Technical Analysis Fallacy

pee fingers nervous.
both ends could be tested. we'll see.

but since have big pool caught with the usd maybe duck pools may surface this week.
My scouts still stuck out there although have lots bandages, I cannot think yet.
So best i rest until i can.


regards

maybe she should have thought about that before she had a baby!! or learned how to use contraceptives!

if she need to 坐月子 then maybe have her mother flown out sooner?? or have the baby born in taiwan, what country is she in, scotland??

maybe that's the mother in law? lol.

it is just a bad commercial.. i mean c'mon TC Bank who's "real story" is that based off of... that's why i dont use them lol

my apologies for my language i was just trying to be in character..

rest well chief.... i did ok again.....


V

Reflection on the Housing Market: Seven Years After the Fall
By Karl E. Case
For the last dozen years we have shed many tears
Living through a recession
The world was broke and it was not a joke
When we talked of another depression
Fifteen million without a job
Foreclosures and banks that fail
401k’s became 201k’s
And everything’s up for sale
How could it be? What didn’t we see
That led to all of this trouble?
There is little doubt that the proximal cause
Was a bursting housing bubble
But other than that who can we blame?
And what do they lament?
Millions of people contributed to
This hundred year event

For me it began in ’76
With a house on Cleveland Road
At 54 thousand, I thought it a lot,
For a small three-bedroom abode
But 10 years later that very same house
Would sell for five times the price
I was glad that I bought … I remember the thought
“This may not be fair but it’s nice”

In Boston alone, that boom created
100 billion in wealth
We spent more, saved less, and I have to confess
It was good for our mental health
We had to know that it couldn’t go on
Someday prices would fall
We knew there were risks – to ourselves and our fiscs
If those prices were ever to stall

It all began in 2001
911 … the dot.com bubble
The Fed had to act because of the fact
A recession would mean big trouble
So the Fed Funds Rate, sitting just below eight
Was cut to under two
And you had to know with rates so low
That a refi boom would ensue

The volume of mortgages written back then
Stunned imaginations
In a single quarter in 2003
A trillion in originations!
But something happened late that year
That caused long rates to rise
And that was the end of the refi boom
It came as quite a surprise

With refi’s gone so were big fees
But banks still had money to lend
And the search for buyers to fill the gap
Seemingly had no end
The Fed kept pumping through 2005
To keep short rates very low
With no sight of inflation across the nation
The target was simply to grow

Of course the key for all to see
Was a robust housing market
Buyers could borrow lots of cash
And a house was a good place to park it
A summer home … a new big house
No one seemed to care
Homes were made of bricks and land
The value would always be there

It didn’t matter what rate you paid
Or what you made in a year
For a while liquidity led to stupidity
“Just sign and see the cashier”
High LTV’s and Option ARMs
Negative Am’s and more
2-28’s with teaser rates
And ridiculous Fico scores

Competition was the force
That made the music play
As long as prices didn’t fall
Everything was OK
People could always sell their homes
For more than they had paid
That kept foreclosures and defaults low
And lots of money was made

Fannie and Fred were always ahead
Then Countrywide got in the fray
Then Lehman and Merrill and Goldman Sachs
Couldn’t be kept away
You can guess that MBS
Helped make the trading brisk
Investors, thought that the paper they bought
Was traunched with well measured risk

To that add leverage and default swaps
And then house prices fell
The intercept shift was very swift
And that was the closing bell
The very first city to see the drop
Was Boston in 2006
Then one by one they began to slip
Leaving us in a fix

We tried the tax credit which seemed to work
For a few months the markets came back
But when it expired the markets got mired
Resuming their downward track
The inventory of unsold homes
Still continued to grow
And we’re hardly building any new homes
With starts at a 50-year low

A number of problems remained as risks
As we wait for markets to turn:
The number of loans that still need to be marked
Is making stomachs churn
Twelve million who want to work
Don’t have jobs today
And slow is the pipeline of loans in default
Since no one wants to pay

In the longer run a lot depends
On the rate of household formation
That depends in part of course
On the rate of immigration
It also matters what kids do
Like living with Mom and Dad
Or doubling up till they get a job
To pay for their very own pad

For a while there was talk of a double dip
The recovery was in a stall
Consumers were down and beginning to frown
Jobs hadn’t come back at all
The Euro was falling, the banks were appalling
As we wallowed in bad sovereign debt
Europeans were asking aloud
Really … how bad can it get?

The guys at the Fed have repeatedly said
That their mandate includes employment
But with rates at zero no one’s a hero
No weapons are left for deployment
QE1 was lots of fun
Then along came QE2
We did the “twist” and we took on more risk
Not knowing just what they would do

So now we come to the end of this ode
Without much to say for certain
I hate to say, that’s where we are
Not beginning nor final curtain
The truth of the matter at the end of the day
Is that markets will make you humble
Just when you think that it’s time for a drink
They will turn and fortunes will crumble

That free markets work to provide what we want
Is a notion that’s not in dispute
The problem is that once in a while
Markets overshoot
And when they do in a market so large
A lot of people feel pain
In the blink of an eye many gave back
What it took 10 years to gain (comment : how true !)

Among those who are getting the blame
A few deserve to be flayed
But a forecast can only be judged against
What we knew at the time it was made
Sometimes the future is like the past
And sometimes it is not
But when it comes to what we know
The past is all we’ve got

Of course there is greed and there is a need
For moral hazard and rules
And for figuring out the effectiveness
Of the new financial tools
Politicians, of course, are starting to shout
That they want more retribution
It’s better, I think, if they used their time
Helping to find a solution.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/karl-...#ixzz3DcygHTiS

update/edit:
my previous post keeps disappearing, so i will attempt to repost it here at the top of this post...

the previous post explains the math behind my trades, so i think it quite important.

following is my previous post:

greetings forex factory.

technical analysis is perhaps not a fallacy.

some of the amateurs that approach this business with a less than
professional attitude and/or a dont look back mentality is what
creates this imagined fallacy.

too many people play a weak game and then run around crying that
the game is rigged and they insist that the game can not be beaten.

i am not impressed with a weak approach to this very serious business of banking.
currency trading is actually the most potentially profitable
business in the entire world, no business has more potential to
produce more profit as does the trading of international currency
transfer imbalances.

every single indicator that i see in any forum is based on some
kind of moving average nonsense and is never based upon anything
that is original and or creative.

my work is much different.

the following two numbers describe a very perfect arbitragesituation.

eur=-371.92
gbp=-355.08

the eur is now at -371 and the gbp is at -355, approximately.

the eur position is LESS THAN the gbp position, so i will BUY theeur against the gbp.

the gbp position is GREATER THAN the eur position, so i will SELLthe gbp against the eur.

having said that, i am currently playing this position with thepedal thru the floor..

ps.. the red line at the 0.79282 is either my target for theeurgbp or it is twice my target... i cant tell yet.

please enjoy the show.

refreshments will be served later.

much later.

i do not want everybody here to get all mad when i take all of the bank's money.

so suck it up.




------------------------------------------------------------------

and now, my second arbitrage example:

gbp: +463.50
jpy: +481.39

based upon the above two numbers, i am playing the gbpjpy as a buy.

target price is up.

thank you
,
,
update: the new values for this pair are now:
gbp: +501.22
jpy: +525.12

the new values show that this pair is bubbling under the surface and is about to go flying thru the ceiling.

am i really serious about this?

about as serious as a nice batch of mississippi mudcakes.

hang on now, y'all..

hello.
Why are you starting new topic?
Whoever said Technical Analysis is a fallacy?
You seems the only one here saying for now.

Have you read this thread yet?
Seem english should be your mother tongue. Sure you able read proper?
You sure you can analyse and trade profitabilly? sure?

by the way, welcome, you're new.
I no mean kick you anywhere, but just wanted check if you read proper.
i sometime spell badly, would you hold that against me?

welcome again.

regards

Do you understand what the ops of arbitrage is in practise?
What you said about it being PERFECT ARBITRAGE.
now thats a fallacy.

read thread and think about it.

But if you said that its perfct ab for you, then i cannot disagree. Is your risk.
but thats just you, not me.
maybe if you read a few pages from thread you may understand why.


regards

RAWTruth, excessive exzuberance, was what greespan said.
Well not every body is paining.
If you know how to trade, would be opportunities.
Opportunity screw the masses for their productivity.
Someone's got to pay for the lunch.
There ain't no free lunches.
lets try pass the bill to the 3rd world, they not so bright.

come think about it, they trying make me pay the bill.
cos i supported Euros.
but nevermind, i just need wait for chance pass em back the bill+ interest.
Of course but if they decided to do away with the euro, then i eat humble pie.
Then i just have to wait covert the euro into DMK, just like the ostmarks.
Of course haircut is necessary.

regards

ya ya big questions , withdraw or deposit.
very hard to think about that while moving.
some peeps like rub with rubber, some like just cross out with their pencils.

eeer you deal with your own ego.
Nothing do with us here.
Here we traders, not politicians.

I not know who has the bigger one, just let them battle it out.

for me, the clip was story a woman's travel log.
didn't mattered to me if the Bank of north pole sponsored it's making.
or if the traveller was pink, purple or peach. I am not racist.

regards

ok nvm, i think maybe its from the video

me? i only have outsider info, so you guys can visit me at the coffee shop oh.. and my facvorite cake? definitely not the free black bean rice cake

is yam cake, can order from coffee shop

SNB has guts, no adjustment to monetary policy. i wonder why they would want buy euro as this juncture where euro is in a mess to support eurchf 1.2 cap. and may i ask why they call it a cap instead of floor leh? 1.2 eufchf is at bottom leh.

yes they very determined peg the CHF to europe.
Is their liife line, otherwise where going send all the gold chocolate bars leh.


How you gonna trade a pegged currency , my friend.

regards

very swee hor.

Ya ok , you want me spell it out, i'll spell it out.
Is no secret.

I hope some bastards fry so badly in the markets that they go down so deep that they begin pray for some kindness in world help them.
Then maybe they learn lesson about their ego.
Problem is such peeps may never be able live proper again , pass on the messages.

I sometimes gets thoughts, is very counterproductive show peeps how to survive in the markets.
Only that i thought i wanted leave my research behind for some deserving peeps develop.
Maybe these all not getting to the right peeps.I don't know. Anyway I let God decide.

You peeps chose your own destiny.

regards

Dear fti,
i am sure you did help many to survive the markets ...
Whether they deserve to survive ...
Whether they deserve the profits ...
Whether they deserve to continue surviving is entirely up to them ... just as you said it would be ...
i'm not sure if i am deserving, but i am indeed thankful.

Chief,

How r u doing...

V

maybe you no need worry toomuch about her.
maybe you should have thought carefully before trading the baby.
or learned use contraceptives in leverage uses.

maybe with your predictive, know all and know future mindset,
maybe you shouldn't be trading.

I think they mentioned venezuala, maybe if you had paid attention instead of being blinded by racisism.
scotland is place where they having referendum if going to stay in GB or not.

maybe maybe.

maybe you give thanks you never worked my room.
because i detect this kanda mindset, it no matters if you million$ performer, i will never risk on you.
Even if you changed. I would be watching you like a eagle.
1st sign of relapse and i will pull book from under you.

The woman?
she made a journey.
the type journey she will never forget in her life time.
the sufferings, they no last forever, her memorys may.


This most important things i watch for when i hire.
Skills sets and Strategies I can train. Personality I cannot.
and even , i have less than <25% success rate because many change, mostly cannot handle success.
Otherwise i no need put these stuff on the internet.
can be passed on from 1 to another, like veneral diseases.



regards

ok.
but i winded down lots.
like half a leg off saddle, because i very sturbborn.

I still looking for opportunity save some very dead in water scouts.
Not a good way of a trader, but i no more doing pro. So i slacks. It can happen esp if candles burning out.

Hope all my friiends in better mind.

regards

Still I talking with the stranger, see if he will move over and let me come back.shoe bulb shoe bulb.....

I am glad.

regards

fti, your work here has helped me survived the mkts. this image is my result of your hard work of 7 years, it has been an ugly journey but i am breaking even soon. mkt has been kind to me and i only hope that the uptrend in this image will persists.

truth is that i have learned more about life wisdom from you than about trading. that alone is invaluable compared to anything else.