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  • #4,861
  • Sep 19, 2014 1:26pm Sep 19, 2014 1:26pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} YHOO got $8billion from today's IPO of ALIBABA
I had 4 of those $36/$38 (one a $36.50/$38.50) bull put spreads, 2 expired today and 2 more 9/26. A pretty easy trade (knock on wood) and I'll likely be done with YHOO m/l, not sure if it will do all the upside everyone has been chattering about.

Hey have a great weekend Cecil.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,862
  • Edited 4:43pm Sep 19, 2014 4:31pm | Edited 4:43pm
Well it was a phun week of trading, always fun when these big, hairy market moving events come around and put the markets in a tizzy.

Next week, though, nothing really big scheduled, in fact only the NFP on 10/3 stands out in my view towards the horizon now. So, I'd have to expect some established themes to continue: fiber strength and US equity markets upslide. Volatility may well plumb new all-time lows - UVXY was there this morning for a short while. I had UVXY 9/20 $22 short puts expiring today and that was good for a wrinkled brow. TLT made a sharp reversal today, clawed back almost $1.50 of the $6+ it had lost in the 3 weeks since Jackson Hole. I think TLT will push back some more and regain as high as $118 over the next week or so, but the late Aug $119 touch could be the 2014 high if the US econ data keeps coming in strong.

Also a couple weeks out are the Brazilian general elections, to be held 10/5:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazili...election,_2014
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,863
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:34pm Sep 19, 2014 4:34pm
on the other hand....

http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/blog...210642999.html

"Although DJIA and S&P 500 managed to close at new all-time highs this week, celebrations could be short-lived as fund managers tend to clean house as the end of the third quarter approaches. In the table...., it is clear that next week, the week after September options expiration, has consistently been one of the worst of the year. Since 1988, weekly declines average from –0.88% for NASDAQ to –1.43% for Russell 2000. S&P 500 has only posted full-week gains five times in the last 26 years."

indices all fell in the last hour of trading Friday...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,864
  • Sep 19, 2014 5:33pm Sep 19, 2014 5:33pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-...2--sector.html

"Options trading in Yahoo spiked to 5.4 times normal, with a record 1.83 million contracts traded, nearly 35 percent higher than the previous one-day record set in 2008, according to options analytics firm Trade Alert data.

About 1.26 million calls and 568,000 puts traded on Friday. The calls leading puts is consistent with the run-up into the Alibaba IPO over the past two weeks, Henry Schwartz, president at Trade Alert said."

233,000,000+ shares of YHOO traded Friday....great day for the dealers.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,865
  • Edited 6:31pm Sep 19, 2014 5:52pm | Edited 6:31pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} YHOO got $8billion from today's IPO of ALIBABA
Right. Wahoo. Whaddaya gonna do? YHOO sitting on all that cash + they still have a 16% stake in BABA. Despite the obvious pump/dump, it's hard to see how YHOO can not be going up in the coming months. Maybe after it drops back down to $38 +/- in the coming week. Maybe they will establish a dividend and reward investors ( )...? Maybe if/when they don't, they get set upon by the likes of Icahn, et al? They're a prime buyout candidate sitting on all that cash and phat real estate...

Open Interest in the Jan 15 $50 calls is at 100,000....ER's in about 4 weeks.

The story goes on for YHOO. I am looking for more share price slide in the coming week, maybe to $39 or lower, and then I will get into a calendar or diagonal spread, anchored way out to Jan '15 with $50 long calls.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,866
  • Edited 10:53pm Sep 19, 2014 10:22pm | Edited 10:53pm
Benninga's Financial Engineering lectures on youtube (6 x 2 hrs, I think) from a course he taught at Tel Aviv U. in 2011. Shalom.

Inserted Video


Samir Khan's InvestExcel site

http://investexcel.net/category/option-pricing-2/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,867
  • Sep 20, 2014 10:31pm Sep 20, 2014 10:31pm
Quoting The Fool
Also a couple weeks out are the Brazilian general elections, to be held 10/5: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazili...election,_2014
I don't think there will be much upside for EWZ before the elections. There will be uncertainty until the votes are in, or Dilma will be shown ahead in pre-election polls, or the polls will show a race too close to call, but any of these are going to weigh on the Brazilian stocks.
I am seeing implied volatility spiking, so I will sell a bearish vertical call spread on Monday for the 10/3 expiration. Probably $50/$52 for a $0.30 credit if I can get it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,868
  • Sep 20, 2014 10:52pm Sep 20, 2014 10:52pm
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmar...rrons&ru=yahoo

it doesn't seem like the drama will be over on 10/5, but will drag out to a runoff later in October, so iv would remain elevated throughout that time. I might look to do some other spreads on EWZ with expiries further out. Maybe it would be cool to do a diagonal and catch EWZ bouncing on a Silva victory, leave an opening for that upside...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,869
  • Sep 21, 2014 9:01am Sep 21, 2014 9:01am
Quoting The Fool
... Open Interest in the Jan 15 $50 calls is at 100,000....ER's in about 4 weeks. The story goes on for YHOO. I am looking for more share price slide in the coming week, maybe to $39 or lower, and then I will get into a calendar or diagonal spread, anchored way out to Jan '15 with $50 long calls. {image}
meh, not in a hurry to tie up margin on this trade until I see what's what after the dust settles.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,870
  • Sep 21, 2014 12:50pm Sep 21, 2014 12:50pm
well, stawks will just go up forever, so what's the next big thing?

http://247wallst.com/investing/2014/...ide-potential/

"....
Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) found a huge friend in Sterne Agee this week. The firm has the stock rated at Buy with a huge $12 price target. The analyst cited multiple reasons for the bullish posture on the stock, including much easier comparisons, a first-time analyst day in November, a new Yelp-type service and a very reasonable valuation. Shares were trading late Friday just below $7.

Nokia Corp. (NOK) had a solid week on the heels of a positive research call from Oppenheimer, as it raised the prior Perform rating to Outperform. What really stood out was the $12 price target. This implies that Nokia could rally by more than 40%. Shares were trading Friday at $8.64.

Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. (NYSE: YGE) may be the ideal stock for aggressive investors looking to acquire a large share position. Deutsche Bank reiterated its bullish call on the solar company this past week, and it has a gigantic $6 price target. Shares of the company were trading at $3.39 at Friday’s close. ....."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,871
  • Sep 21, 2014 12:56pm Sep 21, 2014 12:56pm
Quoting The Fool
well, stawks will just go up forever, so what's the next big thing? http://247wallst.com/investing/2014/...ide-potential/ ".... Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) found a huge friend in Sterne Agee this week. The firm has the stock rated at Buy with a huge $12 price target. The analyst cited multiple reasons for the bullish posture on the stock, including much easier comparisons, a first-time analyst day in November, a new Yelp-type service and a very reasonable valuation. Shares were trading late Friday...
NOKIA- that's good to know as I bought those NOK share nearly two years ago for under $4
  • #4,872
  • Edited 2:34pm Sep 21, 2014 1:22pm | Edited 2:34pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} NOKIA- that's good to know as I bought those NOK share nearly two years ago for under $4
shitty spreads on these cheap stock options, though...prolly not worth my time.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,873
  • Sep 21, 2014 7:54pm Sep 21, 2014 7:54pm
Quoting The Fool
well, stawks will just go up forever, so what's the next big thing? .....
wait, what? Nothing goes up forever. There are still some lurking catalysts that could break the bull market spell (the ususal geopolitical hot buttons, the upcoming US midterm elections, final tip of the taper, rumor of a Fed funds rate hike, etc). So, if you wanted to have on & maybe keep on a contrarian hedge, what would it be? If you can identify some of the names that have the furthest to fall in a correction, what might those be?

Well, UVXY or VXX calls, sure. How about TWTR? Looks to me like it could shed $20 in a really hard week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,874
  • Sep 21, 2014 8:01pm Sep 21, 2014 8:01pm
Quoting The Fool
the week after September options expiration... has consistently been one of the worst of the year. Since 1988, weekly declines average from –0.88% for NASDAQ to –1.43% for Russell 2000. S&P 500 has only posted full-week gains five times in the last 26 years." indices all fell in the last hour of trading Friday...
Asian indices down across the board, US index futures showing about a 0.5% gap down at the open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,875
  • Sep 21, 2014 8:36pm Sep 21, 2014 8:36pm
Every dog (bear) must have his day (year). And maybe that day is today?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...excessive-risk

"...the time to secure seat belts appears to have finally arrived. "
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,876
  • Sep 21, 2014 9:41pm Sep 21, 2014 9:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} wait, what? Nothing goes up forever. There are still some lurking catalysts that could break the bull market spell (the ususal geopolitical hot buttons, the upcoming US midterm elections, final tip of the taper, rumor of a Fed funds rate hike, etc). So, if you wanted to have on & maybe keep on a contrarian hedge, what would it be? If you can identify some of the names that have the furthest to fall in a correction, what might those be? Well, UVXY or VXX calls, sure. How about TWTR? Looks to me like it could shed $20 in a really hard week....
http://www.simpleroptions.com/public...d1b0470f6ef342

JC talks about some of the names that are already "broken": NFLX, PCLN, TSLA. I still think TWTR needs a break, too.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,877
  • Sep 21, 2014 10:09pm Sep 21, 2014 10:09pm
AAPL looks like it would be happier down around $75-$80.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,878
  • Sep 21, 2014 10:24pm Sep 21, 2014 10:24pm
what does twitter do?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,879
  • Sep 21, 2014 10:49pm Sep 21, 2014 10:49pm
Quoting The Fool
AAPL looks like it would be happier down around $75-$80.
FB needs to deflate too
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,880
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:57pm Sep 21, 2014 11:57pm
a bet on a volatile start to the week, will need to reassess at the open
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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