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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #16,101
  • Sep 18, 2014 8:23am Sep 18, 2014 8:23am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Heh all done, +165 pips. I am glad i waited and placed all trades after FOMC otherwise 3 SLs would be taken, even though direction would still work.
You have been posting very good levels, chart and great precision. Well done and keep it up! We need more of your analysis!
  • #16,102
  • Edited 10:18am Sep 18, 2014 10:05am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting janpec1000
Not gona take this trade, just directional view: Gold, should break trough current low http://prntscr.com/4ny2bs
Gold drop done, 50 pips drop since call. Should have taken the trade eh. Down view is now canceled as low did not break so i am flat on view. There is nothing bullish on gold but since we are in strong weekly demand zone bounces are not surprising. Gold is now on all higher TFs completly bearish, weekly at moment points for break of critical 1200-1150 area and there is nothing that can change that except some strong fundamental thing, either Ukraine (escalation or NATO membership) or more likely November 30th referendum, but since referendum is very far from now, this thing can easily break before it. In any case if NATO membership happens which i think it will i am buying any decent m5 m15 gold setups after it, and buy ahed of November 30th is rather a sure thing.

As for Scottland referendum i might not place any trades, its too close i was hoping for some more serious yes votes. Actions of capital outflows suggest yes victory and i wouldnt be surprised if current poll pre results are completly manipulated and votes show more towards yes (as UK and USA are known for vote manipulation), but if thats so its not worth the risk as there is no decent low risk entries on GBPCHF at moment, shorts would require aprox 100 pips SL, same for longs in curent area considering fakeout spikes.

Cheers workingforex, hope markets stay like as they are currently in crazy mode


Charts, not taking any more trades this week just directional update, might take UJ m5 long maybe if something good comes in next few hours:
http://prntscr.com/4nzl2i
http://prntscr.com/4nzlvf
http://prntscr.com/4nzmk4
http://prntscr.com/4nzmtb
  • #16,103
  • Sep 18, 2014 10:26am Sep 18, 2014 10:26am
USD back to 84.40 again... any opinion ?
  • #16,104
  • Sep 18, 2014 12:11pm Sep 18, 2014 12:11pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} one has to love the wave 4's they are very predictable if one has a huge short position right now, it may be wise to reduce exposure here in the 286-287 area

some people asked me what made me say/think above fat marked


well, I did not like the fact, that the drop in price stopped directly at the channel line and slowed down. Also the stopping point was in the area of the former low.

I thought, that the drop yesterday would also be a nice ABC-flat (down from yesterdays top), and that we might see in the end a wave 4 that would extend as bigger ABC-flat.

see here:
Quoting infinitus
EW on EU 4h TF so far, so good maybe we go down directly, or we get a more complex green 4 {image}

I think that chances are high now, that we are in the C-wave impulse (up) of this ABC-flat. It may find resistance in the 299-300 area again
  • #16,105
  • Sep 18, 2014 12:14pm Sep 18, 2014 12:14pm
Quoting workingforex
{quote} You have been posting very good levels, chart and great precision. Well done and keep it up! We need more of your analysis!

completely agree


and he not only does it with one instrument but with many


Jans charts and analysis is my favourite reading
  • #16,106
  • Sep 18, 2014 12:18pm Sep 18, 2014 12:18pm
nice site

http://www.sovereignman.com/
  • #16,107
  • Sep 18, 2014 2:23pm Sep 18, 2014 2:23pm
Quoting andexQ
USD back to 84.40 again... any opinion ?
Ye level to watch for it will turn dollar bear if its taken, UJ will still be driven up by JPY weakness but the rest dollar pairs are showing severe weakness to turn bearish possibly. Key levels still hold but 0.9300 UCHF and 1.093 UCAD taken should be enough to drive bigger dollar retracement. In any case Scottland referendum results in 7 hours should drive GBP big time and possibly trough GJ GCHF and GU should impact USD.

Decided not to place any trades for GBP ahead of results.
  • #16,108
  • Sep 19, 2014 1:45am Sep 19, 2014 1:45am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} some people asked me what made me say/think above fat marked well, I did not like the fact, that the drop in price stopped directly at the channel line and slowed down. Also the stopping point was in the area of the former low. I thought, that the drop yesterday would also be a nice ABC-flat (down from yesterdays top), and that we might see in the end a wave 4 that would extend as bigger ABC-flat. see here: {quote} I think that chances are high now, that we are in the C-wave impulse (up) of this ABC-flat. It may find resistance in the 299-300...

I may point now to another possibility:

the green wave 5 may develop as an ending diagonal

or, also valid right now

we have seen a very deep retracing (62%) wave 4 of green 5 (is a bit unusual)


Anyway: we are close to the temporary end of the down-move.

I would not lean out of the windows too far for shorts right here (especially for longer term swings)


now I look for targets around
2808
2724
2588
for the green 5 of red 3 to conclude


Quoting infinitus
{quote} now at lower channel line of long lasting channel now Ilook for targets around 2808 2724 2588 for the green 5 of red 3 to conclude {image}
  • #16,109
  • Sep 19, 2014 1:47am Sep 19, 2014 1:47am
Dimitris view

http://www.fxservice.com/analytics/w...september-2014
  • #16,110
  • Sep 19, 2014 5:00am Sep 19, 2014 5:00am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Gold drop done, 50 pips drop since call. Should have taken the trade eh. Down view is now canceled as low did not break so i am flat on view. There is nothing bullish on gold but since we are in strong weekly demand zone bounces are not surprising. Gold is now on all higher TFs completly bearish, weekly at moment points for break of critical 1200-1150 area and there is nothing that can change that except some strong fundamental thing, either Ukraine (escalation or NATO membership) or more likely November 30th referendum, but since referendum...
All calls done. AUD is still staying on same view. Didnt manage to take UJ long as i was away.

GJ meanwhile has badass daily pin, JPY and AUD are very weak, even though there were strong retracements on JPYs there are no signs of any serious weakness yet.

New charts, not taking any more trades this week, just directional calls:
http://prntscr.com/4o8697
http://prntscr.com/4o86ml
http://prntscr.com/4o86zg
http://prntscr.com/4o875n
  • #16,111
  • Sep 19, 2014 5:45am Sep 19, 2014 5:45am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} It passed 84.70 with ease... LOL
This easy passed occur maybe because many big player withdrew from market yesterday.


Quoting andexQ
USD currently is looking for upper boundary, might stuck between 84.50 to 84.70 area for a while..
Here we are now,
atm. I'm not taking any stance waiting this range break to one direction.. but probably to the up-side.
  • #16,112
  • Sep 19, 2014 9:43am Sep 19, 2014 9:43am
USD
  • #16,113
  • Edited 10:09am Sep 19, 2014 9:58am | Edited 10:09am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} All calls done. AUD is still staying on same view. Didnt manage to take UJ long as i was away. GJ meanwhile has badass daily pin, JPY and AUD are very weak, even though there were strong retracements on JPYs there are no signs of any serious weakness yet. New charts, not taking any more trades this week, just directional calls: http://prntscr.com/4o8697 http://prntscr.com/4o86ml http://prntscr.com/4o86zg http://prntscr.com/4o875n
All going as planned, GCAD, USD and AJ all reached nearby sup-dem targets, just update to charts:

http://prntscr.com/4oa810
http://prntscr.com/4oa8ca
http://prntscr.com/4oa8jd
http://prntscr.com/4oa998
A very nice setup on GJ, we have very tight area if broken lower could offer good shorts, or possibly shorts higher. SLs have to be either very big above H4 high or very tight on M5 highs as anything in between makes no sense as its simply consolidation/builddown zone.
http://prntscr.com/4oacko

As for EU and Gold there is nothing to add but to say all still bearish and bearish. It will take very big move to change that or to form good bottom with low risk longs.
  • #16,114
  • Sep 19, 2014 10:06am Sep 19, 2014 10:06am
Honestly it is open if they drive this buddy down to 14 or up to 64, I really donīt know.

If we should reach 1.27x or lower I do not think this can be done this week.
  • #16,115
  • Sep 19, 2014 10:39am Sep 19, 2014 10:39am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...falling-prices

Look at chart of silver ETF holdings. For those who still dont believe that current real gold price is above 10.000 USD and silver above 70 USD just look at chart.
Compare USD nominated gold/silver price since 2006-2014 and ETF (x100 increase)/naked shorts+derivates (13 trillion)/physical gold acumulation (5-10 k tons not counted into demand) (China, India and Russia only to avoid double counting) and devide that by price increase since 2006 which is aprox few times, and you will get current real prices of those metals at numbers way above 10k per gold obviously. I have been speaking to some economists who think that this is not possible, but then again, they have no clue about financial markets as economy thought in economic universe is dinosaur knowledge, with drops of modernism and books that teach collapse of euro 10 years ago and growth of all macroeconomic levels just based from CPI and GDP numbers that are as real as Tooth fairy. Beh.
  • #16,116
  • Sep 19, 2014 10:47am Sep 19, 2014 10:47am
Quoting CandleStar
Honestly it is open if they drive this buddy down to 14 or up to 64, I really donīt know. If we should reach 1.27x or lower I do not think this can be done this week.

Hi CandleStar,

It seem today movement is just for gauging strength/weakness from both side and that atm. USD is gaining upper hand.
As for the real move itself maybe occur next week... Cheers.
  • #16,117
  • Sep 19, 2014 11:11am Sep 19, 2014 11:11am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Hi CandleStar, It seem today movement is just for gauging strength/weakness from both side and that atm. USD is gaining upper hand. As for the real move itself maybe occur next week... Cheers.
If i may add todays moves are not just battle in between zones, but full setup for next weeks move higher for dollar. Important key levels were defended already left behind, decided today not next week. Only a very strong bear move in dollar could change things around, which is unlikely.
  • #16,118
  • Sep 19, 2014 11:20am Sep 19, 2014 11:20am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} If i may add todays moves are not just battle in between zones, but full setup for next weeks move higher for dollar. Important key levels were defended already left behind, decided today not next week. Only a very strong bear move in dollar could change things around, which is unlikely.

Ah I see... you're thinking about GAP on monday, right?
Yeah it could be.
  • #16,119
  • Sep 19, 2014 11:44am Sep 19, 2014 11:44am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Ah I see... you're thinking about GAP on monday, right? Yeah it could be.
Actually no i mean simply the moves that were done in last 24 hours are definitive moves that will-have decide next weeks dollar strenght to most likely break trough current established strong supply. Gap doesnt matter as long as it is bellow 30-50 pips big which is very unlikely for dollar gaps to be that big. All i am saying even though we are still testing strong supply on dollar trough UJ, UCAD, UCHF technically looking from structural view dollar will break those next week from what structures tell me and push all those dollar pairs higher. This means further weakness in EU and as you can see demand is already failing on EU and bottom is no where near perfect bottom even though structure is double bottom, its all about strategic view of bottom structure, and comparing that to consolidated structure of USDCHF its clear there is another buildup there.
  • #16,120
  • Sep 19, 2014 12:07pm Sep 19, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Actually no i mean simply the moves that were done in last 24 hours are definitive moves that will-have decide next weeks dollar strenght to most likely break trough current established strong supply. Gap doesnt matter as long as it is bellow 30-50 pips big which is very unlikely for dollar gaps to be that big. All i am saying even though we are still testing strong supply on dollar trough UJ, UCAD, UCHF technically looking from structural view dollar will break those next week from what structures tell me and push all those dollar pairs...

Ok, thanks Jan
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