Funny Looking Rectangles & Useless Drivel

A good example is this GBP deal:
http://i62.tinypic.com/wrm0jp.jpg

If you've been drawing the B2i correctly and using the Harmonic Fall Line along with the Standard (Neutral) Fall Line, then you would see where the "Real Price" zones sit in relation to everything else, including your long range market bias indicator. Here, you are seeing this take place on the H1 Chart. These are the same D1 B2i and that older one is now five days old with no strike. It came close two times in the profit range of over 100 pips, but then pulled back precisely in relation to your question.

Most of the other charts I've shown with OS1 have been on the M1 time frame. Of course, the bigger the time frame, the stronger the influence can be on price in lower time frames WHEN the Market Phase is 1 or 5. However, you have to make sure you are observing and evaluating the Market Phase in all relevant time frames. Doing that we find the following:

GBPUSD | D1 B2i on M30 Chart
http://i62.tinypic.com/5kr3af.jpg

My long range market bias indicator (OS1) has cross twice since the initial Early Warning Entry Window nearly five days ago. The OS1 condition was Flat at the time of what should have been the initial trade entry. It then crossed UP and has since crossed back DOWN over the course of four days.


GBPUSD | D1 B2i on M15 Chart
http://i62.tinypic.com/30dcm6w.jpg

Interestingly enough, OS1 on this chart was never crossed DOWN and continues to be in the UP condition with inverse angles on both the Green and Red lines. Meaning, the OS1 condition is UP (Green over Red) but both lines are angled down WHILE in the UP condition. This is a strong indication of high market volatility in this time frame which can been witnessed on the chart. It ALSO is an indication of the potential for an OS1 cross, in this case, to the upside.

GBPUSD | D1 B2i on M5 Chart
http://i60.tinypic.com/200qmuw.jpg

Zooming in on the M5 time frame, OS1 had three crosses since the establishment of the five day old D1 B2i of 9/19/2014. At the Early Entry Window into the Long position, M5 OS1 had just crossed to the DOWN side. That was reversed one day later with price behavior and OS1 reversed to the UP side and remained there for two days until price reversed it again to the DOWN side on the slight failure to reach the D1 B2i Standard Fall Line of 9/19/2014. OS1 is now DOWN side and you should not that its lines are widely separated. This indicates price exhaustion to the DOWN side in THAT time frame. You should also note how this OS1 DOWN side price exhaustion is perfectly lined-up with the current D1 Inverse B2i Structure.

That D1 Inverse B2i Structure is also lined-up with the 9/16/2014 D1 Standard B2i Early Entry Window. What you are witnessing (at this point) is a Double Bottom being formed on the M5 time frame before all OS1 conditions go to UP.

GBPUSD | D1 B2i on M1 Chart
http://i61.tinypic.com/2eo9xdl.jpg

Finally, at the M1 level we see the current D1 Inverse B2i Structure up close and personal with detailed price behavior inside the inverse structure. Remember, these Inverse structures are historically known to repel price in the opposite direction of the Fall Line. That would place the repelling action directly in-line with the original 9/19/2014 Early Entry Window back to the Long side.

So, if nearly 100 pips was not enough for one to exit with profit two to three days ago, then you are still in the Draw Phase of this Hold. However, by having some detailed information about the "structure of price" in multiple relevant time frames, you can see the potential for continuing the Hold on this trade back to the upside (I am not tracking news on GBPUSD, so keep track of that yourself - news trumps all indicators and all trading systems that are contrary to its own vector).

What I'd be looking for here, is a consistently and stable crossing on the OS1 to the upside. The current price behavior around the M1 OS1 region is indicative of such a cross looming. Other factors are obviously at play, but this is about the extent that I can demonstrate this for you using just one silly little indicator (and of course, OS1 as the stabilizer).

So, I hope that answers your question. Yes, you can trade these structures when they are in the midst of OS1, but you need to analyze the relevant time frames and keep track of all the forthcoming Standard B2i in the time frame you have selected to trade (all other relevant time frames as well, if you want maximum input for decision making purposes).

I think perhaps I am just bad at picking up clues , or more likely, I'm still not very good at asking the right questions. I actually set up a spreadsheet almost exactly like your second attachment a while ago. I spent hours and hours looking at the data (and thinking about it pretty much anytime I wasn't looking at the data) over the course of a few months and couldn't find anything close to what fit my description of an edge (65%, preferably 70%+). Most of what I worked out would give me a 'signal' of ~55 at most, when filtered with an off/on switch. Although I wouldn't consider it so, perhaps it is closer to the right line than I original thought?

What I mean by this is that from the looks of it, your barometer is combining 34 smaller signals to give you 1 aggregate signal. The combined total is only giving you a probability of ~56%. When this is further added with the 30+ other signals, you get a decision of 77%+, which is much more comfortable. My question is how do you know that the 56% signal is 'any good'? It doesn't seem to be very good as a stand alone signal, but when incorporated correctly, it pulls its weight in providing the correct net signal

The attached numeric to each signal is the Signal Strength, not the Probability. The probability is calculated using the signals inside the MetaBrain layer where the voting takes place. Each indicator has its own strength value.

The IDLC (Indicator Development Lifecycle) is a multistage process that I created for the development of new indicator concepts. One of the phases includes a Solo Backtest. If the indicator theory survives the IDLC process (most do not), it is then scored and ranked. From that point, it is categorized as either belong to the Timing, Direction or Magnitude category, and then it is designated by class as either being a Predictive (counter market bias) or Continuation (with market bias) based indicator.

As far as the clues go, I start with raw data and then I get very creative. There is no magic to it. I simply enjoy working with numbers and I like finding patterns in data, if they exist. The rest is a lot of testing and evaluation.

The probability calculations are derived in a different way, much further downstream in the system.

"...you have to locate bigger structures with greater variance in both the Primary Legs, which are ultimately used to create the Projection Legs after they are mirrored and flipped into position."

So I am actually looking for larger candle movements for B2i structure, then. It can be as arbitrary as I like, as long as my longer term market direction and magnitude indicators agree to a certain degree with the number of pips I am looking for.
Addo: It seems, though, that your B2i structures are built at regular intervals. Or am I seeing things?

In other words, if there is a Primary B2i structure that has a potential value of 150 pips, I would be hesitant to take the trade if the ATR were 12, say, because the probability of the trade moving back 150-pips on a chart with a 12 ATR is very unlikely. The 150-pip move may indicate the market is moving into Phase 1 or 5 and I wouldn't want to be trading B2i then anyway.

The key would then be to find price that has moved many pips but essentially returned to the same general area. The result would be a Fall Line where the reflexive settling of price is most likely to return to?
By Harmonic Fall Line, do you mean a line drawn corner to corner of the Bento Box with a 61.8% Fibonacci Fan generating the likely "Real Price" area?

Intuitively, this is where I would draw the funny-looking rectangle.

LiquidGenius,

Maybe this post from 2005 will give you some more hints:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...1565#post21565

Under Version 1.0 of B2i, that's probably the safer way to approach the matter.

You can easily go against the grain, but it is often more necessary to have tools that can help you measure and navigate the Magnitude that opposes the direction of your trade. For example, Distinct Vega, is one of those indicators that measures Magnitude in both directions, but it does it only within a single bar of data. You have to aggregate bars of Distinct Vega data together to get a bigger picture. If you see DV pulling in a direction in the aggregate that is away from the B2i Fall Line, that is one indication that market bias might be against the signal that B2i is projecting. But, you may have three other good Magnitude measuring indicators that are each moving in the same direction as the B2i signal. Which one do you believe? That all depends entirely on the tightness and thoroughness of the historical analysis you've done on those Magnitude indicators.

There is strength in numbers but no chain will be stronger than its weakest link, which gets back to my design philosophy of not allowing historically weak players to have input into the system. Merely because an indicator is capable of producing a signal, does not automatically mean it should be relied upon.


I've posted Hybrid B2i in this thread to show people how I do it. I've suggested that people use Standard B2i first, so they can become more familiar with how they should look and work. Hybrid B2i often times cut across standard time frames, so you have to account for those Standard B2i that are in between the Hybrids, if you are going to use them.

Hard to sum all that up with just one indicator, but that's the idea in general terms. Both the Size and the Timing of the B2i have to be taken into account. The Size of the structure is equivalent to its Primary Legs. The Timing of the structure is equivalent to the number of bars between each Extreme Point that establishes the termination of the Primary Legs. You can have a Fall Line sitting 150 pips away from one or another Extreme Point, but yet have a structure that shows as little as 4 hourly bars separating the Extreme Points. Or, that same 150 pip Fall Line could emerge with a structure that has 96 hourly bars separating the Extremes Points.

It is not a guaranteed that the Fall Line will be struck in 4 or 96 hours in either case, but the shape of the structure and the Steepness or Slope and Length of its Projection Lines (derived from mirroring the Primary Lines swapping their position) will typically be indicative of the "Time" it will take before price reaches the Fall Line target, WHEN there is no rapid Internal Strike on the Fall Line. So, that means after price breaks out of the box, does not extend the structure by creating a new Extreme Point and then follows the Projection Leg to the Fall Line (ideally).


If the structure exists and price is below the Fall Line with a Phase 1 being anticipated or already formed, then that's one of the optimal conditions for entering a B2i trade. If the structure exists and price is above the Fall Line with a Phase 5 on the way or in place, then the same is true.

Locate structures where you have a move in price away from the Starting Point of the structure sufficient to meet your revenue needs. Measure the Magnitude of that move and determine whether or not price has exhausted itself using measurements from mutliple time frames. This will place price in the optimal position for an Early Entry Window and reduce risk.

For Version 1.0 of B2i, you would want to closely monitor the trade and become the "stop" if necessary at a level feel comfortable with (I don't trade with stops). Price will be in this Early Entry Window configuration until the market begins to move towards the Fall Line and produce an Internal Strike on the target - the most secure B2i that can ever be traded. If you get an internal strike on the target, it is basically having your cake and eating it too, because price will at some point exit the structure. When it exits the structure you get a second shot at the Fall Line (depending on the distance to the Fall Line when price exits). Though with a lower probability because of the previous internal strike, you can determine whether or not a second trade back to the Fall Line is warranted.


The Harmonic Fall Line is made where both Fibonacci Fan 61.8% lines intersect. The "Real Price" region is the distance between the Harmonic Fall Line and the Standard Fall Line. See earlier posts in this thread for how the Harmonic Fall Line is created using two Fibonacci Fans applied to one B2i Primary Leg and one B2i Projection Leg. You can start with page 20 and 21 of the thread.

Rather than come across as a sycophantic goon, I will just simply say Thank You.

It looks like an elongated inverse hybrid to the short side. But, because it has had no internal strike, there is good potential for the Long side move first. These conflicting B2i are indicative of all the local volatility right now in this pair. The pair has behaved exactly as the B2i suggests. I've drawn your larger Hybrid Inverse D4 B2i in juxtaposition to the rest, including today's D1 Inverse B2i structure. That's two inverse structures in close proximity to each other - that will produce a fair amount of volatility, which is precisely what the pair is experiencing right now on the H1 time frame.

That D4 Inverse structure is Short, but the current D1 Inverse structure is Long. Recall, what makes a B2i structure Inverse, is the lack of angle between the Fall Line and the associated Projection Leg. In the case of your D4 Inverse B2i, the High to Projected Intersection Leg and the Fall Line itself have very little angle between them, indicating strong resistance at that level. The current D1 Inverse B2i shows little to no angle between the Low to Projected Intersection Leg and its Fall Line. That indicates a degree of good support at that level.

Next, notice how OS1 cuts through all of these B2i structures on the H1 chart and notice the condition of OS1 being Flat right now. OS1 cuts right through the middle of these structures with flatness. That is why I remain in the long position from the D1 B2i of 9/19/2014, that had poor Timing. Again, I am not tracking any news right now - I'm just focusing on the structures for purposes of demonstration.

Price now sits in the RP4 region, but has never seen the RP1 region. That's an opportunity as long news cooperates and the H1 OS1 configuration can get to crossed-UP. That becomes a higher probability as the lower time frames and their OS1 begin to cross-UP. Right now, the M30 OS1 is crossed-UP but projecting DOWN and projecting a cross back DOWN. That would weight against this long move. Same for the M15 OS1. The M5 OS1 is crossed DOWN, but in entering an early condition where it historically crosses-UP. However, that will take some time. The M1 OS1 is making a wide double bottom move and is now crossed-UP.

So, just a very simplistic analysis of these long range market bias indicators in the relevant time frames, can help when working with B2i structures. That's how I would analyze this, if I had to do it manually. Thank goodness, I don't do this stuff manually - it is a lot to track at once and that''s just two indicators being analyzed in multiple time frames.

Naaaa. Not a problem. Hope it helps.

Thanks for the link. I have seen it before but re-reading anything idouble has to say once (or 30) more never hurts and is always inspiring.

Of course, one should always pay attention to the larger time frames using the same structures they rely upon in the smaller time frames. GBPUSD look like a completely different creature on the Annual time scale.

Previous 1 Year, Current 2 Year and Current 1 Year B2i Fall Lines
http://i62.tinypic.com/30vjjmc.jpg

In a condition such as this, the upside (Long) B2i can and will see some frustration reaching target levels. Had I looked at this before, I would have most likely rejected small time frame Longs, and jumped the small time frame Shorts. But, hey - that's what I get for NOT taking a look at the Larger Time Frames in putting it all into perspective. The one saving grace is the current 1 Year B2i sitting up there at $1.67631. If the Annual downside Magnitude in GBPUSD is over for the year (or very close to it), then the current D1 B2i that is now five days old and failing, will become a gold mine for a long range Hold. But, as you can clearly see, the Flatness of the previous 1 Year B2i in 2013, which gave it some initial upside pop to the upside in 2014, has long since run out of steam and you saw price violently pull back down towards the 1 Year B2i Fall Line of 2013. No doubt it is too far away to be reached this year, but that does not remove the tendency to move in its direction.

At the same time, an overlay 2 year B2i also has its Fall Line tucked underneath my current D1 B2i which is five days old. Not the best place to be positioning a Long trade - but this is a manual exercise and I did not check these larger time frames before entering. However, that won't stop your education! You need to see this unfold and understand why it is unfolding the ways it is.

The GBPUSD on an annual basis is being split between three major Fall Lines, two of them Short and one Long. THIS, is WHY having an understanding of Magnitude is so important. 2013 initial downside Magnitude looks like is mostly likely hit over 100% (I won't get into a full blown discussion of Magnitude right now because that is an entirely different thread). The 2013 upside Magnitude "looks" to my eye (I do not have GBP loaded into my system so I can only take an educated guess) as if it did not reach 100%, though some dimensions or measurements of Magnitude look like they might have exceeded 100%. That means GBP was highly volatile for 2013. That upside vector continued through the first half of 2014, establishing a new Extreme Point for and overlapping 2 Year B2i to be plotted.

Bring that overlapping 2 Year B2i into existence along with a Fall Line below current price, the market then snapped on a dime and headed like a missile shot down towards the 2 Year B2i Fall Line. Doing so, the market created the current 1 year B2i Fall Line with its target well above price and well above the overlapping 2 Year B2i Fall Line.

The market currently sits at a resting point before making its next move. It has a decision to make: Take out the 2 Year B2i Fall Line with an external strike and in doing so, EXPEND all 2014 downside Magnitude in the process, or take out the current 1 Year B2i Fall Line with an internal strike, conserve downside Magnitude and prep for the downside surge in early 2015 towards the overlapping 2 Year and what will then be the 3 Year B2i Fall Lines, which have not yet been struck internally or externally. Right now, over the past two years and including this current projected year's B2i, there have been no internal strikes. That tells me that price wants to "trend" on the Annual Basis, but it cannot decide in what direction to "trend" on an Annual Basis.

If I am a very long term position trader, then I am Short and proud of it. If I am a short-term tactical trader and B2i is my only indicator, then I will bias towards all short sided B2i in the smaller time frames, but pay attention to my Magnitude indicators and take long sided B2i trades in the shorter time frames as well, WHEN appropriate.

Thus, part of the reason why the D1 B2i of five days ago struggles so much now. I knew there had to be a good reason, the target was too nicely positioned for there not be more follow through than this. Now, I see why. There is going to be a LOT of volatility in GBPUSD over the next 1-2 years at least. Expect it - its coming. In fact, it is already here and it is going to get worse - or better for B2i Traders! It depends on how you look at it. If you are a pure trend Trader in GBPUSD, you are headed for some whippy action over the next year or two.

Well actually to clarify, starting from the left; The 1st and 2nd picture are range bars with swings. The 3rd picture is just a standard time based H1 chart with B2i v1.

What startled me... and I am still figuring out, is that almost how close the key price points are mapped out by B2i v1, when compared to the swings.
B2i v2 appears to be the missing link between 2 B2i v1 structures, mapping the transition and flow between the 2 structures.
Swings map the continuous flow of price at every turn, transition from swing to swing.

What I am investigating is what is really happening in the areas I've circled in yellow.
http://i61.tinypic.com/hvqukg.png


Thank you very much for your kind compliments =) Yes the establishment of the initial range is the most difficult. Everything else falls apart so long this single initial step is wrong. I've figured that using the swings I have as the initial range works out pretty good. Its also that I saw the same thing with the B2i boxes... especially v2, that the way that it extends itself beyond as a custom timeframe, IMO correctly maps out this initial range!!!


I had been also thinking about this carefully..

You did mention that the structure of B2i behaves similarly regardless of the size of the time frame.
I am also seeing that the structure of my swings behaves similarly regardless the size of the price frame i use for the swings.

Since right now I have a finding that works 99% of time for all time/price frames... essentially the find is that a price range will be forced into a vacuum to retrace.. that there is a minimal amount it has to retrace to 99% of time, especially when current price is at the top of the range + price range reaches levels outside normal ranges. (actually it reminded me of TRO's rat zone.. you know where I came from)

That also reminded me of your other works regarding 'overfills and underfills', 'trajectory release' and 'dominant and subdominant TCDs'. I might had misunderstood it from your POV, but I think this is how i see it; that an overfilled price range has to zip back to normalize ranges due to 'external pressure' like a vacuum + an underfill price range builts up 'internal pressure' and needs to burst out.

However, in reality, we have many price ranges to consider. As a start, price ranges can be determined with the help of 'time' frames, using time as a reference to frame up price. Essentially what one can do is to measure every single frame possible, and come up with a aggregate and optimized cycle of 'internal pressure' VS 'external pressure' behavior. I also suppose that this behavior can be also said to lead up to what we call market states.

If I am venturing too close into 'Do Not Ever Discuss' zone... please stop me now. Somewhat, I think this is way too close, based off everything I've gathered and interpetated from your works that are available in public so far.

"come up with a aggregate and optimized cycle of 'internal pressure' VS 'external pressure' behavior." = Density Probability. When you locate those aggregations repeating themselves in history and resulting in movement in price in a particular direction, then you have discovered a Density Probability Pattern. That is called Delta StealthTrading and few can do it correctly. It is really good to see you on the right track. It is so stealthy that it should be illegal. The results are often times just like having insider information before the move happens. Very stealthy.

Well, that was probably one of the best summations of how to use Deltas that I've seen anyone write so far. Apparently, you get the concept fairly well and are looking in the right directions while asking the right questions in your work. That pretty much sums up the Delta game. It is all about finding the locations that contain the highest density of probability across all relevant time frames using Delta based indicators. That is the entirety of the game in a nutshell. Well summed.

Yes, that is the limit of my public demonstration of the matter as well. Going any further than your summation enters into proprietary territory. The goal was to get people to where you are in your understanding of the right questions to ask themselves. The rest is up for them to discover their own path to using the Delta concept to their advantage. Glad to see someone actually getting the concept and asking the right questions. Well done!

If I were still doing protege training, based on that summation, that would have probably been enough to get you picked. Back then, I only selected people who could demonstrate that they understood the concept and the problems that had to be solved. However, I do not do anymore personal training. But, what's really important is that you now know the problem that needs to be solved and that is more than half the battle.

Congratulations! It is good to see someone actually understand a new trading philosophy that you have been trying to share with people for years without giving the entire store away. Now, you understand why this is not standard technical analysis.

hey guys I have found a "delta" indi I am not sure if it is the same as double was talking about?

what settings?

anybody know?

thankx

One last clue about which B2i structures are best before I go tonight. Here it is: Diamonds are forever.

I will unpack that concept tomorrow.

Have a goodnight and everyone give a round of applause to Relativity. If you don't give him a round of applause, at the very least, you had better read his last post and start about it.

Haha... 'Her' if you don't mind =)

:nerd:

Hey, PM.

Based on this:

int start()
{
for(int shift=Bars-1; shift>0; shift--)
{
ExtMapBuffer1[shift]=0;
ExtMapBuffer2[shift]=0;
}
if (test==1) {mBar=nBars;} else {mBar=Bars;}
for(shift=Bars-1; shift>0; shift--)
{
mas=iMA(NULL, 0, sper, 0, MODE_EMA, PRICE_CLOSE,shift-1);
maf=iMA(NULL, 0, fper, 0, MODE_EMA, PRICE_CLOSE,shift-1);
sdel=MathRound((mas-Close[0])/Point);
fdel=MathRound((maf-Close[0])/Point);
if (sdel==0) {sdel=0.0001;}
if (fdel==0) {fdel=0.0001;}
if (sdel!=0) {ExtMapBuffer1[shift-1]=sdel;}
if (fdel!=0) {ExtMapBuffer2[shift-1]=fdel;}
}
//----
return(0);


No. Not it. But, somebody here I know for sure is able to help you. Originally, this thread was about B2i, but it is hard talking about it without discussing at least some simple aspects of Deltas, because you miss all the Early Warning Entry window possibilities and you have to wait until price clears the Time of the Intersection before entering - that's Version 1.0. That is a very limited B2i, but that is how prototype ideas are evolved when they are new sometimes until you find ways to connect it with other tools.

Deltas are not hard concepts to understand. You just have to be willing to let go of tradition long enough to "see" how such a simple concept can be useful in trading. Many people don't "get" Deltas, because all they have ever known are moving average lines on a chart, oscillators or bar graphs representing even more moving averages of visible price. Deltas are the invisible characteristic of price. The component of price that actually moves markets either up or down and Deltas exist in different time frames (I've given the basic form and calculation of the Delta Indicator, Distinct Vega earlier in this thread).

Deltas, Trajectories and Vectors are fundamental components of discovering Magnitude and all are concepts that I use in my routine trading (I've given some concepts about each of these earlier in this thread). And, like H2O is to the human body, Magnitude is to the market. But, Magnitude exists in more than just ATR. ATR is but one dimension of Magnitude, there are countless others - as many as the number of Deltas, Trajectories and Vectors that you can find and develop.

I'll try to cover more of this tomorrow with a raw data example.

Rare, but nice. No way I could have known. I always thought women made better traders. Ironically, three out of the original five StealthTraders were women and I did not know their identity before picking them - just their writing. That can't be a mere coincidence.

So, here is a good poll question (probably asked a thousand times before): Do women make better traders than men? I personally know of at least three of them who would bury many male traders I've seen on boards who others believe to be really good.

Oh, boy! Buckle up.