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Open Scalping Strategy

  • #341
  • Edited 9:58pm Sep 18, 2014 8:38pm | Edited 9:58pm
Quoting reeeen4
{quote} Thanks, it's been a good day!! My demo account is starting to look pretty good... 65.6% win ratio... might add this method to my live trading if I can get the win ratio up to 70%!
Think about it, a 65-70% win result on average is phenomenal... when testing I keep in mind that the conditions we are experiencing in the market are going to change. For example, the volatility is down currently and this will, in all likelihood, change in the future. So, the question is how will the strategy fair in future conditions? I always worry when a certain system is claimed to have x% success. What does that mean? For example, if its based on back-testing then it is true for the market conditions experienced of the back-tested data. IMO the success % is more like a changing estimate which can go either way.
  • #342
  • Sep 18, 2014 10:49pm Sep 18, 2014 10:49pm
Quoting griffinssoul
{quote} Think about it, a 65-70% win result on average is phenomenal... when testing I keep in mind that the conditions we are experiencing in the market are going to change. For example, the volatility is down currently and this will, in all likelihood, change in the future. So, the question is how will the strategy fair in future conditions? I always worry when a certain system is claimed to have x% success. What does that mean? For example, if its based on back-testing then it is true for the market conditions experienced of the back-tested data....

It is still good, but I guess I try to aim as high as possible... the least amount of looses the better.

I completely agree that's why when trading I try be as flexible as possible and go with the market. I'm going for what works right now, I am using all my strategies and everything I have learnt together and developing my own methods for my live account. Hopefully I can change with the market or if my methods no longer work I'll take a step back reassess and change.

This is a great strategy but on it's own I think it has it's limits and needs to be developed more. In this current market it seems to working pretty well so far but I personally think it's still too early to tell.
Learning is all about about asking the right questions!
  • #343
  • Sep 18, 2014 11:34pm Sep 18, 2014 11:34pm
Quoting reeeen4
{quote} It is still good, but I guess I try to aim as high as possible... the least amount of looses the better. I completely agree that's why when trading I try be as flexible as possible and go with the market. I'm going for what works right now, I am using all my strategies and everything I have learnt together and developing my own methods for my live account. Hopefully I can change with the market or if my methods no longer work I'll take a step back reassess and change. This is a great strategy but on it's own I think it has it's limits and...
This sounds like a winning approach to trading!!!
  • #344
  • Edited 7:01pm Sep 19, 2014 6:37pm | Edited 7:01pm
Just noticed 'strange' price action in the NY session on a number of pairs... see images below...

This looks like the 'worst case scenario' for the strategy. Some analysts refer to this as harmonic convergence of prices action. If the level to which the price action is converging is the previous days low/high (the entry) then the strategy is in trouble. There were other pairs where this also happened but they were not converging on the entry price.

EU (0 wins and 3 losses - quick, chippy price action) and UJ (1 win and 1 loss - more steady price action) : -23pip loss
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  • #345
  • Sep 19, 2014 10:01pm Sep 19, 2014 10:01pm
Quoting griffinssoul
Just noticed 'strange' price action in the NY session on a number of pairs... see images below... This looks like the 'worst case scenario' for the strategy. Some analysts refer to this as harmonic convergence of prices action. If the level to which the price action is converging is the previous days low/high (the entry) then the strategy is in trouble. There were other pairs where this also happened but they were not converging on the entry price. EU (0 wins and 3 losses - quick, chippy price action) and UJ (1 win and 1 loss - more steady price...
Hi, when in doubt do not trade, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #346
  • Sep 20, 2014 7:40pm Sep 20, 2014 7:40pm
yes, this system is good but needs testing. I only prefer 1 trade, 1 win/1loss. No adding trades yet. But will look on it
Reaction is better than Prediction
  • #347
  • Sep 21, 2014 12:17am Sep 21, 2014 12:17am
Quoting mikajap
yes, this system is good but needs testing. I only prefer 1 trade, 1 win/1loss. No adding trades yet. But will look on it
I agree, this is an important aspect of the strategy to focus on during testing. Of course, when viewing the D TF there appears to be only one entry and associated outcome. However, the strategy is really defined at a TF in the order of the scalping price targets, say 15M TF. But, on this TF the single entry signal on the D TF becomes (possibly) multiple entry signals. Actually, this requires some thought as what we are really saying (hoping perhaps) is that there is causality between the two TF events: if there is a win on the D TF. However, there is the possibility that an overall loss can occur even though the D TF indicates a win. For example, the 1st entry on the 15M TF could be a loss while the 2nd is a win and therefore the D TF shows a win. If we are only to take the first entry then this would result in a loss.

(the best time to lose is during testing while its a win - the prize being information)
  • #348
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:39am Sep 22, 2014 12:39am
Got the same thing happening with EU -9 pips (10pip SL) : the same general pattern / behavior as noted above. It's like dipping your toe in boiling hot water... ouch!

AU +9pips (10pip SL) : strong winner
  • #349
  • Sep 22, 2014 9:40am Sep 22, 2014 9:40am
Trading starts tomorrow, may there be successful breakouts

Swilliam
Profit is on the other side of your mind
  • #350
  • Sep 22, 2014 8:00pm Sep 22, 2014 8:00pm
Quoting swilliam
Trading starts tomorrow, may there be successful breakouts Swilliam
... I got the following candidates

AU
UJ
EU
EG
GJ
UCHF
NU
  • #351
  • Sep 23, 2014 4:24am Sep 23, 2014 4:24am
I tried this system only 2 weeks or so (not enough !) ... mixed results, sometimes it seems working - then I got SL's !

So is here someone with a broader experience ? At least for a continous period of some weeks ?

This thingy looks really pretty easy - it would be great to see it working in a longer run.
  • #352
  • Sep 23, 2014 5:38am Sep 23, 2014 5:38am
no triggered trades yet
Profit is on the other side of your mind
  • #353
  • Sep 23, 2014 9:16pm Sep 23, 2014 9:16pm
AU +9pips
GJ +23pips
NU +9pips

SL close to 1:1 as possible (they always take a bit more than they give anyway). All strong moves. Set and forget - I had a cooking class to go to.

Mondays seems to be always (or near enough) bad, confirming swilliam's original rule (Griff hates Mondays ). I'm keeping an eye on Fridays late.
  • #354
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:09am Sep 24, 2014 1:09am
Quoting griffinssoul
AU +9pips GJ +23pips NU +9pips SL close to 1:1 as possible (they always take a bit more than they give anyway). All strong moves. Set and forget - I had a cooking class to go to. Mondays seems to be always (or near enough) bad, confirming swilliam's original rule (Griff hates Mondays ). I'm keeping an eye on Fridays late.
there was an audusd trade. i prefer not to trade on monday(1st day) also because of low volatility. false breakouts often happen during 1st days.
good luck to your cooking class
Profit is on the other side of your mind
  • #355
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:25am Sep 24, 2014 1:25am
Quoting swilliam
{quote} there was an audusd trade. i prefer not to trade on monday(1st day) also because of low volatility. false breakouts often happen during 1st days. good luck to your cooking class
Great observation for this method swilliam - I always like to confirm things from testing.

UCHF -10pips - only gave 3pips before crashing - possible 2nd entry

EU - still looks bad - waters still boiling hot
  • #356
  • Edited 7:20am Sep 25, 2014 6:59am | Edited 7:20am
EG +10pips : strong move [London session]

EU & AU & UJ & UCHF (>6pip SL) : all worked but I was too busy [London calling]

did anyone get these or others?
  • #357
  • Edited Sep 26, 2014 6:17am Sep 25, 2014 11:34pm | Edited Sep 26, 2014 6:17am
Candidates for London open...

UCHF
UJ
GJ
EG
EU

NU - change of polarity @ entry ?
AU - might be following or crack & snap ? ... crack & snap it is ... now waiting for (possible) re-entries

NU +6pips : strong move after crack & snap : "...show me the pip-age!" Tom 'Forex' Cruise

NU & AU strongly correlated here, NU just happened to break-out at the right time-price - looking @ NY open - watching for the poker playing ladder boys...

Ok, NU looking like breaking D1 lows... dragging AU with it... done!

(note: runner on NU would have gotten +30pips ~ 1:3)

Now, looking for entry...

AU +7pips : strong quick move, dragged down by NU (the best indi, like, ever!)
  • #358
  • Edited 9:33am Sep 26, 2014 6:17am | Edited 9:33am
How did everyone do?

EU +6pips : quick strong move (looks like there was 3 chances to get this) : Royal Flush ! [could have done better, on everything actually but can't be greedy - 'Market Karma' hunts the greedy]

ECHF is coming up, but running out of time - don't like the tail end of the US session once London is gone... ok, I've been triggered, it went up and touched my TP @ 5pips but no execution... hovering around entry, not looking good... looks like its double-topping with a shake-out candle (shooting star, 15M TF)... yep, classic shooting star - nope, taken out

ECHF -5pips : touched my TP, which I lowered to 5pips due to increase in risk, but didn't trigger then formed a shooting star which was comfirmed by next 15M candle that hit SL

Market to Griff : stop trading !

AU +5pips : strong move down [could have gotten 11pips easy] . Oh no!, I'm addicted to trading

ECHF - 2nd entry - stalled, could go either way - got TP @ high of previous shooting star - manual close this time, if required. Price action looks bad
UJ - coming up strong - looking for a break-out into the trigger

ECHF -7pips : hit entry then simply came back to SL

Griff sweats, knows time is running out fast...
  • #359
  • Sep 28, 2014 5:23am Sep 28, 2014 5:23am
last week was up only a few pips. (trading Demo)
Lets see next week
Reaction is better than Prediction
  • #360
  • Sep 28, 2014 5:33am Sep 28, 2014 5:33am
Last week demo results:

EU 2x tp 9, netto 18
GU no trades
AU 2x tp 5, 1x sl-10 netto 0
UC 2x tp 5, netto 10
EJ no trades
GJ 2x tp 8, netto 16

Total this week +44
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