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  • #4,921
  • Sep 24, 2014 11:34am Sep 24, 2014 11:34am
Quoting StrayDog
Small-Caps & Mid-Caps Break 2009 Uptrend Line I find breaking the trendline more important than so called Death Cross (50MA crossing down the 200MA on daily chart). Thinking of some bearish call spreads, like maybe 113/115 Oct17, for $0.73 credit.
I think bear call spreads are gonna be pretty easy to do across the board on the indices, thru October, IWM & QQQ, especially. I have an SSO bear call spread, $123/$125, for 10/18. I like the leveraged index etf's but boy I have had a couple big losers when they ran past my short legs. Pay well when you win, hurt much when you lose....one loss always seems to erase about three wins.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,922
  • Sep 24, 2014 11:34am Sep 24, 2014 11:34am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ..I'm a chickenshit. Pretty volatile situation, though...a single poll or news article comes out could pop EWZ either way...
Same thing with me atm. Can't find something that I really like, so still looking, reluctant to take action. Good bounce for NQ today...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,923
  • Sep 24, 2014 11:43am Sep 24, 2014 11:43am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I might do a 10/3 $45/$42 bull put spread for $0.50 credit....10/3 $45 put's at 32 delta...risky....but I think EWZ will bottom out here above $45 pre-election....finger on the trigger....will wait till the close...I'm a chickenshit. Pretty volatile situation, though...a single poll or news article comes out could pop EWZ either way...
Or....I might do a 9/26 $45.5/$42.5 bull put spread for $0.24 credit....9/26 $45.5 put's at 30 delta....gamma kamikaze mission....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,924
  • Sep 24, 2014 12:00pm Sep 24, 2014 12:00pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Same thing with me atm. Can't find something that I really like, so still looking, reluctant to take action. Good bounce for NQ today...
well sport, EWZ is gonna be a plum ready to pick til at least the end of next week - no need to be in a rush
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,925
  • Sep 24, 2014 12:22pm Sep 24, 2014 12:22pm
Brazil...lalala la lala

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,926
  • Sep 24, 2014 12:30pm Sep 24, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well sport, EWZ is gonna be a plum ready to pick til at least the end of next week - no need to be in a rush
Yes . That is on my "to do list". We have a lot of time to prepare the best strategy for EWZ. Looking forward for that.
I will just boost my chart time, trying to find something else interesting. Don't want to chase trades.

In beginning of my option trading, I was "intimidated" by some stocks and wide verticals, but exactly that was the play to do. Like $5 wide spreads on more expensive stocks - AMZN, LNKD, BIDU... etc. Of course, CMG, hahaha...

​This is a tastytrade video on CMG ER's trade that goes from loser to winner, after 3 rolls... one of the vids that I marked to watch again, for better understanding (skip first 3 minutes of joking time):
CMG 09/18/2014
(Anatomy of a Burrito! Tom and Tony take a look at how their CMG earnings trade went against them but they played it out until they were right!)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,927
  • Sep 24, 2014 12:46pm Sep 24, 2014 12:46pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yes . That is on my "to do list". We have a lot of time to prepare the best strategy for EWZ. Looking forward for that. I will just boost my chart time, trying to find something else interesting. Don't want to chase trades. In beginning of my option trading, I was "intimidated" by some stocks and wide verticals, but exactly that was the play to do. Like $5 wide spreads on more expensive stocks
Well, like the old carpenters say, "an inch in a house is a foot in a barn." - so of course a $5 spread is no big deal if you are way out past 1 sigma on PCLN, etc, and the beauty of those is you can be way out there and still pick up worthwhile credit on a $5 spread (sometimes). It just dings your margin, though, if you have little accounts like us...so the hunt is always for the best roi...

Anyway, I sold YHOO $38.5 puts for Friday expiry against the $36 long calls sitting worthless from last week's bull put spreads - just $0.11, but given the number it buys food/gas for a month...I don't think YHOO wants to drop...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,928
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:16pm Sep 24, 2014 1:16pm
Ewz iv is at a 52 week high
  • #4,929
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:35pm Sep 24, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
Ewz iv is at a 52 week high
might be making new highs next week, too. See anything you want to scalp yet for Friday's close?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,930
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:36pm Sep 24, 2014 1:36pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
I'm already in GDX LONG CALLS but if anyone is interested Fridays expiry is trading for just 6c for $23 calls with the underly trading at 22.55 as of now GDX Sep 2014 23.000 call (GDX140926C00023000) -OPR 0.06 {image} 0.04(40.00%) 15:18 Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) -NYSEArca 22.55 {image} 0.01(0.04%) 15:34 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
I have rolled out to next weeks expiration on my GDX $23 calls for 17c, this is the second time I have rolled increasing my break even with commissions to 32c by next Friday 3rd OCTOBER, price of GDX now is $22.22

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
-NYSEArca
22.22 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.32(1.42%) 19:26 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #4,931
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:38pm Sep 24, 2014 1:38pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} might be making new highs next week, too. See anything you want to scalp yet for Friday's close?
I'll be checking tomorrow for potential trades, if we get a bounce in VIX from its current position. 13.77 and can break that 15.00 then I'm looking for puts

VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
-Chicago Options
13.77 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 1.16(7.77%) 19:22
  • #4,932
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:41pm Sep 24, 2014 1:41pm
New York Fed Head Dudley was on the wires this morning, dovish, saying Fed should wait to hike & and warning against the USD strength. So markets catch a fair risk-on breeze.

Fed heads are done for the week, though, and there's some data on the calendar for Thur-Fri. Good results can lift equities but also beg the question, "Does this improving econ data mean the Fed may hike sooner?" The old good news is bad news meme. And the bombers keep bombing in the caliphate. So....I think we will see an up or flat day Thur and a selloff Friday.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,933
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:43pm Sep 24, 2014 1:43pm
in addition to the roll I placed on GDX I also took a trade on a lower strike the £22.50 call for this Fridays expiration for 12c, GDX was a $22.20 now at $22.25

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
-NYSEArca
22.25 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.29(1.30%) 19:39 - Nasdaq Real Time Price

GDX Sep 2014 22.500 call (GDX140926C00022500)
-OPR
0.12 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.17(58.62%) 19:19
  • #4,934
  • Sep 24, 2014 2:23pm Sep 24, 2014 2:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I think bear call spreads are gonna be pretty easy to do across the board on the indices, thru October,
hope to see this rally extend tomorrow and I will be hunting bear spreads on Friday....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,935
  • Sep 24, 2014 2:35pm Sep 24, 2014 2:35pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} hope to see this rally extend tomorrow and I will be hunting bear spreads on Friday....
I'd like to see it fall on either the Durable Goods or Unemployment Claims :-)I've been selling my usual ES mini contacts on the recent pull back and I just closed all positions with this nice uptick today; so I'm ready to reload on negative data tomorrow....let's see where it moves
  • #4,936
  • Sep 24, 2014 2:43pm Sep 24, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting njr
{quote} I'd like to see it fall on either the Durable Goods or Unemployment Claims :-)I've been selling my usual ES mini contacts on the recent pull back and I just closed all positions with this nice uptick today; so I'm ready to reload on negative data tomorrow....let's see where it moves
could be, but I was thinking we'd cruise thru that stuff Thur and then catch some volatility on a gargantuan GDP revision Friday - the latter been telegraphed all week.

Maybe none of the above, but I'd bet we'll see volatility elevated at least up to the mid-terms

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...lections,_2014
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,937
  • Sep 24, 2014 2:47pm Sep 24, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} but I'd bet we'll see volatility elevated at least up to the mid-terms http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...lections,_2014
I hear ya TF....

http://www.marketpulse.com/20140717/...mpact-markets/

"Midterm elections historically have been disruptive to markets, and the possible shift in control this fall will likely make for a great deal of political fireworks,” said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at RidgeWorth Investments."
  • #4,938
  • Sep 24, 2014 3:01pm Sep 24, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting njr
{quote} I hear ya TF....
Yep. Hey, good to see you around njr. Don't you live to ski? Won't be long now, I guess. First Fall rains hitting here this week, just a few more weeks & we'll start seeing new snow up on Mt. Rainier. Well, I'm out, had enuf of this freak show for a day.

Tschüß
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,939
  • Edited 6:55pm Sep 24, 2014 6:42pm | Edited 6:55pm
All open trades from a Roth IRA I started trading from this Summer. Started with half the allowable yearly contribution @ $3,250 and working it up to $5k now. Tortoise and Hare. All gains tax-free. If you're in the US I urge you to look into the benefits of Roth's, if you have not already.

Anyway, small account trading takes some skill. You have to above all protect that equity. I say that and someday I will be good at doing it.

The UVXY bull put spread a case in point. I expect I will be OK there and will wait til next Monday to start freaking out if UVXY keeps dropping. S&P would have to put in a new high to push UVXY under $22. I was looking for $0.20 and got within $0.05 of that near the open today and then equities took off. Prolly coulda woulda shoulda squeezed that trigger when I had the chance for about a $0.30 net.

If I had I could have come back to the 10/18 SPY $210 long calls and sold some vertical calls against those. I still can, but probably not in equal number because margin ties up in short put UVXY. If SPY will rise a little more tomorrow I could sell $205 calls against it for >$0.20 net (the SPY long calls were part of a debit spread earlier and is sitting at $0.03 debit.)

But if I do that, I have to be careful to leave myself some free margin with which to roll down the UVXY short puts.....margin management a juggling act.

On the bright side, the EUO could get another leg down in EUR/USD and get to its itm strike. I am not very good at holding things & am a scalper at heart. But I have been patient there and have always been in profit. If I see $0.50 net gain there I am likely to close it.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,940
  • Sep 25, 2014 12:42am Sep 25, 2014 12:42am
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/forge...204247978.html

The Russell heading for a break of support at 1,082 and then a freefall to 862? Would correspond to IWM breaking below 108 and dropping to 86...ouch...a >20% correction from where we are now. Some ways to trade this scenario...debit diagonal put spread - will need to fine tune this idea...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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