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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #16,141
  • Sep 21, 2014 3:14am Sep 21, 2014 3:14am
Quoting Deutschland
You must read this research {image} {image}

nice readings - thank you for sharing


but we should not forget to look at their success rate of their proposed trades to clients.

Here we are:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.jpg Size: 252 KB


Compare that with the following what their prop desk has achieved in the past:


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ahead-...ade-perfection

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...money-all-2013 (only to show a few)
  • #16,142
  • Sep 21, 2014 4:41am Sep 21, 2014 4:41am
Quoting Deutschland
You must read this research {image} {image}
Lets hope they do start to raising rates, that would be one heal of easy FOMC trades in future.
  • #16,143
  • Sep 21, 2014 6:32am Sep 21, 2014 6:32am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Its amazing isnt it. Really like the jump feature hehe. In decades or centuries Matrix movie will be set on wall along austrian economists, not being a science fiction, but rather being a prediction. There is one wierd gap though in economy of robot development. Robots are actively stealing jobs of people, look for Apple, Amazon, Google and other industries robotization, those are thousands if not milions in total jobs replaced, which has negative impact on whole economy, but positive for those mega companies. And then from another end it...

They say, that the development/production/maintenance/programming of robots create high paid jobs, and the robots are stealing low paid jobs

But in the end, I think, there has money to be saved. Otherwise the robots would be not economical. Wouldn't they?
  • #16,144
  • Sep 21, 2014 6:43am Sep 21, 2014 6:43am
http://rtd.rt.com/films/crimea-for-dummies/#part-1


Crimea for dummies


For his first film project American filmmaker Miguel Francis chose the highly controversial subject of Crimea and how it was reunited with Russia. He travels to the beautiful Peninsula to see the current situation first hand and to explore its history and cultural heritage. He takes in some of Crimea’s tourist attractions and historical sites while talking to local people about their attitudes to becoming Russian citizens.
  • #16,145
  • Sep 21, 2014 7:37am Sep 21, 2014 7:37am
From a volume analysis point of view, I can define two jumping areas:

2744-2760

and

2622-2671


all +/- 8 pips


we have actually formed a new distribution zone spanning roughly from 2850-2980

what would be the purpose of this zone, when the next zone would be 2744-2760 yet again?


When we can agree, that EU is set to drop further down in the months to come, would it not be more logical to surpass the most looked at 2750 support area and then test it from the underside?


What do you guys/gals think?

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  • #16,146
  • Sep 21, 2014 8:02am Sep 21, 2014 8:02am
Quoting infinitus
From a volume analysis point of view, I can define two jumping areas: 2744-2760 and 2622-2671 all +/- 8 pips we have actually formed a new distribution zone spanning roughly from 2850-2980 what would be the purpose of this zone, when the next zone would be 2744-2760 yet again? When we can agree, that EU is set to drop further down in the months to come, would it not be more logical to surpass the most looked at 2750 support area and then test it from the underside? What do you guys/gals think? {image}
Agree, EU will tank lower from technical view. This interest rate hiking of FED is just one additional window that will defenetly confirm that if they plan to do it.
In any case shorts on table all the way, until something drastic changes EU stays bearish.
  • #16,147
  • Sep 21, 2014 8:03am Sep 21, 2014 8:03am
Euro down for sure and this 8 pips are real deal. (the real value is 7.8 pips)
8 is stronger when is close to strong level. Also 16 works.

Euro will go down cos of fundamental reason first. Strong Dollar its not only against Euro. For the same fundamental reasons Jen also down (up on the chart) NZD and AUD. Better to say Strong Dollar and we see the big picture.
  • #16,148
  • Sep 21, 2014 10:20am Sep 21, 2014 10:20am
So I think agreement is that EU is heading further down.

But where will it consolidate, that is the question?


Since EU seems to have traced out a multiple 1-2 moves (EW wise) we may end up with some smaller wave 4 consolidations on several wave degrees.

That would mean that we may see a choppy ride further down.


Then the question is:

is it worth to cover short and long the retracements

or better to hold core short position?
  • #16,149
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:24am Sep 21, 2014 11:24am
2750 it s now the problem. Dollar Index just create new high on big charts. AUD, NZD, JPY are the same on strong levels to break, or not. Hard to predict where will consolidate. First we have to see next week if we break this levels. This Friday I don t see profit taking on JPY or other Major pair. Only Pound, cos of recent long on Vote. On Euro, it s just the beginning of a big wave that will last till June. I don t know how much will retrace, when will retrace, but fundamental it s hard to see good numbers for next 3 months that will put the Euro on Long. Inflation it s very low and every new release move down the target of inflation for next year. That increase the the chances for Stimulus and Euro also down. If I were a big shark, I would take profit at 10 of December only by looking on data.

Big chances to stop this week cos on 3 November we have ECB. That mean, only 1 week to trade before some profit taking on next Friday.
  • #16,150
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:32am Sep 21, 2014 11:32am
http://www.buysilverovergold.com/push-gold-backed-yuan/

Its happening. Now we should expect battle on gold princing enter another higher level. This means even more exponential Comex manipulation from main players, as low-middle level players move more towards Shanghai buying and selling most likey. So this is now getting interesting. At moment Shanghai itself cant do much for bulls probably becouse the amount of free thrown contracts from Comex is still massive, but what should change the game drastically is release of Chinas gold reserves once they are ready to back currency. That will simply tell someone does not have gold anymore, who states he does (counting 7000 tones of China minus 3500 tones that they acumulated trough their mining in past 8 years, means half of that gold has came from elsewhere not counted in demand), so this will have significant bull push, then actual backing will increase yuan strenght, making Comex shorting even more expensive. The end scenario is obvious, but the question still remains how quickly will manipulation become obsolete once things start to move, and when its time to buy physical. Funny thing is the longer China waits the stronger position they have, becouse west is eager to supply all they need, stripping Europe of its gold, and possibly USA too, so the longer they wait the stronger their currency should be in the end and its demand due to pressure on gold standard and reserves from EU, just like dollar has done trough WW2, USA waited long enough for Europe to be ruined, and offered the only strong currency on the end.
  • #16,151
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:41am Sep 21, 2014 11:41am
Quoting barbones
2750 it s now the problem. Dollar Index just create new high on big charts. AUD, NZD, JPY are the same on strong levels to break, or not. Hard to predict where will consolidate. First we have to see next week if we break this levels. This Friday I don t see profit taking on JPY or other Major pair. Only Pound, cos of recent long on Vote. On Euro, it s just the beginning of a big wave that will last till June. I don t know how much will retrace, when will retrace, but fundamental it s hard to see good numbers for next 3 months that will put the Euro...
I find it interesting that so many people think fundamental moves being central banks have so much to do with inflation. CPI itself does not move EU more than a flee on elephant. Trend fundamental moves dont come from there, nor do the central bank decisions, despite what you read on news. We all know CPI numbers are bigger than officially posted, and we know central banks do not work for increase of lifestyle to people, despite what economic basics for central banks say.
With that said i do agree with your technical analysis.

As for EU i think first target is to go bellow 1.2800, simply if you look on daily market structure, and last two candles, bulls failed to defend, and last two candles specifically point for bears to want to go lower at least 20 pips from structure PA view.
http://prntscr.com/4oyhrd
At moment structure doesnt give good short entries considering risk so i will wait a bit before shorting, but here should be two SL areas for shorts (higher area is bull turn area, so thats point where buyers could take control):
http://prntscr.com/4oyirj
  • #16,152
  • Sep 21, 2014 12:13pm Sep 21, 2014 12:13pm
Now, my target on EU is always no more then 30 pips. On GBP 60 and JPY 250 in this period of the year, (Sept - Dec).

Technical view - 2750 it s "already" hit because of the way how Euro just close the week. Tell us that Big Shark has no need to protect the profit. This pattern put Monday in in direct sell to 2750. Can happen Monday at Mario speech or before. From there it s difficult to see, maybe consolidation all the week on a 125 pips range. 2687 to 2937 till ECB Conference. 10 days for triangle.
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  • #16,153
  • Sep 21, 2014 1:06pm Sep 21, 2014 1:06pm
Thank you very much, friends.

Great analyses and opinions
  • #16,154
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:31am Sep 22, 2014 12:31am
Since 2995 the wave sequence may be


1-2-3-4-5 and now in bigger retracement


or

1-2-3-4- and now in subwave 4 of wave 5

or

1-2-1-now in 2

or

ending diagonal 1-2- and now in wave B up of wave 3


or

1-2-3- and now in wave C of ABC-flat up of wave 4


LOL


too much headache on a Monday morning
  • #16,155
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:57am Sep 22, 2014 12:57am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...ic%20rates.jpg

Chart Of The Day: 150 Years Of Global Monetary Policy
  • #16,156
  • Sep 22, 2014 4:41am Sep 22, 2014 4:41am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} All going as planned, GCAD, USD and AJ all reached nearby sup-dem targets, just update to charts: http://prntscr.com/4oa810 http://prntscr.com/4oa8ca http://prntscr.com/4oa8jd http://prntscr.com/4oa998 A very nice setup on GJ, we have very tight area if broken lower could offer good shorts, or possibly shorts higher. SLs have to be either very big above H4 high or very tight on M5 highs as anything in between makes no sense as its simply consolidation/builddown zone. http://prntscr.com/4oacko...
All calls done. AUD weakened as posted, broken trough temporary bottoms, GJ went higher 60 pips on break of upper posted key level, EU and Gold both lower /consolidating, still bearish, UJ is the only one not yet fully breaking trough, but its building it. AUDNZD has now reached my second target from previous posts.

CJ wants to go higher, no area to take entry here, but it should go up:
http://prntscr.com/4p6orm

We have now key area on AUDNZD tested, if that fails it should go lower more, if it holds it should be nice bounce, will long if it holds:
http://prntscr.com/4p6p2d

In any case AUD wants to go lower , bulls failed twice to defend daily. However current 15 pips distance will determine if we will bounce or just go EURUSD style:
http://prntscr.com/4p6pd1

Will be longing this one from M5 whatever good it gives, GCAD:
http://prntscr.com/4p6poy

GBP has gained significant strenght back, it wants to go now further higher, maybe with exception of GU where dollar is stronger.

ECAD, fbo or not, up if confirmed, otherwise more down
http://prntscr.com/4p6q7j

UCAD long area:
http://prntscr.com/4p6qj6
  • #16,157
  • Sep 22, 2014 5:37am Sep 22, 2014 5:37am
USD

84.70 was tested with good result, again no selling pressure.
I think its ready to break 85.00 today with estimated next target is around 85.40

Index reference: http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-d...treaming-chart
  • #16,158
  • Sep 22, 2014 5:56am Sep 22, 2014 5:56am
Why the USD will shine in a low inflation world
Deutsche Bank
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf DB_FXDaily (16).pdf   287 KB | 586 downloads
Bavarian Trading FX
  • #16,159
  • Sep 22, 2014 6:02am Sep 22, 2014 6:02am
Quoting Deutschland
Why the USD will shine in a low inflation world Deutsche Bank {image}
Sound good.
  • #16,160
  • Sep 22, 2014 6:34am Sep 22, 2014 6:34am
markus if i don't make a mistake today is your birthday right ?

Happy Birthday My Friend wish you lot's of green pips
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