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  • #4,901
  • Sep 23, 2014 8:01am Sep 23, 2014 8:01am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I think that is a good idea, Oct10 expiry. I just did not follow much about predictions of after election effects to the market depending on which candidate win, but since the IV rank is at 100, maybe some wide IC would provide enough credit... will look into it later. But IV crush on Monday Oct6 is something that will happen. Edit: Also, maybe the best timing would be to enter an IC or some credit spreads with Oct10 options on Friday Oct3, and exit on Monday?
i.v. will surely be elevated up through the elections weekend, lots of ways to play it. If the elections do not produce a >50% winner, then they have to have a runoff between the top two a few weeks later, so the EWZ volatility could persist somewhat thru October, but there should be an i.v. break on elections day for sure.

How you doin, man? Ready to get back on the horse?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,902
  • Sep 23, 2014 8:10am Sep 23, 2014 8:10am
EWZ falling hard again pre-market. Check the holdings of EWZ and see that VALE is major, almost 7%, also PBR, commods been getting crushed by the strong USD. VALE at a multi-year low, iron ore prices reflected. Election outcome might not lift it too much, but the charts indicate room for a bounce anyway. I might do a diagonal on it....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-23_vale.png Size: 144 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,903
  • Sep 23, 2014 8:45am Sep 23, 2014 8:45am
Quoting The Fool
VALE at a multi-year low, iron ore prices reflected. Election outcome might not lift it too much, but the charts indicate room for a bounce anyway. I might do a diagonal on it...
legged into Nov $13 calls at the open for $0.12, looking for a bit of a bounce and will look to sell for quick profit or sell Oct calls for a debit spread...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,904
  • Sep 23, 2014 9:37am Sep 23, 2014 9:37am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} legged into Nov $13 calls at the open for $0.12, looking for a bit of a bounce and will look to sell for quick profit or sell Oct calls for a debit spread...
sold the 10/18 $12.50 for $0.08, sitting at a $0.04 debit.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,905
  • Sep 23, 2014 10:31am Sep 23, 2014 10:31am
Bought some USO calls as I'm hoping oil starts to climb a bit, I'm long USO $35 calls for 12c and for Friday's expiry

USO is trading at $34.47

United States Oil ETF (USO)
-NYSEArca
34.47 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.28(0.83%) 16:30 - Nasdaq Real Time Price

USO Sep 2014 35.000 call (USO140926C00035000)
-OPR
0.12 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.05(71.43%) 16:06
  • #4,906
  • Sep 23, 2014 11:35am Sep 23, 2014 11:35am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} .... How you doin, man? Ready to get back on the horse?
I am in fifth gear with catching up on the learning portion for last week... That book that njr mentioned, (I think on page 240 of this thread - The Complete Guide to Option Selling) seems very interesting, I read just the Introduction part so far, watching some videos and so on... Trying to focus on what I did good, and what I did wrong in past period, and to just "rinse and repeat" the good stuff...

Wanted to trade BBBY ER's, but prolly will skip it. This was idea, a IC
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BBBY_CIC.png Size: 103 KB


This stock have weeklies, and $0.50 strikes, BUT the bid/ask spread is too wide for my taste... I really hate to see a >0.20 bid/ask spread on a $63 stock, and that is a reason that I will not do it (and I hate retailers ).

Other than that, I am also interested in selling premium on EWZ. Did not have time to properly look at charts for my favourite stocks... And my account is ALL CASH now, no positions, so I will put something on it, want to USE the money.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,907
  • Sep 23, 2014 11:42am Sep 23, 2014 11:42am
Quoting StrayDog
This stock have weeklies, and $0.50 strikes, BUT the bid/ask spread is too wide for my taste... I really hate to see a >0.20 bid/ask spread on a $63 stock....
Hm... bid/ask spread contracted to 0.11 - 0.12... just for the record... Still, this stock has some massive gaps, I assume majority of them were ER's.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,908
  • Sep 23, 2014 11:58am Sep 23, 2014 11:58am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} This stock have weeklies, and $0.50 strikes, BUT the bid/ask spread is too wide for my taste... I really hate to see a >0.20 bid/ask spread on a $63 stock, and that is a reason that I will not do it (and I hate retailers ). Other than that, I am also interested in selling premium on EWZ. Did not have time to properly look at charts for my favourite stocks... And my account is ALL CASH now, no positions, so I will put something on it, want to USE the money.
BBBY, ya I looked at that & saw wide spreads and dismissed it. EWZ is an interesting play off the elections volatility, just playing the volatility and its post-election crash I'd bet is gonna be the best way to go there. I might also do a cheap otm call debit spread and maybe leave an opening for a sharp upterm after the votes, as shown in some posts above.

Otherwise my UVXY bull put spread (10/3 $22/$20 - $0.60 credit) will make that account about 12% in 2 weeks max. I'm in TLT 10/18 $119/$122 bear call spread for $0.20, second time I have shorted against long $122 calls. Closed last of my YHOO bull put spreads today, wisht I'd done it Friday, but Oh well, small profits are ok. I'm in mostly cash, too, didn't really make it in anything for a general slide in equities. Thinking about what to do....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,909
  • Sep 23, 2014 1:33pm Sep 23, 2014 1:33pm
did a 10/18 $125/$123 SSO bear call spread for $0.60, a bet that the S&P high won't be touched again for the next few weeks. Will manage out at less than full profit if we keep getting good drops in the index, hopefully by end of next week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,910
  • Edited Sep 24, 2014 12:10am Sep 23, 2014 11:56pm | Edited Sep 24, 2014 12:10am
Quoting The Fool
I did a 10/3 UVXY bull put spread this morning, $19/22 - a $0.60 credit...looking for volatility to stay up this week, or at least not make any new lows. All-time (last Friday) low for UVXY $22.22....
I have been doing this bull put spread all year and not lost money on any of them, although some work out better than others. It's best to peg the short puts on the monthly strikes, which will have better bid/ask spreads. The weekly strike I chose above will have an atrocious spread near the end, so I will likely just let it expire worthless, unless I'm forced to do otherwise...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-23_uvxy.png Size: 15 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,911
  • Sep 24, 2014 12:46am Sep 24, 2014 12:46am
YHOO put up a good fight on a risk-off day today & clawed back some yardage. All the talking heads are saying YHOO is grossly undervalued, with the current share price reflecting ONLY the company's cash and remaining stake in BABA, and discounting its core business to ZERO. So if we get a few rebound days in the US stock markets, it looks like YHOO could regain at least to its pre-BABA ipo static level, around $42.50...

The 9/26 $41 calls are $0.07/$0.08, 10/3 $41.50 calls are $0.18/$0.20
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-23_yhoo_001.png Size: 52 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,912
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:39am Sep 24, 2014 6:39am
Hi All. Just about to dip my toes into option trading so hopefully i will be able to add some input into this thread.
Enter Signature
  • #4,913
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:43am Sep 24, 2014 6:43am
Quoting darrenware
Hi All. Just about to dip my toes into option trading so hopefully i will be able to add some input into this thread.
welcome. volatility picking up lately and trading has been good. good luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,914
  • Sep 24, 2014 8:24am Sep 24, 2014 8:24am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I have been doing this bull put spread all year and not lost money on any of them...}
That is one of the clear advantages of options spreads trading... I know some people that lost big bucks trying to long that money burner outright...

Quoting The Fool
All the talking heads are saying YHOO is grossly undervalued, with the current share price reflecting ONLY the company's cash and remaining stake in BABA, and discounting its core business to ZERO. So if we get a few rebound days in the US stock markets, it looks like YHOO could regain at least to its pre-BABA ipo static level, around $42.50... The 9/26 $41 calls are $0.07/$0.08, 10/3 $41.50 calls are $0.18/$0.20 {image}
I agree, that story about valuations is an old one, and it can go again UP. Pre BABA IPO talks, valuations talks etc, I did not have YHOO on my option trading radar... Big tech names have good options, and on a day that everything was m/l down or sideways, FB was up... On that stock, just pick your bull put spread and wait... In the meantime, you can scalp around existing position. That WAS the play, in hindsight...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,915
  • Sep 24, 2014 9:37am Sep 24, 2014 9:37am
I'm already in GDX LONG CALLS but if anyone is interested Fridays expiry is trading for just 6c for $23 calls with the underly trading at 22.55 as of now

GDX Sep 2014 23.000 call (GDX140926C00023000)
-OPR
0.06 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.04(40.00%) 15:18

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
-NYSEArca
22.55 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.01(0.04%) 15:34 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #4,916
  • Sep 24, 2014 9:40am Sep 24, 2014 9:40am
Quoting Cecil Gee
I'm already in GDX LONG CALLS but if anyone is interested Fridays expiry is trading for just 6c for $23 calls with the underly trading at 22.55 as of now GDX Sep 2014 23.000 call (GDX140926C00023000) -OPR 0.06 {image} 0.04(40.00%) 15:18 Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) -NYSEArca 22.55 {image} 0.01(0.04%) 15:34 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
Good luck, Cecil. I'm watching EWZ, looks like it will probably find a floor above $45...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,917
  • Sep 24, 2014 9:49am Sep 24, 2014 9:49am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Good luck, Cecil. I'm watching EWZ, looks like it will probably find a floor above $45...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz...rtner=yahootix

You can make a case for EWZ rebounding on the elections, regardless of who wins. But it's worrisome that the 10/5 elections are likely to be inconclusive & will head to a runoff later on.Also, strong USD and threat of tightening money supply play negatively on the emerging market stocks generally, so...what to do?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,918
  • Sep 24, 2014 10:59am Sep 24, 2014 10:59am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz...rtner=yahootix You can make a case for EWZ rebounding on the elections, regardless of who wins. But it's worrisome that the 10/5 elections are likely to be inconclusive & will head to a runoff later on.Also, strong USD and threat of tightening money supply play negatively on the emerging market stocks generally, so...what to do?
I was waiting for 45.10 but it looks as though it bounced of the 200 day
  • #4,919
  • Sep 24, 2014 11:11am Sep 24, 2014 11:11am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I was waiting for 45.10 but it looks as though it bounced of the 200 day
I might do a 10/3 $45/$42 bull put spread for $0.50 credit....10/3 $45 put's at 32 delta...risky....but I think EWZ will bottom out here above $45 pre-election....finger on the trigger....will wait till the close...I'm a chickenshit. Pretty volatile situation, though...a single poll or news article comes out could pop EWZ either way...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,920
  • Sep 24, 2014 11:22am Sep 24, 2014 11:22am
Small-Caps & Mid-Caps Break 2009 Uptrend Line

I find breaking the trendline more important than so called Death Cross (50MA crossing down the 200MA on daily chart).
Thinking of some bearish call spreads, like maybe 113/115 Oct17, for $0.73 credit.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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