Macroeconomic Analysis

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about the Option-Adjusted Spread curves of BoA & Merrill Lynch for US Corporate Bond.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there are some data about the Option-Adjusted Spread (1), (2), (3), curves of BoA & Merrill Lynch for US Corporates.
These curves are financial stress indicators of comporate bonds, about contrarian to main trend of underlyings and with an interesting anticipatory behaviour.
In this post there are two OAS-indicators:
-) the average OAS of the corporate bond segments AAA, BBB, CCC;
-) the ratio between BBB vs. AAA segments.
Average OAS and BBB/AAA ratio are in logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts), with napier base (base = e).

Previous posts.
❖ June.2012 -- 2011.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
The average OAS shows a double Sell ʕ•ᴥ•ʔ Off from the top of chart in 2008/2009 (see blue trend-lines).
After this double event, the level of curve exhibits very low values of financial stress.
In the III quarter of 2014 there is a little loss of momentum, with a small divergence vs. underlyings.
Current values of OAS average are again well above the previous lows of 2007 !!!
The global structure of this indicator is stress-less.
The BBB/AAA OAS shows current levels stress-less, but well above the previous lows of 2007 (except two long deeps of ratio-format).

References.
(1.)-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Option-adjusted_spread
(2.)-http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/optionadjustedspread.asp
(3.)-http://www.riskglossary.com/link/option_adjusted_spread.htm

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact ����).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

Historical Curve Components
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...raph.png?g=IUp
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...raph.png?g=IUs
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...raph.png?g=IUt

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about the Option-Adjusted Spread curves of BoA & Merrill Lynch for US and UE Corporate Bonds.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there are some data about the Option-Adjusted Spread, curves of BoA & Merrill Lynch for US corporate bonds (1).
The segments considered are as follows:
Market Master & Market Master II;
1-3 years or 7-10 years of duration;
EU & US below investment grade.
OAS from Market Master derived from investment grade bonds (BBB or better). OAS from Market Master II derived from high yield bonds that are below investment grade (BB or below).
OAS from the US corporate 1-3 years and 7-10 years, are subsets that includes all securities with a remaining term to maturity of less than 3 years or 7-10 years.
OAS from US corporate derived from a subset below investment grade bonds (below BBB: average of BB, B, CCC and under CCC). OAS from Eu corporates derived from bonds below investment grade.
The curves used are financial stress indicators of comporate bonds, about contrarian to main trend of underlyings and with interesting anticipatory behaviours.
In this post there are three OAS-indicators:
-) Master II vs. Master (in spread format)
-) 1-3 vs. 1-7 years (in ratio format)
-) EU vs. US (in ratio & spread formats).
OAS curve (except EU/US spread: linear) are in logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts), with napier base (base = e).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
OAS from Master spread shows a stress-less curve, with current values again well above the previous lows of 2006/2007.
Actual behaviour exhibits an attempt to break the base of the main ascending channel.
If this spread goes well below the blue channel, there will be an important signal of loss of stress inside this indicator, with possible positive (bullish) impact on underlyings. A continuous permanence of this spread inside the blue ascending channel, will cause a local increase of financial stress of this indicator, with possible local graphical shock phenomena on stock benchmarks.
OAS from duration of bonds shows a complete loss of financial stress from the chart start !!!
It is very interesting the momentus loss (divergence) of the last two quarters.
OAS Eu vs. US shows the same graphical structure of the previous ''Master'': low levels of stress, but above the previous 2005/2007 values; moreover there is an interesting local divergence vs. underlying in II & III quarter of 2014.

Notes.
The three OAS indicators shows a low or very low stress levels (safe phase for financial markets).
The recent divergences in 2014 are possible local signs of alert, that need to be monitored.

References.
(1.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7707560#post7707560

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact ����).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

Historical Curve Components
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...raph.png?g=IZ3
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...raph.png?g=J0W
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...raph.png?g=J0X

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about a personal complex Option-Adjusted Spread curve of BoA & Merrill Lynch.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there are some data about the Option-Adjusted Spread (1), (2), (3), curves of BoA & Merrill Lynch for US & EU Corporates.
These curves are financial stress indicators of comporate bonds, about contrarian to main trend of underlyings and with an interesting anticipatory behaviour.
There are many OAS indicators (4, 5) and in this post there is a complex personal version, that mixes different OAS curves with a simple algorithm.
The OAS components are the followings (4, 5):
BBB vs. AAA of US comporate bonds;
EU vs. US below investment grade.
Market Master vs. Market Master II segments;
1-3 years vs. 7-10 years duration segments;
OAS from US corporate derived from a subset below investment grade bonds (below BBB: average of BB, B, CCC and under CCC). OAS from Eu corporates derived from bonds below investment grade.
OAS from Market Master derived from investment grade bonds (BBB or better). OAS from Market Master II derived from high yield bonds that are below investment grade (BB or below).
OAS from the US corporate 1-3 years and 7-10 years, are subsets that includes all securities with a remaining term to maturity of less than 3 years or 7-10 years.
The single couples of OAS are in spread-format and in logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts), with napier base (base = e).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
☒ The graphical elements are as follows:
-) The main trend of this complex curve is bearish, because of the break of the main ascending rectangle (bold-blue) in 2014 !!!
-) the loss of points of current descending phase (from 2009) > of the previous descending phase (see two red descending rectangles).
-) The secondary trend, marked with green rectangle, shows a complete descending status of curve.
-) The RED rectangle (hard bearish slope) shows a recent curve attempt of reversal (II & III quarters of 2014), with curve outside of red-rectangle and an interesting divergence formation vs. the behaviour of underlyings.
-) Current level shows a curve stress-less, but with values well above the previous lows of 2006-2007.
-) Curve behaviour inside the two red rectangles is very similar (see yellow arrows).

Notes.
☒ According to the above data and also to other OAS indicators (4, 5), there is a low or very low stress level (safe phase for financial markets).
The recent divergences in 2014 (momentum loss of descending behaviour) are possible local signs of alert, that need to be monitored.
The convergent evolution of curve inside the two red rectangles, is a second element that need to be monitored.
The anticipatory behavior exhibited at the bottom of 2007 (May for complex OAS vs. October for main stock benchmarks) shows a structure very similar to current divergence of 2014 (II & III quarters), and this is a third element that need to be monitored.

References.
(1.)-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Option-adjusted_spread
(2.)-http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/optionadjustedspread.asp
(3.)-http://www.riskglossary.com/link/option_adjusted_spread.htm
(4.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7707560#post7707560
(5.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7709484#post7709484

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful. ��Contact��.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about the next Fibonacci level of Dow Jones 30 Index.

Aim of the post.
☒ The aim of this post is to show a simple coincidence between the current level of Dow Jones 30 Index and the Fibonacci numbers (1).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
☒ The Fibonacci 22° number is 17711 [0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, 4181, 6765, 10946, 17711 (1)].
With three statistical range on 17711, we have three possible range-targets of actual ascending evolution (see chart).
Moreover, join these range-targets to the following ''cyclical windows'':
Sep.2001; Oct.2002; Oct.2007; Mar.2008; Oct.2008.

Notes.
☒ We are at short distance from the next graphical shock phenomenon of Dow Jones 30?
See also these posts on US market evaluation vs. possibles local graphical shock phenomena (2), (3), (4), (5), (6).

References.
(1.)-http://oeis.org/A000045/list
(2.)-http://www.researchgate.net/publication/264557446_Financial_Markets_Observatory_Lab._Some_notescharts_about_US_stocks_evaluation_in_the_current_financial_ecosystem
(3.)-https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264422763_Financial_Markets_Observatory_Lab._Some_notescharts_about_the_NYSE_Margin_Debt_curve
(4.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7700556#post7700556
(5.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7706839#post7706839
(6.)-http://www.researchgate.net/publication/265380356_Financial_Markets_Observatory_Lab._Some_notescharts_about_a_personal_complex_Option-Adjusted_Spread_curve_of_BoA__Merrill_Lynch

Chart sources.
❖ StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀

In U.S., 42% Believe Creationist View of Human Origins.

Americans' views related to religiousness, age, education
by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- More than four in 10 Americans continue to believe that God created humans in their present form 10,000 years ago, a view that has changed little over the past three decades. Half of Americans believe humans evolved, with the majority of these saying God guided the evolutionary process. However, the percentage who say God was not involved is rising.
This latest update is from Gallup's Values and Beliefs survey conducted May 8-11. Gallup first asked the three-part question about human origins in 1982.
The percentage of the U.S. population choosing the creationist perspective as closest to their own view has fluctuated in a narrow range between 40% and 47% since the question's inception. There is little indication of a sustained downward trend in the proportion of the U.S. population who hold a creationist view of human origins. At the same time, the percentage of Americans who adhere to a strict secularist viewpoint -- that humans evolved over time, with God having no part in this process -- has doubled since 1999.
............ ............... ...............




Americans' Belief in God, Miracles and Heaven Declines.

Belief in Darwin's theory of evolution rises

New York, N.Y. - December 16, 2013 - A new Harris Poll finds that while a strong majority (74%) of U.S. adults do believe in God, this belief is in decline when compared to previous years as just over four in five (82%) expressed a belief in God in 2005, 2007 and 2009. Also, while majorities also believe in miracles (72%, down from 79% in 2005), heaven (68%, down from 75%), that Jesus is God or the Son of God (68%, down from 72%), the resurrection of Jesus Christ (65%, down from 70%), the survival of the soul after death (64%, down from 69%), the devil, hell (both at 58%, down from 62%) and the Virgin birth (57%, down from 60%), these are all down from previous Harris Polls.
Belief in Darwin's theory of evolution, however, while well below levels recorded for belief in God, miracles and heaven, is up in comparison to 2005 findings (47%, up from 42%).
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,250 adults surveyed online between November 13 and 18, 2013 by Harris Interactive.
The survey also finds that 42% of Americans believe in ghosts, 36% each believe in creationism and UFOs, 29% believe in astrology, 26% believe in witches and 24% believe in reincarnation - that they were once another person.
............. ................. .................




☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖ [Contact]
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I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about the Netherland 10y governative bond yield curve from 1500.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there is the multisecular curve of Netherland 10y gov.bond yield curve as showed in (1), with a local zoom post-1990.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

References.
(1.)-http://www.businessinsider.com/dutch-bond-yields-are-at-a-500-year-low-2014-9

Chart sources.
❖ BusinessInsider; TradingEconomics.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about the current price evolutions of some corporate high yield bond ETF.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there is a simple comparation among some ETF on high yield corporate bonds, in order to obtain data about the current 2014 levels vs. 2013 and 2012 levels (1).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Aim of the post.
☒ There are 9 ETF with a top in 2014 < of top 2013; 7 ETF with a little and not important advantage of 2014 vs. 2013, and one ETF (HYS) with current 2014 top > 2013 top.
According to assets levels (1), there is an important advantage of ETF with 2013 top > 2014 top.
This graphical phenomenon is in divergence vs. main & global US ETF.

References.
(1.)-http://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/high-yield-bonds/

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond [LQD] ETF.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there are some chart about LQD ETF.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

References.
(1)-http://etfdb.com/etf/LQD/

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond [HYG] ETF.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there are some chart about HYG ETF.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

References.
(1)-http://etfdb.com/etf/HYG/

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about the ratio between High Yield vs. Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (iShares iBoxx).

Aim of the post.
☒ In a previous post (1) we have seen an interesting divergence in the behaviour of some high yield ETF curves vs. main & global US ETF (tops of 2013 and 2014).
The aim of this post is to compare the price evolution of two main ETF on corporate bond high yeld & investment grade (2) (3).
The comparation is carried out with the simple ratio between HYG ETF (3) vs. LDQ ETF (2), in order to obtain data about this segment of US stock market.
Ratio curve is in two linear ema-format: simple or short term ema; long-term ema (frames: blue < red < white).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
☒ The main graphical elements are as follows-
-) The ratio curve shows the top of 2013 > top of 2014.
-) The local trend of 2014 is bearish, with a deep test of previous 2011 top levels (simple chart); moreover the curve is a little above the long term ema (long-term chart).
-) The ascending trend start in 2009 do not shows reversal, but there is a local attempt of important correction (see ascending blue dotted line vs. ratio).
-) In 2014 there is a first sell-signal on long-term ratio (yellow circle: blue ema < red ema).
-) Critical zones on the two charts are in dark-red.
-) Weekly MACD of ratio shows a descending array of key tops and a sell-signal in 2014 (yellow circle).
-) Weekly RSI of ratio shows a descending array of 2013-2014 tops, with important bearish pattern of curve in 2014, and a double sell-signals (yellow circles).
-) The key divergence in 2007 between S&P High Yield vs. S&P500 ETF, are not showed now.

Notes.
☒ Current evolution of ratio curve shows an interesting divergence vs. S&P500 from 2013 [see also (1)], but the main trend is again in bullish status and without divergence like to 2007 peak.
There are some recents sell-signals both on the ratio-curve and on oscillators (MACD & RSI); these signs are local only (short-term) but should be monitored.
A first critical event is the descending break of dotted blue line (first important attempt of ratio reversal).
A second key event is the break of dark-red zones (complete reversal of ratio).
These data should be combined with those from other bond sources, as OAS (4), and 10y yield spread Germany vs. USA (5).
Assets of lower quality are overvalued (output of money by such ETF)???
There is an attempt to reallocate towards quality???

References.
(1.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7734888#post7734888
(2.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7736506#post7736506
(3.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7736518#post7736518
(4.)-https://www.researchgate.net/publication/265380356_Financial_Markets_Observatory_ Lab._Some_notescharts_about_a_personal_c omplex_Option-Adjusted_Spread_curve_of_BoA__Merrill_Ly nch
(5.)-https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264784474_Financial_Markets_Observatory_ Lab._Some_notescharts_about_the_Gov.Bond _10y_yield_spread_Germany_vs._USA

Chart sources.
❖ StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about some giant graphical structures on S&P100 and S&P500.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there is the up-date of some giant graphical structures that I follow from 2009 on the S&P100 Index and S&P500 Index (see references: A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
☒ The main graphical elements are as follows (see the charts).
-) Giant triangle (in green: 'T') with the possible target on the rx-column.
-) Giant double cups 2000-2007-2013 (marked in gray on S&P100 and in blue on S&P500: '2C'), with the possible target on the rx-column.
-) Giant and irregular diamond structure (see references: 1, 2, 3). For S&P500 the diamond and double cups are overlapped.

References.
Leg Equivalence & Giant Diamond.
(A.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4236523#post4236523
(B.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4096232#post4096232
(C.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4746611#post4746611
(D.)-http://a.imageshack.us/img534/4600/zzzsalvi0026h.jpg
(E.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6016192#post6016192
(F.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6435132#post6435132
(G.)-http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/2057/zxykesaddaphapekampa020.jpg
(H.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6019137#post6019137
(I.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5391143#post5391143
Diamond pattern.
(1.)-http://thepatternsite.com/diamondt.html
(2.)-http://www.trending123.com/patterns/Continuation-Diamond-Chart-Pattern.html
(3.)-http://stockcharts.com/commentary/mailbag/mailbag20000628.html

Chart sources.
❖ FreeStockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about the US delinquency data.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there are some curves about the delinquency data of some business segments in USA.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
☒ The main graphical elements are as follows (see the charts).
Delinquencies All Loans & Leases (all commercial banks) shows an interesting behaviour in the phases 2000/2003 & 2007/2009. The total curves (red) shows an important increase during the tech.web crisis 2000/2003, but a monstre increase toward the top of actual financial crisis 2007/2010, with a 4.4X between last two tops. Current descending phase of curve is again well above the previous key tops (about 2X above !!!).
The commercial & industrial curve shows a pattern very different, with the two recent peaks at a distance of 1.5X. Moreover the current descending phase shows values about in line with the previous historical lows of curve !!!
Infact the ratio between these two components (''all loans & leases'' vs. '''all loans & leases commercial & industrial''') shows a Sky🚀Rocket from 2008/2009 until now !!!
The curve behaviour of delinquencies of credit cards (green) and consumers (blue) shows current levels well below the previous lows of 2007 !!! There is a overcompleted recovery of delinquency crisis of these segments.
Current values of curve of all loans of banks < 100 tops (violet) is a little above its previous lows of 2007. There is an uncompleted recovery of delinquency crisis of this segment.
Current values of curve of all loans, both all banks (red) and banks 100 tops (dotted violet) are well above its previous lows of 2007. Moreover the current values of real estate segment ​​are still very high. These 3 curves exhibits again important levels of delinquencies rates.
According to bank size inside the curve ''all loans & leases'', there is a continuation increase of strength of big bank segment vs. other banks segment; range values of the ratio is ~1.1/1.8 during 1985-1998 about, ~2.9/3.4 during 2002-2008, ~5.0/6.4 during 2010/2014 about !!!
According to bank size (big bank segment vs. other banks segment) inside the curve '''all loans & leases commercial & industrial''' shows an opposite behaviour, with peaks during the recent crisis (see 2002-2003 & 2008-2009); current values exhibits a complete decrease of stress inside this ratio-curve, with values about in-line with the pre-crisis phase (2004-2007).

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about the graphical structures of Gold [Au].

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there are some curves about the current graphical situation of Gold [Au], in order to up-date the long term chart (#10).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
☒ The main graphical elements are as follows (see the attached charts).
Au curve.
✔ The 2011 yearly candle is a giant inside (#1; #2) that contain the year 2012, and with hard bearish break in 2013 with a long red candle. A continuation-bear below the low of 2011 will cause a complete validation of this inside, with a target (695) about in-line with 2008 low (= low of violet H&S). The low of 2011 is about coincident with the first key fib-retracement 1999-2011.
✔ The total low (until now) of Gold is about 38.6% (from top 1980.8 to low of June.2013 1179.4); there is an high probability of a stop of bearish action or a false break ???
✔ The key fib-levels 1999-2011 are, 1285 (61.8%), 1089 (50.0%), 893 (32.8%) near to mid-level of 2008 (= mid-level of violet H&S).
✔ The violet H&S of 2008-2009 (#1, #2, #3) is a key structure of the previous bullish action of the Gold. The main levels are, the neck-line (1029), the target-projection (1366; see the intercept of Apr.2013, May.2013, Oct.2013, Mar.2014), the low (692).
✔ The giant monthly inside of Sep.2011 (top red candle; #6) with a bearish target (1145) about in-line with the current triple-lows.
✔ The congestion white rectangle, post top of Sep.2011 (#4, #5), with a bearish target at 1243.
✔ The blue rectangle of the Graphical����Contest triple lows (June, Decembrer, and current levels) vs. double tops (June, August) of 2013-2014, now in progress and with high probability of break of base (bearish target 925).
✔ The upper descending red & dotted rectangle, shows a preliminary break in 2013 (the first low of the current triple lows), a second attempt in the IV quarter of 2013, and a new attempt in action in October 2014. The possible bearish projection is on the chart (2015 range: ~770-650)
✔ With the exclusion of 96mo. ema, there is a complete bearish reversal of main ema: M/10, 24mo., 48mo.
M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average is a combination of the following curve (yellow-lines): sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema.
According to the above structures, the bearish pressure on Au curve is very high, with a local Graphical��Ɖetonator in the zone 1179-1144, because of these elements: a.) low of June.2013; b.) bearish target of Sep.2011 inside; c.) base of descending red-dotted rectangle (IV quarter 2014: ~1200-1150); d.) ema 96mo. (now in price-test).
Below this key-zone there are the following price-clusers:
1089 (50% Fib.) - 1029 (violet H&S neck);
924 (bearish projection of current triple lows);
893 (38.2% Fib.) - 878.5 (top of Jan.1980 of Gold Continuous Near Month Contract) - 861 (violet H&S mid level);
695 (bearish target of 2011 yearly inside) - 691 (2008 low = violet H&S low).
A first, but local only, pause of this bearish behaviour, there will be with Au curve above the mid-level of the blue rectangle of triple lows (1307) and/or above the previous target of violet H&S.
Only a bullish action above the low of Sep.2011 (1533) will cause a severe stop of the bearish pressure on Au curve, with a final stop & reversal above the mid-level of the giant 2011 yealy inside!!! This last value (1614) may be the key-price for a new switch in bullish status of the Gold, and now it a very not probable event.
Below this short view on Gold structures, there are some additional notes about other aspects of financial Gold.
Au Comex Stck Piles (AuCSP: #7).
✔ The top of '80 shows an interesting divergence in the behaviour of Au vs. AuCSP: decreasing tops of Au vs. increasing tops of AuCSP.
✔ Also during the recent 2011-2013 top formation of Au there is an important divergence with the AuCSP curve (anticipation tops of the second vs. the first).
✔ AuCSP structure from 1997-1998 appear impulsive (see blue triangular markers) with a conclusion in the second top, a little before that Au curve.
✔ Also in AuCSP there is the interesting violet cup 2007-2009 as in Au (Head & Shoulders 2008-2009) (#7).
✔ According to previous 2011 post (#7), the loss of target level of violet-cup (2007-2009) was coincident with the start of bearish-pressure on Au curve.
✔ The current curve evolution of AuCSP (2013-2014) is very divergent vs. Au curve.
AuCSP below the violet cup top will be coincident with a new increase of bearish pressure on Au curve. The current divergence of very high values of AuCSP vs. the leg n.3 of the triple lows of Gold may be the anticipatory behaviour of a (local) imminent reversal of Gold (false break of 1179-1144 or spike-test of 50% Fib.) ???
Au OpenInterest (AuOI).
✔ The AuOI shows the same divergence of AuCSP during the ''80 top formation.
✔ The recent evolution of curves (compare the two key tops of AuOI vs. Au) shows an impressive divergence.
✔ The main trend of AuOI is very similar to Au curve (see blue rectangle slope), and also the position of current values vs. ''80 tops.
✔ Current lows levels in AuOI are a little above the previous levels of 2008-2009 crisis.
✔ There is an impressive decrease of AuOI during the bearish phase post 2011, as in 1999-2002 and post-1980 !!!
Current low levels of AuOI are indicative of an important reversal attempt of Gold during this autumn ???
Au Volume, Lease Rates, net CoT.
✔ The monstre volume column is coincident with the 2013 lows.
✔ The recent price-evolution of Au shows important levels of volumes; there is a great interest on the triple lows formation (2013-2014).
✔ Lease rates evolution post-2011 do not shows panic-spikes nor big (as in 2008) nor small (see 2013-2014); this is indicative of a normal bearish evolution of Au curve and therefore not due to abnormal financial stress but to other more attractive assets.
✔ The net CoT curve (see previous posts: #8, #9) shows two impressive recent knots (see the red arrows), with the double knots of 2013 near to zero-line.
✔ The spread Commercials (= Hedgers = Au operators) vs. NonCommercials (= Trenders or Financials) exhibits values ​​more bearish of the last 10-12 years about. Also for this reason the bearish action from 2011 is the most important from the start of bull in 1999/2001.
✔ Positive spread Commercials vs. NonCommercials are present only in the phase 1994-2002 about (see chart).
✔ The current triple lows formation shows decreasing values of Commercial (see array of lows) and increasing values of Financials (see array of tops); this is a local divergence behavior.
✔ NonReportables (= Retailers) shows a net position above zero-line from 2001, with a triple lows on, or a little below, the zero-line coincident with the triple lows of Au curve.
The local divergences of net Commercial tops and net Financial lows may be the anticipatory behaviour of a (local) imminent reversal of Gold (with a spike negative net position of Retailers) ???

References.
#1.-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6608550#post6608550
#2.-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7416362#post7416362
#3.-http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&st=2008-01-01&en=2009-12-31&id=p51076203783
#4.-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5696796#post5696796
#5.-http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&st=2011-10-01&en=2013-04-15&id=p47708083850
#6.-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6450313#post6450313
#7.-http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/29128541-post307.html
#8.-http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/30497736-post386.html
#9.-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6772199#post6772199
#10.-http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/2130/zxykesaddaphapekampa019.jpg

Chart sources.
❖ FreeStockCharts; Kitco.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
http://www.metalprices.com/images/me...bg/GOLD_bg.jpg
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=088691&p=w1

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about the summary curve of Nz$, Au$, J¥ vs. the price evolution of Gold [Au] from 2000.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there is an experimental (personal) curve obtained with Nz$, Au$, J¥, in order to compare their price evolutions vs. Gold prices.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
☒ See the attached charts, and #1, #2.

References.
#1.-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7782430#post7782430
#2.-https://www.facebook.com/SalVi.SalvatoreVicidomini/posts/844096858955312

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF [IEUR].

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some financial curves of this European ETF.

Previous posts.
❖

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See the linked charts.

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about the evolution of the curves of some iShares European ETF (2014).

Aim of the post.
In this post there is a comparation among some curves obtained from ETF iShares of European countries, listed on the US stock market. Charts are obtained with StockChart PerfChart with Y-axis lock (#1).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See the attached charts. The singles ETF are listed in the references.
The ranking is very interesting!!!

References.
#1.-http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/
FEU,EZU,IEV➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...96#post7680196
FEU➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...62#post7680162
FEZ➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61#post7681161
EZU➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...56#post7592756
IEUR➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...47#post7810447
IEV➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post7592821
ESR➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post7592854
EEME➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post7592874
EWD➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post7592900
EWG➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post7592917
EWI➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...50#post7592950
EWK➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post7593009
EWL➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...59#post7592959
EWN➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post7593015
EWQ➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...97#post7592997
EWP➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post7592982
EWO➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...77#post7592977
EWU➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post7593020
EIRL➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...45#post7680145
EPOL➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post7680153
ENOR➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7681140#post7681140
ERUS➽http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7681150#post7681150

Chart sources.
❖ StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about some indicators of Gold Miners Index.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there are some indicators of Gold Miners Index (= GDM #3), in order to obtain data about this particular phase for the sector.
See an up-date of underlying commodity (#2).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
☒ The main graphical elements are as follows (see the attached charts).
✔ The ratio of Gold Miners vs. Spot (indicator about in-phase vs. underlying GDM) shows an impressive bearish trend, with current levels as historical low of curve, and well below the key-zone of 1998/2000/2008.
The ema-knot is in structural bearish array from 2011.
The ratio curve shows important anticipatory behaviours vs. Spot curve, as we can see for ratio, in correspondence of the key lows of 1998/2000 (1999/2001 for Au), and 2009/2010 (2011 for Au).
The global structure of the ratio exhibits 5 legs from the top of 2003 (see yellow markers), with a possible big-'A' exhaustion in 2014/2015. A similar structure there is on the underlying benchmark (Gold Miners Index) but with the start from 2011 (very hard slope of bear).
Current 2013-2014 chart structure, shows an important momentum loss of main bearish trend, with a price-evolution inside an interesting and descending channel, parallel to link-line between 2005/2008 lows.
This momentum loss is recognizable also on MACD & TRIX of the ratio, with a very important break of main bearish trend-line and with ascending lows (see markers).
There are some signs (not signal) of imminent stop of the main bear trend on GDM, probably in the current Autumn or the next Winter.
In order to obtain a long-term chart benchmark on Gold Miners Sector, there are also the curves of Barron's Gold Miners Index (#8; see also these previous posts: #9; #10#; #11) and its ratio vs. Gold Spot.
✔ There are also two other ratios:
ratio intra-miners sector (ETF: GDXJ vs. GDX; indicator about in-phase vs. GDM; #7; #12; #13) in order to compare the ETF on young Au-Miners vs. the ETF on mature Au-Miners;
ratio between 3X Bear vs. Bull Direxion ETF (DUST vs. NUGT; indicator about contrarian vs. GDM; #4, #5, #6).
The first ratio shows an important divergence of the bear trend 2013/2014 vs. price evolution of GDM, according to momentum loss seen above; main ema are in sell-array (yellow circle).
The second ratio exhibits the same divergence (or momentum loss of bear trend on GDM) of the previous ratio, because of topping structure with tops 2013>2014; main ema are in sell-array (yellow circle).
These two ratio, ETF-based, support the short-term annotation obtained from GDM vs. Gold Spot.
✔ The Bullish Percent Index on Gold Miners (indicator about in-phase vs. underlying GDM) is well below the 50-level, and exhibits values near the absolute lows from 2008. Investment area there is only above 20/25 points (see #1)
The key lows of 2013/2014 of Gold Miners Index (about descending) are in divergence vs. the same lows on Bullish Percent Index (ascending), with an important support to the loss of momentum from 2013 onwards (see the above ratio-curve).
Also the main ema of Bullish Percent shows a momentum-loss, but are in a new structural sell-sign (yellow circle).
✔ The spread Advance vs. Decline Index (in percent) on Gold Miners (indicator about in-phase vs. underlying GDM) is well below the 0-level, and exhibits values near the absolute lows from 2010.
Advance-Decline Index shows an interesting momentum-loss (divergence vs. GDM) during the low formations in 2013/2014, but are in a new structural sell-sign (yellow circle).
✔ The spread Advance vs. Decline Volume Index (in percent) on Gold Miners (indicator about in-phase vs. underlying GDM) is well below the 0-level, and exhibits values near the absolute lows from 2010.
Advance-Decline Volume Index shows an interesting momentum-loss (divergence vs. GDM) during the low formations in 2012/2013/2014, but are in a new structural sell-sign (yellow circle).
✔ The spread NewHighs vs. NewLows Index (in percent) on Gold Miners (indicator about in-phase vs. underlying GDM) is well below the 0-level, with a new structural sell-sign (yellow circle).
Moreover there are two very interesting graphical elements according to recent momentum loss: a.) the divergence 2013/2014 lows is very strong vs. GDM; b.) the top of 2014 is > 0 and above the previous top 2013-2012 !!!
Also for these breadth indicators there are some signs of possible imminent stop of main bear on GDM, with important evidence of momentum loss for 2013/2014 low formations (divergences).
✔ The CBOE Volatility Index on GDX shows an interesting decrease of volatility levels according to the progression of lows in 2011/2013/2014 (support to data of momentum loss); same phenomenon on the lows (descending) of volatility. These two elements are presents also on the average indicator obtained from CBOE Volatility of GDX & GLD (Gold ETF).
✔ The spread indicator between CBOE Volatility of GDX vs. GLD shows a volatility strenght of GDX > GLD, but the top of 2013 > top 2014, with an evident momentum loss and an interesting lows area in 2014 well below the lows of 2013 and 2012 !!!
According to breadth indicators, the volatility data shows important momentum loss of main bear trend of GDX.

References.
#1.-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6690304#post6690304
#2.-https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266402749_Financial_Markets_Observatory_ Lab._Some_notescharts_about_the_graphica l_structures_of_Gold_Au
#3.-http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/25208277-post126.html
#4.-https://twitter.com/SalViVicidomini/status/520579559021113344
#5.-http://www.direxioninvestments.com/products/direxion-daily-gold-miners-bull-3x-etf
#6.-http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DUST%2CNUGT&ty=c&ta=0&p=w
#7.-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6521402#post6521402
#8.-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6690338#post6690338
#9.-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6690761#post6690761
#10.-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6690446#post6690446
#11.-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6690315#post6690315
#12.-http://www.vaneck.com/market-vectors/equity-etfs/gdxj/snapshot/
#13.-http://www.vaneck.com/market-vectors/equity-etfs/gdx/snapshot/

Chart sources.
❖ StockCharts; Kitco.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
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hi guys,

i am looking for some fundamentals for copper (HG). would be great to have this in dforexfactory calendar but there is not. can somebody tell me something about copper reports - if the copper does have any?

thanks a lot

Hi


Suggest reading the below, we are entering a period where Copper Supply will just exceed Copper Demand (215k tonnes), but this assumes limited downtime and mine production meeting forecasts. My view on this aspect, like previous years of copper mining is that with lowering copper grades globally, forecast supply has in the past been below expectations/forecast.

Nonetheless, mining giants Rio and BHP have been investing heavily in this market for the past 5 years, so expect some additional supply from these major players.

Various sources suggest this excess supply in the physical market may only last during 2015 and then go into deficit as soon as 2016. Copper demand is largely contingent on China (40% of world consumption), so a slowing China may cause downward pressure. Nonetheless, the LME has quite low stores of Copper, and expect this to increase during 2015 and soak some of the demand.


http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_...l-in-2015.html


I've looked at a couple of Australian copper miners in detail, and they tend to have All-In-Sustaining Costs (including Capex and Operating Costs) around the USD2/lb range, so like other commodities experiencing a margin crunch, I can't see the long-term price of Copper to drop below USD2/lb as this could lead to mine closures and a contraction of Copper supply into deficit again.

One thing I have noticed with the Australian miners is that they have not entered into hedging despite the recent contraction in the Copper lb/USD price. The USD/AUD depreciation provides revenue relief no doubt, but it also provides us with the insight that senior management have bullish views on the price of Copper lb/USD.

I am a bit of a Copper bug, as I see it as one of the most important base metals that is increasing in demand due to the rise of electronics that is being used in cars, housing, gadgets, etc etc. The rise of urbanisation across the world will drive further Copper demand, this has been proven over history. Urbanisation in China is 50% with a target to 75% and India is only at 31% and rising.

One currency pair that is largely affected by the price of Copper is USD / Chilean Pesos, as Copper roughly represents 45% of their exports and 13% of their GDP.

Hope this helps.