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Weekly/h4 trend trading - flow

  • #181
  • Edited 12:36pm May 9, 2014 11:49am | Edited 12:36pm
60, another logical approach - nice one, and a good article link. Lemon's momentum approach is used to filter which currencies to trade (in his case momentum = trending or more likely to trend), thus filtering out the potential for consolidating pairs. I would have thought this would be a priority in pair selection with your approach, but then again I am not convinced that his method of a rise above a 10 week Donchian channel or using RSI is any better than your lower time frame ema cross (but he does combine it with SR. Perhaps like some have suggested, PA at higher time frame or D1 SR alongside D1 ema price cross would be more appealing to choose the pairs more likely to start trending well.
  • #182
  • May 12, 2014 1:15pm May 12, 2014 1:15pm
Hey all,

I was having pretty good success at first, but have been struggling lately. I've been trading eur/jpy and was making good gains with a couple surviving positions, but the hit to the Euro Thurs/Fri was a bummer. I believe I should have moved my stops up to break even by that point, but was comfortable with what I had risked. Considering reentry this week or not.

I having been risking a fixed amount, but haven't figured out how to balance my position size/stop loss. Sometimes I see a price that looks like an obvious s/r resistance point. In this case, I place my stop loss in an appropriate place based on this s/r and choose a position size so my risk is properly managed. Your H4 Power thread showed me how you can track the movement of price as each s/r point is crossed. This has been helpful and worked for me sometimes so far.

When I don't see a good s/r point, I have a harder time choosing position size/stop loss. Lately, I've been trying wider stops and smaller positions. I know I would have more surviving positions if I choose a wider stop; I'm not sure if I would end up with more money.

I'm not sure what I like best, or what works best. It seems that either could be pretty good.
It's all in the hips and nips.
  • #183
  • May 13, 2014 6:08pm May 13, 2014 6:08pm
Quoting danielJackso
Hey all, I was having pretty good success at first, but have been struggling lately. I've been trading eur/jpy and was making good gains with a couple surviving positions, but the hit to the Euro Thurs/Fri was a bummer. I believe I should have moved my stops up to break even by that point, but was comfortable with what I had risked. Considering reentry this week or not. I having been risking a fixed amount, but haven't figured out how to balance my position size/stop loss. Sometimes I see a price that looks like an obvious s/r resistance point....
Hi DJ, are you trading just EJ? spreading your risk over uncorrelated pairs will help massively.

I see nothing wrong with starting with a wider stop, even no initial stop is perfectly acceptable (obviously you need to trade small) - I find it very hard to give advice on these matters anymore especially when trying to decipher 'best', because it is so market dependent. It really comes down to what you prefer because there will be pros and cons to each approach.
tradewith60
  • #184
  • May 13, 2014 6:17pm May 13, 2014 6:17pm
Quoting Porkpie
60, another logical approach - nice one, and a good article link. Lemon's momentum approach is used to filter which currencies to trade (in his case momentum = trending or more likely to trend), thus filtering out the potential for consolidating pairs. I would have thought this would be a priority in pair selection with your approach, but then again I am not convinced that his method of a rise above a 10 week Donchian channel or using RSI is any better than your lower time frame ema cross (but he does combine it with SR. Perhaps like some have suggested,...
Hi Porkpie, nice to see you again.

Agree, that webinar did make me stop and think more about pair selection, I have probably not been giving it enough importance in the past.

Again, there are a million options that could work, one that did appeal was using weekly turns to give bias, I may have another look at that. In the end you either have a bias selector that switches quickly or slowly, and they are both favourable to different market conditions, if the trend is strong and continues for a long time then you dont benefit from switching bias everytime there is a retrace. If you have a bias that changes slowly (like the ema I suggest) then it suffers in ranges....
tradewith60
  • #185
  • May 13, 2014 7:22pm May 13, 2014 7:22pm
Thank you for the reply!

I have had some positions in AUS/CAD (Long), NZD/CAD(Long), and AUS/NZD (Short). CAD seemed weak and I was trying to find which was stronger, AUS or NZD. Over the last two weeks my positions have been stopped out. This experience is what made me want to try smaller position sizes with wider stops. I would have a couple profitable positions now if I had a wider stop, but also some heavy built up losses.

I need to re-enter some other markets out side of the Eurozone and Japan. Unfortunately, I can't trade Brent oil, and my broker only offers 1:1 leverage on Gold. I've heard the CAD can be a substitute for trading oil, as they are generally correlated.

At this point, I am finding it more frustrating to get stopped out unnecessarily, than to live with a chunk of unrealized losses while the market retraces. Id rather get stopped out fewer times, and re enter fewer times, with a smaller position size. Hopefully I will keep working towards a system that fits me well.

My goals right now are to hone in on a couple of additional markets to trade, while developing better way to make this selection. I also am trying to set some more "mechanical" rules for exiting my positions (I am leaning towards some ration of the average weekly range).

Thank you once again for your assistance!
It's all in the hips and nips.
  • #186
  • May 14, 2014 7:32am May 14, 2014 7:32am
hey 60, I found your 4 hour power thread. Very very very interesting stuff, especially the part of using the higher-up timeframe for the profit target. Are you still using this method?

Regarding the webinar, do you know if that guy's calls/signals are any good? I have a job/business <that I wish I didn't have!> and sometimes I can't look at the charts. If he's really good, I wouldn't care about spending the money. But as usual, there're no 3rd-party verified results.
  • #187
  • May 16, 2014 7:14pm May 16, 2014 7:14pm
Quoting acbrasil
hey 60, I found your 4 hour power thread. Very very very interesting stuff, especially the part of using the higher-up timeframe for the profit target. Are you still using this method? Regarding the webinar, do you know if that guy's calls/signals are any good? I have a job/business <that I wish I didn't have!> and sometimes I can't look at the charts. If he's really good, I wouldn't care about spending the money. But as usual, there're no 3rd-party verified results.
I do use those techniques if I want to find a good exit, I have spent a lot of time developing trading strategies, I am at the stage now where I want to place trades and walk away, so that is why this is by far my preferred method. Screen time has fried my eyes amongst other nasty side effects.... The variations that will work seem endless and you can lose yourself in it, at some point you have to stop and ask yourself, or remind yourself what it is you're actually trying to achieve.

The H4 power ideas/techniques were a turning point for me but I wasn't a good enough trader at the time to take advantage of it properly, it is a very involved approach though, so be prepared to spend time at the charts, something I dont have the energy or desire for anymore.
tradewith60
  • #188
  • May 17, 2014 9:07am May 17, 2014 9:07am
I know what you mean. I started out with 1 minute charts years ago. Now I just trade off the dailys and occaisionally a lower time frame. I've never looked back since.
  • #189
  • Edited 5:47pm May 31, 2014 3:15pm | Edited 5:47pm
So I have a question, you have talked about if you increase your targets you can find an edge in the market all by itself.

My question is, what risk do you use in those circumstance?

As the win rate comes down, the size of the draw down increases and that must go hand in hand with reducing the risk.

So in those cases where expectancy are similar, or lets say even a bit lower in the smaller target strategy, you would go with the system that has the least draw down because you can leverage better.

Thoughts?
  • #190
  • Edited 10:22am Sep 8, 2014 8:21am | Edited 10:22am
Hello 60minuteman,

thank you once again for a beautiful thread.

in hopes to add to someones arsenal, here's a rule I have regarding moving to BE.
After a trade goes my way I will allow price to "seperate" from the entry area (no wicks printed there), then I will allow price to revisit the area ONCE.
After price "seperates" again, I will move to BE.
I will not tolerate a second re-visit.

aristid.

my screenshot illustrates the concept, entry is at the 200ma after change of direction.
a variation is to move SL to below the entry candle after 1st seperation (that would be the lows of the second green candle after the huge red one - risk is cut in half), then move to BE after 2nd seperation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 107 KB
  • #191
  • Sep 26, 2014 2:53am Sep 26, 2014 2:53am
Quoting danjuma
Hello 60MM, you have not posted here for a while. How is the going with this method, still proding the goods? Thanks
Hello 60mm, I did post the above question a while ago, but you never responded to it. So posting the question again in case you just missed it the first time. Are you still using this method in it's originla form or have you tweaked it or abandoned? Also, you used to have a blog where you discuss your methods, but blog seems to have disappeared. Thanks
  • #192
  • Edited 8:03am Oct 5, 2014 7:52am | Edited 8:03am
Quoting 60minuteman
here's the last year of EA weekly chart... Find the trend (higher TF) buy the lows each week, hold them {image}
Sorry for the dumb question but, how do you find the low of the week without acting too slowly and realising one is too late to take advantage of the low?

OOPS ! - Sorry -just read post 99 where it is explained
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #193
  • Oct 15, 2014 4:17am Oct 15, 2014 4:17am
Hello 60minuteman,


I am trying to implement your strategy after I was not successful with indicator based approaches.
I am using an older screenshot you once posted, hope that is ok. I marked all the entries I would have taken with red arrows and the place where I would have placed my pending orders. Are those entries right?

My interpretation considering the rules is:
We are in a downtrend because price is below the 100 EMA on the 4 hour chart. After an upmove we place pending sellstop orders after the break of the bearish candles. My questions are also if you delete pending orders if they don't become executed after next bar and if you are still using this strategy successfully live?
Is is a problem if the move in trend direction happens in the middle or at the end of the week? Are those signals less valid as if they would happen at the beginning of the week?
Attached Image


Greetings,
Armin
  • #194
  • Feb 2, 2015 4:29am Feb 2, 2015 4:29am
not got anything to add on this approach here but I am posting some new videos over on my flow thread at nakedforex.com...

http://www.nakedforexnow.com/showthread.php?832-flow-2........

Inserted Video
tradewith60
  • #195
  • Feb 2, 2015 4:55am Feb 2, 2015 4:55am
Quoting 60minuteman
not got anything to add on this approach here but I am posting some new videos over on my flow thread at nakedforex.com... http://www.nakedforexnow.com/showthread.php?832-flow-2........ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36DbMHbNEZM
Welcome back 60....
  • #196
  • Last Post: May 29, 2015 11:33pm May 29, 2015 11:33pm
Hi, I've been following along. Are you still using this flow method, or H4 power?
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