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GBPNZD trading calls

  • #461
  • Sep 25, 2014 11:41pm Sep 25, 2014 11:41pm
Quoting openyoureyes
RBA / RBNZ wants cheap NZ, so they are doing what ever it takes to make their money cheaper.. technically it should go down below 2.00 at least but every week there is an occasion which prevents that. last week FOMC minutes, this week RBNZ speech... for GBP/NZD using SL doesn't mean much as slippage is considered normal, my 3 SLs for 3 different shorts slipped past SL yesterday... so hold small lots, don't add more before (for example I add to my lot size whenever price changes for delta0.05)
Good advice,

No 'all in' for a large shorts here.. unless you're ready for..

  • #462
  • Sep 25, 2014 11:50pm Sep 25, 2014 11:50pm
my shorts just blew 100 pip sl got hit
  • #463
  • Sep 25, 2014 11:58pm Sep 25, 2014 11:58pm
2.0622! and climbing..
glad i'm sidelines still..
but, if you do have shorts on, don't let it get too far away..
or at least hopefully your position is small..

then again, it could be the last push up, before a 500 pip dump. All possibilities and probabilities,
and unpredictabilities..

I try to trade more what I see, and not what I think.. but no way i'm going long here. Have to remember the RR, is way better to the south, since this pair has moved pretty much straight up almost 1000 pips.. (daily chart).
  • #464
  • Sep 26, 2014 12:00am Sep 26, 2014 12:00am
Quoting ssaqeel
my shorts just blew 100 pip sl got hit
Sorry to hear.. you are out of the trade now. Good thing you didn't widen that stop. 100 is enough to prove wrong.

Shake it off, and we'll catch that back and then some in no time.
  • #465
  • Sep 26, 2014 12:08am Sep 26, 2014 12:08am
even though i lost the trade but i am happy to be out of it for now. Yeah i am gonna catch this soon and get my pips back.


Quoting 2012mysterio
{quote} Sorry to hear.. you are out of the trade now. Good thing you didn't widen that stop. 100 is enough to prove wrong. Shake it off, and we'll catch that back and then some in no time.
  • #466
  • Sep 26, 2014 12:32am Sep 26, 2014 12:32am
Just add long-term trend indicator for this, eg BB-MACD.
Until red appears, just hold your long trades.
Or just put 200 SMA into 1H TF.
Keep calm and go GREEN...
  • #467
  • Sep 26, 2014 12:55am Sep 26, 2014 12:55am
Looks like it will take some time waiting to short the beast... the only option atm is jump with the bull
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD Daily 260914.png Size: 26 KB
Keep calm and go GREEN...
  • #468
  • Sep 26, 2014 12:56am Sep 26, 2014 12:56am
Quoting nofirumi
Just add long-term trend indicator for this, eg BB-MACD. Until red appears, just hold your long trades. Or just put 200 SMA into 1H TF.
Good ideas.

After the line labeled "Reversal Rejection" which did to the pip send the pair down for many hours (12-13 or so) and which broke within the last hour or so, came the "Draw new Fib" line, so I did (see earlier msg. from me). I set a limit order and just turned on my light to get up to write this message.

Here are the new lines using "Light Text" on the Fibonacci tool which you can download from post #1 from "Fibonacci Insights" thread.

1. 2.10065 area "Trend Reversal" followed by:
2. 2.13250 area "Countertrade"
3. 2.15387 "Reversal Rejection" (the new one).
  • #469
  • Sep 26, 2014 1:04am Sep 26, 2014 1:04am
Quoting Greenstar
{quote} Good ideas. After the line labeled "Reversal Rejection" which did to the pip send the pair down for many hours (12-13 or so) and which broke within the last hour or so, came the "Draw new Fib" line, so I did (see earlier msg. from me). I set a limit order and just turned on my light to get up to write this message. Here are the new lines using "Light Text" on the Fibonacci tool which you can download from post #1 from "Fibonacci Insights" thread. 1. 2.10065 area "Trend Reversal" followed by: 2. 2.13250 area "Countertrade" 3. 2.15387 "Reversal...
Are those your sell limit orders?
Or did you mean you are holding your long trades?
Keep calm and go GREEN...
  • #470
  • Sep 26, 2014 1:57am Sep 26, 2014 1:57am
NZD has many reasons to go lower. GBP doesn't seem to. There is s/t support at 2.0600 - I expect it to drop back to here in the UK session before advancing. I personally wouldn't enter until a nice pullback materializes, given the large ranges occurring, and nature of this market
  • #471
  • Sep 26, 2014 3:43am Sep 26, 2014 3:43am
...But wouldn't trade past the resistance level today.
  • #472
  • Sep 26, 2014 5:37am Sep 26, 2014 5:37am
Have a good weekend traders ..
no trade till next week on GN for me, perhaps it will move a few hundred pips up sunday open..
off to bed.. 0400 here..
  • #473
  • Sep 26, 2014 5:52am Sep 26, 2014 5:52am
dear fight club members,
rule number 1 - never fight against the prevailing force.
my strategy about the gn is simple: buy at retrace or stay away.
2.09
As Above, So Below
  • #474
  • Sep 26, 2014 6:43pm Sep 26, 2014 6:43pm
Quoting 2012mysterio
{quote} Hi Zebra, es, 2.1000 is an interesting number, i suspect being eyed by the big money movers as well.. If/when we get there, there may be a lot of selling pressure, then it should explode..might blast north first though and take out all the small stops, before the drain plug gets pulled.. but we'll have to see, all probabilities here.. fun to trade this pair though hey guys?
Fun to trade as long as you're on the right side of the trend. A real pants crapper if you're trying to call a top ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #475
  • Sep 26, 2014 7:00pm Sep 26, 2014 7:00pm
Quoting tashkent
dear fight club members, rule number 1 - never fight against the prevailing force. my strategy about the gn is simple: buy at retrace or stay away. 2.09
I agree. Don't think the fat lady has sung yet as to the longs ... . If you have a gander at NZD/USD, you'll see few signs of its turning around right now or even consolidating ... . Ride that puppy down! Or, in the case of GBP/NZD, ride the puppy up!

I think what it's doing at 2.06 is just Friday afternoon lack of enthusiasm to enter before the weekend ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #476
  • Sep 26, 2014 7:04pm Sep 26, 2014 7:04pm
Quoting act333
I am playing GBPNZD to the upside. How about you?
I am looking to re-enter long also.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post7765564
Nil desperandum
  • #477
  • Sep 26, 2014 7:09pm Sep 26, 2014 7:09pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I have a small short position at 2.04473 which I intend to use as a bookmark of sorts for a carry trade (great positive swap on the short side). However, I don't think that the Kiwi decline is necessarily over. It's awfully hard to tell where the top of this when you have to zoom out to the weekly to tell, but there is a Double Top at 2.1000 even that is an area of interest: {image}
BTW, decided to close out that 2.04473 short for a small loss ... . Should have noticed that the pair has broken above the 200 period SMA on the Weekly for the first time in many moons ... .

So, buy the f'ing dip ... :
Inserted Video
(video makes me pee my pants every time I watch it).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #478
  • Sep 26, 2014 7:14pm Sep 26, 2014 7:14pm
man i love this pair, good pair if you have a trend trading system
  • #479
  • Sep 26, 2014 7:18pm Sep 26, 2014 7:18pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} BTW, decided to close out that 2.04473 short for a small loss ... . Should have noticed that the pair has broken above the 200 period SMA on the Weekly for the first time in many moons ... . So, buy the f'ing dip ... : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4 (video makes me pee my pants every time I watch it).

The two double tops at approx 2.1 represent supply absorption from the now resolved supply zone that was created during the 2010 consolidation prior to the subsequent move lower. These two highs suggest that 2.1 will in fact offer very little resistance to price advancement, that there is no more significant supply remaining to enter the market at this level IMHO.
Nil desperandum
  • #480
  • Sep 28, 2014 3:17pm Sep 28, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting vincentprice
{quote} The two double tops at approx 2.1 represent supply absorption from the now resolved supply zone that was created during the 2010 consolidation prior to the subsequent move lower. These two highs suggest that 2.1 will in fact offer very little resistance to price advancement, that there is no more significant supply remaining to enter the market at this level IMHO.
Moreover, plenty of air between here and there ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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