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What is a good way to tell if a trend still has momentum?

  • #61
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:30am Sep 15, 2014 5:30am
Quoting nasir.khan
{quote} sounds very logical but its not that simple, specially for trading forex. Markets (price) are always forward looking, they discount the possibilities of the future not the present fundamentals. So in that way your would be lagging just like any technical indicator. For example the current USD rally. USD is trending hard cause of the expected rate hike that is atleast 6 months ahead of us. So market is discounting that event now but when the actual rate hike comes (if it does) i dont think that usd would have the same momentum at that time....
ok, compare your answer with what the Euro has done SINCE the rate change...
tradewith60
  • #62
  • Edited Sep 18, 2014 2:18am Sep 17, 2014 11:10pm | Edited Sep 18, 2014 2:18am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} ok, compare your answer with what the Euro has done SINCE the rate change...
It was unexpected so it does not come into the scope of my post, there are always unexpected events like natural disasters, political and geo unrest etc that nobody can price in and market then has to price them in minutes/hours.
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  • #63
  • Sep 18, 2014 8:40am Sep 18, 2014 8:40am
Quoting nasir.khan
{quote} It was unexpected so it does not come into the scope of my post, there are always unexpected events like natural disasters, political and geo unrest etc that nobody can price in and market then has to price them in minutes/hours. .
that is your belief - everyone else has been blatantly dumping Euro and making easy money - that fact is clear to see on the chart
tradewith60
  • #64
  • Sep 18, 2014 11:22am Sep 18, 2014 11:22am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} that is your belief - everyone else has been blatantly dumping Euro and making easy money - that fact is clear to see on the chart
Charts? thought we were discussing fundamentals.

Thats not what you said in your original post, thats not what we were discussing.

I pointed out the flaw in your theory you failed to correct me or addressed the points i made instead you said told me that's what you believe.

If i am wrong that markets are not forward looking than why did euro started the fall in May-July when interest rates were lowered on 4th September? What was the reason for the fall. Fed have not raised interest rates yet so why is Usdjpy rallying then?

If the reason behind those moves was not the expectations of monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB (which was the result of consistent US eco data) then please tell me what was it?

Why did GBP gaped down at the opening this week? Scottish poll results were not out yet, was it not just the expectation of a yes vote outweighing the no vote?

Let make my point again, Price direction is not dependent upon what the current fundamentals are (which is inverse of you'r original post) but what they could be in the future.
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  • #65
  • Sep 21, 2014 1:23pm Sep 21, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting nasir.khan
{quote} Charts? thought we were discussing fundamentals. Thats not what you said in your original post, thats not what we were discussing. I pointed out the flaw in your theory you failed to correct me or addressed the points i made instead you said told me that's what you believe. If i am wrong that markets are not forward looking than why did euro started the fall in May-July when interest rates were lowered on 4th September? What was the reason for the fall. Fed have not raised interest rates yet so why is Usdjpy rallying then? If the reason...
I made my point that I disagree with you, repeating yourself is pointless but thanks anyway and good luck.
tradewith60
  • #66
  • Sep 21, 2014 2:25pm Sep 21, 2014 2:25pm
i think this is where candlestick formations(which nobody uses) comes to help in knowing if trend still has steam.for instance seeing a doji at a resistance level i would be getting read to short for a decent retrace.
  • #67
  • Sep 8, 2025 1:35pm Sep 8, 2025 1:35pm
Quoting Ponzi Jr
Can anyone suggest an effective way of telling whether a trend is likely to still have momentum behind it? A way to tell whether there is still a heavy imbalance between buyers and sellers?
Join this thread
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...trend-momentum
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Dollarchester
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  • #68
  • Sep 8, 2025 9:11pm Sep 8, 2025 9:11pm
Indicators like RSI and MACD can help for that.
  • #69
  • Sep 9, 2025 3:51am Sep 9, 2025 3:51am
Use TREND MOMENTUM indicator
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Dollarchester
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  • #70
  • Last Post: Sep 9, 2025 3:22pm Sep 9, 2025 3:22pm
Sell XAUUSD tp @3544
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Dollarchester
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