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  • #4,961
  • Sep 25, 2014 1:03pm Sep 25, 2014 1:03pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hey njr, yes, looking good. VIX jumped more than 20%. {image} Few days ago, I couldn't find more than 7-8 stocks with IV rank above 40... Look at it now... Plus, there are a lot more of them if you include the ones with earnings, because majority of them will have them in 40 days or so, so you can trade something with 30 DTE.
Hey SD,

Yeah, great for the option sellers

I'm sure you did well on your VIX trader. I recall you bought a few weeks back and I'm sure it is now well above what you bought at?
  • #4,962
  • Sep 25, 2014 1:06pm Sep 25, 2014 1:06pm
If we do get a bounce tomorrow, I am betting that one of the best trades will be fading the UVXY, or VXX...
UVXY +17%... it will deflate very very fast, unless the sell off continues. It can go up for a few days... we will see. I got nothing against VIX goes to 20... But at the end it will go down hard, unless the big correction is starting right now. Keep an eye on it.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,963
  • Sep 25, 2014 1:08pm Sep 25, 2014 1:08pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey SD, Yeah, great for the option sellers I'm sure you did well on your VIX trader. I recall you bought a few weeks back and I'm sure it is now well above what you bought at?
That was for Sep expiry, closed few weeks back.
I didn't enter it again for Oct expiry, was on vacation, after that doing nothing for a few days, only today I start to build some positions.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,964
  • Sep 25, 2014 1:18pm Sep 25, 2014 1:18pm
Quoting StrayDog
If we do get a bounce tomorrow, I am betting that one of the best trades will be fading the UVXY, or VXX... UVXY +17%... it will deflate very very fast, unless the sell off continues. It can go up for a few days... we will see. I got nothing against VIX goes to 20... But at the end it will go down hard, unless the big correction is starting right now. Keep an eye on it.
Yep Monday I sold UVXY 10/3 $22/$19 bull put spread for $0.67/$0.07 and now $22 short puts are <$0.20, will likely close soon and look for a collapse tomorrow & then will sell another leg - UVXY is good like that, big fast spikes you can milk multiple times if you are set up right....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,965
  • Sep 25, 2014 1:24pm Sep 25, 2014 1:24pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} That was for Sep expiry, closed few weeks back. I didn't enter it again for Oct expiry, was on vacation, after that doing nothing for a few days, only today I start to build some positions.
Yeah, I saw you were on holiday....Load up on the positions and make the mooooonnnnneeeeeyyyyyyy

VIX now at 16.23 - 22.31% daily change - EXCELLENT!!!!
  • #4,966
  • Sep 25, 2014 1:31pm Sep 25, 2014 1:31pm
Crystal ball gazers - Any predictions on where SPX will end up at close today? I'm wondering if there will be the usual 3:30pm ramp up or if there will be a further sell off towards the close?????
  • #4,967
  • Sep 25, 2014 1:48pm Sep 25, 2014 1:48pm
Quoting njr
Crystal ball gazers - Any predictions on where SPX will end up at close today? I'm wondering if there will be the usual 3:30pm ramp up or if there will be a further sell off towards the close?????
1970-75, I'd bet - I don't think there will be a selloff into the close. We'll see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,968
  • Sep 25, 2014 1:50pm Sep 25, 2014 1:50pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yep Monday I sold UVXY 10/3 $22/$19 bull put spread for $0.67/$0.07 and now $22 short puts are <$0.20, will likely close soon and look for a collapse tomorrow & then will sell another leg - UVXY is good like that, big fast spikes you can milk multiple times if you are set up right....
If any are new to UVXY, just be careful - I don't usually take any credit less than $0.60 or so, because the spreads suck so hard - you can be well otm on your short legs but still waiting for them to drop under $0.15....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,969
  • Sep 25, 2014 1:58pm Sep 25, 2014 1:58pm
still looking at EWZ, today's dip nudging me towards a call diag debit spread. ...details later
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,970
  • Sep 25, 2014 2:04pm Sep 25, 2014 2:04pm
Thinking about another bear call spread... this time on TWTR. It would be 53/55 Oct17 for like $0.65 credit...

Chart... It seem technically ok also, IMO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TWTR 53-55.png Size: 77 KB



Re UVXY... it can be a phenomenal U/L to trade, if you know how to do it. I prefer VXX options, because of narrow bid/ask spread and great liquidity, but you are right, UVXY pays better...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,971
  • Sep 25, 2014 2:31pm Sep 25, 2014 2:31pm
Anybody understand GPRO? It is over 3% UP today.
TWTR had a great run also immediately after IPO... and then crashed.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,972
  • Edited 2:50pm Sep 25, 2014 2:38pm | Edited 2:50pm
Quoting StrayDog
Anybody understand GPRO? It is over 3% UP today. TWTR had a great run also immediately after IPO... and then crashed.
Not sure if you have a Twitter account but some of the feeds I am subscribe to have quoted the following:

"hearing that a small hedge fund has been obliterated by a large GPRO short and is closing up"....

"GPRO short squeeze"

"GoPro Inc Extends Gains Amid High Expectations For Product Launch"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gopro-...164818736.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amb...?siteid=yhoof2

Not sure if that's the case or not???
  • #4,973
  • Sep 25, 2014 2:39pm Sep 25, 2014 2:39pm
Quoting njr
Crystal ball gazers - Any predictions on where SPX will end up at close today? I'm wondering if there will be the usual 3:30pm ramp up or if there will be a further sell off towards the close?????
Looks like will get a nice bearish engulfing candle for today. Heading towards 1950 is next, IMO.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,974
  • Sep 25, 2014 2:41pm Sep 25, 2014 2:41pm
Quoting StrayDog
Anybody understand GPRO? It is over 3% UP today. TWTR had a great run also immediately after IPO... and then crashed.
l've been watching GPRO for some weeks now, all I know its sells tech stuff and it IPO a few months back, it has great daily ranges but far too early to trade, not enough trading data as of yet for me
  • #4,975
  • Sep 25, 2014 2:41pm Sep 25, 2014 2:41pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Not sure if you have a Twitter account but some of the feeds I am subscribe have quoted. Not sure if that's the case or not??? "hearing that a small hedge fund has been obliterated by a large GPRO short and is closing up"....
Stay small... just repeat with me, you silly hedge fond manager or whatever...

Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small... Stay small...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,976
  • Sep 25, 2014 2:45pm Sep 25, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} l've been watching GPRO for some weeks now, all I know its sells tech stuff and it IPO a few months back, it has great daily ranges but far too early to trade, not enough trading data as of yet for me
I agree. On TWTR there is just a few levels so far. Only way to play those is either to buy pre-IPO and cross your fingers, OR play a classic ER's game of buying a strangle or straddle, cos this new kids will go wild on their first ER's statements.

I expect on GPRO the same scenario for lock-up period like on TWTR. The stock will likely be well above IPO price and we will see a big selloff. Lock-up for GPRO expires on Dec26 I think.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,977
  • Sep 25, 2014 2:49pm Sep 25, 2014 2:49pm
Any how QQQ opens or trades lower than 97.63 tomorrow I will be looking to trade NFLX AMZN GOOG FB TWTR or any volatile nasdaq stock with big daily range and the options being cheap to the downside
  • #4,978
  • Sep 25, 2014 2:51pm Sep 25, 2014 2:51pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I agree. On TWTR there is just a few levels so far. Only way to play those is either to buy pre-IPO and cross your fingers, OR play a classic ER's game of buying a strangle or straddle, cos this new kids will go wild on their first ER's statements. I expect on GPRO the same scenario for lock-up period like on TWTR. The stock will likely be well above IPO price and we will see a big selloff. Lock-up for GPRO expires on Dec26 I think.
GPRO looks like a sell off
  • #4,979
  • Sep 25, 2014 2:52pm Sep 25, 2014 2:52pm
well looks like I am in the minority thinking we will get a bounce back tomorrow. Anyway, I closed UVXY short puts, tried to get out of SSO short calls, didn't quite get to my level. Have a good evening ya'll...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,980
  • Sep 25, 2014 2:56pm Sep 25, 2014 2:56pm
Quoting The Fool
well looks like I am in the minority thinking we will get a bounce back tomorrow. Anyway, I closed UVXY short puts, tried to get out of SSO short calls, didn't quite get to my level. Have a good evening ya'll...
I have those marked too especially on EWZ from 44.93-45.10
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