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Funny Looking Rectangles & Useless Drivel

  • #581
  • Sep 24, 2014 12:34pm Sep 24, 2014 12:34pm
Quoting Relativity
My work is currently IMO still far from perfection and I am still tuning it....There's a lot of ground to cover but I do believe I have some solid leads. e.g. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post7722179 I suppose I need to continue to improve the modelling.
I briefly looked at the link and it appears to be Elliot based with some added influence from others. Elliot's work is important - he found pattern and it does repeat. It's got a lot of the needed components: symmetry, reflexivity, repeatability, etc. What Elliot, did not understand, or at least what he never allowed the public to know that he understood, was the matter of Magnitude. The all important factor. And, he allowed for human psychology to have input into the trade decision by literally assigning the word "Motive" to his model. I don't knock Elliot at all for doing that - that was his approach. I tend to not overtly allow anything but the raw data to input a trade decision, as for me, trying to evaluate human psychology en mass and especially involving high emotional input, is a bit too risky for me personally. I learned a lot from Elliot, but had to explore my own path eventually.

When Market Phases 3 and the inverse to phases 2 and 4 are present, Elliot Waves become less distinguishable in the shorter time frames. They still exist, but because Magnitudes are compressed throughout, Wave Distortion becomes the norm for Elliot's model and you sit on the sidelines because the model provides no direction.

Some people (not you) moan and complain about Elliot being too difficult to understand. "It is too hard!" "Those wave makes me dizzy!" "I can't see straight anymore because of the waves!" "Those waves hurt my eyes!" I've literally seen people post stuff like that about Elliot. Those people confuse congestion within the model for a lack of clarity about the model. Those two things are not equal and Elliot, too often takes a hit for that which is not fair to him or his work. Elliot Waves are as fundamental to most normal markets as Peanut Butter is to a Peanut Butter and Jelly sandwich. People need to accept his work, realize its limitations, incorporate what they can and then extend what Elliot has placed on the table. Again, I digress.


Quoting Relativity
I suppose I need to discover my own model.
That really is the bottom line. Learn what you can, integrate what makes sense and move on. That is probably the best path for most. Unfortunately, too many people get stuck in "I can't" mode and it ruins their trading career.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #582
  • Sep 24, 2014 12:44pm Sep 24, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting Orly
Then, do you assign negative Deltas to time frames where price is going down, compared to positive Deltas where price is rising, or do you consider all Delta values to be positive real numbers?
I use negative values for esthetic purposes - it really does not matter because the space being evaluated is two dimensional. Often times the negative number is then multiplied by -1 to derive its positive counterpart anyway, whenever it is more mathematically expedient. The Deltas tell you a lot about the "structure of price." As long as there is historical/empirical evidence that supports an emerging Delta, then the potential for price to fulfill that mandate of that not yet developed Delta is said to be significant and then used in a probability calculation.

"Nature abhors a vacuum" - is a really good starting point.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #583
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:05pm Sep 24, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting Orly
... I mean, music is simply changes (Deltas...) in pitch over time, right?
That could be one way to think of it. Frequency, Harmony, Cycles, Mode, Variance, Amplitude, Envelope, etc. All these Delta attributes or characteristics help to determine trade decisions. They all help to define Quality and Behavior.


Quoting Orly
Fascinating stuff. I wonder if you would know a way to convert your algos into musical form and make trading easier by simply listening to the music? Would that idea even pique your interest? http://www.rattraders.com/
Sounds really interesting - no pun intended. Unless it could be made to sound like something from John Williams, or Mahler, etc., probably not at this time. I use a visual panel instead of charts - a Digital GUI. So, I'm really looking at graphics, colors, on screen text messages and symbols inside a GUI for making trade decisions in manual mode.

Hmmmm. I wonder what 'TRO' thinks of the website domain called: www.rattraders.com. I never knew about it until you put it here. Are they copying him, or did he copy them - or are they using the same university study report that he used?
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #584
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:20pm Sep 24, 2014 1:20pm
Oh, like music! Okay. Duh. Now I'm actually starting to catch on. The key is then anticipation of the next phrase, which we do automatically in our heads anyway. that's why music sparks an emotional response.

Yeah, John Williams and the Star Wars soundtrack. I listened to that album until it was bleeding.
Or David Gilmour making that axe sing on Dark Side of the Moon. That would be cool. Subtle differences between phrases that build to a greater climax, with very little wasted licks to tire our ears. One can only hear so many notes, you know.

I don't know TRO, unless it is a temporary restraining order, of which I have several. At least it's not Turtles.
  • #585
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:49pm Sep 24, 2014 1:49pm
Quoting Orly
David Gilmour making that axe sing on Dark Side of the Moon. That would be cool.
Have not heard that one but I will check it out - thanks!

Quoting Orly
I don't know TRO, unless it is a temporary restraining order, of which I have several.
TRO, will never admit to what he actually learned from me, but that is a problem that he has and is no reflection on anyone else:
Inserted Video


If you visit here: http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=2271 then you will get a sense of what I was referring to on the www.rattrader.com site.



Quoting Orly
At least it's not Turtles.
Bell Bottoms and Fros were the leading edge pop-cultural elements of the day, when Richard Dennis, taught people how to trade trends. But, in 1987, things changed - drastically. The Turtles took advantage of a Market Phase 1, and ran it for all it was worth. When you think about where the DOW was back then and compare it to where it is today, had they learned how to deal with the remainder of the market phases (2 through 5), they'd be billionaires today, no doubt.

The trend is your warm and fuzzy friend, until it decides to become Darth Vader. At that point, the Death Star moves into high earth orbit encircling your doom.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #586
  • Edited 5:09pm Sep 24, 2014 3:58pm | Edited 5:09pm
Dark Side of the Moon is, to me, the pinnacle of music of the late '60's, early-'70's. The unique basswork and lead guitar are fantastic. The famous song "Money" has a unique 3/4 time signature. The album was on the Billboard Top 100 for live 37 years or something ridiculous. Holds the record.

But back to it:

When do you suggest building the B2i Bento Box? From the open of a large move in the market, after which a reactive move would be expected? Or during a ranging formation? It seems the placement of the B2i in the range yields very small boxes that has the Fall Line hit almost immediately, whereas placement after a large, perhaps news-driven spike gives somewhat unrealistic expectations.

Addo: Also, I would assume that trading back to the MAs gives a much higher probability of success in general. Do you trade when Price is between the MAs? Should I aim for the red one or the green one?
  • #587
  • Edited 5:59pm Sep 24, 2014 5:37pm | Edited 5:59pm
Quoting Orly
Dark Side of the Moon is, to me, the pinnacle of music of the late '60's, early-'70's.
Just listened to that piece from Pink Floyd, thanks. It catches me as an end of day (Friday) end of week piece that naturally carries you into the weekend after a good week of trading. The other one I like to listen to on Friday's after making my very last trade is: Saturday In The Park, Chicago.

After a particularly bad day of trading, which does not happen too frequently, I really don't mind finishing that day with: Mercy Mercy Me, Marvin Gaye. That pretty much sums up a lousy day of trading. The line "...how much more abuse from man can she stand," typically applies to me at that point.


Quoting Orly
When do you suggest building the B2i Bento Box?
D1 Standard B2i plotted on an H1 Chart, should be used first to get a feel for what should happen. This fixes the structure from the Open to the High and the Low. Remember, you will also have to use a good Magnitude indicator to help you with projecting the Daily Range, that will help you see the Early Entry Windows. D1 structures almost always have some pip potential, but if you want more pips, you have to locate bigger structures with greater variance in both the Primary Legs, which are ultimately used to create the Projection Legs after they are mirrored and flipped into position.

At some point, you will be able to scan an M1 chart and see both Standard and Hybrid time frame B2i structures with the naked eye that have enough pips to trade. Get familiar with the Standard D1 B2i on an H1 Chart, or you can use any lower time frame, just as long as you can clearly distinguish the basic structural limits (Open, HH and LL).

Quoting Orly
Addo: Also, I would assume that trading back to the MAs gives a much higher probability of success in general. Do you trade when Price is between the MAs? Should I aim for the red one or the green one?
Yes. As this one is also between OS1:
http://i58.tinypic.com/b8ad7c.jpg

Note the Green Line is currently being respected as support and its angle (if maintained) intercepts the larger D1 B2i that is now four days old. This was part of the example I posted above showing a failure in Timing and Probability, but where Direction was correct and Magnitude was correct. Now, price is back the Green Line in OS1. OS1 is tapering shut with Green slightly angled up and Red nearing a flat condition. If that condition remains, OS1 has to eventually cross up and price will lead it. That takes price back to the D1 B2i of four days ago, which has not yet been struck due to poor Timing and Probability.

Three "Real Price" ranges are also plotted on the chart, but they show declining price levels which runs away from the B2i Fall Line of four days ago. So, they run counter or against the actually trade. Real Price region 1, has not been seen yet because of the poor Timing. Yet, excluding any news to the downside, there is no fear in the trade because I know where price is located within the price structure. Since I was not paying attention to this pair when the four day old Standard B2i was initially created, I missed the Early Warning Entry Window. That entry would still have this trade in a profitable position - again, a real comfort factor. So, I will Hold the Long position and let the structure play out.

I'm not paying attention to news, nor am I updating this in real time. It is strictly manual B2i from four days ago that has poor Timing on the entry - so I'm using it as an example. Currently back down -25 pips. Was up +54 pips yesterday.

So, yes. You can use OS1, but you need to get familiar with the behavior of price when ever it is performing near both lines. The best way to do that is to study this on the M1 level - making sure you have the right settings for the Double MA (see earlier in the thread). Up to the H1 time frame, the behavior is strikingly similar with respect to OS1. So, right now we are witnessing the "Merge" of price to the OS1 Green on the H1 of this GBPUSD chart. If the typically OS1 crossing behavior continues, price will move UP to above the Red. If this is not a true Os1 crossing, price will violently move DOWN well below the Green. Again, you NEED other indicators that do different things helping you out in this situation and this thread did not cover that. The OS1 was provide to give a little extra framework for what I do with B2i.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #588
  • Sep 24, 2014 5:59pm Sep 24, 2014 5:59pm
Edit to answer added question.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #589
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:17pm Sep 24, 2014 6:17pm
Comparing the range bar swings to the fixed timeframe (H1x24 = D1) v1 B2i.

http://i59.tinypic.com/9tpqih.png
  • #590
  • Edited 8:50pm Sep 24, 2014 8:27pm | Edited 8:50pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
I briefly looked at the link and it appears to be Elliot based with some added influence from others. Elliot's work is important - he found pattern and it does repeat. It's got a lot of the needed components: symmetry, reflexivity, repeatability, etc. What Elliot, did not understand, or at least what he never allowed the public to know that he understood, was the matter of Magnitude. The all important factor.
Yes its Elliot based with influence from;
MasterForex-V
Ray Barros
Goodman Wave Theory; 1-2-3 trend pattern
Constance Brown; how to correctly apply and use the fib levels to find a congestion market. I recall that you mentioned reading her book. Yes, it isn't an easy read, but the pictures certainly helped;
http://i57.tinypic.com/r8trfs.png


Quoting iDoubleStoch
And, he allowed for human psychology to have input into the trade decision by literally assigning the word "Motive" to his model. I don't knock Elliot at all for doing that - that was his approach. I tend to not overtly allow anything but the raw data to input a trade decision, as for me, trying to evaluate human psychology en mass and especially involving high emotional input, is a bit too risky for me personally. I learned a lot from Elliot, but had to explore my own path eventually.
Ray Barros has the same idea and he took it further by applying context using Wyckoff's principles. This is where I might had depart from Barro's ideas; his methodology is overall 'rule based discretionary'.
http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/a-thin-line-3172.html
http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/the-t...e-ii-3197.html
http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/the-t...-iii-3198.html
http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/qa-th...line-3199.html


Quoting iDoubleStoch
When Market Phases 3 and the inverse to phases 2 and 4 are present, Elliot Waves become less distinguishable in the shorter time frames. They still exist, but because Magnitudes are compressed throughout, Wave Distortion becomes the norm for Elliot's model and you sit on the sidelines because the model provides no direction. Some people (not you) moan and complain about Elliot being too difficult to understand. "It is too hard!" "Those wave makes me dizzy!" "I can't see straight anymore because of the waves!" "Those waves hurt my eyes!" I've literally...
Yes I found out about this issue early and realized that MasterForex-V appears to have the solution, by treating identification of market states and Elliot theory as 2 independent tools. Then looking for signal confluence from each tool.
http://www.masterforex-v.su/002_401.htm
http://masterforex-v.su/002_302.htm
I don't see it as a problem as well, at least from what I gathered and learnt from Barros + Masterforex-V and tested myself. If a lower priceframe is in congestion/flat, but the higher priceframe is still in a uptrend, the bias is still up until proven otherwise. This is because the quality of the flat can lead to either a uptrend continuation pattern or reversal pattern. For the latter pattern is the precise reason why I am now even more interested in B2i (the above post comparing the swings and the B2i).

http://i60.tinypic.com/21e9udt.png

Its in the area I've circled in red where I see correct identification and use of B2i is the solution. (From http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7718918#post7718918)
  • #591
  • Sep 24, 2014 10:10pm Sep 24, 2014 10:10pm
Double quote ---An MT4 Indicator that calculates DV for you is great to have and its output can be used inside an EA, or its outright formula can be used in an EA as well - it depends on the developer.---

anybody know of a mt4 DV proxy thanks
There has never been a statue erected in honor of a critic
  • #592
  • Sep 25, 2014 7:17am Sep 25, 2014 7:17am
Quoting Relativity
This is because the quality of the flat can lead to either a uptrend continuation pattern or reversal pattern. For the latter pattern is the precise reason why I am now even more interested in B2i (the above post comparing the swings and the B2i). {image} Its in the area I've circled in red where I see correct identification and use of B2i is the solution. (From http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7718918#post7718918)
So the B2i is marking a special kind of flat that says something about the probability of becoming a trend continuation vs reversal?


Quoting iDoubleStoch
Remember, you will also have to use a good Magnitude indicator to help you with projecting the Daily Range
Do you have any hints regarding discovering magnitude? You spoke a couple years ago about ADR being a decent beginner's entry to the idea, but I really haven't come up with any ideas on how to expand on it or make it better. I'm not quite a fan of using averages because market volatility (or rather day to day pip range) moves more in spikes rather than along a line. My attempt at creating a pivot indicator using 20 ema data led to ranges that were slow to change their values day to day. Helpful in the general sense of where price was likely to go, and it did a good job of it, but not much help in actually predicting a min/max value which is what I was aiming for. Perhaps the concept is similar to or requires some exploration of concepts similar to the Meridian? How high do I set the bar when it comes to predicting min/max values?
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
  • #593
  • Sep 25, 2014 7:27am Sep 25, 2014 7:27am
Here's my version of this cool funny looking rectangle system applied to EURUSD on the weekly timeframe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-w1-forex-capital-markets-2.png Size: 57 KB
  • #594
  • Sep 25, 2014 7:36am Sep 25, 2014 7:36am
Here's one that completed last night that I used to take some profit on EURAUD on the H4 timeframe
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud-h4-oanda-division1.png Size: 49 KB
  • #595
  • Sep 25, 2014 8:26am Sep 25, 2014 8:26am
Quoting LiquidGenius
{quote} So the B2i is marking a special kind of flat that says something about the probability of becoming a trend continuation vs reversal?
Yes, seems so. I am attempting to confirm it. It would take me some time as you know that I am a little allergic to time frames
  • #596
  • Sep 25, 2014 11:51am Sep 25, 2014 11:51am
Quoting Relativity
Comparing the range bar swings to the fixed timeframe (H1x24 = D1) v1 B2i.
The range bars with B2i do look rather interesting and I am glad you had a chance to read Contance Brown on confluence. It is the way she goes about establishing the initial range that matters so much. Congratulations on the un-conventional thought process and continued success. It looks like you are investigating some good paths for developing B2i into something unique for own use. It is good to see someone doing real study and research. That is the path that leads to breakthroughs.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #597
  • Sep 25, 2014 11:55am Sep 25, 2014 11:55am
Quoting pip.monkey
Double quote ---An MT4 Indicator that calculates DV for you is great to have and its output can be used inside an EA, or its outright formula can be used in an EA as well - it depends on the developer.--- anybody know of a mt4 DV proxy thanks

I've given the baseline calculations. No doubt that there are those on FF with the coding experience to build one.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #598
  • Sep 25, 2014 12:46pm Sep 25, 2014 12:46pm
Quoting LiquidGenius
Do you have any hints regarding discovering magnitude?
I've given a lot of them over the years and quite a few in this thread. One form of Magnitude is movement between a lowest low and a highest high within the same bar. ATR is an example - you can simply start with that. My primary Magnitude Indicator is called iOmegaPrime. It is just like ATR, but with some additional components that make it better in several respects. It is not an indicator that I share, however. All other forms of Magnitude that I use come from Delta Indicators, and as one might easily imagine, that form of Magnitude is directly related to the distance created by the market between the price points that establish the range of the Delta. I then dump all those Magnitude values into a spreadsheet and go to work on finding relationships in the data. Is Magnitude expanding in one time frame while contracting in another? What is the Magnitude with upside bias above a certain price level as compared to Magnitude with downside bias below that same price level? The degree to which you obtain answers from your data will be matched by the creativity you put into your questions.

Data loves to talk, but few people ever query their data with interesting questions. Compile the data, ask it interesting questions and it will spill the beans. Any movement in price from Point "A" to Point "B" is Magnitude. When I first began my study of Magnitude, I took raw market data:

http://i57.tinypic.com/10fcifr.jpg

I calculated the distance between certain price points that I wanted to explore and ended up with metadata about the market:

http://i57.tinypic.com/fm7wbm.jpg

I created names for each type of metadata that was distinct and unique and then created a unique calculation that gave me some of my very first prototype indicators:

http://i62.tinypic.com/29vjxxd.jpg


I then took those indicators, aggregated them with logical wrapper into an Indicator Cluster and then generated some algorithmic trade logic to produce a Trade Signal:

http://i62.tinypic.com/24cunuc.jpg

This signal is called the "Barometer," it is one of many. It belongs to a very old set of original prototype indicators developed years ago. As the system evolved, I then began the work of integration. In this example, I took "Barometer" and began the creative engineering aspect of trading system design to create Signal Clusters:

http://i57.tinypic.com/2cngoew.jpg

Those Signal Clusters produce Primary Trade Signals which are then sent to the MetaBrain component of the system for a vote. There are lots of other components to the system that do other things such as the Dynamic Real-Time Targeting Package (which is a system within a system), different kinds of databases, etc.

But, what did it all begin with? Raw Data and Deltas containing information about Magnitude. It is all about Magnitude. No Magnitude, no Market - everybody might as well pack-up and go home. Magnitude leads to everything else.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #599
  • Sep 25, 2014 12:55pm Sep 25, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting DojiSan
Here's one that completed last night that I used to take some profit on EURAUD on the H4 timeframe.

Taking profit is always nice. I hope you can find ways to integrate it into your own trading style. Good job.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #600
  • Sep 25, 2014 1:13pm Sep 25, 2014 1:13pm
You have been wonderfully magnanimous regarding your trading technique and I certainly appreciate it.

Your fascination with medical conditions might want to take a look at the question of autism and the rampant epidemic it has become in the US.

Inserted Video


This is the first of four videos by Dr. Russell Blaylock in regard to the autism question and the too early and unnecessary use of vaccines on our children. Fascinating stuff.
The big Pharma will tell you that it is not the mercury in the vaccine preservative thimerosol that causes autism. Therefore, they contend, vaccines are not responsible for the incredible rise in the number of autism cases. Dr. Blaylock agrees and calls their arguments the ultimate red herring in the debate.
He contends that the development of the brain is hindered by introducing vaccines when the body is beginning to form its own immune system. That's right, babies don't even have a semi-developed immune system until they are sixteen months of age. All their immunity is gotten from the mother until that time.

The problem is introducing a virus, literally, into the "code" that the gut and the brain use to develop the immune system in a normal fashion. He calls it the immune cascade and if that development is sidetracked by unnecessary "junk," then autism is the likely result.

This idea can also be pursued in what you were talking about with the diabetic neuropathy in the gut of severe diabetics. They will also develop immune problems, lack of cognitive function, along with many other illnesses that can be associated with the brain and the gut not speaking to each other on a proper basis.

Have a look at Blaylock's arguments, if you have time, and let me know what you think.

I have a son who is thirteen years old, is still in diapers and has never spoken a word in his life. I am certain that the interruption of the proper development of the immune cascade in my son is the cause of his autism.
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