with other AUDs) has nice trading setup at moment, mainly for shorts two shorting areas:
http://prntscr.com/4q5uxe
Shorts above 8366 are not valid anymore.

AJ bottom has failed as i posted above.

Well, atm. at 85.40

If we break 85.60 (which I think won't happen today) ....Next target is around 86.50 on Daily.

if it failed to break 85.60 support is 85.20/.30

if it break below 85.20 then we have major pullback on Daily but not Weekly.


EDIT:
Next target is around 86.50 on Daily & Weekly.

Lets see we just lost first defense across dollar. Current major defense zone on dollar is extended in size about 20-30 pips big (UCAD,USDCHF) just like previously 2 days ago. Until that is taken there is no bear signs, but since upper defense was taken we should consolidate now and like you said we wont break today.

EDIT: AUD
http://prntscr.com/4q6ux2

EURUSD, structure calls for "bottom" test
http://prntscr.com/4q6vye

Lavanda for EJ i stay out of trading it along with all JPY pairs as its right in good demand zone and makes little sense to short here unles some scalps, and for longs there are still no confirmations so view is still bearish until something changes, but not worth shorting in it.

Thanks or share your IMO. The same, 138,50 is a high demand area, where is now. Dangerous to short it, and is bearish.

Guys we have nice trade coming on ECAD ,nice long setup as long as close is above key level:
http://prntscr.com/4q7ary

Trades update, mostly short-mid term trades, not scalps but not long term positions either, 50 pips:
http://prntscr.com/4q7ccx


EDIT: ECAD level held so no trades.

GBP view for tomorrow, not completly sure on it but looks like most likely down with possible exception of GU.

http://prntscr.com/4q8fbq
http://prntscr.com/4q8fyq

EU

EU Murrey Math levels and direction

EU statistics

Murrey Math based S/R levels

EU

EW count

8h TF


so far: maybe this

Love to read your view and love your charts.

this is Dimitris view

http://www.roboforex.com/analytics/f...wave-26092014/

AUD done, EU done, took 15 pips of EU short.
http://prntscr.com/4qf8qi


ECAD worked out, once level was taken, 20 pips. I have canceled pending long after first attempt has failed, stupid me.

Made very good decision and stayed out of GBP trades becouse it did fake as i was assuming.
http://prntscr.com/4qf974
GBPCHF did droped as posted on chart above but only 15 pips and then faked move and went higher.


Ok new charts:
EURUSD should go lower
http://prntscr.com/4qf9ps
GBPUSD
http://prntscr.com/4qfagk
AUDUSD
http://prntscr.com/4qfar0
GBPAUD, weakness on structure, H4 candle close is the key for direction, if bellow previous pinbar support it should drop at least 30.
http://prntscr.com/4qfaz0
USDCAD same view ECAD, will take short there
http://prntscr.com/4qfblc
Gold, will look for shorts on m1 if possible
http://prntscr.com/4qfc4j

Oh thats a really lovely show about trading, looking forward to more episodes:

UCAD +11, ECAD +16, AUD +10. Most likely done for this week.

Here we go Eurasia preaparing for golden standard:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ns-gold-august

Also notice Uk treasury to criminalize manipulation. No matter if they do it or not, situation is clear what trend is ahead of new monetary system.
Very funny however, all this big buying everywhere, and price keeps rocking. Power of dollar still stands for manipulation, let see if China and Russia tend to behead it trough Comex. I think not, becouse it would be clearly seen as agression, probably all those key events like criminalization, referendums like 30 November, and those little pieces will come together and nail it down rather than Comex default, but who knows, if USA tends to play harsh that just might happen.


I will start slowly buying physical gold, will post report of conclusion to where to buy and store it.

EU

channels and S/R lines

8h TF

Full scale media propaganda:
http://prntscr.com/4qkbga
Asad has probably few weeks left until he is gone.



All calls completed, around 600 pips+ worth of calls this week 90%+ success. Next week 1k+


Infinitus quick question, do you mind pinching your current EU position either short or long net or semi hedge, just checking your status on it. Your lines on chart are very nice, pretty much most of my sup-dem look zones are there, though i only pay attention to closest ones to keep it easy and clean on chart

Forgot to post episode 1:


5:30 is nice one, "today traders wait whether ECB will cut interest rates to help EU economy out of recession". So much jokeing in main stream economics, beautiful. Next thin coming: confescation of pension funds to help EU economy out of recession. In your cinemas...soon, well already screening in Poland, Russia, UK and USA, rest of EU to follow.